I put a focus on the tiered rankings, as they give a better indication of the talent levels of each player, and where the drop offs in the top 20 are. At the bottom of the article is a numerical top 20. I changed the order of this roughly 1562 times, but in the end the tiers are all that matter, as any order inside the tiers is just splitting hairs, especially when you get to tiers three and four.

Two notable players aren’t on this list. Jordy Mercer drew consideration for the list, being ranked in everyone’s top 20. However, I removed him from the rankings as he’s currently in the majors. If he would have been ranked, he would have been in tier 4, ranking near the top of that group, right ahead of Tony Sanchez at number 15 on the list below.

Stetson Allie also wasn’t included. Five writers, myself included, submitted their own personal top 20 lists. None of them had Allie on the list. I can’t speak for the other four writers, but I didn’t include him for two reasons. First, I liked him better as a pitching prospect. Second, we haven’t seen him as a hitting prospect, and he’s gone two years without hitting, and three years since he was a full-time hitter. His status is up in the air until we see what he can do with the bat.

Tier 1

Mark Appel, Gerrit Cole, Starling Marte, Jameson Taillon

Gerrit Cole is still the top prospect in the system. Image Credit: Pittsburgh Pirates

At the start of the year the top tier in the system was populated by two players: Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Both had the upside of number one starters, and the ability to be impact players. So far this year, both have lived up to that ranking. There have been some rough outings — early in the season for Cole, more recent for Taillon — but they’re living up to the hype.

Mark Appel has the same upside as those two pitchers, although he’s not as polished. He needs some work on his command, and needs to do a better job of hiding the ball. It’s a positive that he’s got a clean delivery, but the downside is that his delivery is slow and gives hitters that extra quick look. He’s got a fastball that touches 98, a sharp slider, and a changeup which can be viewed as a plus pitch at times. That’s a good recipe for a number one starter.

Starling Marte started the year in the next tier down — not quite an impact guy, but a potential impact guy. I debated on which group he would fall in this time around. He was right in the middle of Tier 1 and 2, almost in a group by himself. I put him in the “impact” group for a few key reasons.

Marte doesn’t have a dominating stat line in Triple-A this year. He’s hitting for a .260/.318/.451 line in 204 at-bats. However, dig deeper in to the numbers and he’s showing improvements on a lot of things that were previously question marks. His isolated power last year was .168. So far this year it’s at .191. By comparison, Andrew McCutchen had a .190 ISO in his final year of Triple-A. Marte has also done well with his plate patience. He’s drawn walks at a 5.8% rate, and his strikeouts are at a 24.5% rate. That’s compared to 3.8% and 18.7% last year. His numbers this year aren’t great, but they aren’t horrible.

His main issue this year is that he isn’t hitting consistently for average. When he does hit, he goes on a tear. But he can mix in some poor stretches. This past week he went 8-for-15 with a double, two triples, and a homer in a four game stretch. He followed that with a three game stretch, going 0-for-13 with seven strikeouts. Defensively he’s great, and I maintain that he’s good enough to move Andrew McCutchen to left field. Once he gets some consistency with his bat, we’ll be looking at an impact center fielder in the majors.

Tier 2

Josh Bell, Alen Hanson, Luis Heredia

This group has guys who have the potential to be impact players, but who are kind of raw and not quite there yet. We haven’t seen Luis Heredia yet this year, as he’s been working on his fastball command and repeating his delivery down in extended Spring Training. He’ll be starting his season when the short-season leagues begin in a few weeks, and could end up in State College. That would be an aggressive assignment, as it would put the 17-year old in a league dominated by college hitters.

Josh Bell struggled this year in the early part of the season after seeing a heavy diet of changeups. That led to some alarming strikeout rates, and low numbers. He was starting to come around with the bat, hitting for a .300/.310/.450 line in his final ten games before going down with a knee injury. The outfielder had surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He’s expected back this year, and he’s rehabbing in Bradenton, but the Pirates are quiet about a time table for his return.

The biggest breakout prospect in the system this year — and maybe in all of baseball — has been Alen Hanson. The shortstop is hitting for a .328/.385/.572 line in 229 at-bats in West Virginia, and got off to an amazing start to the year with a .410/.441/.695 line in 105 at-bats in April. To put those offensive numbers in perspective, here are some other top prospects in the South Atlantic League in recent years.

Bryce Harper: .318/.423/.554 in 258 AB

Jurickson Profar: .286/.390/.493 in 430 AB

Manny Machado: .276/.376/.483 in 145 AB

All three of those hitters were 18 years old in low-A. Hanson is a year older, but is putting up similar numbers to Harper, and better numbers than Profar and Machado. That doesn’t necessarily mean Hanson projects the same as those guys (he’s definitely not on Harper’s level), but it shows that he’s been hitting as well as some of the top prospects in the game.

The big question with Hanson is whether he can stick at shortstop. There are concerns with his arm strength, although I believe he does have the strength to stay at the position. A bigger concern is his awareness at the position. Minor league errors mean very little, but Hanson has 22 already this year. That matches up with the live reports that he doesn’t look sharp on the field, with some poor relays, and indirect routes on pop-ups that have him drifting back to the outfield.

In the majors, you typically have a shortstop who can hit, or a shortstop who can field. Rarely do you have one who can do both. Hanson’s defense probably won’t prohibit him from playing the position one day, but he’ll have to prove this hitting is legit to provide value at the position and make up for his defense.

Tier 3

Robbie Grossman, Nick Kingham, Jeff Locke, Kyle McPherson, Rudy Owens, Gregory Polanco

This group is made up of guys who could be average-to-above average starters in the majors, or could be as high as number three starters.

Robbie Grossman is hitting for a .217/.315/.345 line in 203 at-bats so far. Grossman had a breakout season last year, but the jump to Double-A is the hardest to make for a hitter. It’s hard to say whether his struggles have been because of that jump, or because of his off-season hamate injury. He started off slow in April, then went on a tear in the first half of May. He then reverted back to his slump, which has carried over in to June. While his average is down, he’s still drawing walks at a 12% rate, and his .128 ISO isn’t that far off from the .157 he put up last year.

Jeff Locke and Rudy Owens have excelled this year in Triple-A. Owens has his command back, with a 2.35 ERA in 72.2 innings, along with a 51:10 K/BB ratio. Locke has added a new turn to his delivery, giving him some deception and better command of his pitches. That has led to a 3.10 ERA in 61 innings, with a 53:11 K/BB ratio. Both are left-handers who would fit well in to PNC Park. Their likely upside is strong number four starters, although they could each have a shot at being a number three, and they could put up number three stats thanks to PNC Park.

Kyle McPherson has been out all year with a shoulder injury. He’s been on a throwing program, but it has taken a while for him to return. Surgery isn’t an option, so there’s no concerns with the injury, and the fact that he’s throwing is a good sign. The Pirates are working to build up his arm strength, and get him stretched out to start again. He’s got a higher upside than Owens or Locke, but the injury raises some questions about his future.

Nick Kingham has had a few rough starts this year, but his secondary numbers have been strong. He has a 5.51 ERA in 49 innings, but a very solid 47:15 K/BB ratio. The big issue has been a high home run rate, with 11 homers so far this season. He’s got great stuff, with a fastball that can touch 95 MPH, and a curveball and changeup that can both be above-average pitches at times. He needs to work on the consistency of his secondary stuff, and eventually needs to maintain his velocity in the later innings. He reminds me a lot of McPherson, and could eventually be a number three starter.

Alen Hanson has received a lot of attention in West Virginia, and in the process he’s over-shadowing another breakout hitter, Gregory Polanco. Polanco is hitting for a .313/.372/.502 line in 211 at-bats, and leads the system with nine homers. He’s been consistent all year, and has stepped it up in June thanks to a nine game hitting streak that has him 16-for-34 with two doubles, a triple, and a homer. He’s also showing great plate patience, with a 17.1% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk rate. Polanco is tall and lean, and added some power this year after adding some muscle to his frame. There’s potential for more projection with his body. He doesn’t have the best swing, but he makes contact well and drives the ball hard when he does. He’s got a lot of speed and good range in center field, along with a strong arm. He does have some awareness issues, specifically with routes and setting up for throws after the catch, but overall he has the defensive tools to stick in center field.

Tier 4

Barrett Barnes, Alex Dickerson, Wyatt Mathisen, Bryan Morris, Mel Rojas, Tony Sanchez, Justin Wilson

This group either contains players who have strong tools and are waiting for a breakout season, players who have put up good numbers but need to do it on a more consistent basis or at a higher level, or players who have potential but have just struggled with certain aspects of their game.

The group also includes two of the 2012 draft picks. Compensation pick Barrett Barnes is a switch hitting center fielder with plus power from the right-handed side of the plate. He could stick in center field, but the power gives him the chance to play a corner spot, likely left field due to a lack of arm strength. Second round pick Wyatt Mathisen is a prep catcher who profiles as a potential two-way player. He’s got strong defense behind the plate, with a plus arm, and he’s very athletic. He also has good bat speed with some raw power. Once signed, he will become the number two catching prospect in the system.

Tony Sanchez was hitting for a .277/.370/.390 line in 141 at-bats in his second run through Double-A. At the age of 24, and in his second run through Double-A, he should have been putting up better numbers. He got hot in his final two weeks at the level, which was enough to send him up to Triple-A. His path is similar to the one Jordy Mercer took. Struggle in year one in Altoona, start slow in year two, then take off around the middle of May. The biggest concern with Sanchez is that he’s not hitting for power. In his two seasons at Double-A he combined for an .087 ISO. He improved this year, with a .113 ISO, but once again it was his second year at the level. Until he shows improvements, I’d put his upside as an average starter, with his value fueled by his defense.

Justin Wilson and Bryan Morris are both in Indianapolis this year. Wilson has struggled with his control, which is the story of his career. He has the stuff to rival any pitching prospect in the system, but his control issues lower him to this level. So far he has a 4.23 ERA in 61.2 innings, with a 62:33 K/BB ratio. He’s been slightly better since going to more of an over-head delivery, with a 4.38 BB/9, compared to his 4.82 on the season. When his control is on, he absolutely dominates. However, if you give him ten starts, he’s going to walk a batter an inning in about 3-4 of those outings.

Morris has been pitching in relief, and has been dominating. The right-hander has a 2.72 ERA in 36.1 innings, with a 37:8 K/BB ratio. He’s had a lot of success this year with a new cutter, which is a devastating strikeout pitch. He’s a late inning relief prospect, and has the stuff to be a strong closer. We could see Morris up in the majors this year, as he’s in his final option year. The Pirates will need to see what they have with him this year, as he absolutely has to be in the majors next season.

Alex Dickerson has struggled this year in high-A, and hasn’t put up the power numbers you want to see from a bat-first college hitter. He had a good week this past week, and hopefully that’s a sign that he’s breaking out of his early season slump. I don’t like to rate first base prospects high until they’ve had success at the Double-A level, as most of their value comes from their bat. In the past I’ve seen Dickerson rated near the top ten, but I’d need to see the numbers from him before moving him that high.

Mel Rojas has improved every year in the system, but he’s still more tools and projection than results. This year he’s hitting for a .283/.332/.395 line in 223 at-bats. He’s got power potential, but that hasn’t really broken through yet. One positive is that he’s hitting well lately, with a .306 average in May, and a .316 so far in June. He’s also putting up around a .350 on-base percentage in each month. Both trends are good signs. He’s got good defense in center field, so if he can add power to his game, he could become a breakout prospect.

Top 20 Prospects

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP

3. Mark Appel, RHP

4. Starling Marte, CF

5. Alen Hanson, SS

6. Josh Bell, RF

7. Luis Heredia, RHP

8. Rudy Owens, LHP

9. Jeff Locke, LHP

10. Robbie Grossman, CF

11. Gregory Polanco, CF

12. Kyle McPherson, RHP

13. Nick Kingham, RHP

14. Justin Wilson, LHP

15. Tony Sanchez, C

16. Bryan Morris, RHP

17. Mel Rojas, CF

18. Wyatt Mathisen, C

19. Barrett Barnes, CF

20. Alex Dickerson, 1B

Just Missed the List (Players who received at least one top 20 vote, sorted in alphabetical order): Victor Black, Colton Cain, Jarek Cunningham, Matt Curry, Willy Garcia, Clay Holmes, Jose Osuna, Zack Von Rosenberg.

1. Gerrit Cole

2. Jameson Taillon

3. Starling Marte

4. Josh Bell

5. Luis Heredia

6. Robbie Grossman

7. Tony Sanchez

8. Stetson Allie

9. Kyle McPherson

10. Nick Kingham

If you enjoyed the countdown and the reports on each player, you’ll also enjoy the 2012 Prospect Guide, which features similar reports on the remaining top 50 prospects, as well as over 250 prospect reports and a feature on the top four pitching prospects in the system. You can purchase your copy of the book on the products page of the site.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

6. Robbie Grossman

5. Luis Heredia

4. Josh Bell

3. Starling Marte

2. Jameson Taillon

We conclude the countdown with the number one prospect, Gerrit Cole.

Gerrit Cole was given $8 M as the top pick in the 2011 draft.

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP

The Pirates took Cole with the first overall pick in the 2011 draft, adding a top of the rotation starting prospect for the second straight year. The addition of Cole gives the Pirates one of the best pitching prospect duos in baseball, with Cole and Taillon both likely to end up in a lot of top 20 prospect lists.

Cole features an upper 90s fastball which can hit triple digits on a regular basis. He carries his velocity in to the late innings, even hitting 98 MPH after 100 pitches. He pairs his plus fastball with a plus slider and a plus changeup, with both pitches sitting in the upper 80s. Cole has also been working on a two seam fastball which has a lot of movement, sitting in the lower 90s. He draws comparisons to Justin Verlander, profiling as a future ace.

His numbers in college weren’t as dominant as expected for someone who has his arsenal. That’s due to his fastball being elevated at times, making the pitch much more hittable than it should be. He’s also been inconsistent with his off-speed stuff, specifically his changeup, which really showed major improvements in 2011.

The Pirates have already started working with Cole on some of his issues, specifically trying to keep the ball down. The changes have been minor, and the result is that his pitches have seen a lot more life.

Cole is more advanced than most pitchers out of the draft, and could start his career at the AA level if the Pirates wanted to push him. They could start him off in high-A to avoid the cold April in Altoona. There has been some talk that Cole could arrive in the majors during the 2012 season. That would require some dominating numbers from Cole, and some aggressive promotions from the Pirates. The more conservative projection has Cole arriving in the majors in the middle of the 2013 season.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

6. Robbie Grossman

5. Luis Heredia

4. Josh Bell

3. Starling Marte

We continue the countdown with the number two prospect, Jameson Taillon.

Jameson Taillon made his pro debut in 2011.

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP

After spending a month in extended Spring Training, Taillon made his much anticipated pro debut in West Virginia in 2011. The results weren’t the dominant numbers you’d expect from the top pitching prospect, but his ratios were strong, and his arsenal lived up to the hype that made him one of the top pitching prospects in the game.

Taillon spent most of his season focused on fastball command. He was hit around in high school due to elevating his upper 90s fastball. He elevated the pitch by adding a hop in the back of his stance, and the Pirates worked to remove that from his game. He had some issues elevating pitches in West Virginia, but got better as the season went on. He has a drop-and-drive delivery, with some scouts questioning whether he can ever pitch at the knees, due to that style leading to elevated pitches.

He sits in the mid-90s with his fastball, touching 99 MPH during the 2011 season. He’s still young, and could have the chance to sit in the upper 90s, much like Gerrit Cole currently does. The focus on Taillon’s fastball prevented him from using his curveball as often. His curve is already a Major League pitch, with one American League scout calling it the best in the game. The pitch was unhittable to low-A batters, and if he was given the chance to use it more often, his ERA might have been below a 2.00. He is also working on his changeup, a pitch that he didn’t have much use for in high school.

Taillon profiles as a top of the rotation starter. He drew comparisons to Josh Beckett out of high school, with some saying he was better than Beckett was at the same age. His 2011 season was about fastball command, but also about getting him adjusted to the pro life. He will move up to Bradenton in 2012, and could start moving through the system faster, depending on his results. In a best case scenario, Taillon could arrive in the majors by the 2013 All-Star break. That would require him getting off to a hot start in Bradenton, followed by spending half a season in Altoona. A more conservative approach has him arriving in 2014.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

6. Robbie Grossman

5. Luis Heredia

4. Josh Bell

We continue the countdown with the number three prospect, Starling Marte.

Starling Marte hit for a .332 average with 12 homers in 2011.

3. Starling Marte, OF

There were a lot of questions surrounding Marte heading in to the 2011 season. We had him as our number two overall prospect last year, but a lot of people had concerns over his plate patience and his lack of power. He answered both questions in his jump to the AA level.

Marte didn’t have the best strikeout rate prior to the 2011 season, with a 26.6% rate in high-A in 2010. He cut down on his strikeouts in 2011, putting up a respectable 18.7% rate. He didn’t draw a lot of walks, and some suggest that this is a sign that he lacks plate patience. Marte isn’t a free swinger, but he’s also not immune to the occasional bad swing. He makes up for his lack of walks with his plus speed, which allows him to reach base on bunt and infield singles.

He also added power in 2011, hitting 12 homers, which was more than double what he put up in the US over the previous two seasons. He’s young enough that he could still add more power going forward.

Marte will make the jump to AAA in 2012, with the chance of arriving in the majors as early as mid-season. He’s got plus defense in center field, with great range and a strong arm. His defense is good enough that he could move Andrew McCutchen over to left field. He’s a strong hitter with power who provides plus defense at a hard position to fill, making him the team’s top position player.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

6. Robbie Grossman

5. Luis Heredia

We continue the countdown with the number four prospect, Josh Bell.

The Pirates gave Josh Bell $5 M in 2011 to sign as a second round pick.

4. Josh Bell, OF

For the second straight year the Pirates ended up with a top 15 overall prospect in the second round of the draft. This time they landed Josh Bell, who was one of the top prep hitters in the draft. Bell lasted until the second round after sending a letter out to every Major League team telling them not to draft him. He had a strong commitment to the University of Texas, but he also had Scott Boras as his adviser, which raised questions about his intentions.

The Pirates took the risk and threw $5 M his way, shattering the record for the biggest bonus outside of the first round, not just in team history, but in draft history. Bell received the bonus for good reason. He’s a switch hitter who has the potential to be a plus hitter from each side of the plate, with plus power from each side. He is a huge boost to a system that is deprived of power.

In his senior year in prep school, Bell had some amazing numbers. He displayed his power, hitting a home run every seven at-bats. He was walked in almost a third of his at-bats, and his slugging percentage was higher than most people’s OPS.

Bell has the speed to play center field, but he profiles more as a corner outfielder in the pros. His best position will be right field. He’s a smart kid, coming from a family where his mom is a college professor. He’s also very mature for his age, a trend that is common with a lot of young prospects in the system.

The Pirates will probably take a more aggressive approach with Bell in 2012, sending him to full season ball in West Virginia. He could arrive as early as the 2015 season, although 2016 seems more likely if the Pirates take it slow and progress him one level per year. He’s got a huge upside, and it’s not out of the question to think he could be a .300 hitter with 30 homer a year power one day.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

6. Robbie Grossman

We continue the countdown with the number five prospect, Luis Heredia.

Luis Heredia pitched his first pro season at the age of 16 in 2011.

5. Luis Heredia, RHP

Heredia is ranked behind Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon as the number three pitching prospect in the system. He’s not as polished as either pitcher, with his skills and background being on the raw side. His upside might be higher than either pitcher, with the possibility of eventually being the number one prospect in the system.

He was the top prospect out of Mexico in 2010, and signed with the Pirates for a franchise record $2.6 M. He was a top prospect for good reason. At the age of 16 he already could throw in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball. He was sitting around 92-94 MPH in Spring Training, and touched 96. His velocity was mostly in the low 90s throughout the year.

Aside from his fastball, Heredia has the makings of two other plus pitches: a curveball and a changeup. His changeup is already above-average, which is better than most of the older pitchers in the farm system. He showed promise with his curveball this year, with good spin on the pitch.

Heredia had some control issues this year, which can be worked out as spends more time repeating his delivery. His push to the GCL was very aggressive for a 16 year old, and considering his age and experience, his results were very impressive. He should move up to State College next year, once again focusing on his fastball command and repeating his delivery.

Heredia already has a big frame for a 16 year old, and he could eventually add more velocity, to the point where he could throw his fastball in the upper 90s. He’s got the potential for three plus pitches, and has the build to be a future work horse starter. A lot of comparisons are made to Felix Hernandez if he realizes his full potential. He’s very raw, and has several years before he could potentially be in the majors, but he might have the most upside of any pitching prospect in the system.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

7. Tony Sanchez

We continue the countdown with the number six prospect, Robbie Grossman.

Robbie Grossman had a breakout season in 2011.

6. Robbie Grossman, OF

Grossman was one of the first big over-slot signings under the Pirates’ approach of pursuing prep players and buying them out of their commitments to college. For his first two years as a pro he was more of a project, struggling with his strikeout numbers and failing to put up any power. Things finally came together in 2011 for Grossman, with the Pirates seeing a major return on their $1 M investment.

Grossman had a breakout season in his second run through Bradenton, hitting for average, adding some power, and improving his plate patience in a big way. Grossman walked 104 times, which combined with his 127 runs made him the first minor league player to record 100 in each category since Nick Swisher in 2004. His 13 homers more than doubled his career totals coming in to the 2011 season. He also improved his hitting from the left side of the plate, which might have been the biggest factor to his success.

Since Grossman was repeating the high-A level, it’s hard to get a read on how good his numbers really were. He played in the Arizona Fall League during the off-season, and was one of the top hitters in the league, which was an encouraging sign that his 2011 production was legit. The downside was that Grossman fractured his hamate bone, an injury which can sap power for up to a year.

We started to see some of Grossman’s upside in 2011. He added some power, but he doesn’t profile as a guy who can hit more than 15-20 homers a year. Instead his power comes in the form of extra base hits. He has the ability to hit for average, and is excellent at getting on base. He has the speed to play center, but profiles best at a corner outfield spot, with left field being his ideal spot due to a below average arm. He will move up to Altoona in 2012 where he hopes to build on his 2011 breakout season.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

8. Stetson Allie

We continue the countdown with the number seven prospect, Tony Sanchez.

Tony Sanchez saw some major struggles on offense in 2011.

7. Tony Sanchez, C

The biggest disappointment in 2011 for the Pirates was the season that Tony Sanchez had at the plate. In his jump to the AA level Sanchez struggled with his hitting, showing a total lack of power production. He’s the best bet for a two way catcher in the system, and some might argue that he’s the only starting option they have, which is why his season was so disappointing.

Sanchez wasn’t overmatched at the plate, as evidence by his strikeout and walk rates. His problem was that he was making bad decisions, swinging at pitches that he could make contact with, whether or not those were pitches he could drive. That could be chalked up to the difficult jump to the AA level, where Sanchez would see tougher pitches.

He did make some strides on the defensive side of the ball, with the biggest improvement coming with his game calling. He already excelled in blocking pitches in the dirt, and his arm held up in his first 100+ game season, with pop times in the upper 1.80 range in September. The big issue he has to work on defensively is his throwing accuracy. He got a little wild at times, leading to a lot of throwing errors.

The question heading in to 2012 is where will Sanchez start out? He could make the jump to AAA. That would be aggressive, but it would be no different than the jump Chase d’Arnaud made in 2011 after a similar season at the AA level. The Pirates have Ramon Cabrera and Carlos Paulino coming up from Bradenton, with Sanchez blocking them if he stays in Altoona to start the year. The 2011 season was a down year for Sanchez, but he could rebound. He’s got the defense to succeed in the majors. His offense will determine what kind of catcher he will eventually become.

To recap the countdown so far:

10. Nick Kingham

9. Kyle McPherson

We continue the countdown with the number eight prospect, Stetson Allie.

Stetson Allie saw some major control issues in 2011.

8. Stetson Allie, RHP

There are two views on the upside for Allie. The first view has him as a future star closer, with no chance of being a starter. This is a safe projection, as it doesn’t require any patience for Allie to develop as a starter. The other view looks at Allie’s fastball/slider combo, and the fact that he’s only been pitching for two years, and gives him a shot at being a starter.

Allie has some major control issues, which come from his lack of pitching experience. He has trouble repeating his delivery due to that lack of experience, which led to some massive control issues in 2011. The Pirates moved him to the bullpen in the second half of the season so that he could take things one inning at a time, focusing more on repeating his delivery and less on stretching his stuff out over multiple innings.

The focus on his fastball made a lot of people forget about Allie’s plus slider. He didn’t use the pitch much in 2011, especially out of the bullpen where he was throwing exclusively fastballs. His slider rivals Gerrit Cole’s for the best in the system. In the past he’s gotten his fastball up to hit triple digits, but the Pirates had him slow things down to the low-to-mid 90s this year so that he could focus on controlling the pitch.

If you watched Allie throughout the year, you could see the change in his command of the fastball. He went from having zero control of the pitch in Spring Training, to being able to work both sides of the plate in his last outing of the season. He brushed batters off the plate, then immediately went to the outside corner for a strike.

Calling Allie a future closer is a safe bet, but it’s not accurate. Allie is a high risk/high reward project. There’s a lot of upside if he can learn how to pitch, and he’s got a lot of time to get that experience under his belt. It might be that he takes his plus fastball and plus slider and becomes a closer one day. He’s only been pitching for two years, so it’s far too early to rule out his chances of eventually realizing his potential as a starter.