Alen Hanson has done a complete 180 both offensively and defensively since being benched for a few games in April.

Ground balls are supposed to lead to easy outs. When you see a routine grounder hit to shortstop, you expect an out. There’s usually no feeling that the play could go wrong. You get ready to write “6-3″ in your scorebook, even before the play is finished. There’s a reason they call it “routine”.

That wasn’t the case with Alen Hanson early in the season. Hanson’s defense at the start of the year was horrible. The shortstop started the year with ten errors in his first ten games. There were several plays that could have been ruled errors, but where Hanson got the home town treatment. But the frustrating thing about these errors were that they didn’t come on somewhat difficult plays. They came on routine plays. The ball would be hit to Hanson, he’d have plenty of time to make a play, and he’d throw wild to first. Or he’d set up ready to field the ball, and would boot the grounder.

There were moments where you held your breath on every routine grounder. The speed of the ground ball to short gave you just enough time to debate whether Hanson could commit an error. ”No way he commits an error on this. There’s just no possible way.” Then you pause. “But I wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow does.” Then the throw. Wild, even though there was plenty of time to get the runner.

At times it was painful to watch. It wasn’t an issue where you thought “maybe he’d be better off at second base”. It was an issue where you thought “there’s no infield position he can play if he’s doing this”. Bottom line, it seemed like a classic case of Steve Sax syndrome.

Hanson was benched for several games after a three error game on April 14th. He was benched to clear his head, as the error count was not only adding up, but was also affecting his hitting. At the time he had a .191/.224/.255 line in 47 at-bats.

He came back on April 18th. That same day Pirates infield coordinator Gary Green came to Bradenton for a week to work with all of the infielders. Naturally this would present a good time to work with Hanson on his issues. That’s what they did. Each day that week Hanson worked on the short field beyond the outfield wall with Green and Marauders manager Frank Kremblas. Pirates Director of Minor League Operations Larry Broadway was also in attendance on some days, overseeing the fielding practice.

The purpose was to get Hanson focusing on his mechanics again. He needed to focus on funneling the ball to his body, and shortening his arm, which would prevent the wild throws. There was also a focus on Hanson being aggressive on the field, especially with the routine plays. Some of the errors on those routine plays came as a result of weak throws. It’s not that Hanson was necessarily slacking on the field, but it looked like he wasn’t throwing the ball at 100 percent on the routine grounders. He’d make good throws on the close and difficult plays, but would take a lot off on the easy throws. Hanson already has a fringy arm which is enough to stick at shortstop. By taking anything off the throws, he turns a lot of routine plays into unnecessarily close plays at first.

In the week working with Green, Hanson had some errors, but only three in his next six games. He also showed some positive signs, looking much better on the field. It wasn’t something that you wanted to give a lot of praise to, since he was just making the routine plays with the ease that you’d expect from a routine play. But considering how he set the bar so low early in the season by struggling with anything routine, it was worthy of recognition that he was at least making the plays he should be making.

Since April 23rd, Hanson has only made one error. That came last week, and wasn’t a fielding error. Hanson retrieved a relay from center field with a runner advancing to third. He had no shot of throwing out the runner, but rushed the throw anyways, instead of holding the ball. The ball got past the third baseman, went into the dugout and allowed a run to score. That was a case where he was probably too aggressive.

As for his fielding, it has been considerably better since the Pirates made that change. I thought about writing about Hanson after Green left town, but I wanted to wait and see how the defense held up. That error from Friday’s game was the only error he’s had in the last 23 games, and it wasn’t a fielding error. He’s had three fielding related errors in 29 games since taking a break and working with Green. His offense is also doing better, with a .297/.363/.405 line in 111 at-bats since being benched.

I noticed something the other day. Now when there’s a routine grounder hit to short, I hardly notice. I go to write “6-3″ in the scorebook, and don’t even consider the possibility that the routine play could somehow be missed. That’s the way it should be, and it speaks to the complete 180 that Hanson has done from his rough start early in the season.

Clint Barmes’ recent adjustments to his swing have paid off in hits and helped the Pirates get some production from the bottom of the batting order.

Barmes was never intended to be a player Pittsburgh looked to as a vital piece of its lineup, as made evident by his usual appearance in the No. 8 spot. His main contribution has been with his glove but recently he  has shown some improvement at the plate.

Through April Barmes’ batting average was just .181 and he had an OPS of .422. Through 37 at-bats in May he’s seen his batting average rise 48 points to .229. So far this month he’s hitting .324 with an .873 OPS.

“He made an adjustment, suggested to him probably a week ago, and he was able to put it right into the game,” Pirates manager Clint Hurdle said during the Milwaukee series last week. “He’s worked on a number of different things throughout his career. It’s something we tried, talked about and said, ‘We’ve got to do this.’ Since then he’s just had much better at-bats. He’s held his position and his posture in the batter’s box much better. Kinda the same thing we talked with Jones about — staying tall and hitting the ball against your front foot and not lowering your angle and not crouching to hit it. He’s had some success.”

Barmes’ big moment came on a Saturday afternoon early in the month at PNC Park when he crushed a Stephen Strasburg pitch for a two-run home run to give the Pirates a 4-2 lead (that they would later lose to Washington).

Since then he’s had timely hits and provided a capable bat in the lower half of a Pittsburgh batting order that has sorely needed some production with the well documented struggles of Pedro Alvarez (thought Alvarez did have a decent weekend).

“The adjustment we made is just trying to get some weight on the back side,” Barmes said. “Just start it there and leave it there so when I want to start my swing I get to center and I don’t have to go further past that. Really that’s the biggest adjustment that I’ve made. It’s a minor one but it’s obviously kept me on the ball a little better and definitely behind the ball so I’m driving the ball better than what I have up to this point this season.”

Barmes acknowledged that he has not always been the most consistent hitter during his 10-year career and said that he has been able to get away with not getting behind the ball for a stretch.

“It’s nothing that we haven’t really tried to find or tired to be more consistent with in the past,” he said. “The biggest thing is just my weight shift back and trying to get some weight back so that I can go from being behind the ball and get to center as opposed to in the past I’ve always wanted to try to somewhat stay centered in my body and go from there. I’ll have spurts where I get by with it but as far as consistency, which is what I’ve battled my whole career. it’s not very good for that.”

I’m on record as saying I think Jordy Mercer should get more playing time at shortstop, but the Pirates — at least for now — have an option at the position that can add something to the offense in Barmes. I think we can all agree that is more than (currently injured and a black hole at the plate before that) John McDonald brings to the team and it will not hurt to have someone around who can play there and split time as needed.

Luis Heredia will be joining West Virginia soon.

On Thursday I went over to Pirate City to watch Luis Heredia make a start in extended Spring Training against the Philadelphia Phillies farm system. There hasn’t been a lot to write about Heredia this year, as the Pirates have held him out of action. He only threw in a game once during Spring Training, which came at the end of March. He didn’t make his first extended Spring Training start until the end of April. Along the way Heredia was working on getting in shape, and working on a few minor adjustments with his delivery.

Heredia’s first two starts went two innings each. The start on Thursday was his third start, and he went three innings. The right-hander ran into trouble in the first. After striking out his first batter, Heredia allowed the next four batters to reach, capped off by a home run to the fourth batter of that series to make the score 4-0. The home run was a result of a slider that Heredia hung up in the zone.

After that, Heredia settled down. He gave up just one hit over the next two innings, with no runs. He finished with four runs on five hits in three innings, with no walks and four strikeouts. The no walks was a bit misleading, as Heredia had some control issues and was elevating his fastball at times out of the zone in the second and third innings. He was sitting in the 90-92 range with his fastball for the entire start, and mixed in his slider and changeup.

Heredia is throwing every five days now, and expects to be extended to four or five innings in his next start. He’s being stretched out, and should eventually join West Virginia.

“I’m ready right now, in good shape,” Heredia said. “Going to need a couple more innings to stay ready.”

The Pirates decided to hold Heredia back for a few reasons. First there’s the cold weather in the early part of the season in West Virginia. They also want to make sure he has enough innings to finish the season in West Virginia, rather than being shut down with a high innings count. There was also a hope that he would have enough innings left over for the Fall Instructional Leagues.

The time off allowed Heredia to get in better shape, work on his mechanics, and get more comfortable with his new slider. Heredia used to throw a slower curveball, but switched to a harder slider aimed at getting more strikeouts.

“I’m feeling good, comfortable on that one,” Heredia said of his slider.

The slider led to the home run on Thursday, but also led to some strikeouts and swings and misses when it was executed properly.

Once Heredia joins West Virginia, he should have a similar workload to his time in State College last year. In each of his games he was limited to five innings, never going beyond that mark. He will have the same limitations on him this year, aimed at controlling the innings totals for the 18-year-old. The plan all along has been for him to join West Virginia. At this point it looks like he’ll be closer to a Quinton Miller schedule (joining the team in late May), rather than a Jameson Taillon schedule (late-April).

Baseball America has released two very interesting articles in the last week. Matt Eddy went back and looked at the top 100 draft picks from 1989 to 2008. The focus was on position players only, so the articles seem relevant to the Pirates’ situation this year. In the first article, Eddy looked at where each position usually ended up in the majors. For example, a shortstop in the draft isn’t always going to end up a shortstop in the majors.  In the time span that Eddy looked at, 35 college drafted shortstops and 44 high school drafted shortstops made the majors. Only 18 college and 11 high school shortstops remained at shortstop.

That was very interesting research, but it only focused on players in the majors. From that research we could conclude that a college shortstop has a 50% chance of sticking at the position if he reaches the majors, while a high school shortstop has a 25% chance of sticking. What we don’t know is how many other shortstops failed. Without that information it seems that if you draft a college shortstop, you’ve got a coin flip chance of landing your future major league shortstop.

Eddy came out with the second article today, this time looking at major league graduation rates, and impact rates in the majors. The focus this time was on how many players reached the majors from each position, and how many of those players went on to become impact players.

The Pirates have some short-term and long-term position needs. In the short-term they could use a shortstop, as could most teams. In the long-term the depth at third base in the minors is very thin, leaving Eric Wood as the best chance of a future replacement for Pedro Alvarez. Wood is a good sleeper prospect to follow, but he’s far from being penciled in to any future major league lineups. Using both articles by Eddy, we can get an idea of the odds of the Pirates getting a future major league position player in the 2013 draft.

Catcher

High School

The main high school catching option for the Pirates this year is Reese McGuire. He’s a prep catcher, and in Baseball America’s latest mock draft he was profiled to go sixth overall. Jim Callis did mention that McGuire could be an option for the Pirates at number nine.

College

You’ve got much better odds of getting a future catcher out of the college ranks. However, the chance of landing an impact player is about the same as going the high school route, and is actually slightly better. Granted, that doesn’t mean the impact player will remain at catcher. Some of the impact high school catchers include Joey Votto and Jayson Werth. Almost all of the college catchers who were impact players have been impact players behind the plate, at least for the start of their careers.

There aren’t any college catchers at the top of the 2013 draft.

Shortstop

High School

Drafting a high school shortstop doesn’t mean you’re getting a future shortstop. In fact, the odds are alarmingly low. Out of the 132 shortstops drafted, only 11 made it as major league shortstops. The appeal here would be getting an impact guy. Several of the impact guys remained at shortstop for some of their careers. The list includes Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jimmy Rollins, and J.J. Hardy.

J.P. Crawford is a prep shortstop who could be an option for the 14th overall pick. He’s said to have the defense to stick at the position, and also has some hitting ability. But when you hear that, keep in mind the above numbers.

College

The college shortstops have a much better chance of making it to the majors and being impact players. They also have a 1-in-4 chance of staying at shortstop in the majors. The appeal with high school guys could be that you have a better shot of landing a third baseman. If you’ve got a high schooler with a strong arm and a good ability to hit, but he grows out of the shortstop role, he could move to third. That’s less likely for college shortstops, probably because they would have already reached this stage while they’re in college.

The important thing to note about the shortstop position is that it’s usually where the best athlete plays. It doesn’t say much if a guy is a shortstop for his high school team. If a guy is a shortstop in college, it says a little more, since he’s the best athlete at a higher level. So it makes sense that a college shortstop would have such a strong chance at sticking at the position, since he’s already remained at the position despite being surrounded by top athletes.

There aren’t any college shortstops in the Pirates range though.

Second Base

High School

It’s rare to have a high school second base prospect. That means they weren’t good enough to play the best position on the field in high school. That’s either a reflection on their talent, or means they have some phenomenal prospect on the same team at short. Either way, none of them have reached the majors.

College

There haven’t been a lot of college second basemen drafted high either. The success rate is up there, but that makes sense. If a second baseman is going to be a top 100 draft pick, he’s probably a sure thing. There aren’t many options for a second baseman. They probably don’t have the arm strength to play on the left-side of the infield. They usually don’t have the power to play a corner position.

Either way, the top second base prospect in this draft is ranked 66th overall, so that won’t be an issue for the Pirates in the first round.

Third Base

High School

High school third baseman have the “second base” factor, where they’re not good enough to play the best position on the field. They probably have power, arm strength, or both. However, they’re not athletic enough to play behind the plate. The end result is that only 13% remain at the position, while 7% move across the diamond to first.

The highest ranked high school third baseman is ranked 55th.

College

College third basemen seem like a good bet. Over half of them have reached the majors, a third of them stay at the position, and one out of five go on to become impact players in the majors. That’s good to hear, since the Pirates will have a lot of college third base prospects to choose from.

The latest BA mock draft has the Pirates taking Colin Moran with the ninth overall pick. There’s also a mention that the Pirates could go with Eric Jagielo, third baseman from Notre Dame, with the number 14 pick. I doubt they’d take both guys, but the chances of ending up with one college third baseman in this draft seem strong.

Outfield

High School

About one in four high school outfielders make the majors. The impact rate here is higher than any other prep position, other than first base which we’ll get to in a second. Most outfielders stay in the outfield, but move to one of the corners if they can’t stick in center. Usually if you’ve got a strong arm, you move to right field, and a weaker arm goes to left. Range can also be a factor, with more range going to left, and less to right. That’s especially true for PNC Park. The odds of an outfielder eventually going to first base are slim, probably because there’s more value keeping guys in the outfield.

Austin Meadows is a five tool prep outfielder who could drop to the Pirates. They don’t have a system need for outfielders. They’ve got Andrew McCutchen and Starling Marte in the majors. Travis Snider and Jose Tabata are options for right field. Down the line they’ve got Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell. Considering the above stats, they shouldn’t shy away from taking an outfielder if he’s the best talent. If you consider Bell and Polanco to be on the level of high school draft picks (which Bell was), then you’ll need two more outfield prospects to have an almost guaranteed chance at a major leaguer.

College

College outfielders have a better chance of reaching the majors, and providing an impact. The only top college outfield prospects would be options at number 14. Hunter Renfroe went 15th overall in BA’s mock draft. Phillip Ervin is further down the draft board and out of the Pirates’ range. However, it would be good to see him selected, if only because it would inevitably result in people confusing him with Phil Irwin.

My stance on outfielders is that the Pirates aren’t set at the position until they’ve got three long-term options in the majors. Right now they have two in my opinion. So even though they’ve got Polanco and Bell in the system, they could still use more talent.

First Base

High School

If you’re a high school first baseman, it means you’re not a good athlete. If you’re a high school first baseman who is a top 100 draft pick, it means you have a great bat. The impact players from this list include Derrek Lee, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder. This is the highest impact position for prep players, and it makes sense. You’re drafting guys with great bats, and you don’t have to worry about the defense coming along, since the value is going to come from the bat.

Dominic Smith is considered one of the best all-around hitters in the draft, and Callis said he comes with less risk than most high school bats. He also has strong defense at first. Callis mentioned him at number 14 for the Pirates, but in a “he’s a gifted hitter” way, and not in a “the Pirates are considering him” way.

College

The same situation applies with college first baseman as far as being drafted for their bats. The impact rate is extremely high, but you only have to focus on the hitting, and that’s already strong if a guy is going in the top 100.

D.J. Peterson is a college first baseman, although he’s listed at third base before first base. BA’s mock draft has him going 11th.

The Individual

The above numbers are really valuable, as they give some perspective on the historical odds of what each player could do. If the Pirates drafted Colin Moran, we know that he has a 34% chance of making the majors as a third baseman, and a 21% chance of being an impact player, based on the historical numbers. If they went with Austin Meadows, he’d have a 27% chance of making the majors in the outfield, and a 12% chance of being an impact player.

The key here is that the individual is still important. Looking just at the combined numbers provides one flaw. It gives the same value to all of the guys in the top 100. So Meadows, rated as the 5th best prospect by Baseball America, would have the same odds as Billy McKinney, who is a prep outfielder that is ranked 27th by Baseball America. But if you’re picking between the two, you’re definitely taking Meadows, since he has a much better chance of reaching the majors and becoming an impact player.

Comparing positions is a bit difficult. Deciding between Meadows and McKinney is easy. But how do you decide between Meadows and Moran, especially when you’ve got the need factors weighing in? Meadows is the higher ranked prospect, but the odds of success for college third basemen are much higher than the odds for prep outfielders.

The historical odds are very valuable, and I encourage you to read the articles written by Matt Eddy, if only because it’s fun to see where some of the current major league players were picked, and where they started their careers. That said, the historical odds should only be a reference. If you’re only saying “draft a high school shortstop in the first round because the Pirates need a shortstop”, then the odds would play a much bigger role. They’d tell you that you’ve got an 8% chance in that scenario to get a future major league shortstop. But that doesn’t mean you should pass on a top talent like Austin Meadows only because the historical odds say one thing. The odds should be considered, but the individual player is far more important.

The Pirates should extend Starling Marte. Photo credit: David Hague

I was discussing Starling Marte on Twitter this afternoon with Travis Sawchik of the Trib and Charlie of Bucs Dugout, and we got on the topic of extensions. Marte currently has less than a year of service time, and at the end of this season he will have a little over one full year. We all agreed today that Marte should be extended, perhaps as early as yesterday. But the list of offensive players who have received such extensions with less than two years of service time is very limited, so it’s hard to get an idea of what Marte would be worth.

I took a look at all of the offensive players with less than two years of service time who received extensions since 2008. MLBTR’s Extension Tracker was a huge help, and thanks to Charlie for pointing it out to me. Charlie also wrote about this same topic, so check out his thoughts here, which is something I will be doing right after hitting “Publish” on this post.

Before I get started, I’ll add the disclaimer that the Pirates are not talking with Marte, to my knowledge. I’m just saying they should extend him, and should be talking to him.

Paul Goldschmidt – 5 years, $32 M (1 option year, $14.5 M)

Marte and Goldschmidt would be in similar situations from a service time standpoint. Goldschmidt came up for 48 games in 2011, played the entire season in 2012, and was extended before the 2013 season. Goldschmidt’s extension was an actual extension — meaning it didn’t replace his 2013 deal that was already in place. The deal bought out one of his free agent years, and gained control of another with an option year.

Starlin Castro – 7 years, $60 M (1 option year, $16 M)

Castro’s deal wouldn’t really be comparable to Marte. He had 1.150 years of service time, so he was a pretty strong bet to be a Super Two player. Also, he had parts of three seasons in the majors when he signed, with some pretty solid results from the shortstop position. When you consider the shortstop factor, that only further separates Castro’s situation from Marte.

There are some interesting aspects of Castro’s deal that could make it easier to sign Marte. He has escalators in his deal which give him an extra $2 M if he finishes in the top five in the MVP voting twice during his contract. He’d also get an extra $2 M on his option year if that happened.

Carlos Santana – 5 years, $21 M (1 option year)

Santana’s deal only buys out one of his free agent years. He signed it a year before Goldschmidt signed his deal, so perhaps the new money that is arriving in MLB is starting to show up in these extensions.

Jonathan Lucroy – 4 years, $11 M (1 option year, total guaranteed could be worth $13 M if he’s a Super Two player)

This seems like a really good deal, but it also doesn’t buy out any free agent years, which is something you’d want if you’re extending Marte.

Salvador Perez – 5 years, $7 M (3 option years, deal could be worth as much as $26.75 M)

I wouldn’t say Perez is anywhere close to the caliber player that Marte is. Also, the last three on this list have been catchers, and I’m not sure how much that applies to Marte.

Jose Tabata – 6 years, $15 M (3 option years worth $22.5 M combined)

Tabata’s deal was extremely team friendly at the time, mostly because he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh. The total value of the deal would have been 9 years and $37.25 M, although I can’t see his options being exercised at this point. This deal does show the downside for the team. Tabata didn’t look as good as Marte at the time, but the deal looked like it was a potential steal. Now you hear people suggesting that the Pirates designate him for assignment just to see if another team will take his salary.

Denard Span – 5 years, $16.5 M (1 option year, $9 M)

Span isn’t really comparable to Marte, since he was more of a speedy, traditional leadoff guy with poor defense in center at the time of his deal. Still, Span and Tabata show that the $15-16 M range for 5 years was the trend for outfielders in the 2010-2011 time frame.

Ryan Braun – 8 years, $45 M

A big difference between Braun’s deal and the others is that he had no options. Braun gave up two years of free agency, and the Brewers guaranteed that. Without those years, the deal was worth about $23 M in the 0-6 years. That’s a bit higher than Span and Tabata, and I’d say Marte’s value falls closer to Braun than those two.

Evan Longoria – 6 years, $17.5 M (3 option years, Potential for $44 M over nine years)

This move came about a week after only six games in the majors by Longoria. As a result, the Rays got a steal. But the 0-6 years still fell in the same range as Tabata and Span. Considering how long ago this deal was, and that Longoria signed so early, I wouldn’t say it’s applicable to Marte.

Chris Young – 5 years, $28 M (1 option year)

Young’s deal guaranteed one of his free agent years, and had an option for another. His 0-6 years were worth $18 M, with a $1 M signing bonus included.

Troy Tulowitzki – 6 years, $30 M (1 option year, $15 M)

His deal was worth about $21 M for the 0-6 years and bought out control of two free agent years. Like Longoria, I think this one is too far back to apply to Marte.

The Cost For Marte

There have only been 11 of these deals signed in the last six years, which is an average of about two per year. When you consider that the deals from 4-6 years ago don’t really apply to the current economics, the sample size gets even smaller. Rather than looking for a young outfielder who can play strong defense and hit for some power, you’re just looking for any player who was good enough to receive an extension this early. For example, Paul Goldschmidt and Starling Marte are two extremely different players. But as far as their value to the team, and their years of service time, they’re pretty much the same.

I would think Goldschmidt would be the best example of a framework for Marte. And while I said Starlin Castro wasn’t really comparable to Marte from a player perspective (not to mention the Super Two factor), I think the 7/$60 M range would be appropriate for Marte’s total value. It’s similar to what Goldschmidt could receive if his option year is picked up (and if he had another option year for the same amount). Let’s look at the breakdown with Goldschmidt and Marte.

Year: Goldschmidt Salary (Applicable Year for Marte and what he’d make without an extension)

2013: Goldschmidt – $500,000 (2014: Marte – Minimum)

Extension Starts – $500,000 bonus

2014: $1,000,000 (2015 – Minimum)

2015: $3,000,000 (2016 – Arb 1)

2016: $5,750,000 (2017 – Arb 2)

2017: $8,750,000 (2018 – Arb 3)

2018: $11,000,000 (2019 – FA)

2019: $14,500,000 option, $2 M buyout (2020 – FA)

If Marte got the same deal, he’d be making $19 M in service years 3-6. He’d also be getting a guaranteed $11 M in 2019, which would be his first year of free agency. Plus he’d have an option for $14.5 M in 2020, which would be his second year of free agency. You’d like to see the Pirates get one more year added on, maybe with another $14.5 M option and another $2 M buyout.

If Marte signed such a deal, he’d be getting a maximum of $59 M over seven years. That’s an average of about $8.5 M per year, and only $34 M over five years would be guaranteed.

Andrew McCutchen gave up three years of free agency, and received a maximum of seven years and $65 M. That covered the same time span that Goldschmidt’s deal would cover for Marte (assuming Marte signs an actual extension that would add on to his league minimum in 2014). So I’d say that the maximum of 7/$59 for Marte would be appropriate. It’s a risk for the team, but we’ve seen from Andrew McCutchen that such a deal could be an extreme value if Marte continues to show improvements. There have been a lot of Marte/McCutchen comparisons going around. Two years ago I made a loftier comparison for Marte: Roberto Clemente. So yeah, I definitely think Marte will continue to show improvements, and think an extension like this would end up being a huge value for the Pirates.

Here’s the thing about a Marte extension that is different than McCutchen. McCutchen was a first round pick, and received $1.9 M. If he would have shattered his pelvis in year two of his career, he still would have been set for life. Or should have been set for life. Surprisingly that’s never a guarantee. On the other hand, Marte received an $85,000 signing bonus. In 2007. And most of that goes to the buscones. He spent five years in the minors, where players make next to nothing, and only get paid during the season. He was added to the 40-man roster for the 2012 season, making about $32,500 in the minors, and getting the league minimum in his time in the majors. This year he’s making $500,000, which is probably five times his career earnings.

McCutchen already had his big payday, then had all of the other earnings along the way. Right now Marte is at about a third of where McCutchen started, and that’s only at the end of this season. So the security of a guaranteed deal would be more important for Marte than McCutchen, since McCutchen probably had something to fall back on.

Once again, there has been no talk of a Marte extension yet. This is just wishful thinking. But it’s also getting to the point where it’s something the Pirates need to be seriously thinking about, just because this is what small market teams need to do.

A.J. Burnett is behind only Yu Darvish in strikeouts this year. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

We took a look on Monday at five Pirates hitters and which stats have a large enough 2013 sample size for us to see year-to-year changes.

Now it’s time for the pitchers. Remember a couple important caveats. First, batting statistics tend to be more reliable than pitching statistics, especially in small samples. Second, early-season pitcher performance can often be skewed by which teams the pitcher has faced. I’ve talked about the importance of strength of schedule in evaluating a team in April, and that idea is even more important when we are discussing a pitcher that has made seven starts at most.

For example, Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann has faced one of the weakest offensive schedules in baseball this season (Marlins twice, White Sox, Mets, Reds, Braves), while Oakland’s Jarrod Parker has faced one of the strongest (Angels twice, Tigers, Orioles, Rays, Indians, Mariners). Such a fact shouldn’t belittle Zimmermann’s strong April, nor should it completely excuse Parker’s bad numbers. It simply is something to consider when discussing early-season performance.

Quick note: while overall offensive numbers like OPS and runs are at their lowest in April, so are strikeout rates and strikeout-to-walk rates. The weather does not skew the numbers we will be looking at in the pitcher’s favor.

Keep in mind that this article wouldn’t exist without Russell A. Carleton’s (née Pizza Cutter) hard work on sample reliability, and the great stats available at FanGraphs. Here are Carleton’s determinations of sample size reliability for pitching stats:

• 150 Batters Faced – K/PA (strikeout rate), grounder rate, line drive rate
• 200 BF – flyball rate, GB/FB
• 500 BF – K/BB, pop up rate
• 550 BF – BB/PA

On to the Pirates! A.J. Burnett has faced 198 batters, so we will call the first five stats pretty reliable for him. As for the rest? Jeff Locke has faced 142 hitters, James McDonald has faced 138, Wandy Rodriguez has faced 129. Remember that these 150/200 plateaus are not necessarily “magic” numbers, they just represent about where correlation passes .70. If you want to learn more of the specifics, Carleton’s study is here.

1. A.J. Burnett could win the NL Strikeout crown.

The Pirates’ ace owns the National League lead with 66 strikeouts. Only the Mets’ Matt Harvey (58), the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw (56) and the Cubs’ Jeff Samardzija (52) are currently within shouting distance of Burnett.

Somehow, Burnett’s strikeout rate has taken an enormous leap from 21% last year (around his career average) to 33% this year. For Pirates fans, that is great to see, but how does a 36-year-old pitcher start striking out one out of every three hitters when he never has before in a full season? More to the point, how does Burnett have the fourth-highest swinging strike rate in the National League?

Let’s take a look at Burnett’s PitchFX numbers on Brooks Baseball. His two biggest strikeout pitchers are his curveball and his two-seam fastball, and the whiff rates have not substantially risen this year. Burnett has gotten more whiffs, though, on his four-seam fastball (8.8% vs. 6.4%).

What is also up a little bit is the number of called strikes. Last year, umpires called strikes on 18.7% of Burnett’s pitches. This year, they are calling strikes on 20% of his pitches, with the biggest increase coming on his four-seam fastball. Could the difference in pitch-framing ability between Russell Martin (who caught all of Burnett’s 2013 starts until Wednesday) and Rod Barajas (who caught all his 2012 starts except one) be a key factor in Burnett’s rising strikeout rate? It is certainly worth exploring.

2. Wandy Rodriguez is getting more strikeouts and fewer line drives. Good.

The left-hander’s strikeout rate is rising, though not as dramatically as that of Burnett. Rodriguez has struck out 19.4% of hitters this season (about career average) after a 16% strikeout rate last season. What is interesting here is that Rodriguez’s swinging strike rate, unlike Burnett’s, has barely budged from the 7% rate of 2012.

Instead, Rodriguez is benefitting from more strike calls.

• 2012: Called strikes on 18.9% of pitches
• 2013: Called strikes on 20.6% of pitches

Wandy Rodriguez is ringing up more hitters in his first full Pirates season. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

All six of Rodriguez’s starts have been caught by Martin, who was determined by Mike Fast’s study to be one of the best catchers in baseball at getting extra strike calls with just over one extra called strike per 100 pitches. It doesn’t seem at all impossible that Martin’s pitch framing could be earning Rodriguez an extra two strikes or an extra strikeout per start (his K/9 is up from 6.1 to 7.2 as well).

Another positive sign in Rodriguez’s numbers is that batters are hitting fewer line drives, on 16.3% of all batted balls this year compared to 20.5% last year. If Rodriguez had enough innings in 2012, he would have the 15th-best line drive rate among MLB pitchers. This improvement seems pretty reliable for a veteran pitcher learning to generate softer contact, even if won’t be enough to maintain a .227 BABIP all year.

3. James McDonald has generated softer contact, but his control has been off.

There is some good news to dig out of seeing “Bad James McDonald” in April. In McDonald’s first six starts, batters have been hitting more ground balls than last year (42% vs. 40%) and fewer line drives (17% vs. 21%). It is encouraging to see a pitcher entering his prime years start to generate weaker contact, and both the ground-ball and line-drive numbers are career bests for McDonald.

That fact is of little condolence to J-Mac, who now finds himself on the 15-day disabled list with a shoulder injury. While season walk numbers will not become reliable for a while, it was a point of frustration that McDonald was throwing a career-low 46% of pitches inside the strike zone (according to PitchFX) and a career-best 50% of pitches in the zone last season. McDonald’s control has always been dicey, so now the question is if his downturn in 2013 was due mostly to the shoulder issues.

One important note about Rodriguez and McDonald: they have faced relatively easy opponents in 2013. According to Baseball-Reference’s RA9opp stat, McDonald has faced the 11th-easiest opposition (out of 145 pitchers with at least four starts) and Rodriguez has faced the 15th-easiest opposition. Perhaps the stats demonstrating “softer contact” generated by these two pitchers are more the work of softer opponents.

4. The numbers point to future trouble for Jeff Locke.

Locke’s early season results have been an absolute delight: a 2.95 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and opponents hitting just .203 against him. Then there is this tweet from ESPN’s Jayson Stark:

How bout this: Jeff Locke has allowed 3 hits or fewer in 4 straight starts. How many other #Pirates in live-ball era have done that? None!

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) May 10, 2013

All of that makes it look like Jeff Locke is putting it together in his age-25 season. But almost every peripheral stat this year spells doom for the left-hander.

• Strikeout Rate: 13%, which is 108th of 121 MLB starters with 30+ innings, less than his 22% AAA strikeout rate.
• Walk Rate: 11.5%, which is 115th of 121 qualified MLB starters, much higher than his 7.5% AAA walk rate.
• Line Drive Rate: 24%, which is 103rd lowest of 121 qualified MLB starters.
• Ground Ball Rate: 46%, which is 58th of 121 qualified MLB starters.
• BABIP: .214, after posting a .310 BABIP (in few innings) his first two MLB seasons and a .297 BABIP in AAA.

In short, Locke gave up very few hits in his first seven starts despite not striking guys out, giving up a lot of line drives and only giving up about a league-average rate of ground balls. There may be no better candidate out there for BABIP-induced regression than Locke, especially because it’s not like he is deceiving hitters with his pitches in the zone. Batters have made contact on 92% of Locke’s pitches in the strike zone, according to PitchFX, which is among the 20 highest rates among MLB starters.

Good luck, Jeff Locke.

Well, I guess he has already had a lot of good luck this season.

Good… throwing of baseballs?

FanGraphs projects Andrew McCutchen to finish the season with a 5.4 WAR. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

FanGraphs unveiled two new features Thursday, depth charts and projected standings. Supreme Overlord of FanGraphs (unofficial title) Dave Cameron explains how they work and how to use them. The key takeaway is that the standings use a combination of ZIPS and Steamer projection systems, along with the depth charts, to suss out season records for all 30 teams.

One purpose we can use the projected standings for is looking at the Pirates’ playoff chances. FanGraphs is pretty optimistic on the Bucs’ playoff chances, projecting an 84-78 record, tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks just one game behind both the Washington Nationals and the Cincinnati Reds for a Wild Card spot. The FanGraphs projections see the Pirates scoring more runs as the season goes on, but also giving up more for about an even run differential.

Let’s compare the FanGraphs numbers to my two other preferred playoff projections from Baseball Prospectus and from Clay Davenport, the co-founder of Baseball Prospectus.

• FanGraphs: 84-78, +10 run differential
• Prospectus: 82-80, -2 run differential, 30.9% chance to make playoffs
• Davenport: 82-80, 30.7% chance to make playoffs

All three sites project the Pirates to end up with a winning season, but just barely. What’s also important is that the Pirates’ target should be 87 wins, which would be enough to grab the second Wild Card in all three systems.

Also, the projections appear to have the Bucs’ record outperforming their run differential a little bit, which makes sense if the team’s bullpen continues to perform well. Good late-inning pitching is the most common reason for a team’s record outpacing its run differential.

FanGraphs’ depth charts offer a free alternative to those from Baseball Prospectus, which are based on PECOTA projections and require a subscription. The biggest difference between the two sites for the Pirates is that FanGraphs is more optimistic about the rest of the season for Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, which explains why it projects a better record for the Bucs than Baseball Prospectus does.

What should the Pirates do with Jordy Mercer when Neil Walker returns?

Neil Walker is starting a rehab assignment with the Altoona Curve on Thursday, and could be in line to rejoin the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend. Walker being out has created an opportunity for Jordy Mercer to get some playing time in the majors. So far, Mercer is 3-for-15 with a double and a home run in that time. Mercer also had a .333/.404/.448 line in 109 plate appearances in Triple-A before coming up, with an impressive 11% walk rate and a low 15.6% strikeout rate.

“Jordy’s done some really good things here in a short period of time at the major league level. He did some great things in Spring Training. And he’s done some really good things in Triple-A,” Pirates General Manager Neal Huntington said on Sunday. “He’s taken a good step forward.”

The big question with Mercer is more of a long-term question: can he start at shortstop? The Pirates are committed to Clint Barmes at short for the immediate future, placing a high value on his defensive skills. But Barmes is a free agent following the 2013 season. The free agent class doesn’t have many strong options next year, which means the Pirates will be left with another Barmes-type free agent (all defense, no bat), or one of their internal options. Mercer would be the favorite if they go with an internal option to replace Barmes.

The question is, how do you get Mercer to the majors? He’s been getting playing time in the majors only because Neil Walker has been injured. Once Walker returns, the Pirates will have to decide whether to keep Mercer up in a bench role, or send him back down to get everyday playing time.

“The challenge with any player that’s breaking into the big leagues is do you break him in? In a role with the idea that he becomes an everyday guy as we did back in the day with Walker? Or do you send him back out, let him play on a regular basis, and then he just comes right in as a regular?” Huntington said of Mercer making the jump to the majors. ”We want to make sure we give Jordy the appropriate development time to continue to grow, because he is an option for us at short next year, and we have to give ourselves as many options as we can.”

The focus for Mercer should be on the 2014 season, but what is the best approach to get him ready for the majors? You want him to get as much playing time as possible, but you also would like to see what he could do in the majors before committing to him for a full season.

If Mercer played on the bench, his playing time would be limited. John McDonald has been a disaster off the bench, and it would certainly be welcome to see Mercer replace him. But McDonald only has 29 plate appearances on the season in a little over a month. That’s hardly the type of playing time you’d want to see Mercer receive. If that’s the option, then he’s better off in Triple-A.

It’s not like bench players can’t receive playing time. Brandon Inge is an example. Inge has been on the roster for a little over two weeks, and already has 35 plate appearances. He has started nine games, getting time at second base, third base, and right field. Mercer wouldn’t be an option for right field, but he could play second, third, and short. As I wrote last night, he could also be an option against left-handers, since he’s had some success against lefties in his career. That would allow Mercer to ease in to the majors, get adjusted to major league pitching, and all while seeing somewhat regular playing time. Getting adjusted is key, since Mercer usually struggles with the bat in his initial jump to a new level. Looking at his Double-A and Triple-A numbers:

Double-A: .702 OPS in 2010, .816 in 2011

Triple-A: .689 OPS in 2010, .778 in 2011, .852 in 2012

The Pirates feel that Mercer can stick at shortstop. He hasn’t played the position as much throughout the minors, but that’s mostly because he’s been at the same level as Chase d’Arnaud.

“He and Chase have always seemed to be at the same club, and Chase has had more shortstop time because he’s not as polished a shortstop as Jordy is,” Huntington said. He also noted that d’Arnaud’s injury allowed the Pirates to give Mercer time at short to sharpen things up with his game. D’Arnaud could be starting a rehab assignment later this month, and is already back to baseball activities.

I talked with Pirates Director of Minor League Operations Larry Broadway a few weeks ago about Mercer being an option at short. Broadway noted that Mercer is a vanilla type, but can make the routine plays.

“He’s very reliable,” Broadway said. “There’s nothing flashy about him. He’s a vanilla type and reliable. You can count on him to make the routine plays.”

It’s pretty much established that the Pirates like Mercer, and feel he could be an option next year. But that does bring up the question of how to get him ready. Personally I think they should keep him in the majors. Give him all of the at-bats that John McDonald would normally get. Give him time as a platoon player, taking at-bats against left-handers in place of Pedro Alvarez, or even Neil Walker. Let him sub for Clint Barmes, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez when needed. The only problem with all of this is that Mercer would have to be on the depth chart ahead of Brandon Inge, and I’m not convinced Clint Hurdle would take that approach. The only hopeful sign that would suggest otherwise is that Mercer has started all four games since coming up, and Brandon Inge has been on the bench for two of those games.

If the Pirates continue making Mercer a priority over Inge, and get rid of John McDonald instead of sending Mercer to Triple-A, then I think that would be a much better approach to getting Mercer ready for 2014. Not to mention, it might even make the 2013 team better.

Andrew McCutchen’s offensive numbers are down, but his approach is better than ever. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

It’s a three-word term you will hear often early in the season: small sample size.

Carlos Gomez leads the NL in batting average? Small sample size. Chris Davis is second in the majors in OPS? Small sample size. B.J. Upton is last in the NL in on-base percentage?

You get the point.

But not all early-season statistics are unreliable noise. If you’re looking in the right places, you can find stats that are indicative of a player’s true talent, and pretty good predictors about what he will do the rest of the year.

The best studies on the reliability of sample sizes have been done by Russell A. Carleton, first under the alias “Pizza Cutter” in 2007 and revised in 2012 under his own name for Baseball Prospectus.

At this point in the season, the rate stats that have a large enough sample for everyday players are those that measure contact, swings, strikeouts, walks and line drives. If you want to learn more about how reliability is measured and when other stats will become reliable, Carleton’s studies are linked above. But basically, the stats with a large enough sample measure what a hitter is doing with his bat, and not really what happens once it enters the field of play (doubles, home runs, power numbers, etc).

So what do we know about the 2013 Pirates based on these numbers?

1. Andrew McCutchen is better than ever at the plate.

Still concerned about McCutchen’s offensive numbers? Take a look at his OPS in the month of April over the years:

• 2010: .796 OPS
• 2011: .747 OPS
• 2012: .723 OPS
• 2013: .731 OPS

The Pirates’ center fielder has always looked pedestrian to begin the season. Maybe the slow starts are because he is a Florida native who does not hit as well in the cold weather. Whatever the reason, McCutchen always turns it around, with an OPS above .900 in May, June and July.

His early lack of production is also due to some bad luck on balls in play, earning just a .258 BABIP compared to a more reliable .322 career BABIP (which is weird, since McCutchen has hit fewer ground balls than last year). I’m optimistic about McCutchen because of what he has been doing with his bat instead of what has happened after the ball has been put into play.

PitchFX Contact Rate:

• 2011: Made contact on 80% of swings, swung at 20% of pitches outside the strike zone
• 2012: Made contact on 78% of swings, swung at 22% of pitches outside the strike zone
• 2013: Made contact on 82% of swings, swung at 20% of pitches outside the strike zone

These are little changes in the numbers, but it is very encouraging to see McCutchen make little improvements at the plate. Most importantly, his strikeout rate has dropped to 13% this season from just under 20% last year. McCutchen is becoming a tougher out for pitchers, and that must scare some opposing teams.

2. You should start worrying about Pedro Alvarez… maybe.

First, the bad news about Alvarez:

• 2012: 71% contact rate, 48% swing rate, 10% walk rate
• 2013: 63% contact rate, 53% swing rate, 7% walk rate

This is all bad news with regards to Alvarez’s discipline and results. He is swinging at a lot more pitches, hitting a lot fewer of them, and thus his ability to get on-base is suffering. And when Alvarez struggles like this, it can be really tough to watch in the middle of the lineup.

The redemption here? As with McCutchen, April has always been the cruelest month for the third baseman. Over Alvarez’s career, he has had the lowest OPS and the highest strikeout-to-walk ratio in April. The first month of the season has always been a struggle, but in June and July, Alvarez starts to walk about 10% of the time and hit homers in more than 5% of at-bats. And like McCutchen, Alvarez has had bad luck so far on balls in play (.210 BABIP).

MINORS: Stetson Allie’s Power Numbers Are The Best In The System

The hope is that at age 26, Alvarez would have a better plate approach in the early part of the year. He has not made the adjustments yet, though, so Pirates fans will once again have to hope that the warmer weather heats up Pedro’s bat.

3. Starling Marte is adjusting really well to Major League pitching.

Is Starling Marte this year’s Mike Trout? No, but it may be close. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

MLB.com’s Power Rankings dropped a Mike Trout comparison to Marte’s phenomenal start. We’ll file that one under the “getting ahead of themselves” category, but the Pirates’ left fielder has been incredibly impressive early on. He is 4th among National League hitters in Wins Above Replacement and 12th in wRC+ offensively. Those stats show Marte’s great production, but they aren’t reliable predictors for the future.

What we do know is that the 24-year-old is less overwhelmed by Big League pitchers. He has made contact on 80% of his swings this season, compared to just 72% of swings last season. That improvement has helped Marte fix one of his biggest flaws coming up through the Pirates’ system: strikeouts. Marte’s season strikeout rate is down to 22% after he struck out in 27.5% of plate appearances last year.

Yes, his BABIP will drop from the unsustainable .398 it is at currently. But Marte is getting the bat on the baseball, and that is very important for a leadoff hitter with the speed to reach base on all sorts of ground balls.

4. The aging curve is already starting to eat away at Garrett Jones.

It’s not a huge problem to see Jones’ power numbers slide a little bit. He is 31 going on 32, and even the late bloom from Jones will not be able to last all the way through his thirtysomethings.

What we have seen that is concerning for Jones this season, though, is that his timing looks to be a bit off. Over his career, and even last year, Jones has made contact on 77% of his swings. This year, that percentage has dropped to just 69%. The drop is especially visible on pitches outside the strike zone (51% contact rate this year vs. 65% career).

ANALYSIS: Teams Should Shift Their Infield More Often Against Garrett Jones

Perhaps Jones will have to be more selective on what pitches he pulls the trigger. He is in a specialized hitting role now, facing right-handed pitchers almost exclusively, and should focus on getting his timing lined up against those righties to avoid sky-rocketing strikeout numbers.

5. Greetings to the more disciplined — and more productive — Russell Martin.

Let’s break out the bullet points once again, this time for the Pirates’ catcher.

• 2012: 80% contact rate, 42% swing rate, 20% strikeout rate
• 2013: 86% contact rate, 38% swing rate, 11% strikeout rate

All of this is very exciting to see from the most expensive free agent in team history. Maybe Huntington finally got one of these signings right.

While Martin hitting the ball on 86% of his swings does not put him among the Marco Scutaros of the world of great contact hitter, it does represent a career-best for the catcher. His strikeout and swing numbers are also at career lows, which is a great trend to see.

His home run rate will almost certainly go down with more games at PNC Park, but the improved plate discipline we are seeing will continue to make Martin an offensive asset. It looks like manager Clint Hurdle rightly wants Martin’s bat in the lineup as much as possible, whether he catches or fields at third base.

Later this week, we will take a look at some early-season numbers from Pirates’ starting pitchers, including A.J. Burnett transforming himself for the better and why Jeff Locke could be headed for disaster.

**Minor League Recaps with a look at Gerrit Cole, Stolmy Pimentel, Casey Sadler, the weak Altoona offense, Gregory Polanco, Alen Hanson, Zack Dodson, Joely Rodriguez, and Barrett Barnes.

**John Dreker joins the show to discuss some of the draft prospects who could be in the Pirates’ range with their two first round picks.

With James and Tom:

**The eventual return of guys like Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton, and what it means for the rotation.

**The hot start by the Pirates in April, which came against a strong schedule.

**The lack of sex…err, success against the Dodgers.

**The surprising performances on offense by guys not named Andrew McCutchen or Pedro Alvarez.

**Weird podcasting: Mascot races, whether they’re fixed, and wishing harm on Bernie the Brewer.

Player Interview

**This week’s player interview is with Robby Rowland. Robby and I discuss his transition to a sinkerball pitcher, how he used Charlie Morton as a model for his pitching, and we play “Top Five”, with Robby revealing that he hates vegetables and almost threw up once when he tried eating a salad.

Click here to download the show (right-click and “Save Link As”) or stream it below.