Jameson Taillon needs a few more starts in Altoona before being promoted to Indianapolis.

Staying patient with Pimentel and Taillon

I had an opportunity to see the Curve’s top two starters this past week, and it was a tale of two different starts, as Pimentel struggled for the first time this season while Taillon had one of his better outings.  My take away from both outings, however, is that both pitchers are where they should be pitching in AA right now.

Prior to Pimentel’s 4.1 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 5 K outing, I was asked by several people if it was time to promote the 23-year old righty after great success to start the season.  Thursday night’s outing demonstrated that Pimentel still has things to work on in AA, specifically his command.

I noted previously that Pimentel was due for some regression, as his strand rate and batting-average-on-balls-in-play both suggested how benefited from some good luck.  In his remarkable run of only allowing 3 earned runs in 36.1 innings, Pimentel was able to scatter his walks and hits as well as benefit from batted balls ended up in outs at a high rate.  Of course, this is not to say that Pimentel didn’t have a role in his success, as he clearly had to make good pitches to register such a high-level of success.

Nonetheless, Pimentel has struggled with control at points this season, marked by his 4.6 walks per nine innings, and command was the problem this week.  It was no coincidence that with the command struggles also came some added velocity, touching 98 mph and sitting 95-97 mph with his four-seam fastball.

“We like him at 95-97.  He just has to understand to pitch with whatever he has.  If he’s got extra stuff, he’s got to learn how to pitch with that, and that’s just experience,” said pitching coach Stan Kyles.

Experience.  For all his success, Pimentel still has command issues to work on, and I think it’s helpful that he’s going through the Eastern League and seeing teams several times before making the jump to AAA.  Thursday was his second start against Richmond, so they had some idea of what to expect.  Pimentel will be more impactful down the road by learning how to pitch to these line-ups several times since hitters will adjust to him.

It is true that Pimentel only has one option remaining, meaning he needs to make the big-league roster out of camp next season, which may lead some to urge for a speedy promotion.  He has improved drastically this season compared to 2011 and 2012, and a few more starts in AA is good for his development.  A June or even July promotion still puts him in a good position to compete for a roster spot next season.

Number two Pirates Prospect Jameson Taillon had a no decision on Sunday after pitching 6 innings and giving up 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, and 8 Ks.  I’ve also been asked when I think Taillon should and will be promoted.

The standout features of Taillon’s last start were his use of his secondary pitches (two-seam fastball and change-up) at a much higher rate and some detectable trouble commanding these pitches, which he has not used as much as his four-seam fastball and big curveball.  Taillon needed 100 pitches to get through six innings, throwing only 59 strikes in the outing.

As he told me himself, the key to Taillon reaching his potential as a number one starter in the big leagues is his ability to throw the change-up consistently and for strikes.  In AA through his first few starts, Taillon was able to beat batters out by mostly using his plus four-seamer and curveball, not needing the change-up to be effective.  Now that he’s seeing lineups for a second time, using his full repertoire is necessary for both his AA success and long-term development.

“[He’s] gaining experience.  Every time he goes out he’s learning some different things about himself and about the game.  So, just continued development of himself, of his mentality, his execution of his pitches. He’s right on track of where he needs to be,” said Kyles.

Experience.  Like Pimentel, Taillon is still learning how to pitch to batters who have seen him previously at this level, as well as developing all four of his pitches so he can be a better overall pitcher.  Although the stat lines may suggest that he’s ready for a new challenge, a few more starts in AA against teams who are making adjustments to his stuff will be good for Taillon’s long-term potential.

In summary, both standout pitchers are still learning how to pitch vs. ‘just throwing.’  This process involves making adjustments to lineups that have seen them before and working more with secondary pitches to have success.  They both have the pure stuff to move up to AAA right now, but they can also benefit from a bit more experience in AA before being promoted.

A few bright spots on offense

This week Altoona was better at the plate than previous weeks.  Getting a 4-for-10 from Pirates second baseman Neil Walker certainly helped, but some Curve regulars also had a good week.

Andrew Lambo continues to be the Curve’s offensive leader.  After hitting four home runs in five games the week prior, Lambo did not homer this week.  Nonetheless, he’s hitting .361/.400/.721 in his last ten games.  He also had several hits against lefties this week, which is a positive sign for his development (although he’s still hitting only .232 against southpaws).  In addition, Lambo is filling in at first base for Matt Curry, giving him more experience at a new position.

Mel Rojas, Jr. is only hitting .220 on the season, but he had some better at bats this week, making adjustments to keep his hands back.  He’s also starting to show a little more patience at the plate, as 5 of his 11 walks have come in the past ten games.  Rojas, Jr. looked overmatched earlier season, but I think he’s starting to figure out AA pitching even if his season line is still suspect.

Back-up catcher Charlie Cutler is also swinging the bat well.  He delivered the game winner on Sunday on a deep drive to centerfield that was ruled an error (the ball was catchable, but driven hard to the deepest part of the park), and he doubled home a run on Saturday.  With Matt Curry’s injury, there are available at bats, and Cutler has emerged as someone who is earning more plate appearances.  Cutler is not a particularly strong defensive catcher, and at age 26 he profiles as organizational depth.

It’s an incredibly small sample size, but catcher Carlos Paulino has four hits in his past three games.  Paulino is a defensive standout with a great arm and above average ability behind the plate.  He has a long swing and has struggled mightily with the bat in 2013, but even modest success offensively might provide opportunities based on his defensive prowess.

Upcoming

This Friday, I will be talking about The Curve with Tim Williams on the Pirates Prospects Podcast (P3).  In addition, I interviewed Jameson Taillon on Sunday, which will be the podcast’s featured interview this week.

I will be ‘going dark’ until June 1^st, meaning I’ll be off twitter and have no internet access while I enjoy an outdoor adventure, so no Curve coverage from me until then.  I look forward to returning to action in June and continuing to follow the Curve for the rest of the season!

You can follow me on twitter @John_Eshleman.

Gerrit Cole has cut down on the walks recently, but needs to add some strikeouts.

At the start of the year, the expectation from most Pirates fans was for Gerrit Cole to go to Triple-A as a formality, just long enough to get an extra year of control and avoid Super Two status. As it turned out, Cole had some work to do at the level before he could be considered for the majors.

In his first four starts, the right-hander dealt with command issues, leading to long innings. Cole wasn’t giving up a lot of runs, but also wasn’t putting batters away early in the count. The Pirates have a policy that any pitcher who throws over 30 pitches in a single inning gets removed after that inning. Cole reached that single inning limit in the fourth inning or earlier in three of his four starts. In one of them he reached it in the first, but was sent back out in the second, only to top 30 pitches in an inning again.

On April 27th, Cole made his fifth start of the year, and got past the single inning pitch limits. He threw seven innings, allowing one run on three hits. The problem was that he walked four in that game. That gave him 15 walks in 23.1 innings, with only 19 strikeouts.

In the three starts since, Cole has cut down on the walks. Over his last three starts he has given up six earned runs in 19 innings, with a 12:5 K/BB ratio. He’s made it 6+ innings in each of his last four starts, so the single inning problems look to be behind him. He’s walked two or fewer in each of his last three starts, so hopefully the control issues are subsiding. The final problem is a low strikeout rate.

Cole has a plus slider, which he can throw up to 92 MPH, and which should be a great strikeout pitch. Last year he struck out 136 batters in 132 innings, with a strikeout per inning average at each level. Pairing that with an upper 90s fastball and a plus changeup should give Cole plenty of strikeouts

All of his issues this year go back to command of his pitches. Early in the season the lack of command was leading to deep counts. It was also leading to a lot of walks. The command has improved, which eliminated those two issues. However, it hasn’t improved to the point where he’s dominating hitters and racking up the strikeouts. Early in the season his command wasn’t to the point where he could put away hitters, so it’s good that he’s improved there.

I’m not concerned with Cole for the long-term. He’s got great stuff, and I think two things are in play here. First, people tend to dismiss the Triple-A level with top prospects. Recently it has been seen as a formality where you spend half a season to get an extra year of control, with nothing to learn at the level. Triple-A is still an important development level. Second, with a guy like Cole, the idea is that he should never have any problems. That comes from people confusing “future potential” with where a player is at right now. Cole has the potential to be an ace. He’s not there right now, but that doesn’t mean his future potential has changed. It just means he’s got a legitimate reason to be in the minors.

Felix Pie’s Bat Heats Up

A little over a week ago I was talking about how Felix Pie should be replaced in Indianapolis by Andrew Lambo, who has been tearing up Double-A pitching. It’s probably not related, but since that point Pie has been crushing the ball. He hit his first homer of the season the following night, and has been on a tear ever since. Pie is hitting for a .417/.512/.806 line with three homers in 36 at-bats since that point.

Pie’s situation is like a lot of other outfielders in the Pirates’ system. He’s crushing right-handers, but can’t hit lefties. On the season he’s hitting for a .302/.375/.488 line in 86 at-bats against right-handers. He’s 2-for-24 against lefties, with a .269 OPS. On that same note, Lambo is doing the same thing in Altoona, , with a 1.003 OPS in 95 at-bats against right-handers, and a .586 OPS in 42 at-bats against lefties.

The Pirates have right-handers covered in the majors. Jose Tabata has been crushing them, and Travis Snider has held his own, both in small sample sizes. While the results from Pie are strong, they don’t represent something that could help fill the problem in Pittsburgh of finding an outfielder who can hit lefties.

Black and Welker Deserve the Attention

On Tuesday we learned that Vic Black and Duke Welker have been drawing attention from opposing teams, with more than ten teams looking at them last weekend. The attention is definitely warranted.

Welker is old for a prospect, having turned 27 in February. However, he’s got great stuff, with a 96-98 MPH fastball and a hard slider that’s a plus pitch. So far this season Welker has 17 innings without an earned run, giving up just four hits, and posting a 20:9 K/BB ratio. He’s always struggled with walks, but can be effective if he limits the walks to the level they’re at right now, and strikes out a batter an inning.

Black is another hard thrower, with a 96-98 MPH fastball and a mid-80s slider that is also a plus pitch. He has a 2.86 ERA in 22 innings on the season. However, only two of his seven runs have come in his first inning of work. Black has also dealt with control problems, and those have continues this year. He’s walked 11 in 22 innings so far. However, he has only given up 13 hits, and has an amazing 31 strikeouts in 22 innings.

Both guys could be options for the back of the bullpen in Pittsburgh in future years. They could also provide strong middle inning options if the Pirates opt to go with other late inning options. I’m not sure what it means that other teams are looking at those two, but you could imagine that other teams would be thinking the same thing about how both relievers could help their bullpens for the next six years.

Orlando Castro has allowed just two walks in 40 innings pitched for West Virginia.

That trend started to turn recently with Power pitchers starting to pick up the slack — especially Orlando Castro and Tyler Glasnow.

Castro leads the team with 40 innings pitched with 37 strikeouts, two walks (not a typo) and seven earned runs allowed (with two of those earned runs and one of the walks coming in his latest outing, a 2-1 loss at Lexington on Thursday).

As good as Castro has been, Glasnow might have been just a little better recently. In his last two starts (both wins), Glasnow has allowed just three hits and one run while striking out 17 and walking six. The last time Glasnow was on the mound he struck out 10 and let up just one hit against the Greenville Drive (the Power pitching staff combined for 16 strikeouts in that game).

**

Clay Holmes is one of the few pitchers in West Virginia that has not started to heat up as April turned into May. Holmes didn’t pitch especially poor in his last outing (Wednesday against Greenville) but he was especially good either.

His fastball touched 95 miles per hour, but he was struggling with command all day and was fortunate the Greenville offense did not take advantage of his mistakes.

Holmes has just one win in his last seven start, has a 6.10 Earned Run Average and has allowed more walks (25) and earned runs (21) than he has strikeouts (17).

**

Josh Bell and Stetson Allie continue to rank near the top of most offensive categories in the South Atlantic League.

Bell currently leads the league in RBIs (32) is second in doubles (12) and third in runs scored (26). Allie is tied for second in home runs (8), is third in OPS (1.030), fourth in hits (41) and fifth in RBIs (26). Allie, along with Walker Gourley, are also near the top for batting average. Gourley is hitting .318 (8th in the SAL) while Allie is fifth in the league with a .339 average in 121 at-bats.

Andrew Lambo has seven homers on the year with Altoona.

Altoona offensive woes continue, but Lambo a bright spot

Statistically, the Curve have the worst offense in the Eastern League.  They are cellar dwellers in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.  This week, the team registered five hits or less in five of their seven games, scoring on average 2.43 runs per game.  As a result, in spite of several good pitching performances, the team is losing much more than they are winning.  Nine of the team’s 15 position players are hitting under .235.

One of the few bright spots this week was Andrew Lambo’s continued development as a middle-of-the-lineup bat.  Lambo hit three home runs this week, and Tim Williams and I agree that Lambo belongs in Indianapolis at this point.  He has started playing first base in some games, which might open up more opportunities for him to advance.

Coming into 2013, a major question for Lambo was whether he could hit for enough power to play a corner outfield position.  He’s answered that question in the affirmative with seven homers in the first month of the season, and he is in the Eastern League top ten with a .521 slugging percentage.  Previously it looked like Lambo crowded the plate, making him susceptible to good fastballs on the inner half.  I did notice recently that he appears to have backed off a bit, and he was able to still pull an outer-half home run against Matt Karns on Tuesday.

One concern with Lambo is his struggle to hit left-handed pitching, with only a .182 batting average against southpaws this season (albeit in a small sample size).  He did hit a homer off Erie Seawolves lefty Matt Crouse this week, and his continued progress against southpaws is something to watch.

Outfielder Alex Dickerson is starting to come around at the plate, in spite of his jarring .193/.241/.358 slash line.  He homered once this week, and I think a lot of his early-season struggles are a result of the difficult jump up to AA where pitchers have not only better stuff but also improved command of their off-speed pitches.  When I’ve watched him live and on video, Dickerson has struggled with pitch recognition, evident in his 32:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he’s looked better at the plate in the last two weeks.  I expect him to adjust and improve his numbers over the summer.  Tim Williams and I discussed Dickerson briefly on last week’s podcast.

A tale of two starts for Sadler

2010 25^th round draft pick Casey Sadler was “Jekyll and Hyde” this week, turning in his best and worst starts of the season.  He gave up five earned runs in seven innings vs. Akron on May 1st, but turned it around on Monday going 8 strong innings, surrendering only two hits and one unearned run (zero earned).  Thanks to Milb.tv, I had a change to check out parts of both starts to see the difference between “the good” Casey Sadler and “the bad” version.

The key to Sadler’s game is locating his pitches, particularly his low 90s sinking fastball, down in the zone to induce groundball outs.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, evident in his low strikeout totals (4.70 K/9), but when he is on, hitters struggle to square him up slapping grounder after grounder, often weakly.

That was the case in his strong outing on Monday.   His sinker had the most life I’ve seen it have in the three times I’ve watched Sadler this season, and the Harrisburg Senators’ line-up didn’t make a lot of solid contact.  Sadler got away with a sinker over the heart of the plate to top prospect Anthony Rendon in the first, and pretty much cruised after that.  His slider was good, with hitters chasing it out of the zone on numerous occasions.

In his start last Wednesday, Sadler didn’t have the same command he showed this week.  Instead, he was leaving the ball up, and the Akron hitters were able to square it up and knock Sadler around.  He fell behind more hitters too, another sign that his command and control were not ‘on.’

Since he’s not a strikeout pitcher, Sadler needs to have plus command to reach his ceiling as a back-end starter.  Hitters will always make more contact against him than harder throwers with higher upside, so commanding his pitches down in the zone is crucial.  When his slider is on as it was Monday, Sadler looks every bit of a legit prospect.

Taillon leaves game after taking a liner in the leg

Top prospect Jameson Taillon was pitching pretty well this Tuesday before leaving in the fourth inning after a hard grounder hit him in the left leg.  The injury does not look serious. He was removed as a precaution and had a left shin contusion.

Taillon’s best pitch is his curveball, and he threw several good ones in the shortened outing, including a strikeout looking of shortstop Jose Lozada in the first inning.  He did hang a few of them over the heart of the plate, including a double to Anthony Rendon.  To Taillon’s credit, both runs he gave up in the first were unearned after an error by first baseman Andrew Lambo, and two of the hits he gave up were very makeable plays for the defense.

I also thought that Taillon’s two-seam fastball looked good with some of the best armside run I’ve seen from him so far this season.  The pitch can be very effective given its movement and slightly slower speed relative to the mid-90s four-seam fastball.

In the fourth inning, Taillon walked catcher Sandy Leon and then gave up a hard grounder to second baseman Rich Hague.  The ball one-hopped and looked to hit the tall righty just below the knee, allowing Hague to reach first.  Taillon looked to be walking fine and left the field on his own power.  Given Taillon’s extreme value to the organization, I was not surprised to see him leave the game, but I do not anticipate that the injury is serious.

Nate Baker came on in relief and struggled, with both inherited runners scoring and being tabbed to Taillon’s line.

This week

I’ll be talking with Tim Williams again this Friday on the Pirates Prospects podcast (P3), and heading to Altoona to catch Neil Walker rehab and Stolmy Pimentel pitch on Thursday.  I’ll also be at Taillon’s anticipated Sunday start.

Follow me on twitter @John_Eshleman.

But what about the other two players in the deal? Melancon has been a huge success so far in the bullpen, and Pimentel has been one of the best stories in the minor league system this year. It’s easy to forget the other guys in that deal with that sort of production. The Pirates did get Jerry Sands and Ivan De Jesus in return, with Sands being viewed as one of the top pieces, and De Jesus being more of a throw in. Both have been playing for Indianapolis this year, and the results have been mixed.

Jerry Sands has been struggling in Triple-A so far.

Jerry Sands

Sands has moved around a lot in the last year. He was with the Dodgers last year, then was traded to Boston in the deal that sent Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto to the Dodgers. He didn’t even get a chance to play with Boston, since the deal happened so late in the season, and since Boston flipped him over the off-season to the Pirates.

Sands had very little chance of making the majors this year. The Pirates had a crowded outfield, and Travis Snider (out of options) and Jose Tabata (out of options, contract) had the inside track for the open roster spots. He was pretty much a backup option incase someone in the majors didn’t work out. So far, it’s a good thing that Snider is doing his part against right-handed pitching, because Sands is the one that isn’t working out.

After he was demoted to minor league Spring Training, I didn’t see a lot of promise in Sands. He has always been a guy who could hit for power. Some of those power numbers came in the very hitter friendly PCL, but he had power before reaching that level. I didn’t see that power this year before the start of the regular season, and he hasn’t shown any of that during the season.

Sands is hitting for a .144/.260/.167 line in 90 at-bats this year. There’s no silver lining to that. He’s been bad against left-handers, right-handers, at home, on the road, and he hasn’t shown signs of turning it around in recent games.

Sands hit for a .296/.375/.524 line in 452 at-bats last year in the PCL. There is the PCL factor to consider, but that doesn’t explain the total lack of hitting this year. I don’t want to speculate on why Sands isn’t hitting this year. I will say that it’s a good thing Melancon and Pimentel are doing so well, because this part of the trade doesn’t seem to be working out.

Ivan De Jesus

He doesn’t have a lot of upside, but De Jesus has quietly been putting up some strong numbers. On the season he has a .351/.403/.491 line in 57 at-bats. De Jesus lost playing time when Josh Harrison went down to Triple-A, as the Pirates were starting Harrison and Jordy Mercer in the middle infield spots. De Jesus has been getting more playing time recently with Mercer in the majors, and he’s taking advantage of that time. In his last ten games he has a .433/.486/.633 line in 30 at-bats.

De Jesus was also traded in that Boston/Los Angeles deal. In the off-season he was waived, then outrighted to Triple-A, which showed that every team in the majors passed on him when they could have had him for free. He used to be a strong defensive middle infielder, but his defense hasn’t been the same since a broken leg in 2009. He is showing some hitting skills in his limited time in the International League, both last year with Boston and this year with the Pirates.

De Jesus looks like he could be a good backup middle infielder in the majors, although he seems to be low on the depth charts with the Pirates. The strong hitting could help him out, but the Pirates have also been seeing strong hitting in Triple-A from Mercer and Harrison, who both seem to be ahead of De Jesus.

The Other Side – Brock Holt

I heard from one scout during Spring Training that Brock Holt was better than any of the middle infield options the Pirates had. I’ve always liked Holt as a hitter, but never really thought he could make it as a starting shortstop in the majors. So I was surprised to see that he is currently hitting for a .185/.269/.185 line in 81 at-bats in Pawtucket. Just like Sands, there’s no silver linings to be found in the stat line. That’s surprising from a guy who hit for a .432/.476/.537 line in 95 at-bats last year in Triple-A, then went on to hit for a .292/.329/.354 line in 65 major league at-bats.

In the case of Holt and Sands, I think they’re both underperforming their potential right now. However, these current numbers raise the question that they might not be as good as their numbers indicated coming into the season.

Andy Vasquez has been a surprising bright spot in the Altoona offense.

The Curve lost their best hitter when Adalberto Santos went down with a hip injury April 15, and the offense has struggled for noticeable spells in the early season.  Santos returned Tuesday night, so there is some optimism he’ll be able to pick up where he left off prior to his injury.

Andy Vasquez has been the team’s best hitter over the past ten games putting up a .417/.432/.556 line, followed by Matt Curry’s .316/.381/.500.  Vasquez is a bit old at 25 and has never been all that highly regarded as a prospect, signing out of the Dominican Republic at age 20.  His major problem has been plate discipline, so even at points when he’s hit well, his low walk rate and high strikeout rate have made it difficult to project him as anything other than an organizational player.

In a small sample size in 2013, Vasquez has a 6.8% walk-rate about double what it was 2010-2012, and he’s already striking out less so far.  There’s not a lot of power, but he has played almost every position on the field in his career, and if he keeps hitting consistently, he could be considered a super-sleeper utility player prospect.  With Santos back in the fold at third base, expect Vasquez to play a mix of positions moving forward.

Matt Curry will reach 900 plate appearances in AA this week, and he did enough to deserve a promotion to AAA coming into 2013 (along with Santos and Andrew Lambo for that matter).  He’s up to .270 on the season, which is about where I’d expect him to be, and he has three homers in the early going.  As a first baseman, he’ll need the pop to continue moving up, and he’ll need to show he can hit lefties (3-for-25 in 2013).  His plate patience is not as good this year as previous seasons, possibly a sign he’s taking bigger cuts and starting his swing earlier to increase his power.  Or maybe that’s just the small sample size. My opinion on Curry will probably remain the same until he gets called up to AAA for a new test.

Andrew Lambo didn’t have a great week, only hitting .237/.286/.342, but he’s been one of the few bright spots in the line-up through the first month of the season.  Similar to Curry, I worry about platoon splits (3-for-25 against lefties), but Lambo has looked good at the plate when I’ve seen him, and he has always had a good swing.  Like Curry, he’s another player who has logged lots of at bats in AA (almost 1,400), and now is the time to see what he can do in AAA.

Injuries have slowed Lambo’s development, but this year he looks 100 percent.

“It’s great to feel healthy.  When something’s wrong you have to overcompensate and bad things start happening,” said Lambo.

Bottom of the line-up continues to struggle

The jump to AA is the hardest one to make for hitters, as AA pitchers are much more able to command a repertoire of pitches consistently.  Especially in the early going, it’s not uncommon to see players start slowly, and, as Cory Giger reminded me recently, Andrew McCutchen was only hitting .158 in Altoona in mid-May 2007.

Disclaimers aside, several Curve hitters have really struggled to open the season (through Monday):

Alex Dickerson: .192/.250/.359

Carlos Paulino: .193/.292/.246

Gift Ngoepe: .145/.238/.232

The sliver of good news here is that Dickerson hit his second homer (first to clear the wall) on Monday, and his swing looked better on Tuesday against Akron than when I saw it previously.  He started slow last season, and hopefully he can make adjustments to put in more productive at bats moving forward.

It’s also worth noting that while Paulino and Ngoepe have struggled at the plate, they are outstanding defenders, probably the best at their positions in the system.  Unfortunately, to have an impact, they will need to make serious advances at the plate.  Ngoepe especially looks befuddled at the plate, striking out in over 40% of his plate appearances after Tuesday’s game.

“They’re going to get better.  They can’t get much worse than that,” said manager Carlos Garcia.

You can follow me on twitter @John_Eshleman.

Indianapolis has seen their pitching depth depleted early in the year, in large part to the trickle down from the pitching problems in the majors. They have already sent Phil Irwin, Vin Mazzaro, and Bryan Morris up to the majors at times this year. Mazzaro is still in the majors. Irwin returned to Triple-A, but hasn’t pitched in a few weeks due to arm fatigue. Morris is the only pitcher who has thrown since his time in the majors. Adding to the pitching problems, the Indians saw Kyle McPherson go down early with an arm injury.

What the Indians have shown this year has been strong depth. Most of that depth has come from minor league free agents who were signed over the off-season. Those are guys who are probably best in Triple-A, but could emerge as sleeper relievers in the majors, with the hope that one breaks out and becomes a surprisingly strong middle reliever. There are also some legit prospects still at the level, both in the rotation and the back of the bullpen. Below is a breakdown of the pitchers in each category, and how they have been performing so far this year.

The Prospects

Last year the Indianapolis Indians opened with a rotation full of “prospects”. Not all of those guys were legit prospects. Brad Lincoln, for example, didn’t have prospect eligibility. The rotation of Lincoln, Kyle McPherson, Rudy Owens, Jeff Locke, and Justin Wilson looks like it is helping the Pirates in the long run. Lincoln was traded for Travis Snider, who has been excellent this year. Owens was one-third of the return for Wandy Rodriguez — another key player this season. Jeff Locke could be starting to figure things out in the major league rotation. Justin Wilson has been excellent in the Pirates’ bullpen.

This year the Pirates had some prospects in the rotation, but not to the degree as last year. The obvious prospect is Gerrit Cole, who could be up by mid-season, but has gotten off to a slow start. Cole has dealt with control issues, resulting from poor command. He has failed to make it past the fourth inning in three of his five starts this year, due to high single inning pitch counts. In the other two starts he has dealt with poor control problems, which have led to 15 walks in 23.1 innings this year. As I wrote last night, the Pirates can take their time with Cole, as some of the major league depth is starting to come back. There’s still a chance he could be ready by mid-season, but there’s certainly no need to rush him.

Kyle McPherson and Phil Irwin were two other prospects, and both are injured. The injury to McPherson seems more serious, although there haven’t been updates on either player.

Finally, Andy Oliver was more of a reclamation project, added in an off-season trade from the Detroit Tigers. Oliver had dealt with poor control issues in the past, and while those control issues still exist (19 BB in 32.1 innings), he has found a way to be dominant with the poor control (3.34 ERA, 39 K).

The big difference between last year and the current situation is that last year the Pirates had guys who could come up early in the season. They just didn’t need many of those guys, as the first half rotation didn’t have many problems. This year the only guys who could have provided immediate help were Irwin and McPherson, and both are now injured. The Pirates happen to need immediate depth, although that will be solved in the coming weeks by the returns of Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton.

Even though they aren’t ready, Cole and Oliver have still been performing for Indianapolis. Oliver has a 3.34 ERA in six starts, and really only has one bad start. Cole has dealt with control, and has left several starts early, but his overall numbers have been strong, with a 2.31 ERA.

Duke Welker has given up no earned runs and two hits while striking out 17 in 13 innings this year, and he’s not even the top option if the Pirates need a reliever.

The other prospects on the team are a reminder of last year’s situation. The Pirates have three late inning relief prospects with Indianapolis. All three could provide help early in the season. The only problem is that the major league bullpen doesn’t really need help right now, and definitely won’t need help when Jose Contreras and Charlie Morton return in the next few weeks. That means you’ve got Bryan Morris, Vic Black, and Duke Welker dominating in Triple-A, with no place to go.

Morris made it to the majors briefly this year, and could be an option again if Jared Hughes continues to struggle. So far in Triple-A he has given up one run in 6.1 innings, with a 4:1 K/BB ratio. Morris has been splitting time with Vic Black as the closer, and has five saves, with Black recording six.

There is very little for Morris to work on at the Triple-A level. He’s to the point where he needs to be in the majors. That wasn’t the case for Black and Welker coming in to the year. Both had dealt with control problems, although both are doing a good job this year with those issues.

Black has a 2.93 ERA in 15.1 innings, with an incredible 24:7 K/BB ratio. The walks are probably too high, but Black has been dominant with the strikeouts, and has only given up nine hits. He’s given up five earned runs on the year, and four of those have come in his second inning of work in multi-inning appearances. So as a one inning guy, he has been dominant.

Welker has thrown 13 innings without an earned run, giving up just two hits in that span. He’s also dominating with a 17:5 K/BB ratio. Again, the walks might be a little high, but he’s striking out more than a batter an inning, and not allowing many hits. Black and Welker both feature upper 90s fastballs and breaking pitches which could be considered plus offerings. Black’s slider is a mid-80s pitch with a lot of movement, while Welker throws an upper-80s hard slider.

The Minor League Free Agents

The prospects were being counted on from the start of the year. The surprise this season has been the minor league free agents. They are the reason Indianapolis hasn’t struggled despite losing McPherson and Irwin, having Cole leave early in three starts, and sending a few guys up to the majors. The Indians have been getting strong performances this year from Kris Johnson, Brooks Brown, Kyle Waldrop, Ryan Reid, Mike Zagurski, and Vin Mazzaro, who were all minor league free agents over the off-season.

Kris Johnson - He is the only player from the group who played in the Pirates’ organization last year. Johnson had a great off-season in the Dominican Winter League, and the Pirates put him in the rotation to stretch him out. So far he has a 2.08 ERA in 21.2 innings, with a 15:10 K/BB ratio. Johnson’s upside is probably more of a left-handed reliever who can pitch multiple innings.

Brooks Brown - Brown has stepped up in the last week to take a few starts in the rotation with Phil Irwin down. So far this year he has a 1.80 ERA in 20 innings, with a 16:5 K/BB ratio. He’s a sinkerball pitcher, which the Pirates seem to love. So far that has translated to a 1.53 GO/AO ratio this year. He throws his sinker in the 88-92 MPH range, and pairs that with a slider that can be a plus pitch at times. That combo makes him a better bullpen option, especially since his changeup is fringy.

Kyle Waldrop - Here is another sinkerball pitcher, only to the extreme. Waldrop has posted ground ball rates of 70% or higher in recent years. So far this year he has a 2.25 ERA in 16 innings, with a 14:2 K/BB ratio and a 2.67 GO/AO ratio. He has stepped up with two big starts after the absence of Irwin and McPherson, throwing 6.2 shutout innings in his first start, and giving up four runs but striking out eight in six innings in the second start.

Ryan Reid - He had an excellent Spring Training, and has been dominant in Triple-A with a 0.60 ERA in 15 innings, along with a 17:4 K/BB ratio. Reid has always posted strong numbers in the minors, with a 9.0 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9 last year in Triple-A. He has been versatile this year, throwing multi-inning outings, as well as working in middle relief and late in games.

Mike Zagurski - The Pirates certainly don’t have a shortage of left-handed options, and Zagurski has emerged as another candidate. He has a 1.74 ERA in 10.1 innings, with a 15:2 K/BB ratio. That follows a strong Spring Training where he was one of the last to be cut. Zagurski throws an 89-92 MPH fastball and a plus slider, which has led to the strong strikeout rate. His problems in the past have been his walk rate, so the low walk total this year is encouraging.

Vin Mazzaro - He’s currently in the majors, but before Mazzaro was promoted he had thrown seven shutout innings in Indianapolis, with a 9:1 K/BB ratio. Most of that came when he threw four shutout innings and struck out six on April 6th. He’s also the exception to this list, as Mazzaro was acquired in a minor trade with Kansas City, after being DFAd. He was later outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers.

Combined - This group of pitchers has combined for a 1.60 ERA and an 0.98 WHIP over 90 innings this year, along with an 8.6 K/9 and a 2.4 BB/9 ratio.

The key thing to consider with all of these guys is that they have been throwing in Triple-A for several years now. They are also pitching out of the bullpen, and we’re dealing with small sample sizes. So you can only take so much from the ERAs. The bigger thing to focus on when considering whether they can help in the majors is their stuff, and their K/BB ratios. Fortunately the Pirates don’t really need any of these guys right away. But it’s inevitable that the Pirates will need some of them throughout the year, and it’s good to see a group of candidates all putting up strong numbers in Triple-A for when those times come.

And as with last week’s recap, the same small sample size disclaimer is necessary.  It’s a long season, and I am only offering a glimpse of one week.  Now that that’s out of the way . . .

Stat lines only include the seven games from April 16-22^nd.

The Impressive

Casey Sadler had an impressive week last week.

Casey Sadler, SP: 1.29/0.86/7.71 (ERA/WHIP/K per 9) in 14 IP

Starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Stolmy Pimentel may have higher ceilings, but Casey Sadler is pitching like a prospect in his own right.  As I’ve written before, Sadler has great sleeper potential as a back-of-the-rotation starter.   He was an out-machine this past week, as his WHIP and ERA suggest, only giving up 2 earned runs in his two starts combined.  So far, he’s been able to keep his low-90s sinking fastball down in the zone to induce ground ball outs, which is important for Sadler since he doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff and does not profile as a high strikeout threat.  Some regression is probably coming for Sadler, who is stranding runners at a very high rate (86.8%).

Stolmy Pimentel, SP: 0.79/1.32/8.74 in 11.1 IP

Pimentel didn’t pitch as late into games as Sadler, and he was laboring in the 5^th inning in his second start of the week against Harrisburg.  That said, Pimentel has looked quite impressive so far, only giving up one earned run in 17.1 innings pitched.  His fastball has been sitting 93-94 mph with some good life (touching 96 mph) and he is showing confidence in his slider, which is much improved since last season before he joined the organization.  His high 2013 walk rate (4.15 per 9) is something to keep an eye on as the season moves along.  Like Sadler, I expect some regression soon, as Pimentel’s strand rate is a whopping 94.4% on the season. It’s great to get outs when men are on, but that number is not sustainable, even for the best pitchers in baseball.

The Good

Andrew Lambo, 1B/OF: 10-for-30 (.300), 3 2B, 1 R, 9 RBIs, 0 BB, 9 K, 2 SB

Lambo was on “the good” list last week, and he returns by getting a hit in every game this week, to go along with a 19 game streak of getting on base.  My only gripe with Lambo has been his high strikeout rate and low walk totals, which seem like less of a downside when the first baseman-outfielder is hitting .300 and is one of the few Curve run producers so far this season.  Manager Carlos Garcia informed me that a key for Lambo is his approach, being selective in the strike zone to get into better hitter’s counts, which seems to be one key to his success at the plate. His high strikeout rate (30% on the season) and .467 BABIP suggest a regression on the way, but after seeing his stock drop for the past two seasons, it’s good to see Lambo having some success.

Matt Curry, 1B/OF: 6-for-17 (.352), 2B, 2 HR, 4 R, 6 RBIs, 0 BB, 5 Ks

The big first basemen hit the ball well this week, including home runs in back-to-back games against Harrisburg over the weekend.  There are actually a lot of similarities between Curry and Lambo—both left-handed hitters who are limited to corner positions and trying to work their way out of AA after a few seasons.  A key difference is that Curry has more raw power, and this week he started to put it together.  Like Lambo, Curry strikes out a lot (26.4%), and he’s only registered two walks in 72 plate appearances so far in 2013.

Jeff Inman, RP: 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3.2 innings

Inman gave up a run in each of his first two appearances earlier this season, but has now gone his last 6.1 innings scoreless.  I saw Inman throwing 95-96 last week against Harrisburg, locating well.  He was able to get ahead in counts with his fastball to set-up his curveball, which also looked good.  It will be mid-season by the time I’ve seen enough out of relievers to draw any conclusions, but so far so good for Inman, who has the makings of a good middle relief option moving forward.

The Not-so-good

Alex Dickerson, 1B/OF: 2-for-22 (.091), 2B, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 R, 0 RBI

Dickerson is really struggling with the jump to AA pitching, particularly with his plate patience, only taking one walk so far this season and finding himself frequently behind in the count.  He might just be a slow-starter, as he had a rough April and May in Bradenton last year before tearing it up in the summer.  Lacking substantial defensive value, the expectations are for Dickerson to be a run producer from a corner spot.

Nate Baker, RP: 5 ER, 4 BB, 1 K in 2 innings.

Small sample size sure, but it’s not a good sign when your walk total is higher than your innings pitched.  He just can’t find the strike zone.

Worth watching:

Mel Rojas, Jr., CF: 7-23 (.304), 2 2B, 1 HR, 5 R, 1 RBI, 4 BB, 6 K

I expected Rojas, Jr. to come to Altoona and struggle to start the season, as he wasn’t particularly stellar in Bradenton last season and the jump to AA is most challenging for young hitters.  Rojas, Jr. is holding his own, and he was thrust into the lead-off spot to start the year, which is not the ideal fit for him, since he’s not an OBP guy.  It’s still early, but his strikeout rate is better so far in 2013 than in previous seasons.  He’s a good defensive center fielder with some (but not great) speed on the bases, so he can contribute in different facets of the game.

Mandatory Taillon Category:

Jameson Taillon, SP, .346 ERA/1.08 WHIP/6.23 K per 9

I almost posted this article without discussing Taillon’s week, since it didn’t really fit any of my categories.  But since  he’s by far the best prospect in Altoona, he probably deserves his own spot in this recap.  Taillon has not had great command in 2013, despite some impressive results, including some high strikeout performances.  When he’s locked in, as he was in the last four innings of his first start of the week, he’s almost un-hittable.  But when he leaves the fastball up in the zone, good hitters, even at the AA level, can make him pay.  His second start of the week, allowing 5 ER in 6 innings, is no reason to be alarmed since we can’t expect anyone to be dominant every time out, and it serves as a good reality check to all those pushing for a Taillon promotion—he still has things to work on in AA and that’s OK.

Andy Oliver is off to a great start with the Pirates.

One of the top starters in the minor league system this year has been Andy Oliver. His start last week was the highest game score in the minor league system this year, and it was the second of three weeks where he was the top pitcher.

Oliver was acquired from the Detroit Tigers over the off-season in a one-for-one trade for catching prospect Ramon Cabrera. He was a second rounder in the 2009 draft, taken by Detroit 58th overall. He made it to the majors in 2010, his first year as a pro, although he didn’t have the best results due to poor control. Baseball America rated him their 87th best prospect prior to the 2011 season. However, control issues have lowered Oliver’s stock the last two years.

It hasn’t been uncommon for top pitching prospects to struggle in the Detroit system. They have a habit of rushing top pitchers, leading to some promising arms underperforming. It has happened with Jacob Turner, Oliver, and Rick Porcello. Turner looked like he had turned things around thanks to a change of scenery in a trade last year to Miami, although he’s off to a bad start in Triple-A this year.

The hope is that a change in scenery for Oliver will help him out. The Pirates are also working on a few things with his game. So far the results look promising. Oliver has a 2.11 ERA in 21.1 innings, with a 12.2 K/9 and a 5.1 BB/9 ratio. The walks are still too high, but Oliver is countering that with a low hit total. He has only allowed 12 hits this year, for a .164 BAA. Last year he had a 4.88 ERA in 118 innings in Triple-A, with an 8.5 K/9, a 6.7 BB/9, and a .235 BAA. So far in the early part of the 2013 season his strikeouts are up, and the walks and opposing average are down, which is a good sign.

Oliver is showing flashes of doing what Justin Wilson did in previous years. Wilson has always been plagued by control issues, but has countered that with a lot of strikeouts and a low opposing average. Oliver also has good stuff for a lefty, with a fastball that usually sits 92-94 and can touch 96. Pirates farm director Larry Broadway agreed with the Wilson comparison.

“There’s some flashes of what Justin Wilson was last year, with effective wildness,” Broadway said in response to the Wilson comparison. “He’s got plus stuff. It’s tough enough for guys to square up when he’s got some effective wildness. Still some things going on. Still some things he’s working on, but he’s been better. He’s been effective.”

The Pirates have had their struggles in the major league rotation. Jonathan Sanchez has been off to a bad start, and Jeff Locke also isn’t doing well in the early part of the season. They’ve got Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton returning soon from rehab starts. If Oliver is needed before then, the Pirates won’t hold him back for developmental purposes.

“If the need comes open in Pittsburgh and he’s next in line, then he’ll go up,” Broadway said. “We’re not going to just hold him back because we’re trying to do something with him. He’s already been there. He’s already contributed there. If we have the need, he’s going to go.”

Oliver is slated to make his next start for Indianapolis on Wednesday.

Gerrit Cole Dealing With Command Issues

Gerrit Cole hasn’t gotten off to the best start this year with Indianapolis. He’s been removed early in three of his starts due to a high pitch count. In the fourth start he went 6.1 innings, but walked four. On the season he has a 14:11 K/BB ratio in 16.1 innings.

“He’s just getting deep in the counts, and trouble putting people away,” Larry Broadway said. “Too many deep counts, and too many pitches per inning.” Broadway added that Cole has been struggling with his command, leading to too many balls.

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America profiled Cole on Monday, looking at his issues this year. Cooper noted that 25 of the 49 strikes Cole threw in his last start were foul balls. 20 of his 42 strikes in his second start of the year were foul balls. Cooper noted that Cole was having problems putting batters away, and needed more time in Indianapolis. Cooper also described how Cole was up 0-2 on Emmanuel Burriss at one point with two outs, and 22 pitches later he had walked the bases loaded.

I don’t think this is a long-term issue for Cole. Pat Lackey also followed his start on Sunday, and noted that the opposing hitters weren’t really making hard contact. For now it’s just a command issue, and problems putting upper level hitters away. So often people look at the potential for a player and assume that’s automatic and already existing. Cole has the potential to be a number one starter, but he has to get there. There’s a reason the minor leagues exist, and that’s to develop players to their full potential. It seems that the recent opinion of Triple-A is that it’s an optional level, and only used to send players down for a few weeks to gain an extra year of service time and avoid Super Two status. I think these issues from Cole, as well as the previous struggles from Andy Oliver, are a reminder that Triple-A is just another developmental level, and not one that should be passed over.

Could Jordy Mercer Be the Shortstop of the Future?

Jordy Mercer is off to a good start in Indianapolis this year. The shortstop is hitting for a .303/.390/.409 line in 66 at-bats this year. He’s showing great plate patience with a 10:11 BB/K ratio. Coming into the year, Mercer had 33 walks in 435 at-bats in Triple-A. Mercer is also a capable defender at shortstop, to the point where he could be a starting option for the Pirates down the line.

“He’s very reliable,” Broadway said. “There’s nothing flashy about him. He’s a vanilla type and reliable. You can count on him to make the routine plays.”

The Pirates currently have Clint Barmes as their shortstop, although Barmes is a free agent at the end of the year. If the Pirates chose to replace Barmes with an internal option, Mercer would be the top choice.

“There’s a chance he’s going to put himself in that position to compete for that spot,” Broadway said, also noting that Mercer could come up whenever a need came up at the shortstop position.

The Pirates haven’t given a lot of playing time to Mercer in the past when he’s been in the majors. Eventually they will need to give him a chance, unless they’re content with always looking to the free agent market for a starting shortstop. That route usually doesn’t produce strong options for small market teams, usually being limited to Clint Barmes types with all defense and very little offensive production.

Adrian Sampson has struggled early in games this year, but has a lot of potential once he learns to control his emotions.

One of the starters I was looking forward to seeing this year in Bradenton was Adrian Sampson. I heard a lot of good reports on him from last season, and saw him pitch during instructs. He received a somewhat aggressive promotion to Bradenton this year, and has made all three starts on the year at home, giving me three chances to see him in the early part of the season. In all three starts, the story was the same. Sampson started off rough, allowing a lot of early damage.

In his first start Sampson got into jams in the first two innings, but escaped with only one run allowed. He didn’t escape in the third, giving up five runs and leaving with two outs after a two-run homer to cap off his outing.

In the second start Sampson gave up three hits to start the game, leading to two runs in the first. After those three hits, Sampson retired his next 13 batters before giving up a walk and a single with one out in the fifth inning and being pulled for Robbie Kilcrease.

The third outing was similar to the second. Sampson started out giving up a leadoff walk, which were soon followed by two one out singles to bring in a run. In the second inning he gave up a leadoff double, and the run scored on a two-out single to center. He gave up another run after two straight hits to lead off the third. After that, Sampson settled down, retiring his final six batters, including striking out the side in the fifth to give him seven strikeouts on the day.

“My stuff’s good enough that I can get guys out,” Sampson said. “In the beginning it’s all a mental thing. I have the stuff to do it, and if I can get past the mental side I can do pretty good.”

Sampson mentioned after each start that he was dealing with early inning jitters. I spoke with Marauders pitching coach Justin Meccage about how he might get around those early inning problems.

“I think the natural thing for a young guy in the league is for the effort to be a little bit more than usual. I think the last couple of outings you see that [in] the first, second, and third innings, where the effort is more than what we’d like to see. I think what we need to continue to do is to help him mentally to control his thoughts and to control his effort.”

Meccage also mentioned that Sampson was a young guy who was fired up to pitch in the Florida State League, which is another contributing factor. Meccage is no stranger to Sampson’s stuff and ability. He was the pitching coach last year in State College where Sampson threw 42.2 innings. So he already knows that Sampson has the makings of a good three pitch mix, and already has a curveball which is already a great out pitch.

“It would help if he used that earlier,” Meccage said of the curve. “He waits too long to use that curveball. He has the ability to throw that in any count. And I think if he goes to that earlier, it calms him down a little bit and gives him some comfort.”

Meccage noted that the fastball is still a work in progress, and isn’t consistent, but that there are times when it is downhill. He did note that Sampson is doing a better job of pitching inside this year. He also has seen improvements in the changeup from last year to this year.

“It was a little firm last year,” Meccage said, noting that the pitch would be in the 85-87 range last year, but was slower this year. “The biggest improvement is there’s a little bit of sink-life to it at the end of it. It’s something that he can use in any count as well. He’s comfortable doing that.”

Sampson has a good mix of pitches, but he’s currently being held back by those early inning jitters. Once he gets past that, he could develop into a solid pitching prospect. We’re already seeing evidence of that with his 56 strikeouts in 54.2 innings as a pro. He’s shown his potential in the later innings of the last two starts after settling down. It’s just a matter of getting him to the point where he’s settled heading into the start.

Matt Benedict Focused on His Off-Speed Stuff Over the Off-Season

Matt Benedict has a 4.61 ERA in 13.2 innings this season. However, his stuff has been much better than that. The sinker ball pitcher has been hurt at times by the poor defense behind him. In his first game of the year he gave up seven runs, with only two earned, and was bounced after three innings. In his next two starts he combined for five earned runs in 10.2 innings, although most of those runs were due to errors that were ruled as hits. He also has an 11:2 K/BB ratio in the last two starts, which is definitely a positive sign.

“I feel like so far my stuff’s been good,” Benedict said. “I’ve been aggressive with it. I’m pretty happy with the way I’ve been throwing overall. A few mistakes here and there, but I feel like I’m getting better and just building on it.”

I’ve seen Benedict’s last two starts, and was impressed with each outing. In the past I’ve seen Benedict and considered him more of an organizational guy. He was a sinkerball pitcher with no off-speed stuff, which led to high ground ball rates and low strikeout totals. That’s not a good combination for success in the upper levels. Benedict focused on his off-speed stuff over the off-season, and feels that the pitches have been good this year.

“I think my first couple of years here I didn’t really use any off-speed pitches,” Benedict said. “Just a few here and there during the game. But I learned last year that I need to throw them more during the game and I’ve got to get better with them.”

He did throw a changeup before. That was one of his better off-speed pitches in college. His curveball looks good this year. It’s a very loopy pitch, and comes in around the low 70s. Because of the big break, it looks much slower than it is, adding some deception. His sinker isn’t thrown very hard, working in the upper 80s, but the separation between the two pitches speeds up the sinker after watching the slower curve.

I’m not sure if Benedict has an easy path to the majors. The odds are against low-velocity guys who get by on their ability to pitch more than their stuff. I do know that Benedict looks much better than he did two years ago in State College, and last year when I saw him in Spring Training.