Jeff Locke says he has “gotten much better” over the last two years.

Jeff Locke, let’s talk.

Heh. Rhymes.

Jeff, your pitching has played a role of significance in the Pirates’ 26-18 start and a spot in the playoffs if Bud Selig took ether and ended the season on May 21. You have pitched five quality starts in your last six outings in the last month, allowing an average of fewer than four hits per start. Combine those with your earlier starts, and you find yourself 11th of 59 qualified NL pitchers with a 2.73 earned run average. I’m not being tongue-in-cheek when I say you should be proud.

It just won’t last.

Nothing personal, Jeff. You are still 25 years old and have a long career ahead, hopefully in Pittsburgh’s rotation instead of some other team’s. You were great in Triple-A last year, and you have definitely earned the spot in the rotation you were so happy to get at the start of the year. If you continue to pitch well, there is no reason you can’t keep that spot when guys like Jeff Karstens and Charlie Morton are ready to join the team.

But your performance won’t continue to match the performance of the NL’s best pitchers. You just won’t keep your ERA below the ERA of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Cliff Lee and Madison Bumgarner. That doesn’t mean you won’t continue to pitch well, but the run-prevention numbers will start to go north. Here’s why, and remember the words “regression to the mean” –

1. You can’t maintain such a low ERA with such a high FIP. No one can.

Let’s start with the basics, Jeff. Your FIP this season is 4.47 compared to your 2.73 ERA. We know that FIP is a better predictor than ERA of future run-prevention ability. Look at it this way, the five pitchers since 2000 with the lowest ERA compared to FIP over a full season:

• Ryan Franklin, Mariners (2003): 3.57 ERA, 5.17 FIP (1.61 difference)
• Elmer Dessens, Reds (2002): 3.03 ERA, 4.61 FIP (1.58 difference)
• Al Leiter, Mets (2004): 3.21 ERA, 4.76 FIP (1.55 difference)
• Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (2012): 3.10 ERA, 4.60 FIP (1.50 difference)
• Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (2011): 2.95 ERA, 4.44 FIP (1.49 difference)

Out of the 1,132 pitcher seasons since 2000, not one starter has maintained your 1.74 difference in ERA and FIP over the whole year. Jeff, that alone should be an indicator that your ERA won’t stay this low.

Let’s look at Hellickson, who shows up twice there. In his brief career, the Tampa Bay starter has been a true outlier in outperforming his defense-independent numbers and flouting BABIP-based regression. Why? R.J. Anderson says it has been “some combination of weak contact, defense, infield flies, and park.” It all checks out. Hellickson those a crapload of changeups that induce weak contact, pitches in front of a good Rays defense, draws plenty of pop-ups and plays about half his games in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.

Despite all that jazz, Hellickson still can’t keep an ERA more than a run and a half below his FIP. And sorry Jeff, but you’re no Jeremy Hellickson.

Locke’s Response: “I don’t understand what all those things mean anyway, because the people that made them up didn’t play. I just know that if you attack and be aggressive and do what you can do every outing… yeah, maybe the hit totals have been down, but the walks have been up a little bit. It all evens out somewhere. A baserunner’s a baserunner, no matter how they got there. I don’t worry about anything like that.”

2. Your BABIP won’t be that low, even with the Pirates’ great defense.

This season, the Pirates replaced their players’ gloves with high-powered vacuums. Given there was no rule expressly forbidding vacuums, and the fruitful endorsement deal with Hoover, the Bucs have turned an MLB-best 71.6 percent of balls in play into outs.

But bad news, Jeff. Bud Selig found out about the vacuums and has banned them from future games. I had to tip off the Commissioner’s Office. Now your .224 BABIP (third-lowest in the NL) is set to go back up. Since 2000, only one starter has ever kept a BABIP that low over a full season. Can you guess who? Jeremy Hellickson? You’re good at guessing.

You have also stranded more than 82 percent of your baserunners, this year, a number just as unsustainable. You know who pulls that off over a full season? Pedro Martinez, Curt Schiling, Roy Halladay, Randy Johnson, Johan Santana, Jered Weaver, Roger Clemens and young Jake Peavy. I don’t think you will take any offense by my saying you are not those guys.

Locke’s Response: “That’s why there are seven guys behind me. I like to use them all. [The defense] is efficient all the time, a lot of speed in the outfield… You just gotta trust the guys, because they trust you.”

3. You will face tougher opponents.

Jeff, we have all had a lot of fun in May watching you control teams like the Nationals, Mets and Astros, all in the bottom quarter of the league in run creation. Problem is, they are all outside your division, and you have faced the 15th-easiest schedule of 142 eligible starters.

If the rotations holds up as scheduled (which it won’t, but play along), you’ll face the Brewers at the Miller Launchpad, the power-packed Tigers, and the above-average Braves and Giants. These teams can score runs in bunches, Jeff. Godspeed.

It’s Not So Bad!

All of this doesn’t necessarily mean you will go back to the same fringy starting pitcher of the last two years. Pitchers evolve. You appear to have a higher release point on your pitches, you are throwing more sinking two-seam fastballs and getting a few more ground balls hit toward those quality infielders.

Catcher Michael McKenry certainly thinks highly of you, Jeff, and he loves catching you.

“He knows what he needs to do, knows what he can do and he puts his trust in us,” McKenry said. “We’ll go back there and we’ll improvise and change some things when we need to, but most of the time he’s gonna attack with the gameplan he has… Once he starts to learn himself and grow a little bit, his possibilities are endless.”

Endless, Jeff! So take heart: your run-prevention numbers will go in the wrong direction. I’m almost certain of that. But you’re a young pitcher still entering his prime. You have a great defense behind you. You are showing good deception with your pitches. And you’re a left-hander in a ballpark that helps you get outs and swallows potential home runs from right-handed hitters. I think you will be okay in the end.

And sorry for telling Selig about the vacuums.

There have been a few changes. Stolmy Pimentel was added when Justin Wilson made the majors at the start of the year. Pimentel wasn’t in the system when we compiled our original top 50 in the Prospect Guide.

Jordy Mercer has also been moved up one spot to number 20 now that it looks like Bryan Morris is in the majors to stay. I’m holding off on removing Mercer until we see what happens when John McDonald or Chase d’Arnaud return. Of course, Mercer is only 27 at-bats away from losing prospect status. Either way, Gift Ngoepe would be next. That’s not an exciting player to follow for his offensive stat line. Ngoepe was there primarily for his defense and speed, and will probably drop during the mid-season rankings.

The question about Allie is something I’ve given a lot of thought to. We update the rankings a few times per year. There’s the rankings for the book, the rankings after the draft, and an update after the trade deadline. Since the post-draft rankings are coming up, there have been a lot of questions I’ve been asking to prepare for the new list. The obvious question is “where do the new picks rank?” The Stetson Allie question is definitely included. Here are some of the others.

Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon?

Probably the biggest debate for anyone will be the debate between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon for the top spot. Cole is having trouble this year, while Taillon has been performing well. I try to avoid placing too much of a focus on in-season results, since it’s easy to place too much emphasis on the most recent starts, rather than the tools, the potential upside, and other important factors. One important factor is that Cole is in Triple-A, and Taillon is in Double-A. So it would seem unfair  to compare their results this year.

That said, I’ve had Taillon closer to Cole than a lot of people. So the gap before this season wasn’t that big for me, meaning it’s not like Taillon has to improve considerably to take the top spot.

Is Gregory Polanco the top prospect in the system?

But What About Gregory Polanco?

I try to start from scratch when I’m setting up my own rankings. So I don’t start with Cole and Taillon at the top. I usually try to divide everyone up into tiers, then go through the “splitting hairs” process to give actual numbers. At this point I would say that Polanco is definitely in that top tier with Cole and Taillon. I talked to a scout a few weeks ago who mentioned that every time he sees Polanco he improves something about his game. That’s pretty much been the case. There’s not a lot to dislike. He hits for average, power, hits to all fields, doesn’t strike out a lot, and draws a lot of walks. He’s got speed on the bases and a lot of range in center field. The things he’s got to work on are more about experience, and less about his skills.

To give an idea of Polanco’s potential, Ben Badler was asked who had more upside between Polanco or Starling Marte. He answered Polanco.

Polanco RT @zasman more upside: Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco?

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 19, 2013

We’ve gotten a glimpse of what Marte is capable of this year. If Polanco has that kind of upside, and I can’t really argue against it, then it’s hard to not consider him for the top spot in the system.

Travis Sawchik of the Trib seems to have immediately become a Polanco fan, getting a Dave Parker comparison from one scout, and another scout saying Polanco has more power potential than Oscar Taveras. Two more strong cases for Polanco.

Does Alen Hanson Drop?

I wrote about Alen Hanson today, noting that his defense and his hitting have both done a 180 after his early season struggles. Hanson has been playing good defense, and has been hitting better since being benched for a few games in mid-April to clear his head. I’m not sure that he’d drop, since I don’t think that two bad weeks should play a huge impact in his long-term value. The talent and potential has been there. You can see the skills that would allow him to stick at shortstop. If he did drop, I couldn’t see him dropping out of the top five.

Where to Place Josh Bell?

Josh Bell dropped in the rankings from 2012 to 2013, mostly because other people passed him. Those other people were Polanco and Hanson. Nothing really changed for his upside. He just missed a year. Now he’s back, and he’s hitting for a .283/.360/.470 line with six homers in 166 at-bats. Those aren’t monster numbers, but they’re pretty solid. He’s also shown improvements in May with a 16:13 BB/K ratio and an .878 OPS in 65 at-bats. The BB/K ratio is a strong indicator for upper level success.

How Far Up Does Tyler Glasnow Go?

I’ve been high on Glasnow, which is a big reason why he ended up eighth in our rankings this year, even though I was the only one who had him in the top ten. Occasionally I’ll ignore everyone’s rankings and place a guy where I like him. In my defense, it’s my career that’s mostly at stake, but I do try to limit that to certain players (Glasnow and Nick Kingham being recent examples). I wrote at the start of the year that Glasnow could have the upside of Cole and Taillon. The problem is that he has a lower floor, so you can’t stick him in that top tier. He’s putting up monster numbers right now, with a plus fastball and a plus curveball. I would probably rank him ahead of Luis Heredia, since he’s further along, and only a year older. So Glasnow might end up in my top five. I thought the #8 ranking at the start of the year might have been too aggressive, but now it looks like it might have been to low.

How Far Up Can Nick Kingham Go?

Nick Kingham is also having a great season this year in Bradenton. The problem is that he doesn’t have the top of the rotation upside that Cole, Taillon, or Glasnow have. The Pirates also have a pretty stacked farm system at the top. That’s generally the case when you’re debating between guys like Glasnow, Heredia, Bell, and Hanson for the 4-7 spots. I could see Kingham easily moving past Kyle McPherson and Barrett Barnes, since both have dealt with multiple injuries and will see their value drop for that reason. From there it comes down to weighing floors and ceilings. The advantage Kingham has is a higher floor than guys like Glasnow or Heredia. Those two might have a chance to be better, but they also have a bigger bust potential due to the control issues that come with their young mechanics. Of course if the top two draft picks end up being ranked high, Kingham could be back at #10. That would be a huge testament to the farm system, since Kingham’s stock has clearly gone up.

Where to Rank Stolmy Pimentel?

Stolmy Pimentel had a strong start to the year, putting up ace-like numbers. He has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 17.1 innings. The end result is that his overall numbers are a better reflection of his upside. He’s got a 3.35 ERA in 53.2 innings, with a 42:23 K/BB ratio. He struggles with consistency, so he’s probably got the upside of a number three starter, or a strong number four. He also has a higher floor than most pitchers, since he’s got an upper 90s fastball and a slider that looks like it could be a plus pitch. Considering the previously mentioned depth, he might have trouble cracking the top 10, but I definitely see him in my top 15.

Is Stetson Allie a Top 20 Prospect?

Back to that question. It seems like it would be automatic for Allie to be a top 20 prospect when you look at the numbers. Two things are at play here for me. The first is that Allie is doing this in West Virginia. Two years ago Matt Curry was demolishing the level, and hasn’t been able to replicate that ever since in Altoona. You want to look at Allie and dream about the future first baseman who can hit 40 homers and a .300 average. But it’s a long way from low-A ball to the majors. So far Allie has been inconsistent, with a few stretches where he hasn’t hit anything. Those are quickly followed by stretches where he hits everything, including some pitches really far.

The second thing is that I’m usually low on first basemen until they reach the upper levels. The value of first basemen is almost exclusively on the bat. I mentioned how it’s a long jump from low-A to the majors. It’s a long jump from low-A to Double-A. If Allie was putting up these numbers in Double-A, he’d be an easy top ten prospect. But until that happens, I’ll be skeptical. Usually we have first basemen ranked lower than everyone else. It might be the same with Allie. I will say that one advantage he has is that he’s got more raw power than guys like Matt Curry and Alex Dickerson.

Other Thoughts

**With three arm injuries in a year, Kyle McPherson will probably drop. I really like his upside, but you never know how players will return from injuries, and whether that upside will be the same.

**Barrett Barnes has had a few minor injuries since going pro. I’m not going to say he’s injury prone yet, but with so much competition it would be hard for him to maintain his ranking.

**I’ve been high on Joely Rodriguez as a sleeper for the past few years. At this point I could see him in my top 30. That’s not a huge jump, since he was in the overall top 40 this year. It’s hard to not like a young lefty who throws 91-94, has an above average slider and changeup, movement on all of his pitches, and who has seemingly fixed his control problems.

**Eric Wood is another pre-season sleeper who could see a jump. We had Wood ranked 39th at the start of the year, and he could crack the top 30.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Top Performers: Do the Pirates Have Anything With Felix Pie?

**Top Performers: Nick Kingham Continues His Impressive Season With Bradenton.

**After a Rough Start, Alen Hanson Has Done a Complete 180.

**Minor Moves: Alex Dickerson Placed on the Altoona DL With a Concussion.

**John Sickels Releases His Latest Mock Draft.

**Prospect Watch: Pimentel Gets Hit Again, Bell and Allie Lead West Virginia Offense.

**Minor League Schedule: Morton Makes Rehab Start In Altoona.

A look at how the current top 20 prospects did today.  Note that this list doesn’t include players currently in the majors. If a player is in the majors, he will be removed, everyone below him will be shifted up a spot, and a new player will be added to the bottom of the list. Rankings are from the pre-season rankings, and links to each prospect writeup can be found by clicking the player names below. Players who weren’t in the original top 20 are linked to their player page on the site.

1. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Indianapolis (3-2, 3.75) - DNP

2. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Altoona (2-5, 3.02) - DNP

3. Gregory Polanco, CF, Bradenton (.303) - 1-for-4, 2 K

4. Alen Hanson, SS, Bradenton (.272) - 2-for-4, 2B

5. Luis Heredia, RHP, Extended Spring Training (Luis Heredia Close to Joining West Virginia)

6. Josh Bell, RF, West Virginia (.283) - 2-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI

7. Barrett Barnes, CF, West Virginia (.220) - Low-A DL

8. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, West Virginia (3-0, 2.12) - DNP

9. Kyle McPherson, RHP, Indianapolis (0-1, 19.29) – Triple-A DL

10. Nick Kingham, RHP, Bradenton (5-2, 3.42) - DNP

11. Clay Holmes, RHP, West Virginia (1-3, 5.50) - DNP

12. Dilson Herrera, 2B, West Virginia (.295) - 1-for-4, BB

13. Tony Sanchez, C, Indianapolis (.296) – DNP

14. Wyatt Mathisen, C, West Virginia (.189) – 0-for-3

15. Adrian Sampson, RHP, Bradenton (1-1, 6.94) - DNP

16. Vic Black, RHP, Indianapolis (0-2, 2.66) – DNP

17. Andy Oliver, LHP, Indianapolis (3-1, 2.61) – DNP

18. Jin-De Jhang, C, Extended Spring Training

19. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP, Altoona (2-2, 3.35) - 7.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR

20. Jordy Mercer, SS, Indianapolis (.333) - In Majors

ORDER YOUR 2013 PROSPECT GUIDE

The 2013 Prospect Guide is now available, and is the perfect resource to follow the minor league system during the 2013 season. You can order your copy on the products page of the site. Order together with the 2013 Annual and save $5!

DAILY SUMMARY

Top Hitter: Jared Goedert, 3B (.237) – 3-for-4, HR, BB

Home Runs: Jared Goedert (4), Jerry Sands (2), Jarek Cunningham (7), Adalberto Santos (2), Walker Gourley (2)

AAA: INDIANAPOLIS INDIANS  

Box Score

Result: Indianapolis 8, Pawtucket 4

Starting Pitcher: Brooks Brown, RHP (3-0, 3.72) – 6.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 1 HR

Top Hitter: Jared Goedert, 3B (.237) – 3-for-4, HR, BB

Other Notable Performers:

Alex Presley, CF (.288) – 2-for-4, 2B, BB

Jerry Sands, RF (.170) – 1-for-4, HR, 4 RBI, BB

Game Notes: Jerry Sands got the Indians off to a great start with a grand slam in the first inning, leading to a five run inning. Jared Goedert later added some insurance with a solo homer in the sixth, and had three hits on the day. Indianapolis was facing a right-hander, and Sands and Goedert have done better against lefties this year, so the homers were good to see. Brooks Brown made his fifth start of the year. He has a 4.56 ERA in 23.2 innings, with a 14:6 K/BB ratio. This was the first time he went longer than five innings, and the second time he went longer than four innings.

AA: ALTOONA CURVE  

Box Score

Result: Reading 6, Altoona 3

Starting Pitcher: Stolmy Pimentel, RHP (2-2, 3.35) – 7.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR

Top Hitter: Adalberto Santos, 3B (.276) – 2-for-4, HR

Other Notable Performers:

Jarek Cunningham, 2B (.211) – 1-for-4, HR

Mel Rojas, CF (.225) – 1-for-3, 3B

Game Notes: Stolmy Pimentel gave up three runs in the first inning in large part to a two run homer. He gave up two more runs in the fifth inning on another two run homer. In his last three starts, Pimentel has given up 17 earned runs in 17.1 innings. That’s after giving up just three earned runs in his first 36.1 innings this season. Adalberto Santos hit his second home run of the year. Jarek Cunningham hit his seventh homer of the year.

A+: BRADENTON MARAUDERS

Box Score

Result: Tampa 2, Bradenton 1

Starting Pitcher: Eliecer Navarro, LHP (0-8, 3.78) – 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 0 HR

Top Hitter: Alen Hanson, SS (.272) – 2-for-4, 2B

Other Notable Performers:

Gregory Polanco, CF (.303) – 1-for-4, 2 K

Game Notes: Earlier today I wrote about Alen Hanson and how he’s turned his offense and defense around since being benched for a few days in mid-May. Hanson continued hitting tonight, getting his sixth multi-hit game in his last ten games, and his fourth double in his last six games. Eliecer Navarro now has a 3.78 ERA in 47.2 innings, along with a 44:9 K/BB ratio. However, he hardly gets any run support, leading to an 0-8 record on the season.

Josh Bell has an .878 OPS in the month of May.

A: WEST VIRGINIA POWER

Box Score

Result: West Virginia 11, Kannapolis 2

Starting Pitcher: Joely Rodriguez, LHP (3-3, 2.76) – 6.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 0 HR

Top Hitter: Stetson Allie, DH (.325) – 3-for-4, 2B, BB, 3 RBI

Other Notable Performers:

Josh Bell, RF (.283) – 2-for-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI

Max Moroff, SS (.215) – 3-for-5, 2B

Walker Gourley, 1B (.333) – 1-for-3, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 2 SB

Game Notes: In his last five starts, Joely Rodriguez has given up two earned runs in 29.1 innings, with a 23:4 K/BB ratio. The lefty has also been working in the low 90s at times this year, topping out at 94. Stetson Allie had three hits in a game for the second day in a row. He has a five game hitting streak and is 9-for-20 with three doubles and two homers in that stretch. Josh Bell picked up two hits and a double, and now has a .292 average, an .878 OPS, and a 16:13 BB/K ratio in 65 at-bats in May. Walker Gourley hit his second homer of the year.

Sickels has Georgia HS outfielder Clint Frazier going to the Pirates with the ninth overall pick. Frazier has been in the top six for almost all of the season, a few times being named in the top spot overall.

In the 14th spot, Sickels has the Pirates taking Indiana State LHP, Sean Manaea. Like Frazier, Manaea has been at or near the top of this draft class all season long. Both players have recently fallen and for Frazier it is more of a sudden drop.

Manaea has had problems all season, cold weather, a 15 day period in between starts due to weather, a sprained ankle, an injured hip and most recently, a slight drop in velocity. His numbers for the season, despite all of those problems, have not been bad. He is 5-4, 1.47 in 12 starts, with 93 strikeouts and a .190 BAA in 73.1 innings.

Frazier is an interesting case. He has potential to be a middle of the order hitter, with 35-40 homers. He’s very athletic, plays center field and has a great arm. This season, Frazier batted .485 in 114 plate appearances, with 17 homers and a 1.695 OPS. If he somehow drops to the Pirates with the ninth pick, he certainly seems like a no-brainer.

Between the two Pirates picks, from 10-13, Sickels has Trey Ball, Dominic Smith, Reese McGuire and Ian Clarkin. Both Ball and McGuire have been linked to the Pirates numerous times and would be good picks at #9 if Frazier didn’t happen to fall. All four are very interesting names.

Right after Manaea, Sickels has DJ Peterson and JP Crawford. Peterson has also been linked to the Pirates twice recently. While he doesn’t have the appeal of a left-handed starter with great size and a nice track record like Manaea, Crawford might be a more appealing pick at the #14 spot. A HS shortstop, who can stick at the position, plus hit well and add speed at the top of a lineup, might be more tempting than a pitcher who has experienced velocity problems and injury woes this year.

Alex Dickerson has been placed on the DL with a concussion.

Last night Alex Dickerson was involved in a collision at first base, and was removed from the field on an ambulance. He was conscious when he left the field, waving to fans. Today he was placed on the Altoona disabled list with a concussion. To take his place on the roster, Justin Howard has been activated off the disabled list.

Alen Hanson has done a complete 180 both offensively and defensively since being benched for a few games in April.

Ground balls are supposed to lead to easy outs. When you see a routine grounder hit to shortstop, you expect an out. There’s usually no feeling that the play could go wrong. You get ready to write “6-3″ in your scorebook, even before the play is finished. There’s a reason they call it “routine”.

That wasn’t the case with Alen Hanson early in the season. Hanson’s defense at the start of the year was horrible. The shortstop started the year with ten errors in his first ten games. There were several plays that could have been ruled errors, but where Hanson got the home town treatment. But the frustrating thing about these errors were that they didn’t come on somewhat difficult plays. They came on routine plays. The ball would be hit to Hanson, he’d have plenty of time to make a play, and he’d throw wild to first. Or he’d set up ready to field the ball, and would boot the grounder.

There were moments where you held your breath on every routine grounder. The speed of the ground ball to short gave you just enough time to debate whether Hanson could commit an error. ”No way he commits an error on this. There’s just no possible way.” Then you pause. “But I wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow does.” Then the throw. Wild, even though there was plenty of time to get the runner.

At times it was painful to watch. It wasn’t an issue where you thought “maybe he’d be better off at second base”. It was an issue where you thought “there’s no infield position he can play if he’s doing this”. Bottom line, it seemed like a classic case of Steve Sax syndrome.

Hanson was benched for several games after a three error game on April 14th. He was benched to clear his head, as the error count was not only adding up, but was also affecting his hitting. At the time he had a .191/.224/.255 line in 47 at-bats.

He came back on April 18th. That same day Pirates infield coordinator Gary Green came to Bradenton for a week to work with all of the infielders. Naturally this would present a good time to work with Hanson on his issues. That’s what they did. Each day that week Hanson worked on the short field beyond the outfield wall with Green and Marauders manager Frank Kremblas. Pirates Director of Minor League Operations Larry Broadway was also in attendance on some days, overseeing the fielding practice.

The purpose was to get Hanson focusing on his mechanics again. He needed to focus on funneling the ball to his body, and shortening his arm, which would prevent the wild throws. There was also a focus on Hanson being aggressive on the field, especially with the routine plays. Some of the errors on those routine plays came as a result of weak throws. It’s not that Hanson was necessarily slacking on the field, but it looked like he wasn’t throwing the ball at 100 percent on the routine grounders. He’d make good throws on the close and difficult plays, but would take a lot off on the easy throws. Hanson already has a fringy arm which is enough to stick at shortstop. By taking anything off the throws, he turns a lot of routine plays into unnecessarily close plays at first.

In the week working with Green, Hanson had some errors, but only three in his next six games. He also showed some positive signs, looking much better on the field. It wasn’t something that you wanted to give a lot of praise to, since he was just making the routine plays with the ease that you’d expect from a routine play. But considering how he set the bar so low early in the season by struggling with anything routine, it was worthy of recognition that he was at least making the plays he should be making.

Since April 23rd, Hanson has only made one error. That came last week, and wasn’t a fielding error. Hanson retrieved a relay from center field with a runner advancing to third. He had no shot of throwing out the runner, but rushed the throw anyways, instead of holding the ball. The ball got past the third baseman, went into the dugout and allowed a run to score. That was a case where he was probably too aggressive.

As for his fielding, it has been considerably better since the Pirates made that change. I thought about writing about Hanson after Green left town, but I wanted to wait and see how the defense held up. That error from Friday’s game was the only error he’s had in the last 23 games, and it wasn’t a fielding error. He’s had three fielding related errors in 29 games since taking a break and working with Green. His offense is also doing better, with a .297/.363/.405 line in 111 at-bats since being benched.

I noticed something the other day. Now when there’s a routine grounder hit to short, I hardly notice. I go to write “6-3″ in the scorebook, and don’t even consider the possibility that the routine play could somehow be missed. That’s the way it should be, and it speaks to the complete 180 that Hanson has done from his rough start early in the season.

*Game Score is a stat created by Bill James used to determine how good a pitcher’s outing really was. The formula for game score is simple: Start with 50 points, add one point for every out recorded, add two for each inning completed after the fourth, add one point for each strikeout. Subtract two points for each hit, four points for each earned run, two points for each unearned run and one point for each walk. There tends to be an advantage for pitchers who can go longer in the game, as they have more time to pile up strikeouts, while getting bonus points for extra innings beyond the fourth frame.

The Top Ten

Nick Kingham had the top game score in the system for the second time this year.

Nick Kingham and David Bromberg tied for the top spot this week, with each posting a 72 game score. Kingham went seven innings, giving up one run and striking out nine. The nine strikeouts was his second highest total of the year. On April 28th he struck out 13 in six shutout innings, which earned him the top game score that week. Kingham joins Stolmy Pimentel and Andy Oliver as the only pitchers who have posted the top game score two weeks out of the year. Oliver and Pimentel tied with each other one week. There have only been two weeks this year where one of those three starters haven’t been at the top.

Bromberg’s outing wasn’t a start. He came in to reliever Charlie Morton, who went four innings in a rehab start. Normally when there’s a rehab start that goes four innings or less, the regularly scheduled starter will come in out of the bullpen and act like he’s making a start. Bromberg came in and threw five no-hit innings, allowing one walk and striking out six.

Brandon Cumpton continues to post impressive, and somewhat surprising numbers for Indianapolis. I say surprising because he had a rough start to the year with Altoona, and started off rough in his first start with Indianapolis. He had the third best game score this week with six shutout innings. In the month of May he has a 2.35 ERA in 23 innings, with a 23:10 K/BB ratio and a very impressive 3.09 GO/AO ratio.

Zack Dodson has looked good since returning from his suspension and joining Bradenton. In his most recent start he gave up just one run in 6.2 innings, with five strikeouts and two walks. Dodson was cruising through the outing, and finished with 99 pitches. He missed closing out the seventh inning, walking the final batter he faced on a full count.

Casey Sadler had the top score in the system last week, and rounded out the top five this week. Sadler went seven shutout innings, allowing five hits, two walks, and striking out three. Out of nine starts this year, Sadler has four starts where he’s gone seven innings or more with one or fewer earned runs. On the season he has a 2.79 ERA in 58 innings, with a 30:15 K/BB ratio and a 2.15 GO/AO ratio.

Clay Holmes has been in the bottom five almost every week, but made it to the top ten with his latest start. Holmes gave up just one run on one hit in five innings on Friday. He did walk three batters, and walks continue to be an issue. On the season Holmes has a 22:28 K/BB ratio in 36 innings.

Luis Sanz has been filling in as a starter for Altoona the last two weeks, and made it to the top ten this week. In his second start for Altoona he went 5.2 innings, allowing two runs and striking out five. Sanz has a 3.63 ERA and a 23:15 K/BB ratio in 22.1 innings this year.

Tyler Glasnow finished eighth this week after another performance where he dominated with strikeouts. Glasnow struck out eight batters in four innings, which is actually his lowest strikeout total in his last three starts. In the last four starts Glasnow has given up four earned runs in 19 innings, with an incredible 34:10 K/BB ratio. On the season he has a 50:21 K/BB ratio in 34 innings. Even more impressive is that he has only given up 14 hits on the year.

Joely Rodriguez has been putting up strong numbers this season. In his latest start he gave up one earned run in six innings, which is the fourth start in a row that he went 5+ innings with one or fewer earned runs. Rodriguez has a 3.14 ERA in 43 innings this year with a 36:12 K/BB ratio and a 2.19 GO/AO ratio.

Gerrit Cole rounded out the top ten with his first of two starts last week. Cole went six innings, allowing three runs and striking out five. That was a positive sign, as Cole wasn’t striking out a lot of batters prior to that start. It didn’t carry over to the second start, which finished in the bottom five.

The Bottom Five

The bottom five this week includes a lot of top prospects. The worst game score belongs to Adrian Sampson, who was hit for seven runs on 11 hits in four innings in his second start of the week. Sampson has good stuff, but he’s struggled so far in the aggressive promotion to Bradenton.

Jake Burnette had the second lowest game score in his second start of the week. He only lasted two-thirds of an inning, giving up six runs on three hits. Burnette joined the West Virginia rotation this week, but didn’t put up impressive numbers in either start.

Nick Kingham had the best score of the week, but he also had the third worst with his first start. Kingham lasted two-thirds of an innings, giving up four runs on three hits. It was a bump in the road for Kingham, who has been excellent the rest of the season.

Gerrit Cole rounded out the top ten, but he also ended up in the bottom five with his second start of the week. Cole gave up eight earned runs in 5.2 innings on Sunday for his worst start of the season.

After finishing in the top three in four of the first five weeks, Stolmy Pimentel finished in the bottom five for the second week in a row. He gave up six runs on ten hits in six innings. Pimentel started the year giving up three earned runs in 36.1 innings. In his last two starts he’s given up 12 earned runs in 10.1 innings.

*Runs Created is a stat created by Bill James used to estimate how many runs an individual contributes to his team. There are many formulas for runs created. For these purposes the basic formula is used. That formula is ((H + BB) * (1B + (2*2B) + (3*3B) + (4*HR))) / (AB + BB).

Felix Pie is the top hitter in the system for the second week in a row.

For the second week in a row Felix Pie is the top hitter in the system. Pie went 10-for-20 with two doubles and two triples in the last week. He’s been on fire in the month of May, hitting for a .368/.463/.649 line in 57 at-bats. When Pie was cut from Major League camp in Spring Training, Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington noted that the team liked him, and saw some similarities to Garrett Jones in 2009. That wasn’t that they’re similar players, but that they both had strong performances in Spring Training, and both had a chance to force their way on the roster by continuing that in Indianapolis. Ironically, Pie is exactly like Jones in that he can only hit right-handers. This year he has a .319/.396/.511 line in 94 at-bats against right-handers. He’s 2-for-27 against lefties. Considering the Pirates have Travis Snider and Jose Tabata in the majors, Pie would look like nothing more than depth at this point. That said, it’s good to see a depth option hitting so well.

Another person who has been hitting well in Indianapolis has been Tony Sanchez. On the season he has a .296/.400/.510 line in 98 at-bats. In the month of May he’s hitting for a .350/.422/.625 line in 40 at-bats. Sanchez was the number two hitter in the system this past week, going 8-for-20 with four doubles and a homer. He’s doubled in seven of his last nine games, and had an eight game hitting streak that was broken Sunday night.

Rounding out the top three is another Indianapolis hitter, Brett Carroll. He’s a 30-year-old outfielder who has been hitting for a lot of power this year. Carroll hit three homers in the last week, going 9-for-28 at the plate. Carroll has eight homers on the season, and an .855 OPS, although he’s probably way down on the depth charts, behind Pie and Alex Presley in Indianapolis.

Carlos Paulino is known for his strong defense behind the plate, highlighted by the best arm in the system. He hasn’t been hitting much, although that changed this week. Paulino went 8-for-17 with a double and a triple. On the season he has a .218/.304/.277 line in 101 at-bats. He has a seven game hitting streak going.

Stetson Allie rounded out the top five. On Friday’s podcast I noted that Allie was on a cold streak, but that he could easily do a 180 and start hitting again. He did exactly that, going 6-for-16 with two doubles and two homers over the weekend to propel him up in the rankings this week.

Ivan De Jesus has been hitting well with Indianapolis since Jordy Mercer was promoted. He continued that this week, going 8-for-20 with a homer. On the season he has a .340/.400/.470 line in 100 at-bats.

Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco both made the top ten this week. Hanson finished seventh, going 7-for-23 with three doubles and a homer. Hanson’s hitting has been great in his last ten games, with a .341/.372/.488 line in 41 at-bats. Gregory Polanco finished with the tenth best score, going 6-for-19 with a homer and three doubles. He missed a few games at the start of the week with a minor wrist injury, but showed no problems after coming back. On the season he is hitting for a .305/.379/.496 line.

Raul Fortunato and Dilson Herrera finished eighth and ninth respectively, with both West Virginia hitters putting up almost identical runs created numbers. Fortunato went 8-for-19 with a double and a triple. He got off to a great start this year, but has since slumped with a poor month of May and is hitting for a .261 average and a .669 OPS. Herrera went 8-for-24 with a double and a homer. He had a somewhat slow start, although it wasn’t bad. In the month of May he’s hitting for a .328/.355/.534 line in 58 at-bats, which is a great sign.

Clint Barmes’ recent adjustments to his swing have paid off in hits and helped the Pirates get some production from the bottom of the batting order.

Barmes was never intended to be a player Pittsburgh looked to as a vital piece of its lineup, as made evident by his usual appearance in the No. 8 spot. His main contribution has been with his glove but recently he  has shown some improvement at the plate.

Through April Barmes’ batting average was just .181 and he had an OPS of .422. Through 37 at-bats in May he’s seen his batting average rise 48 points to .229. So far this month he’s hitting .324 with an .873 OPS.

“He made an adjustment, suggested to him probably a week ago, and he was able to put it right into the game,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said during the Milwaukee series last week. “He’s worked on a number of different things throughout his career. It’s something we tried, talked about and said, ‘We’ve got to do this.’ Since then he’s just had much better at-bats. He’s held his position and his posture in the batter’s box much better. Kinda the same thing we talked with Jones about — staying tall and hitting the ball against your front foot and not lowering your angle and not crouching to hit it. He’s had some success.”

Barmes’ big moment came on a Saturday afternoon early in the month at PNC Park when he crushed a Stephen Strasburg pitch for a two-run home run to give the Pirates a 4-2 lead (that they would later lose to Washington).

Since then he’s had timely hits and provided a capable bat in the lower half of a Pittsburgh batting order that has sorely needed some production with the well documented struggles of Pedro Alvarez (thought Alvarez did have a decent weekend).

“The adjustment we made is just trying to get some weight on the back side,” Barmes said. “Just start it there and leave it there so when I want to start my swing I get to center and I don’t have to go further past that. Really that’s the biggest adjustment that I’ve made. It’s a minor one but it’s obviously kept me on the ball a little better and definitely behind the ball so I’m driving the ball better than what I have up to this point this season.”

Barmes acknowledged that he has not always been the most consistent hitter during his 10-year career and said that he has been able to get away with not getting behind the ball for a stretch.

“It’s nothing that we haven’t really tried to find or tired to be more consistent with in the past,” he said. “The biggest thing is just my weight shift back and trying to get some weight back so that I can go from being behind the ball and get to center as opposed to in the past I’ve always wanted to try to somewhat stay centered in my body and go from there. I’ll have spurts where I get by with it but as far as consistency, which is what I’ve battled my whole career. it’s not very good for that.”

I’m on record as saying I think Jordy Mercer should get more playing time at shortstop, but the Pirates — at least for now — have an option at the position that can add something to the offense in Barmes. I think we can all agree that is more than (currently injured and a black hole at the plate before that) John McDonald brings to the team and it will not hurt to have someone around who can play there and split time as needed.

Pirates general manager Neal Huntington said a decision will have to be made on if Jeff Karstens will be a part of the starting rotation or pitch out of the bullpen when he returns from injury

Huntington gave me an update on the Pirates’ rehabbing pitchers as well as John McDonald.

In McDonald’s (the infielder, not the pitcher) case Huntington said he complained of how his elbow had been bothering him while receiving treatment after his back locked up earlier this week in extra innings against Milwaukee.

“We’re treating both at the same time,” Huntington said. “We fully expect that he’ll be healthy and ready to go.”

Perhaps the most interesting thing Huntington brought up was the case of Jeff Karstens, who made his most recent rehab start for Altoona on Saturday. With the somewhat surprising results (in a good way) Pittsburgh has received from guys like Jeff Locke and Jeanmar Gomez, I asked Huntington how he would go about deciding who fills what role when the ailing arms start to make their way back to PNC Park from their minor league rehab stints.

“Jeff continues to work back and we’ll have a decision to make with him at some point and time — rotation or bullpen,” he said. “We’ll worry about that piece by piece and we’ll put plans in place. We’ll have Plan A and B and C and probably all the way down to Z. If you had asked me on April 15 where our rotation was going to be it would probably would have been a different configuration than it is now. That’s the nature of the beast and in our minds that’s why it’s important to have pitching depth. Starting depth in particular because it is a game of attrition and unfortunately guys do go down.”

**

Huntington on James McDonald:

“James McDonald is beginning a throwing program again. We’ll probably get him a couple sides and get him out on a rehab here, I expect in a couple weeks. A week to two.”

On Charlie Morton:

“He’s got about three more starts minimum if there are no more hiccups along the way and he continues to progress and build his pitch count.”

**

I also got to ask Huntington about the relationship between the Pirates and West Virginia. Once upon a time the Charleston Charlies were Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate and featured future Pirates (and Charleston Baseball Hall of Famers) Dave Parker, Kent Tekulve, Willie Randolph, Art Howe and Dave Augustine.

The Charleston franchise was reborn as the West Virginia Power in 2005 with the opening of Appalachian Power Park and were affiliated with Milwaukee until 2009 when the Pirates returned to the Mountain State.

The partnership has been a good one so far, Huntington said.

“It’s been great,” he said. “Our guys have been very positive on the fans, the community and the facilities. It’s a good development environment and it’s a good environment to be in. We appreciate the support we’ve gotten here and we appreciate the relationship we have with the front office and the ownership group.”

The decision to return to Charleston fit within the Pirates’ plan to keep as many of their minor league teams as possible close to Pittsburgh and according to Huntington was made easier considering the history the Pirates have with West Virginia’s capital city.

“When we talked with the ownership group and the front office initially about coming back here that was I think something that was an interesting draw to them,” Huntington said. “As we learned more about it and the history, obviously we want to have as many of our teams as close to Pittsburgh as we can because we love our fans to have the ability to go ‘I remember him in A-Ball’ and maybe take a trip to Bradenton to go see them in the Florida State League or instructional league or run to Altoona.”