One issue I’ve always had with the deadline is that it sort of peer pressures you into making a move. A contender is good enough to be one of the best teams in the league for two-thirds of the season, but if they don’t add that key piece at the deadline they’ll fall apart and have no chance the final third of the season. The trade deadline is all about the grass being greener on the other side, mistaking wants and needs, and just general tinkering to the roster out of fear that you won’t make the necessary moves while you still can.

I’ve never believed that every contending team needs to make a big move at the deadline. Just look at the Rays in 2008. They didn’t make a move and were criticized for it. They went on to the World Series. Before you suggest that a move could have won the World Series, I’ll point out that there are way more teams who make moves at the deadline each year and don’t even make the series. Plus, the Rays weren’t “one player away” from winning that series. So, no.

One of the biggest praises I’ve heard about the Pirates this year from people on the outside has been about their depth. We’ve already seen that depth step up with guys like Jeanmar Gomez, Vin Mazzaro, Bryan Morris, Jordy Mercer, and soon we’ll see it with the guys returning from injuries. Adding Francisco Liriano was like making a huge in-season trade. Adding Charlie Morton in a few weeks will be like making two trades. They’ll upgrade the rotation, and they’ll give the bullpen a boost by moving Jeanmar Gomez back to long relief.

So do the Pirates really need to make a move? Let’s look at the state of each position.

Charlie Morton’s performance when he returns will go a long way to determining whether the Pirates need to add a starter at the deadline.

The Rotation

In the early part of the season the rotation has tapped into the depth to the extreme that Jeanmar Gomez will make his fifth start tomorrow. Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens are both working their way back from injuries. Kyle McPherson and Phil Irwin both are on the Triple-A DL. Gerrit Cole doesn’t look close to being ready for the majors. If a starter goes down before Morton or Karstens return, the Pirates would have to turn to Andy Oliver, who has a 2.87 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 53.1 innings in Triple-A, but also has 39 walks in that time.

Morton should be back in early June, as he has three rehab starts left. Karstens won’t be too far behind. Morton will replace Gomez in the rotation, while Karstens will likely go to the bullpen. That would make Gomez the seventh starter on the depth chart, rather than having him fifth. We’re not even talking about James McDonald here.

The top of the rotation looks good with A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez. Francisco Liriano has been an extremely pleasant surprise so far in his first three starts. Jeff Locke is due for regression, but should still settle in around a solid number four starter. Adding Morton as a fourth or fifth starter could have some value.

It wouldn’t hurt the Pirates to make a splash and add a pitcher on the trade market, much in the same way they added Rodriguez last year. They can probably hold off on any decisions until they see what Morton and Karstens will do. That said, they can’t depend on Burnett, Rodriguez, Liriano, Morton, and Locke to remain healthy the rest of the year. They also need to be cautious with Locke, as he could wear down late in the season pitching extended innings. I’d say the need for a starter is minor. If they have to give up a top prospect, stick with the internal options. If they can get a Rodriguez deal, go for it and add to the depth.

The Bullpen

All the talk has been on the bullpen, but the Pirates don’t really need depth. As David Todd pointed out tonight, Morton will push Gomez to the bullpen, and Karstens will add to the pen. I wrote a few weeks ago how the Triple-A relievers will also provide depth. And it’s not like the Pirates would go out and trade for an established reliever. That’s not their style. If they add any bullpen depth, it will likely be through minor trades or waiver wire claims. Those guys would be no better than the options already in the system. I wouldn’t say this is a need at all.

The biggest problem the Pirates seem to have with the bullpen is who goes out when Morton and Karstens return? I could see Bryan Morris going down, just because he’s one of few with options. He’s pitched well, but you could DFA Vin Mazzaro, since they wouldn’t need him with Karstens and Gomez on the roster, and they’ve got options who are just as good in Triple-A. When you’re talking about waiving a guy with a 2.87 ERA in 15.2 innings, with good K/BB ratios, you don’t have a bullpen need.

Catcher

Russell Martin is holding things down, and if he gets injured they have Tony Sanchez waiting to take over in Triple-A. Sanchez is hitting, and has better defense than Michael McKenry. He could also replace McKenry if he goes down.

First Base

The first base platoon is working, so no need to make an upgrade.

Second Base

Neil Walker isn’t having a good year. He’s got a .234/.341/.306 line this year. By comparison, Clint Barmes has a .228/.273/.307 line. Walker is getting on-base more, but otherwise he’s on par with Barmes, who doesn’t get a free pass. If Walker was from anywhere else other than Pittsburgh, there would be demands to replace him. He hasn’t hit lefties in his career, and he’s only got a .653 OPS against right-handers. At the least the Pirates should consider platooning him, giving Jordy Mercer some time at second against lefties. I don’t see the Pirates upgrading Walker’s position outside of a platoon.

Shortstop

I mentioned the numbers from Barmes above. The Pirates love him for his defense. I like Barmes for the defense, and feel that the team can afford to lose some offense at short for that defense up the middle. They’ve got a few above-average ground ball pitchers, which makes that defense important. They’re also getting offense from catcher and center field, which means they can afford to lose some offense at one position.

Third Base

Pedro Alvarez is doing his normal routine. On the season he is slumping, but he has started to heat up lately. He looks like a platoon option, and the Pirates have been going that route, benching him against more and more left-handers. I’m not sure that Brandon Inge is the answer here, since he’s gone downhill against lefties the last two years. That is continuing this year with a .524 OPS in a small sample size.

The Pirates could platoon second and third base, and it wouldn’t hurt the bench since they’d always have two infielders available. I think Mercer would be fine for the platoon at second. They have some internal options who could be better at third, but might want to look for outside help as well. The internal options include Matt Hague, Jared Goedert, and Chase d’Arnaud. All three of those guys hit lefties very well, and have played third base.

Left Field

There’s a #MartePartay going on, and there’s no need to stop it.

Center Field

I’d say the Pirates are set here.

Right Field

Travis Snider and Jose Tabata are both doing a good job of hitting right-handers. The problem is that neither player is hitting lefties. This would be another good platoon option, although there are two problems. First, Snider and Tabata are each out of options, so you’d have to get rid of one of them to make room for a guy who can hit lefties. That creates the problem of which one do you choose? The Pirates aren’t going to get much in return for either player by trading them since they’re both looking like platoon guys. If they find the right circumstance, they might be able to deal for a platoon option to hit lefties. Or they could just ride it out and hope one of the two starts hitting left-handers. If they go for an internal option, Jerry Sands would be a guy who can help, as I wrote today.

The Needs

The Pirates might have a need for a starting pitcher, but that will depend on how well Charlie Morton does when he returns, and whether the current starters can keep this up. There’s no need to deal a top prospect for a starter as long as they’re getting this production from the rotation.

The bullpen will be helped by the return of Morton and Karstens. There’s also plenty of options in Triple-A.

The offense is set at catcher, first base, left field, and center field.

Second base, third base, and right field could be upgraded with platoon options who can hit left-handers, although there are internal options for each position.

The offense from the shortstop position is weak, but the defense helps to make up for that.

The Pirates could try to go for an everyday player to fill one of their platoon needs at second, third, or right field. However, I’d say they should take the Wandy Rodriguez approach here. If someone could be had for a cheap price, go for it. If it costs top prospects, go with the cheaper internal options.

At this point the Pirates are contenders and one of the best teams in the NL. That could change as the season goes on. However, they’re about to get a boost in the rotation with Charlie Morton, and in turn a boost in the bullpen. They’ve already got the depth in place for pretty much every position. They’ve got cheap ways to upgrade their weak positions with platoon players. They just added what could be a huge upgrade in Liriano. If they start struggling, the needs could change. Right now I don’t see any urgent needs that they would have to fill externally by the deadline.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Prospect Notebook: Jerry Sands Could Be a Good In-Season Addition For the Pirates.

**Is Stetson Allie a Future All-Star, Platoon Player, or Minor League Director?

**Pirates Notebook: Snider’s Slam Swing Sustains Strong Start.

**Draft Notes: Jim Callis Draft Chat Recap and News.

**Prospect Watch: Gregory Polanco and Alen Hanson Combine For Eight Hits.

**Francisco Liriano Digs Up A Gem In 1-0 Pirates Win.

**Minor League Schedule: Glasnow Starts Tonight, Morning Start For Altoona

Before you “aww like a puppy died”, as Louis CK would say, know that one of his most accurate jokes is how divorce is always good news. In a “Tim Williams” quote, rather than using a Louis CK quote, I can tell you there are things I no longer have to do. For example, I never have to step foot in a Pottery Barn again. If Michael’s is having a 50 percent off sale on frames, I don’t have to walk around the store finding something interesting, or try to run out the clock looking at cats at PetSmart next door. If I see a hot girl in a bar, I can talk to her, fail to pick her up, then go home and masturbate thinking about her without any guilt. OK, that last one was Louis CK inspired.

There’s one Louis CK divorce quote that I thought about in a different way tonight. I’ll post the quote below, then try to tie it into baseball so this isn’t just an excuse to talk about Louis CK. Plus we’re like three paragraphs in, and hardly any baseball talk.

“It’s hard to start again after a marriage. It’s hard to really look at someone and go ‘Maybe something nice will happen’. I know too much about life to have any optimism. I know even if it’s nice, it’s going to lead to shit. I know if you smile at somebody and they smile back, you’ve just decided something shitty is going to happen. You might have a nice couple of dates but then she’ll stop calling you back and that’ll feel shitty. Or you’ll date for a long time and then she’ll have sex with one of your friends or you will with one of hers and that will be shitty. Or you’ll get married and it won’t work out and you’ll get divorced and split your friends and money and that’s horrible. Or you’ll meet the perfect person who you love infinitely and you even argue well and you grow together and you have children and then you get old together and then SHE’S GONNA DIE.

That’s the BEST CASE SCENARIO, is that you’re gonna lose your best friend and then just walk home from D’agostino’s with heavy bags every day and wait for your turn to be nothing also.”

-Louis CK

That “I know too much to have any optimism” part is kind of the way I feel about advanced statistics. In the past, back before I knew about AB/HR, strand rates, or BABIP, I would look at a starter like Jeff Locke and think “that guy could be an ace”. Now I know too much. I don’t even look at the ERA. I look at the FIP numbers. And because of that, I know things aren’t going to be as good for Locke in the future.

James Santelli wrote about that subject this afternoon. I’ve written about pitchers regression using FIP a lot in the past. There was one notable article back in 2011 when the Pirates were contending, but almost every single pitcher was performing above their heads. If you look at the comments in both articles, you’ll see a lot of the same arguments.

You should totally enjoy Jeff Locke’s start to the year. But realize it probably won’t continue this way.

1. Let’s just enjoy it.

I don’t want to pick on Lee Young, because I like Lee. But I did laugh when I saw the same response from Lee in two articles about the same topic separated by about two years. And you know what? Lee is right. You should totally enjoy it.

I can’t tell you how much I enjoyed watching Locke’s last start where he went seven shutout innings, giving up just three hits. Sure, it was against the Astros, but it was still nice to see. It was the same way against a better team when he threw seven shutout innings against the Cardinals. I’ve covered Jeff since he first entered the organization. I’ve always liked talking to him, and I’ve always pulled for him to succeed.

But there’s a line you have to draw when you’re covering a team. You need compartmentalization skills. Locke is a good guy who I always enjoy talking to, and who I wish to succeed. But none of that can enter into the evaluation of him on the site. And neither can anyone else who is on the site. It’s our job to point out things like “Jeff Locke has a 4.48 FIP”, and explain that he’s probably going to regress. We’re not saying “don’t enjoy this”. We’re kind of saying “enjoy it while it lasts”.

There was also a “hater” comment on Twitter, which I found funny. It was only two months ago where this site was saying Locke should be in the rotation while so many were saying he should be a reliever or in Triple-A. Now we’re saying that he’s not a top of the rotation guy, but a strong number four starter. Again, it’s just part of the job to point these things out. It’s not “hating”.

You should totally enjoy what Locke is doing. And if you hope that Locke defies the odds and becomes the next Jeremy Hellickson, then go for it. I hope that happens too. I’m not sure any Pirates fan would be any different. But that would be the exception, not the rule, and that’s not the way to lean when presenting analysis.

2. Why Can’t Locke Be Different?

You could almost make a “Five Stages of FIP Grief” article out of this. The most common thing I see is a sort of bargaining/denial approach where you hope that Locke (or anyone else) is the exception to the FIP rule. Maybe there is something magical about him that leads to a lower FIP? (Statistically, there probably isn’t.) Maybe it’s the defense, manager, or some other team factor is helping him? (Then why do other pitchers have a FIP that is much closer to their ERA?) Maybe the stats aren’t reliable? (Which is more likely: a group of stats trusted by a lot of very smart people are unreliable because they’re predicting a regression about one player, or that one player is going to regress and the stats are correct?)

As James pointed out in his article today, the chances that Locke is the exception are extremely low. Like I mentioned in #1, we all hope that he’s the exception. But the odds are heavily leaning towards the rule, which means Locke is likely headed for regression.

3. What About (Insert player who doesn’t apply to the conversation, suggesting that the stats would have been wrong about him)?

In that 2011 article, someone brought up Jose Bautista, saying that he discredits the approach of “here is what he will do going forward, based on his past stats”. I’m not sure how Bautista applies to pitching, but I kind of see the general point. That’s also a good point to make. All we can do with stats is look at them, analyze them, and use them to try and predict what will happen in the future. But players will improve. It might not always be as drastic as Bautista’s improvement.

I picked on Lee earlier in this article, so I’ll give him credit for something he brought up today. Locke’s FIP since his first three starts is around 3.45. He’s walking fewer batters, striking out more, and that’s leading to better numbers. The question is, can you take out those first three starts? Do they represent something that Locke is still capable of? Or has he moved on, and the last six starts are a reflection of the pitcher he will be going forward? If it’s the former, then his season FIP holds up. If it’s the latter, then he’s going to be a better pitcher than his FIP indicates, and the regression won’t be as steep.

The key here is that Locke controls his future. ERA and FIP both tell the same story. They focus on the past and what a player has done. You use those to predict what a player can do in the future. Everyone does this. Even if you’re campaigning against FIP, you’re doing this. You’re just doing it with ERA. FIP just happens to be a better indicator going forward.

But that’s all based on the past. If Locke starts striking out more and walking less (like he has been in the last six starts), then he’s going to see a lower FIP. That’s because he will be a different pitcher than what the overall stats say. Just like ERA, a FIP can go up and down with more data. It looks at the entire season, and the more data you get, the more things can change. So Locke’s FIP can go down, although it’s not guaranteed, and it’s not the only possibility. There’s also reason to believe that Locke could go this route, since he did have strikeouts all throughout the minors, and had much better control than what we’ve seen so far.

In another “Player who doesn’t apply to the conversation” topic, there was discussion about Tom Glavine today. In his best years (1991-2000), Glavine had a 3.13 ERA and a 3.56 FIP. So he outperformed the numbers, but not to the extreme that Locke is out-performing his numbers this year. And that’s another case where you’ve got a player who has done that for a long time. Locke has out-performed his FIP over nine starts.

The Purpose of the Stats

A few weeks ago Colin Wyers wrote a great article at Baseball Prospectus about sabermetrics, and the proper way to use stats. The article talked about how stats are used incorrectly these days, aimed at ending discussions, rather than starting them. I felt the article today about Locke brought about some great conversation. It looked at what was most likely going to happen, but at the same time there were some great discussion points. Without the article, are we going to dig into Locke’s numbers and see that he has turned things around after his first three starts? Chances are we’ll now be watching him closer to see if he continues pitching like the last six starts, while avoiding looking like the guy from the first three starts.

However, we also need to consider what we know, and just like the Louis CK quote above, we know too much. We’ve been through this before. We went in with the denial and optimism that something nice would happen. And what was the result in 2011?

Pitcher – ERA at the time / xFIP at the time / ERA the remainder of the season

Paul Maholm – 3.08/4.15/5.03

Jeff Karstens – 2.55/3.81/4.66

Charlie Morton – 3.80/3.71/3.86

Kevin Correia – 3.74/4.15/7.68

James McDonald – 4.40/4.50*/3.93

Some of those pitchers regressed too far. Morton was accurate. I noted McDonald’s xFIP because I did a separate study looking at his season minus the first four starts. He got a late start in Spring Training, and probably started the year too soon. That led to some poor outings, and he was excellent after those first four starts. But the xFIP was in the 4.00 range. So his ERA the rest of the year was in line with the xFIP when you took out those first four starts. That’s a case where FIP correctly predicted improvement on the season numbers.

We know that when it comes to FIP predicting a future regression, chances are we’re not going to see “something nice happen”. Instead we’re going to see the expected regression. In those rare cases the pitcher will avoid a regression. But that’s probably because he changes the way he pitches, leading to things like increased strikeouts and decreased walks. In turn, his FIP will also go lower, meaning you’re not going to see a pitcher finishing with the extreme separation that Locke has.

Whether you believe any of this or not doesn’t matter. It’s not like Locke will regress because we point out his FIP, or that he’ll avoid that if enough people doubt the validity of FIP. The hope is that the focus on FIP can lead to three things: preparation, discussion, and enjoyment. Prepare for what is most likely going to happen. Discuss the chances of that happening, including what Locke could do to improve his FIP. Most importantly, enjoy what is currently happening, especially since the chances are strong that it won’t last.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Sorry, Jeff Locke, You Won’t Keep Dominating.

**Draft Prospects: Averaging Out The Expert’s Mock Drafts.

**Jose Contreras Activated From Bereavement List, Jared Hughes Optioned.

**Vic Black Leaves Game With Unknown Injury.

**Pirates Notebook: Jeff Karstens Talks Rehab, Role With Team.

**Travis Snider’s Grand Slam Lifts Pirates to 5-4 Win.

**Snider’s Grand Slam Explodes Twitter, Or Does It?.

**Prospect Watch: Stetson Allie Homers Twice; Sands, Sanchez, and Herrera Also Homer.

**Minor League Schedule: Holmes With The Morning Start Today.

There have been a few changes. Stolmy Pimentel was added when Justin Wilson made the majors at the start of the year. Pimentel wasn’t in the system when we compiled our original top 50 in the Prospect Guide.

Jordy Mercer has also been moved up one spot to number 20 now that it looks like Bryan Morris is in the majors to stay. I’m holding off on removing Mercer until we see what happens when John McDonald or Chase d’Arnaud return. Of course, Mercer is only 27 at-bats away from losing prospect status. Either way, Gift Ngoepe would be next. That’s not an exciting player to follow for his offensive stat line. Ngoepe was there primarily for his defense and speed, and will probably drop during the mid-season rankings.

The question about Allie is something I’ve given a lot of thought to. We update the rankings a few times per year. There’s the rankings for the book, the rankings after the draft, and an update after the trade deadline. Since the post-draft rankings are coming up, there have been a lot of questions I’ve been asking to prepare for the new list. The obvious question is “where do the new picks rank?” The Stetson Allie question is definitely included. Here are some of the others.

Gerrit Cole or Jameson Taillon?

Probably the biggest debate for anyone will be the debate between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon for the top spot. Cole is having trouble this year, while Taillon has been performing well. I try to avoid placing too much of a focus on in-season results, since it’s easy to place too much emphasis on the most recent starts, rather than the tools, the potential upside, and other important factors. One important factor is that Cole is in Triple-A, and Taillon is in Double-A. So it would seem unfair  to compare their results this year.

That said, I’ve had Taillon closer to Cole than a lot of people. So the gap before this season wasn’t that big for me, meaning it’s not like Taillon has to improve considerably to take the top spot.

Is Gregory Polanco the top prospect in the system?

But What About Gregory Polanco?

I try to start from scratch when I’m setting up my own rankings. So I don’t start with Cole and Taillon at the top. I usually try to divide everyone up into tiers, then go through the “splitting hairs” process to give actual numbers. At this point I would say that Polanco is definitely in that top tier with Cole and Taillon. I talked to a scout a few weeks ago who mentioned that every time he sees Polanco he improves something about his game. That’s pretty much been the case. There’s not a lot to dislike. He hits for average, power, hits to all fields, doesn’t strike out a lot, and draws a lot of walks. He’s got speed on the bases and a lot of range in center field. The things he’s got to work on are more about experience, and less about his skills.

To give an idea of Polanco’s potential, Ben Badler was asked who had more upside between Polanco or Starling Marte. He answered Polanco.

Polanco RT @zasman more upside: Starling Marte or Gregory Polanco?

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) May 19, 2013

We’ve gotten a glimpse of what Marte is capable of this year. If Polanco has that kind of upside, and I can’t really argue against it, then it’s hard to not consider him for the top spot in the system.

Travis Sawchik of the Trib seems to have immediately become a Polanco fan, getting a Dave Parker comparison from one scout, and another scout saying Polanco has more power potential than Oscar Taveras. Two more strong cases for Polanco.

Does Alen Hanson Drop?

I wrote about Alen Hanson today, noting that his defense and his hitting have both done a 180 after his early season struggles. Hanson has been playing good defense, and has been hitting better since being benched for a few games in mid-April to clear his head. I’m not sure that he’d drop, since I don’t think that two bad weeks should play a huge impact in his long-term value. The talent and potential has been there. You can see the skills that would allow him to stick at shortstop. If he did drop, I couldn’t see him dropping out of the top five.

Where to Place Josh Bell?

Josh Bell dropped in the rankings from 2012 to 2013, mostly because other people passed him. Those other people were Polanco and Hanson. Nothing really changed for his upside. He just missed a year. Now he’s back, and he’s hitting for a .283/.360/.470 line with six homers in 166 at-bats. Those aren’t monster numbers, but they’re pretty solid. He’s also shown improvements in May with a 16:13 BB/K ratio and an .878 OPS in 65 at-bats. The BB/K ratio is a strong indicator for upper level success.

How Far Up Does Tyler Glasnow Go?

I’ve been high on Glasnow, which is a big reason why he ended up eighth in our rankings this year, even though I was the only one who had him in the top ten. Occasionally I’ll ignore everyone’s rankings and place a guy where I like him. In my defense, it’s my career that’s mostly at stake, but I do try to limit that to certain players (Glasnow and Nick Kingham being recent examples). I wrote at the start of the year that Glasnow could have the upside of Cole and Taillon. The problem is that he has a lower floor, so you can’t stick him in that top tier. He’s putting up monster numbers right now, with a plus fastball and a plus curveball. I would probably rank him ahead of Luis Heredia, since he’s further along, and only a year older. So Glasnow might end up in my top five. I thought the #8 ranking at the start of the year might have been too aggressive, but now it looks like it might have been to low.

How Far Up Can Nick Kingham Go?

Nick Kingham is also having a great season this year in Bradenton. The problem is that he doesn’t have the top of the rotation upside that Cole, Taillon, or Glasnow have. The Pirates also have a pretty stacked farm system at the top. That’s generally the case when you’re debating between guys like Glasnow, Heredia, Bell, and Hanson for the 4-7 spots. I could see Kingham easily moving past Kyle McPherson and Barrett Barnes, since both have dealt with multiple injuries and will see their value drop for that reason. From there it comes down to weighing floors and ceilings. The advantage Kingham has is a higher floor than guys like Glasnow or Heredia. Those two might have a chance to be better, but they also have a bigger bust potential due to the control issues that come with their young mechanics. Of course if the top two draft picks end up being ranked high, Kingham could be back at #10. That would be a huge testament to the farm system, since Kingham’s stock has clearly gone up.

Where to Rank Stolmy Pimentel?

Stolmy Pimentel had a strong start to the year, putting up ace-like numbers. He has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 17 earned runs in 17.1 innings. The end result is that his overall numbers are a better reflection of his upside. He’s got a 3.35 ERA in 53.2 innings, with a 42:23 K/BB ratio. He struggles with consistency, so he’s probably got the upside of a number three starter, or a strong number four. He also has a higher floor than most pitchers, since he’s got an upper 90s fastball and a slider that looks like it could be a plus pitch. Considering the previously mentioned depth, he might have trouble cracking the top 10, but I definitely see him in my top 15.

Is Stetson Allie a Top 20 Prospect?

Back to that question. It seems like it would be automatic for Allie to be a top 20 prospect when you look at the numbers. Two things are at play here for me. The first is that Allie is doing this in West Virginia. Two years ago Matt Curry was demolishing the level, and hasn’t been able to replicate that ever since in Altoona. You want to look at Allie and dream about the future first baseman who can hit 40 homers and a .300 average. But it’s a long way from low-A ball to the majors. So far Allie has been inconsistent, with a few stretches where he hasn’t hit anything. Those are quickly followed by stretches where he hits everything, including some pitches really far.

The second thing is that I’m usually low on first basemen until they reach the upper levels. The value of first basemen is almost exclusively on the bat. I mentioned how it’s a long jump from low-A to the majors. It’s a long jump from low-A to Double-A. If Allie was putting up these numbers in Double-A, he’d be an easy top ten prospect. But until that happens, I’ll be skeptical. Usually we have first basemen ranked lower than everyone else. It might be the same with Allie. I will say that one advantage he has is that he’s got more raw power than guys like Matt Curry and Alex Dickerson.

Other Thoughts

**With three arm injuries in a year, Kyle McPherson will probably drop. I really like his upside, but you never know how players will return from injuries, and whether that upside will be the same.

**Barrett Barnes has had a few minor injuries since going pro. I’m not going to say he’s injury prone yet, but with so much competition it would be hard for him to maintain his ranking.

**I’ve been high on Joely Rodriguez as a sleeper for the past few years. At this point I could see him in my top 30. That’s not a huge jump, since he was in the overall top 40 this year. It’s hard to not like a young lefty who throws 91-94, has an above average slider and changeup, movement on all of his pitches, and who has seemingly fixed his control problems.

**Eric Wood is another pre-season sleeper who could see a jump. We had Wood ranked 39th at the start of the year, and he could crack the top 30.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Top Performers: Do the Pirates Have Anything With Felix Pie?

**Top Performers: Nick Kingham Continues His Impressive Season With Bradenton.

**After a Rough Start, Alen Hanson Has Done a Complete 180.

**Minor Moves: Alex Dickerson Placed on the Altoona DL With a Concussion.

**John Sickels Releases His Latest Mock Draft.

**Prospect Watch: Pimentel Gets Hit Again, Bell and Allie Lead West Virginia Offense.

**Minor League Schedule: Morton Makes Rehab Start In Altoona.

Jeff Locke was one of the four pitchers known as The Altoona Four.

In 2010 the Altoona Curve had a group of pitchers that went on to be called “The Altoona Four” out of convenience. I say convenience because the group led Altoona to an Eastern League title in 2010, but they also led the Lynchburg Hillcats to a Carolina League title in 2009. So they could have easily been “The Lynchburg Four”, which isn’t really as catchy. Then, in 2011, only two of them moved up to Indianapolis at the start of the season. Eventually the other two pitchers made that jump. After that it would have made sense to call them “The Indianapolis Four”.

But you say “The Altoona Four” and most people know you’re talking about Jeff Locke, Bryan Morris, Rudy Owens, and Justin Wilson. For most of the 2010 season the Pirates didn’t have an ace of the future. They had the pitchers in Altoona, and the hope that one of the prep pitchers from the 2009 draft would break out and become a top prospect. It wasn’t until a one week span in the middle of August that the team signed Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, and Luis Heredia. The following year they would draft and sign Gerrit Cole.

It’s hard to think back before the Pirates had pitching depth. Now you hear people say “I don’t want the Pirates taking a pitcher” if people talk about top pitching prospect Sean Manaea possibly falling to the Pirates. Early 2010 Pirates fans would kick us all in the balls if they knew. That was a time when The Altoona Four represented hope for the short-term and the long-term of the pitching staff. Now that hope lies with Cole, Taillon, Heredia, and other potential breakout guys like Nick Kingham and Tyler Glasnow.

So what about The Altoona Four? Where did they end up? What kind of help are they going to provide the Pirates with in the short and long term? Let’s take a look at each pitcher.

Jeff Locke - After another outstanding start today, Locke has a 2.73 ERA in 52.2 innings on the season for the Pirates. That won’t last, as his xFIP is 4.45, due to a low .224 BABIP and a high 82.5% strand rate. Neither will be sustained as the season goes on. One advantage Locke could have is that his 11.4% HR/FB rate could come down, even below the 10% league average. As a left-hander in PNC Park, Locke should see a lower amount of fly balls going for home runs, much in the same way that Paul Maholm always had a low HR/FB rate with the Pirates (7.3-7.7 range in 2009-2011, 12.8 in 2012 and 9.5 in 2013 away from Pittsburgh). Then again, it took Maholm a few years to get to those levels, so that might not happen yet for Locke. I see him ending up as a strong number four starter, and possibly an average number three guy.

Bryan Morris - It looks like Morris is finally in the majors for good. He’s not posting dominant numbers yet, but he also only has 14.2 innings this year. I’ve felt that Morris could be a closer option, and it will be interesting to see what he can do with more experience. Right now he has a 3.68 ERA in those 14.2 innings, with a 5.5 K/9 and a 4.9 BB/9 ratio.

Rudy Owens - He hasn’t reached the majors yet, but Owens has already helped the Pirates. He was one of three players the Pirates traded to the Astros last year to get Wandy Rodriguez, who has been a huge anchor for the rotation. Owens is out for most of the year with a foot injury after pitching 17 innings in Triple-A for Houston this year.

Justin Wilson - He’s been outstanding in the bullpen this year, with a 1.40 ERA in 25.2 innings, along with an 8.8 K/9 and a 4.9 BB/9 ratio. There will be some regression, since he has a 2.95 FIP and a 3.97 xFIP. One of his strengths throughout the minors was that he rarely gave up any hits. That, combined with the high strikeout numbers, countered the walks. So far Wilson is doing the same in the majors with a .110 BAA. He’s also putting up great velocities out of the bullpen.

#Pirates LHP Justin Wilson topped out at 97.4 mph last night, averaged 95.5 mph with fastball. He’s enjoying a velocity spike this year

— Travis Sawchik (@Sawchik_Trib) May 18, 2013

When Wilson first moved to the bullpen in 2011 he hit 99 MPH on a few occasions. To see him back in the upper 90s again is a great thing. A lefty with an upper 90s fastball is rare. I wouldn’t be opposed to the Pirates using Wilson as a starter down the line, but this year he should provide them with a strong middle relief option. In the future he could be a dominant late inning reliever if they don’t go the starting route.

At the moment Locke has the most value for the short-term. I wouldn’t go as far as saying he will have the most value for the long-term. I’ve always liked Owens more than most, and if Wilson ever makes the jump to being a starter I think he could have more upside than anyone.

The overall results from this group have been good. In 2010 the Pirates had four outstanding starters in Altoona. That doesn’t always translate over to four starters in the majors. Right now it’s looking like the return from this group will be a mid-to-back of the rotation guy, and two dominant late inning relievers. Plus Owens represents one-third of the trade that brought in Wandy Rodriguez. Considering the high attrition rate for pitchers, those are some good results to have.

They’re not providing the Pirates with a group of pitchers who will lead the pitching staff. Morris and Wilson could eventually lead the bullpen, but there’s no top of the rotation guys. However, the Pirates have other pitchers in the system now to potentially fill those roles. Getting a starter, two relievers, and a trade chip that brings in another starter is definitely a good result, and so far has helped the Pirates get off to their strong start in 2013.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Pirates Notebook: Andrew McCutchen Scratched From Lineup.

**Pirates Win Series on Locke’s Sharp Start, Alvarez’s Homer.

**Huntington: Decision To Be Made on Karstens; McDonald and Morton Updates.

**Prospect Watch: Kingham and Taillon Have Good Starts While Cole Gets Hammered.

**Barmes Makes Adjustment, Improves at the Plate.

**Minor League Schedule: Rodriguez Looks To Continue Recent Hot Streak.

**Draft Prospect Watch: High School Notes, Former Picks And Second Round Possibilities.

Jose Tabata has been better against right-handers than Travis Snider so far. Photo Credit: David Hague

So far this season the Pittsburgh Pirates have been using Travis Snider most of the time against right-handers. However, when a lefty is on the mound, Snider is on the bench. On the season Snider has just eight plate appearances against lefties. Guys like Jose Tabata and Brandon Inge have been getting the starts in right field, with Tabata being the go-to guy, and Inge only starting during a time when Tabata was hurt.

Even though the Pirates are going with a platoon role, a case could be made for Tabata to be the everyday right-fielder. Snider has a .287/.356/.404 line in 94 at-bats against right-handers so far. Tabata has a .340/.426/.489 line in 47 at-bats against right-handers. Tabata went 1-for-3 against left-hander Erik Bedard tonight, while Snider went 0-for-2 against right-hander Jose Cisnero.

In each case you’ve got a small sample size. Tabata’s success is only in 47 at-bats, while Snider is posting decent numbers in twice the playing time against right-handers. There’s also a disclaimer with Tabata’s numbers. He’s been a streaky hitter throughout his career, going on extreme hot streaks, only to bring his numbers down with an extended cold streak. His success so far could be just another hot streak that won’t be sustained.

The problem here is that you need to give Tabata a chance. His numbers might be the result of a small sample size. They might be just another hot streak that won’t last. But if you don’t give him a shot to prove that wrong, you’re not going to ever get to a point where you can be comfortable with his numbers.

Tabata and Snider are both in the same situation. They were former top prospects who have struggled in their time in the majors. Tabata is six months younger than Snider, so they’re both around the same age. They both have struggled to hit for power in the majors, and at this point their value seems to be a number two hitter with good on-base skills (although Tabata is hitting for power against right-handers in a SSS this year). So there would be no reason to prioritize one over the other, unless the priority went to the hot bat.

I’m not sure that Tabata should be handed the starting job in the way that Starling Marte is the starting left-fielder. But I do think Tabata should start seeing increased time against right-handers, taking about two-thirds of the overall playing time in right-field while his bat is hot. If the bat cools down, or if Snider’s heats up, adjust that playing time accordingly.

The Pirates have been getting great offense from Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Russell Martin, and the first base platoon. They’re already getting OBP from the right-fielders, which is great for the number two spot, and makes the top of the lineup look strong. If Tabata can continue these numbers, he could only increase that production from the number two spot, which would only be a bonus for the lineup.

Snider has already been benched against lefties this year. He’s doing a good job of getting on base against right-handers, which is good for his role as a number two hitter. However, Tabata is doing a better job against right-handers, and adding some power to go with the increased OBP. Until that stops, the Pirates might want to consider giving Tabata more starts against right-handers.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

**Prospect Watch: Glasnow Continues to Strike Everyone Out; Karstens Rehabs.

**Pirates Lose 4-2: Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Burnett Still Good at Baseball.

**Pirates Notebook: Burnett Takes Mound As NL Strikeout Leader.

**Chase d’Arnaud Heading to Altoona For the Next Step of Rehab; Thumb Feeling Good.

**Reid Brignac Traded to the Yankees.

**Luis Heredia Close to Joining West Virginia.

**Draft Prospect Watch: Pitching Duel Dud In LSU, Four Hits For Moran

When the Astros moved to the AL West this year, it meant the Pirates lost an opponent that they went 12-5 against last year. The Pirates were the Milwaukee Brewers and the Astros were the Pittsburgh Pirates. The next chapter in that book came tonight when the Pirates won on a walk off error. Bases loaded, two outs, 3-2 pitch. Russell Martin pops it up, Houston pitcher Edgar Gonzalez immediately celebrates, and then two fielders collide in the outfield and Travis Snider scores. It’s almost exactly the type of thing that would have happened to the Pirates against the Brewers the last few years. The only problem is that this chapter isn’t really a chapter, but a short-story. After the Astros leave Pittsburgh this weekend, the two teams are done for the year. There won’t be 14 other games where the Pirates can look forward to easy series wins.

Watching that dropped pop up tonight, my first thought was “I miss the Astros.” What the Pirates have been doing so far this year has been fantastic. They’ve been beating a lot of really good teams. So far they’re 4-3 against the Brewers, which is just as impressive as any other set of games they’ve played this year. They had the toughest schedule in the month of April, and went 15-12. They’ve got an easier schedule in May, and so far they’re taking advantage with a 10-5 record. But seeing so many Astros games replaced on the schedule by better opponents — and just replacing the Astros gives you a better opponent automatically — kind of makes it feel like it can never be easy for the Pirates.

I also thought about how it must suck to be an Astros fan right now. Scratch that. I thought about how I know exactly how it sucks to be an Astros fan right now. Sports can mean different things to different people. Some people live and die by sports. Some people view it as a form of entertainment. Some people have a casual interest, usually when the team is doing well. No matter what your interest level, it’s never fun when your team is that bad.

My interest level tends to be around the “entertainment” area. I don’t get affected personally by individual losses, or late season collapses, and I don’t get overly elated over wins, or the process of contending. Part of that is because I’ve spent so many years trying to predict different aspects of the game that it doesn’t seem like a game to me anymore. But another part is because I view the game the same way I’d view a movie. It could be like The Avengers, where I watch it, want to immediately watch it again, and look forward to each additional Avengers movie comes out. That’s where the Pirates are at right now, or at least heading in that direction.

The Astros are in Transformers 2 territory. They’re so bad that it’s tarnishing anything that happened previously. You’re not really looking forward to the next installment. The plot lines in the current installment are extremely predictable. Those two annoying robots who were pretty much the equivalent of wanna-be white rappers weren’t what you came for. No one cares about a love story with contrived tension. The parents are more support characters and were given too big of a role. The biggest character had a small role. Why is Ronny Cedeno in this movie?

I don’t know enough about the Astros to know which players apply to which examples above. An Astros blogger might be able to make that connection better, although they might not have seen Transformers 2. For that, they’re probably better off.

What I do know is that you’ve got to feel for Astros fans right now. It’s going to be enjoyable for the next two games watching the Pirates play the worst team in baseball. But after that there’s no reason to root against them. It’s not like they’re located in Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Atlanta or New York. And while Pirates fans totally understand what the Astros fans are going through right now, I think it’s safe to say that the reminder the Astros are bringing this weekend makes the current success much sweeter. The Astros are a reminder of where the Pirates were several years ago, and the current team is a much more preferable situation. So I miss the Astros. But I don’t miss the reminder they bring of what it’s like to see a horrible franchise night after night.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 4: Are the Pirates For Real? Plus a Jameson Taillon Interview.

2013 Draft

**Baseball America Releases Their Top 250 Draft Prospects.

**Draft Prospect Watch: Gray And Appel Struggling Recently.

Prospects

**Prospect Trends: AAA Depth and WV Prospects Going in Different Directions.

**Pirates Trade Brian Jeroloman to the Nationals.

**Prospect Watch: Solid Pitching All Around, Big Games For Polanco And Herrera.

**Minor League Schedule: Karstens and Glasnow Headline Saturday’s Games

Pirates

**Pirates Notebook: Robbie Grossman Finally Comes To Pittsburgh.

**Jose Contreras Placed on Bereavement List, Jared Hughes Recalled.

**Pirates Could Have Interest in Reid Brignac.

**Pirates Come Back to Win 5-4 with Alvarez’s Bomb, Martin’s Walkoff.

**Two good starts from Francisco Liriano so far. What I liked about tonight’s start was that he wasn’t at his best early in the game, and still ended up with a dominating stat line. So far he’s pitching more like the 2010 version, and less like the 2011-12 version. If the Pirates get anything close to the 2010 version, and pair that with A.J. Burnett and Wandy Rodriguez, then they could contend this year.

**It’s not often that you can directly see how defense saves runs, but you saw it in the first inning. Russell Martin threw out a runner at second, and Andrew McCutchen robbed an easy double in center field with his great leaping catch. Without those plays, the Pirates are down at least 3-0, and it could have been worse. That would have resulted in a much different game.

Russell Martin could already be the best major league free agent signing Neal Huntington has made. Photo credit: David Hague

**How great has Russell Martin been? Not just with the bat, but the defense has been outstanding. Before the game he and Michael McKenry each saw 24 stolen base attempts. McKenry threw out one runner. Martin threw out nine. The league average for caught stealing has been 28%, and Martin was at 38%. That was before throwing out one of two tonight.

**Throughout his minor league career, Justin Wilson had a trend. He would strike out a lot of batters, issue a lot of walks, and wouldn’t give up any hits. The result was that he had great overall numbers, and doubts about future success in the majors. So far it’s been the same story in the majors. After tonight he has a 1.46 ERA in 24.2 innings. He’s got an 8.8 K/9, a 4.7 BB/9, and only nine hits allowed. He’s due for some regression, since he’s got a .161 BABIP and an 83.3% strand rate. However, he’s still going to be putting up good numbers even after the regression. You wonder if Andy Oliver can do the same, since he has similar numbers in Triple-A this year.

**A lot of Milwaukee series’ (seri?) have gone this way over the last few years. One team dominates, taking three of four games, and finishing off the series with a crushing victory. It’s just that the Pirates have always been on the other side of this. And it always feels like this:

But the Pirates winning 3 of 4? Winning four games against Milwaukee by mid-May? (Note: they haven’t won more than five in a season since 2007, when they won six games.) Winning 4 of 7 on the season so far? Taking four of the last five? Is this real life? Is this going to be forever? I hope so.

**Never really did trivia at a bar before tonight. I finally found a place for all of my useless pop culture references. Who knew that knowing Lisa Turtle’s real name from Saved by the Bell would ever come in handy (Lark Voorhies, for those of you scoring at home). Also, the girl I’m dating won two beer chugging contests against a girl from another group, and our table got two free pitchers of beer as a result. Can you say keeper? Finally, if you know nothing about the show Friends, you might as well not play trivia at all. Or just eat and talk during the entire round devoted to Friends questions.

**Back to baseball, what is it about the Pirates that prospects never step up until a major league veteran has been signed? In 2010 it was Neil Walker stepping up at second base after Aki Iwamura was added. The last two years it has been Jordy Mercer at shortstop after Clint Barmes was added. This year it’s Tony Sanchez after Russell Martin was added. Sanchez is currently hitting for a .307 average and a .936 OPS on the season. If Martin ever goes down, Sanchez has earned a chance to be the primary starter.

**It’s been bad since Michael Scott left, but The Office really turned it around this season. That’s especially true in the most recent episodes. I’m looking forward to watching the final episode tomorrow after I finish the podcast. Mostly because I can stop avoiding Facebook and Twitter for spoilers. There needs to be a spoiler tag added to social networks, just like they have on IMDB. I don’t even feel comfortable posting spoilers about LOST, and that show has been over for a few years. Basically what I’m saying is if you rush to Facebook and post a spoiler right after watching a show, you’re kind of an asshole.

**Finally, Happy Birthday to our own Tom Bragg!

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Tomorrow afternoon we’ll release episode four of the Pirates Prospects Podcast. Check out last week’s episode: P3 Episode 3: What To Do With Alvarez, Gomez, and Mercer; Casey Sadler Interview.

2013 Draft

**What Are the Odds the Pirates Draft a Future Major League Hitter?

**Keith Law Posts Mock Draft, New Name Associated With Pirates.

**Jonathan Mayo Posts Mock Draft, Peterson Mentioned Again.

**Draft Preview: Focusing In On Certain Players.

Prospects

**Prospect Notebook: When Should Taillon and Pimentel Be Promoted to Indianapolis?

**Minor Moves: Holmes Off DL, d’Arnaud Starts Rehab.

**Prospect Watch: Tony Sanchez Keeps Hitting, Gregory Polanco Homers.

**Minor League Schedule: Holmes Tries Again In West Virginia.

Pirates

**Injury Update: Morton, Karstens and McDonald.

**Snider Goes Swimming as Pirates Pound Brewers 7-1.

Wandy Rodriguez will likely land a draft pick for the Pirates in 2014. Photo Credit: David Hague

When the Wandy Rodriguez trade first went down, I wasn’t a big fan of the deal. Rodriguez had been struggling with the Astros in the two months leading up to the trade, and had seen his strikeouts dropping in each of the last few seasons. Simply put, he wasn’t the same pitcher he was a few years ago, and there were some Matt Morris concerns with his 2012 struggles.

So far with the Pirates, Rodriguez is showing that he can still pitch, and still be an effective pitcher. He started off rough, but whatever problems he was having quickly subsided and he’s been great ever since. After tonight’s outing against the Brewers, Rodriguez has a 3.25 ERA in 44.1 innings this year, along with a 6.5 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9.

When Rodriguez was traded, it changed his 2014 option from a club option to a player option. That means that he now decides his fate after the season. This creates one of three scenarios.

1. Rodriguez accepts the option, getting $13 M. The Pirates would only pay $7.5 M of that salary, with Houston paying $5.5 M.

I could only see this happening if something lower’s his value this year. If Rodriguez keeps pitching the way he has been pitching, he’d probably be in line for more guaranteed money on a multi-year deal. If he did accept this option, it would be great for the Pirates. They’d be getting him for $1 M less than they’re paying in 2013.

2. Rodriguez declines, and the Pirates tender a qualifying offer with Rodriguez accepting. Or the Pirates don’t tender an offer.

These are unlikely scenarios for the same reason: the qualifying offer that the Pirates would have to tender to Rodriguez would be about the same as the option he turned down. Granted, he would get $2.5 M by turning down the option, so there’s more money in 2014 if he then accepts the tender. However, the reason he’d be turning down the option is for more guaranteed money. He’d be leaving money on the table by turning around and accepting a tender. So it’s unlikely that he accepts any tendered offer. Because this is unlikely, I don’t think it’s likely that the Pirates refuse to tender an offer. If he’s already turned down that amount, it would be pretty safe to offer him the same amount and try and get a draft pick.

3. Rodriguez declines, the Pirates tender a qualifying offer, Rodriguez declines that, and the Pirates get a compensation pick.

This seems like the most likely scenario with the way Rodriguez has been pitching. If he keeps this up, I could see him declining his player option to go for one final multi-year deal on the open market. As mentioned above, he would probably then turn down the qualifying offer, since it would be about the same amount as the option. I can’t see the Pirates signing him on the open market, and they really don’t need to. Getting him back at one year and $7.5 M would be great, but there’s no need to go multiple years at market rate when the 2014 rotation could include Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon by mid-season. Thus, the Pirates seem likely to end up with a compensation pick in the 2014 draft.

All of this depends on Rodriguez continuing what he’s been doing so far this year. I’m still a big fan of Robbie Grossman, who the Pirates traded as the main piece in the Rodriguez trade. However, if you factor in the year and a half from Rodriguez, plus a potential first round compensation pick, that would be well worth giving up Grossman — especially with so many outfield options either in the majors already, or making their way to the majors in the next few years.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Thursday is recording day for the Pirates Prospects Podcast. Check out last week’s episode: P3 Episode 3: What To Do With Alvarez, Gomez, and Mercer; Casey Sadler Interview.

Prospects

**Prospect Watch: Big Days From Pie and Carroll, Pimentel Struggles Again.

**Prospect Notebook: Cole Making Progress, But Still Needs Those Strikeouts.

**Minor League Schedule: Morton Gets The Rehab Start In Altoona.

Pirates

**John McDonald to the DL, Jordy Mercer Recalled.

**Jonathan Sanchez Signs With the Dodgers.

**Pirates Pregame: Alvarez, Barmes Sit Against Gallardo.

**Red Sox Knew Joel Hanrahan Was an Injury Risk.

Tony Sanchez has a .918 OPS in Indianapolis.

The one thing we can take away from the Jordy Mercer situation is that the Pirates plan to have him as the primary shortstop in 2014, or at least the top candidate for the job. We hope that’s the situation. Otherwise it really makes no sense to get Mercer adjusted to the majors in the short-term as a utility player. But I think that the fact that Mercer was used as a starter when Neil Walker was down speaks well to how the organization views him. Prior to that, I figured that John McDonald would be seeing starts at shortstop if Clint Barmes went down, with Mercer on the bench. Now I’d be shocked if Mercer wasn’t playing every day in that scenario.

Some events over the last few days have me wondering if the Pirates should take the same approach with another position. Russell Martin has been a strong player to have in the lineup when healthy. The problem is that he’s missed a few games this year, leading to Michael McKenry starting a few games in the last week. On Monday, McKenry was 0-for-6 in caught stealing attempts, giving us a reminder of his horrible numbers from the 2012 season. You would think that with McKenry being the backup in the majors, he’d be first in line to start if Martin ever went on the disabled list.

The other thing that has been happening lately is Tony Sanchez has been hitting, and hitting for power. After going 3-for-4 with a double and a homer tonight, Sanchez is hitting for a .294/.400/.518 line in 85 at-bats. That’s a small sample size, but it’s very positive that Sanchez is not only hitting for average, but hitting for power. He has a .224 ISO so far this year, and had a .175 ISO in 206 at-bats with Indianapolis last year. The average returned last season, with a .277 average in 141 at-bats in Double-A, which was up from a .241 average in 2011. The problem was that Sanchez wasn’t hitting for power when he was hitting for average, and he wasn’t hitting for average when he was hitting for power.

This year he’s hitting for power and average so far, which is a great sign. He already has strong defense, with a great arm, plus pitch blocking skills, and he does great work handling a pitching staff. Sanchez would be an upgrade over Michael McKenry on defense. He may not have an immediate impact on offense, but he’s certainly earned a shot in the majors with his recent hitting.

Since Martin was signed for two years, the Pirates don’t need Sanchez as a starter until the 2015 season. However, they could use him as a starter if Martin ever goes down for an extended period, which seems like it could be possible when you consider that he’s dealt with two minor injuries already this year (shoulder and neck). Sanchez would probably be a better all around option over McKenry. That would give the Pirates at least two positions where their Triple-A starters are better than the backups on the bench. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as long as the Pirates start those Triple-A guys in the majors when the major league starters go down.

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 3: What To Do With Alvarez, Gomez, and Mercer; Casey Sadler Interview.

**Pirates Relief Pitching Prospects Drawing Interest?

**Pirates Pregame: Martin Back in the Lineup.

**Horseshoe Is On the Other Foot as Pirates Walk Off on Brewers.

**Prospect Watch: Tony Sanchez Hitting For Power; Alen Hanson Hits First Homer.

**Minor League Schedule: 5/15/13.

The Pirates couldn’t beat the Brewers with A.J. Burnett taking on the struggling Marco Estrada. Photo Credit: David Hague

Today there were 12 articles and updates that went up on the site. That should give you plenty to read. Or at least that’s the excuse I’m using to go with some thoughts for tonight’s First Pitch, rather than a normal article. Hey, I’m tired from driving back from Clearwater where I was watching Jeff Karstens pitch.

The Pirates lost to the Brewers tonight by a score of 5-1. I didn’t follow the game too closely, but I did follow enough to know the storylines:

**The Pirates had their ace, the Brewers had a guy putting up horrible numbers, and the ace struggled while the non-ace looked like an ace.

**Michael McKenry can’t throw out a base runner.

**The Pirates can’t beat Milwaukee, even at home.

The first point isn’t that notable. These things happen. You win games starting guys like Marco Estrada, and you lose games to guys like Marco Estrada. The Pirates are 3-0 when Jeanmar Gomez starts, and that includes when he starts against Matt Harvey. There’s going to be times where it’s the opposite and their ace loses to someone else’s number four or five starter.

The second point on McKenry is something we’ve known. It also makes us realize how important Russell Martin has been, and how much better his defense is. Pair McKenry with A.J. Burnett, and you’re going to get a 6-for-6 night on the bases.

The third point is the most important one here. I wrote a few weeks ago that the only way the Pirates can contend is if they find a way to beat Milwaukee. It’s almost impossible to contend while posting an extreme losing record against a team that you play as often as Milwaukee. Last year the Pirates were 4-11 against the Brewers. There’s talk that Miller Park is the House of Horrors, but the Pirates went 3-6 at Miller Park and 1-5 at home. So it’s not something where you can just chalk this up to playing poorly on the road. They have been playing the Brewers poorly no matter what.

I was thinking about this on the drive home. It’s almost like the Pirates are defeated before they even take the field against Milwaukee. The above situations happen, where a lesser pitcher beats you and your ace has a rough night. But it seems like those situations happen all the time when the Pirates play the Brewers.

It got me thinking about the Navy SEALs training. Beyond all of the cries over that training, one of the main focus points was visualization. The theory was that if you visualize a bad outcome, chances are that bad outcome is going to come true. If you visualize a good outcome, you’re more likely to put yourself in the right frame of mind to make that good outcome a reality.

Tom Bragg had a stunning stat in his game recap tonight. In 97 games against the Brewers since 2007, the Pirates have lost 72. That’s a horrid winning percentage. You’ve got to figure that it wears on the players. When fans see Milwaukee on the schedule, the thought isn’t “There’s Milwaukee, and they’ve got a bad record, so maybe the Pirates will have a better chance.” The thought usually is “There’s Milwaukee. I don’t care what their record is, there’s no chance the Pirates beat them.” With all of the losing, there have to be some players who go into a Milwaukee series with the same thinking. I don’t see how you could lose almost 75% of your games against one team and avoid that.

The Pirates are looking good this year, and as we pointed out last week, projections have them finishing with a winning season. Until they find a way to beat Milwaukee, they’re going to have an impossible time trying to contend in the National League. And guess who they play six more times this month? Those six games against Milwaukee will be some of the most important games of the season, just because the Pirates need to eventually find some way to beat the Brewers.

Now, on to all of those articles from today…

Links and Notes

**The 2013 Prospect Guide and the 2013 Annual are both available on the products page of the site. If you order them together, you’ll save $5.

**Check out the new episode of the Pirates Prospects Podcast: P3 Episode 3: What To Do With Alvarez, Gomez, and Mercer; Casey Sadler Interview.

Prospects

**Prospect Watch: Sanchez Has a Doubles Streak Going, Herrera Continues Hot May.

**Draft Prospect Watch: Weekend Recap, Where Do We Stand?

**Minor Moves: Jake Burnette Added to West Virginia, Clay Holmes to the DL.

**Top Performers: Felix Pie Starts Hitting, While Josh Bell Continues.

**Top Performers: Sadler Leads a Great Week For Pirates Pitching Prospects.

**Early Preview of the 2013 International Signing Class, Pirates Not In On Top Names.

**Andy Oliver Named the International League Pitcher of the Week.

**Minor League Schedule: 5/14/13.

Pirates

**The Brewers Just Stole Another Base…

**Jeff Karstens Goes Three Innings in a Rehab Start For Bradenton.

**Pirates Reinstate Walker, Option Jordy Mercer.

**Anthony Rizzo’s Extension is a Good Guide For Starling Marte.