Before we get to the links, allow me to go over the coverage that we will provide on the site. Each night we have a Prospect Watch, which recaps what every team did in the system, highlighting the individual prospect performances. Pirates Prospects receives daily reports from each team. We also provide coverage throughout the year of every affiliate, getting a live look at the players. Each night we upload the Minor League Schedule (link found on the right sidebar of every page on the site), highlighting the pitchers who are starting the next day, and some of the recent trends with each team. Each week we provide a recap of the best hitting and pitching performers from the previous week. The newest feature on the site is the Organizational Probable Pitching Chart, which gives a long-term view of the projected starters for each team, all on one page.

Now here are the lineups, rotations, top prospects, and the season previews.

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 Minor League Lineups

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 Minor League Rotations

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 Top 20 Prospects

Team Previews

2013 Indianapolis Indians Season Preview

2013 Altoona Curve Season Preview

2013 Bradenton Marauders Season Preview

2013 West Virginia Power Season Preview

Analysis

Which Prospects From Indianapolis Will Help the Pirates This Year?

8 prospects, 8 questions: An initial look at the Altoona Curve’s top prospects

Can the Pirates Get Impact Talent to the Upper Levels?

Is West Virginia Primed For Another Year of Breakout Players?

I was thinking about that when I was thinking about the 2013 West Virginia Power roster. I previewed the 2013 club yesterday, noting that they’ve got a lot of potential breakout prospects this year. After writing that, I wanted to make sure I wasn’t making a same-organization comparison. The 2012 West Virginia team had the two biggest breakout prospects in the system in Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco. The obvious approach this year would be to look for the next Hanson and Polanco in West Virginia.

Here’s the flaw with that line of thinking. The next Hanson or Polanco might not come from West Virginia. They could come from Bradenton, or Altoona, or lower in the system. It could be that we won’t see a guy break out this season like Hanson and Polanco did last year. They were two of the biggest breakout prospects in baseball. Having that happen two years in a row in the same system would be rare.

It’s true that West Virginia has a lot of young talent. They’ve also got guys who look like they could have a Hanson/Polanco sized breakout. But is that view because the Pirates actually have another group of guys who are primed for a breakout, all at the same level, and all one year later? Or are we forcing a comparison and trying to find a breakout player on this year’s West Virginia team because Hanson and Polanco broke out last year?

To get an idea of the chances of a breakout from this year’s players, let’s look at some of the candidates. We’ll not only look at what makes them a breakout candidate, but what other outlets are saying about them.

Dilson Herrera - It only seems fitting to start with the guy who was picked as the most likely to be this year’s Hanson/Polanco. That’s according to Ben Badler of Baseball America, who named Herrera number one on his ten international players most likely to break out in 2013. The bar for the ten players was Hanson and Polanco. Herrera is a plus hitter, and can hit for some power, despite a smaller size. He’s also a good runner on the bases, and looked like a threat to steal every time he was on base this Spring. Herrera is very advanced for an international hitter, with a 20.6 K% and a 7.9 BB% in the GCL last year. He also had a .340 wOBA. By comparison, Hanson had a 17.2 K%, a 9.0 BB%, and a .335 wOBA in the GCL. So Herrera is in a similar range, and his other stats are either similar or better.

Wyatt Mathisen - Speaking of Ben Badler, he also did the top 20 prospects list for the 2012 Gulf Coast League. Herrera came in at seventh, but two spots higher was Wyatt Mathisen. The Pirates took Mathisen in the second round of the 2012 draft. He’s a prep catcher, although he didn’t spend a lot of time behind the plate in high school, as his coach used him more at shortstop. It’s not just Badler who had Mathisen ranked high. Keith Law had him as the ninth best prospect in the system. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com listed him just outside of baseball’s top ten catching prospects. Kylie McDaniel also had a good report on Mathisen during instructs. He displayed some good hitting skills this Spring, and has a good frame and good tools behind the plate. When he was drafted he seemed like a really strong pick for a second rounder, and the Pirates obviously feel highly of him, sending him to low-A in his first full season.

Tyler Glasnow is a breakout candidate this year.

Tyler Glasnow - Moving down the 2012 GCL top 20, the next prospect we come to is Glasnow. The tall right-hander came in at number nine on the GCL list from last year. He already has a fastball that can touch 96-98 MPH, and has a curveball which can be a plus offering when he’s commanding it well. Glasnow is only 19 years old, and already has the makings of two plus pitches. That gives him the chance to be as good as prospects like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Of course having an upper 90s fastball and a plus breaking pitch doesn’t guarantee success. Stetson Allie had those two things, but struggled with command. Glasnow has dealt with some control problems, which will be something for him to work on. He also needs to develop his changeup. He’s starting to get some attention, and if the control and changeup come along this year, he could start drawing consideration for top 100 lists next year.

Clay Holmes - Holmes is a similar situation to Glasnow. He’s a tall right-hander who has a good fastball, although not with the 96-98 MPH velocity. Holmes was getting his fastball up to the 93-95 MPH range this Spring, and pairs that with a strong curveball. He was consistently rated in the top ten of the Pirates system by a lot of national outlets. Holmes might not have as high of a ceiling as Glasnow, but he also might have a higher floor. He seems more likely to become a strong number three workhorse starter, rather than a potential top of the rotation guy. But I couldn’t help but notice his fastball velocity keeps creeping up, and he’s still young enough that we probably shouldn’t put a hard ceiling on him just yet.

Barrett Barnes - I hesitated to put Barnes on this list. He was a first round compensation talent, and the Pirates got him with their first round compensation pick (which was lower than where he was ranked). Barnes is pretty consistently ranked in the top ten in the Pirates’ system, and higher than the other guys on this list. He’s got a chance to be an impact bat in the majors one day, and a five tool talent. He’s not in West Virginia yet, as he’s getting more at-bats in extended Spring Training after some back tightness late in camp. The reason I was hesitant about including him was because, as a highly ranked draft pick, it wouldn’t be a shock if he’s a top 100 prospect next year. But if I drew the line here, then I’d have to consider Mathisen as a second round pick, and then where do you draw the line? Well, that answer comes next.

The Others - Ben Linus is a good sleeper prospect, but I think he’ll be facing a one year suspension after originally coming into the league under the name Henry Gale. Oh, wait. Not those “others”. I didn’t include Josh Bell on this list, because he didn’t really belong. Bell had a ton of hype last year, and while some of that died off because he missed some time, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he broke out. In fact, if he has a great season like Hanson and Polanco did last year, it wouldn’t be the same as those two, since Bell is already considered a top prospect. So I guess Josh Bell was the line as far as guys who are expected to have good results and become top 100 prospects. I also didn’t include Max Moroff or Eric Wood. I think both could have a future as major league players, but I don’t see them having a shot at becoming top 50 or top 100 prospects in the game a year from now.

Will Someone Have a Breakout Season?

So could the Pirates have another Alen Hanson/Gregory Polanco in West Virginia? As coincidental as it seems, I would say yes. There’s definitely some talent there, with a lot of breakout candidates. On that same note, I don’t think it’s fair to label anyone as the next Hanson/Polanco. It’s also not really fair to have this discussion. Dilson Herrera could have a good year that would validate his prospect status, but if he doesn’t put up ridiculous numbers and become the talk of minor league baseball, he might be seen as somewhat of a disappointment. Without the lofty Hanson/Polanco expectations, that wouldn’t be the case.

This time last year we didn’t even expect Hanson/Polanco results from Hanson and Polanco. I first wrote about the international prospects at the beginning of March last Spring in this article. At the time, Jose Osuna was a higher ranked prospect than Hanson and Polanco, and none of them were really expected to have huge breakout seasons. They were just guys to watch, who could eventually develop into strong players. Granted, I did say in that article that Polanco could have a breakout season. However, if you ask Wilbur Miller, that’s something I said every time I saw Polanco. So I happened to be right last year, but I was wrong in 2011. And looking at that article, I guess I’m still waiting on Luis Urena.

I think a fair approach with the guys above would be to take the Hanson/Polanco approach from last year. All of these guys are talented players, and all could eventually go on to be top 100 prospects. But I think Hanson and Polanco have us expecting another breakout candidate from West Virginia, which means if one or more of these guys don’t have a monster season and end up on the top prospect lists next year, it would be a disappointment. That shouldn’t be the case. As long as the majority keep progressing forward, and don’t take a step back, that will be good. Any Hanson/Polanco type breakouts would just be a bonus.

Lineup

C – Jacob Stallings

1B – Jose Osuna

2B – Dan Gamache

SS – Alen Hanson

3B – Eric Avila

LF – Taylor Lewis

CF – Gregory Polanco

RF – Willy Garcia

DH – Carlos Mesa

Last year the West Virginia Power was the team to watch, mostly due to the talent on offense. That talent has taken a jump to Bradenton this year, making the Marauders one of the most interesting teams in the system.

The group is led by Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco. The two hitters were not only the biggest breakout prospects in the system last year, but some of the biggest breakout prospects in baseball. They were both consistently placed on top 100 lists this year, with both of them cracking a few top 50 lists. Polanco is a five tool center fielder. He’s got a ton of speed, mostly coming from his long legs which allow him to glide across the outfield, or from base to base. He’s got a strong arm, which will keep him in center. At the plate he has good plate patience, which is rare from guys coming out of the Dominican Republic. He also hits for average, and the big thing is his power. Polanco added some bulk last year, and his power exploded. He looks to have added some more, to the point where we could see even more power from him in the future.

The big question surrounding Alen Hanson is whether he can stick at shortstop.

Alen Hanson gets a lot of his value from being a plus hitter who can hit for power from the shortstop position. Hanson is one of the best pure hitters in the system, and can hit for power, as evident by his 16 homers and .219 ISO last year. The big question is whether he can stick at shortstop. His hitting is so good that he’ll be a valuable prospect, even if he has to move to second base. For now he’s got a shot at sticking at short, if only because the Pirates don’t have a lot of options to push him over to second. Hanson also has the tools to stick at short. His arm is good enough, and he’s got range. The glove could use some work, as that’s been the root of all the errors so far. That should be the focus for Hanson in the next year or two.

Jose Osuna and Willy Garcia didn’t have the big breakout seasons that Hanson and Polanco had, but both put up good power numbers. Osuna hit for a .280 average with 16 homers. Garcia hit 18 homers, but had a .240 average and a lot of strikeouts. Plate patience is going to be an issue for either guy. Osuna doesn’t strike out a lot, but doesn’t draw a lot of walks. Garcia’s strikeouts are too high, and his walks are low. But these are common issues with young guys coming out of the international leagues. Guys like Hanson and Polanco are rare. Both guys will need power as their main tool to make it to the majors, and they already have that. But they’ll also need improvements on their plate patience, and that’s not an easy improvement to make.

Speaking of power and plate patience, one guy to watch this year is Eric Avila. We were high on him for his power potential entering the 2011 season. The third baseman struggled in West Virginia, then didn’t get much playing time in the first half of the 2012 season. In the second half he exploded, hitting for a .291/.328/.564 line with 11 homers in 165 at-bats. That comes with the disclaimer that he was repeating the level, so we’ll have to see how he does at a higher level in 2013.

The rest of the guys in the lineup have upsides as bench players in the majors. Dan Gamache is a strong defender at second and third. He’s also a good hitter, but doesn’t hit for enough power to be a starter. Jacob Stallings is a good defender behind the plate, and great at working with pitching staffs. He’s tall and skinny, and doesn’t have the normal catcher’s body, which could hurt him in the upper levels. If he makes it to the majors, it would be as a backup catcher. Taylor Lewis is a speedy outfielder who got off to a hot start with West Virginia last year, only to cool after his first month. He doesn’t have the arm strength for center, so he’ll need to add some power to his game to have value in left.

Carlos Mesa is an interesting story. He signed out of Cuba for $490,000 as a 23-year-old. He was a pitcher, but the Pirates switched him to right field, where he displayed a plus arm. I didn’t see a lot that I liked out of Mesa in his first two years, and was surprised when I learned his bonus was so high. Then, during instructs last year, I noticed what I thought was a new international hitter. Turns out it was a slimmed down Carlos Mesa. He was looking more like a prospect, hitting the ball well and showing some speed. I don’t know if he’s going to make it, but I do know that I had him as a non-prospect his first two years, and now I’d at least give him a shot to eventually be something. He needs to do it quick, since he’ll be 25 this year.

Bench

Elias Diaz, Benji Gonzalez, Chris Lashmet, Dan Grovatt

Stallings will get more time behind the plate, but Elias Diaz will get his share of the catching duties. He’s got a plus arm, a good frame, and has some raw hitting skills, but hasn’t put things together yet. Benji Gonzalez is a strong defensive middle infielder who doesn’t do much at the plate. Chris Lashmet played a lot of third base this Spring, and could be an option to fill in for Avila. He’s built like a linebacker, but hasn’t used his size to hit for power yet. Dan Grovatt has a plus arm and is a good defensive outfielder. He’s also been a good hitter, but doesn’t hit for the power you’d want to see from a corner outfielder. He could get some time as the DH.

Starting Rotation

Nick Kingham, Robby Rowland, Adrian Sampson, Matt Benedict, Eliecer Navarro/Zack Von Rosenberg

Nick Kingham is a sleeper prospect in the Pirates’ system, although more people are taking notice. Kingham throws in the low-to-mid 90s, topping out at 96 now. He has a curveball and a changeup which can both be above average pitches when he’s got his command. The command of those pitches escaped him in parts of the first two seasons, mostly because he was focusing so much on the fastball. Kingham has great control, and put up some quietly dominant numbers last year, especially in the second half. He’s got the build and the stuff to be a 200 inning per year number three starter.

A year ago around this time, Robby Rowland had just joined the organization. He was acquired for 2011 Rule 5 pick Brett Lorin, who was kept by the Diamondbacks. Rowland was coming off two horrible years in rookie ball, and didn’t look like much of a prospect based on his numbers. He lowered his arm slot to three quarters and started throwing a sinker, and as a result he went from horrible rookie ball numbers to some strong numbers in full season A-ball. His sinker led to a 55% ground ball percentage, and should help him at McKechnie Field, where the Gulf Coast breezes can turn routine fly balls into home runs.

Seeing Adrian Sampson here is a bit of a surprise. He was drafted in the fifth round last year out of college, and pitched in the New York Penn League. It’s not a surprise in the sense that Sampson isn’t ready. He was a college pitcher who can get his fastball up to 94 MPH. He also throws a sharp curveball with good depth, leading to a lot of strikeouts. There’s a reason why we had him as our number 17 prospect this year. The surprise is that the Pirates went with this aggressive push for a fifth round pick. In the five years worth of drafts, the only starting pitchers the Pirates have sent straight to high-A in their first seasons have been Justin Wilson and Gerrit Cole. That says a lot about how the Pirates feel about Sampson.

Matt Benedict is another sinkerball pitcher, although he doesn’t have the control Rowland has, and doesn’t get as many strikeouts. Benedict made the jump to high-A last year, but struggled with an 8.08 ERA in 49 innings. Some of that was due to a poor defense behind him. He had better numbers in West Virginia, but was also a college pitcher playing in low-A.

Zack Von Rosenberg will make the jump to high-A this year after struggling for two seasons in low-A. He’s had a problem leaving the fastball up in the zone, and the solution seems to be switching to a two-seam fastball. Von Rosenberg throws the ball down in the zone, but was only in the 80-85 MPH range during Spring Training. He mentioned that he can throw the pitch at 86-87 MPH, but the jury is still out on how effective he will be with this new approach. He will be piggybacking starts with Eliecer Navarro, who is a lefty starter with a good curveball.

Bullpen

Zac Fuesser, Robbie Kilcrease, Quinton Miller, Joan Montero, Jhonathan Ramos, Zach Thornton

Quinton Miller was the first of many big bonus prep pitchers to sign with the Pirates. He used to throw in the mid-90s, but was throwing a two-seam fastball this Spring, working in the upper 80s. The hope when he was drafted was that he could be a mid-rotation starter or better in the majors, but it looks like his only path now will be as a reliever.

Zac Fuesser has posted good numbers the last few years working in the swingman role in West Virginia. The lefty has good off-speed stuff, and good location on his fastball. He should return to the same role in Bradenton, pitching 2-3 innings after the starter comes out.

Joan Montero is an interesting arm to follow. He throws 93-95 with good downward movement, although he’s dealt with control problems. The fastball is lively, and he pairs it with a slider that has led to a career 7.9 K/9 in the minors.

Lineup

C – Wyatt Mathisen

1B – Stetson Allie

2B – Dilson Herrera

SS – Max Moroff

3B – Eric Wood

LF – Walker Gourley

CF – Raul Fortunato (Barrett Barnes)

RF – Josh Bell

DH – D.J. Crumlich

Last year West Virginia had the most talent in the system, and two of the biggest breakout prospects in the game. This year they’ve got a roster full of young talent, with several players having breakout potential. That could lead to another strong year for the Power.

Josh Bell was a guy to watch heading into last season. He only played for one month before going down with a knee injury. Bell had his recovery delayed due to swelling in the knee, and ended up missing the season. As a result, he added some weight, then turned some of that weight into muscle over the off-season at IMG Academy. The shiny new toy factor with Bell seems to have worn off. People are starting to get down on him, even though we’ve only seen him play one month of pro ball. The reports from Baseball Prospectus on his Spring were exaggerated.  Some of the downsides have always been there (average arm, he’s not the best runner). As for his hitting, Bell didn’t crush the ball like he did last Spring, but he also didn’t look like a guy who needed more time in extended Spring Training. I think we need to withhold judgement on him until we can actually see what he can do over a full season.

Dilson Herrera could be this year’s Alen Hanson.

Last year the breakout prospects were Alen Hanson and Gregory Polanco. This year the favorite to break out is Dilson Herrera. If we’re comparing him to last year’s breakout hitters, Herrera would be closer to Hanson. They both have received favorable prospect reports in the lower levels. Scouts love them, and they both get their value from the bat. Herrera has excellent bat speed and can hit for some power. Defensively he’s limited to second base, but his bat is good enough to make him a top prospect there.

Wyatt Mathisen is another guy to watch. The Pirates drafted him in the second round last year. He was drafted as a catcher, even though he played more games at shortstop in high school. Mathisen is very athletic and has great pure hitting skills. Because he hasn’t spent much time behind the plate, he’s raw. The Pirates immediately had him working on his catching with Tom Prince and Milver Reyes in the GCL after signing. The bat is there, but the big focus will be on developing his skills behind the plate.

Max Moroff and Eric Wood are two sleeper prospects from the 2012 draft. Moroff is a shortstop who displayed some good hitting skills last year, and showed off a lot of range at short this Spring. Eric Wood is a third baseman who has a strong arm and hit for some power in the GCL after signing. They might not have the upside of Herrera or Mathisen, and if they break out it probably won’t be as big as Hanson and Polanco, but they both have the chance to be promising infield prospects.

Stetson Allie will return to West Virginia for the third year in a row, only this time he’ll be a hitter. I wasn’t impressed with Allie’s hitting last year in the GCL. He didn’t do much early in camp this year. Later in camp he started getting more hits, but the power wasn’t showing up. He also dealt with plate patience issues throughout the process. The Pirates started him off at third base, but quickly moved him to first base last year, and he’s remained at the position. That’s a position where his value is going to be based entirely off his bat, so the lack of power and the strikeout problems are a concern.

Barrett Barnes will start the season in extended Spring Training after dealing with some back tightness at the end of Spring. He’s currently slated to get some at-bats, and will eventually join West Virginia. Barnes will play center field, and has a chance to be a future impact bat.

Bench

Francisco Diaz, Ashley Ponce, Junior Sosa, Jonathan Schwind

Francisco Diaz has good defense and hit well, but looks more like a lower level depth option. Ashley Ponce is an infielder and is also an organizational guy. Junior Sosa is a small, speedy outfielder with no power. Jonathan Schwind was converted to a catcher when the Pirates drafted him, but started playing left field at the end of camp. He played almost every position on the field at Marist, and could get plenty of time as a utility player this year.

Starting Rotation

Tyler Glasnow, Clay Holmes, John Kuchno, Joely Rodriguez, Orlando Castro (Zack Dodson)

Last year West Virginia had a lot of offensive talent, but only a few top pitching prospects to watch. This year the lineup looks promising, and the young pitchers also look promising. Tyler Glasnow leads the group. He’s a 6′ 8″, 220 pound 19-year-old right-hander who can touch 96-98 MPH with his fastball. He also throws a curveball which can be a plus pitch. Glasnow doesn’t really have a ceiling at this point. He could be as good of a prospect as Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon down the line. For now he’s still developing. His control will be a big thing to watch this year, along with the development of his changeup.

Clay Holmes posted some strong numbers last year in State College. He’s another tall, skinny, big bonus pitcher, receiving $1.2 M as a ninth round pick. Holmes was working in the 90-93 MPH range last year, but was 93-95 in his last start this Spring. He has a good curveball, but didn’t use it often last year as the Pirates were stressing fastball and changeup. He’ll be using the pitch more this year, which will hopefully lead to more strikeouts.

The Pirates have a history of using their best arms as starters, even when those arms profile as relievers. That’s pretty common with most teams. John Kuchno fits that description. He throws his fastball in the mid-90s, and has a good curveball to pair with that fastball. He’s also a big pitcher at 6′ 5″, 210 pounds. He’ll get innings as a starter for now, but he looks more like a power reliever who could pitch in the late innings down the line.

Joely Rodriguez is a guy I’ve been intrigued by for the last few years. I first saw him at the end of the 2010 season hitting 94 MPH with a lively fastball. He moved up to the State College rotation in 2011, but an arm injury ended his season after two starts. Last year he returned to State College and looked pretty good, working in the 87-91 MPH range with better control of his pitches. He’s got a good three pitch mix with his two-seam fastball, a slider, and a changeup. His off-speed stuff is advanced, and all three of his pitches cut. Control is still something to watch, and he could use a little separation between his pitches, since the off-speed stuff sits in the low-to-mid 80s and the fastball sits in the upper 80s, lower 90s.

Orlando Castro will start off the season in the West Virginia rotation. He’s a lefty with a good breaking pitch, but unlike a lot of similar left-handers, Castro can touch the low-90s with his fastball. Zack Dodson will return from his suspension sometime at the end of April. It’s not clear yet whether Dodson would return to West Virginia, or make the jump to Bradenton. If he goes to West Virginia, I’m guessing he’ll replace Castro, or at least piggyback with him.

Bullpen

Pat Ludwig, Jason Creasy, Ryan Hafner, Kyle Haynes, David Jagoditsh, Josh Smith, Bryton Trepagnier

In the past, West Virginia has had more pitchers than spots. That has led to a lot of piggybacking, a lot of multi-inning relievers, and a lot of roster moves throughout the season to bring in fresh pitchers. This year shouldn’t be much different. Jason Creasy and Ryan Hafner should both see multiple innings when they pitch, possibly getting 3-4 innings in some outings. David Jagoditsh and Bryton Trepagnier could also be candidates for multiple innings. The rest look more like one inning options.

Since I’ll be in Altoona periodically this summer to cover the Curve for Pirates Prospects, I’m starting to have questions about some of the prospects that I’ll be looking at, many for the first time. It’s been said over and over that the jump to AA is the most difficult in the minor leagues, and even the top prospects walk into AA with question marks about their true ceiling and long-term value.

Seven players in the top 40 of the 2013 Prospect Guide will begin the year in Altoona, and Stolmy Pimentel would have been number eight had he been traded before press time. Below is a list of these eight prospects and the one question I’m pondering most about each. I don’t include any would-be call-ups in the list, only those slated to start the year in AA, and surely many other questions could be asked about each player.

Click Here for the 2013 Altoona Curve Preview

Jameson Taillon: “Will the performance match the stuff?” (Pirates Prospects [PP] #2)

Virtually no one in baseball questions Jameson Taillon’s stuff. He was drafted with two plus pitches in his four-seam fastball and curve, and his change-up and two-seam fastball are both above average, the latter a possible third plus pitch. What has surprised some evaluators is that for as good as the stuff is, thus far he hasn’t consistently missed bats or been dominant. If the stuff is so good, why don’t we see it in the box score?

The Pirates, their fans, and this writer have high expectations for Taillon, and I expect him to impress this season in AA. For his past two seasons, the Pirates have been very careful with Taillon’s development, and this year he has a chance to put it all together. Unlike previous seasons where the focus was mechanical —shortening the drop in his delivery to create more angle on his fastball for one — Taillon will not have to focus so exclusively on his very good fastball and learning the change-up. Till now, they’ve focused on development and command, but this season the ‘kid-gloves’ should come off, and he’ll be using a more complete repertoire and increasing his innings. I expect his K-rate to increase and ERA to lower. The organization gave him back his two-seam fastball at the end of 2012, and when I saw it then I was impressed. The pitch is one he is confident in and allows him to aggressively attack the strike zone with good armside-run.

Stolmy Pimentel has just one year to jump from Double-A to the majors.

Stolmy Pimentel: “Can he consistently get AA hitters out?” (PP #NR)

The acquisition from the Joel Hanrahan trade with the Red Sox has seen his prospect status drop greatly in the past two seasons as he’s struggled in AA. Repeating the level for a third time and with only one option remaining, Pimentel will need to be effective early on in AA if he is to carve out a future role in the big leagues. After a disastrous 2011 in AA (9.12 ERA), Pimentel’s return to the level in 2012 showed some peripheral improvement—more ground ball outs, more strikeouts, and fewer walks—even though his ERA was still 4.59.

Pimentel has had a promising spring and the Pirates have clearly seen some potential in Pimentel that the Red Sox were not tapping. Part of his improvement last season was a better slider, and the continued development of that pitch since coming over is a good sign. To be effective, Pimentel will need to command the pitch along with his 90-96 MPH fastball. The change still needs some work, but if Pimentel can get hitters out in AA and make a move to AAA this year, he’ll position himself well in the organization moving forward.

Gift Ngeope: “Can he cut his strikeouts down?” (PP #22)

Baseball’s first international signee from South Africa, Ngoepe was understandably raw when acquired in 2008, lacking the baseball experience of many of his competitors. Slated for AA in 2013, it is now time for Ngoepe to show more polish. He is the best defensive infielder in the system and a fast runner, attributes that help his long-term future, but he has struggled at the plate, limiting his upside.

It is promising that the shortstop has shown flashes with the bat (10-23 to conclude his Arizona Fall League stint in 2012), but his big problem has been strikeouts, to the tune of a 28 percent K% in Bradenton in 2012 and a 33% rate in the AFL. A key difference for hitters in AA versus the lower levels is the ability of pitchers to command their secondary pitches, which could be a significant challenge for the switch-hitting Ngoepe. Although slick fielding and fast shortstops have some value at the big league level, the ability to get on base and impact the game with the bat is largely a point of separation for regulars and utility players.

Adalberto Santos: “Is his hit tool good enough to compensate for his other average tools?” (PP #27)

The crown jewel of position-players for scouting directors is the 5-tool talent—a player who hits for both average and power, can run, field his position well, and throw runners out. As we all know, these types of players are rare, and for many the hope is that one or two tools will be good enough to atone for deficiencies in other ones. This is the case with 2010 22nd round draft pick Adalberto Santos.

Santos doesn’t have a high-ceiling as a player because he lacks power (.093 ISO in AA 2012) and does not feature well at any one defensive position. What he can do is hit for average and get on base. A career .322 hitter with a .405 OBP, Santos has exceeded expectations with his hit tool, and generally, players who hit over .300 with a plus-.400 OBP have futures as everyday players in the majors. Since Santos has a lower ceiling in the other aspects of his game, he must continue to hit and get on base to secure his future with the organization. His .299/.413/.455 line in the AFL is a good sign, and so is the .340 average in AA in 2012 (clearly inflated by a .401 batting average on balls in play, but still a good sign). He’ll be repeating AA this year at age 25, so age is a factor, and to his credit, he’ll be adding third base to his cadre of positions played this season.

Casey Sadler: “Does he have a future as a starting pitcher?” (PP #32)

The 2010 25th round prep pitcher has largely been overshadowed by the over-slot prep arms taken by the Pirates in his draft year and prior, even though Sadler’s performance has merited attention. His pro career began in the bullpen, but he took over a starting role in Bradenton in 2012 when Gerrit Cole was promoted. In his new role, he showed the potential for three above-average pitches, posting a 3.93 ERA in 91.2 innings as a starter, inflated by struggles down the stretch when evaluators noticed some arm fatigue (he doubled his 2011 innings total in 2012).

To make it as a starter, Sadler will need three above-average pitches, solid command, and to keep the ball in the park. Based on 2012, he has the potential to do all three of these things with a back-end rotation upside, but the jump to AA will be a challenging one. His sinker sits 89-93, and gets a lot of ground ball outs. Consistency with his slider, which can be quite good, and development of his change-up are other keys that will determine if he’s a starter or reliever. Thus thus far his command has been good and he’s induced ground balls, off-setting an average strikeout rate.

Alex Dickerson: “Will he hit for power?” (PP #33)

This website has rated the 2011 3rd round draft pick lower in their prospect rankings than many other media outlets. Given his size, there are evaluators who expect Dickerson to add more power to his game, which is vital for his long-term potential since he defensively profiles as a first baseman, possibly a corner outfielder.

Dickerson was the Florida State League MVP in 2012, and he has shown flashes at the plate, including an OPS over .900 in June and July 2012, but his power has not come yet, at least to the extent he’ll need to remain a viable first base option. And although he’s big at 6’3”, 235 lbs., his body type isn’t ideal for a power hitter according to some. On the positive side, Dickerson’s hit tool is promising (.295 avg. in 2012), and he doesn’t feature problematic splits. However, Dickerson’s upside is in his power potential, which will need to increase for him to eventually be an MLB regular.

Matt Curry: “Will he hit for power?” (PP #34)

While Curry’s career path is different than Dickerson’s, he’s plagued with the same question—as a first baseman, can he hit for enough power to eventually play in the MLB? Curry returns to AA this season, where he’s already logged 700 at-bats, so it is a big year for his long-term future within the organization. Curry’s 2012 showed flashes of his upside, raking in the summer months (1.276 OPS in June, .868 OPS in July), but he struggled in the Arizona Fall League and finds himself back in AA looking for some improvement.

Raw power isn’t a big question for Curry (unlike Dickerson), but squaring up off-speed pitches is. This is not uncommon for power hitters, and what separates the best from the rest is the ability to make adjustments in AA and beyond to contend with good off-speed pitches. If Curry can make these adjustments in another tour of AA, the Pirates can hold out hope that he can have some impact at the big league level.

Mel Rojas, Jr.: “Does he have the polish it takes to succeed in AA?” (PP #37)

“Raw” and “polish” are antonyms in prospect language, the first pointing to players who have tools and potential that they have yet to harness into actual performance, and the second referring to the harnessing of those same tools on the field of play. Rojas, Jr., squarely falls into the “raw” category as he has yet to show the consistency and performance of a future MLB contributor, evident in his career .240/.307/.331 slash line and 22.9 K%. Nonetheless, I am wary to base my opinions solely on statistics, particularly for players prior to making it to AA, and Rojas, Jr.’s tools merit consideration.

The 2010 3rd round pick is a good runner and defensively profiles well at either centerfield or a corner spot, able to cover outfield turf and make strong throws. The questions for him come at the plate, where his anticipated power and hit tools have not come along as the Pirates would have hoped to this point. Rojas, Jr. shows periodic flashes of his pedigree and potential, only to fall into deep slumps. For example, in 2012 he followed a decent month of May (.306 BA) with a June batting average of .226 and sub-.600 OPS. Interestingly, in spite of these struggles, the Pirates have pushed him up to AA to start 2013 anyway, a sign that they still believe in Rojas, Jr.’s tools and upside. He turns 23 in May, and still has time to figure it out, but the aggressive promotion to AA will be a major test for the switch-hitting center fielder.

**Other Top 50 prospects in AA: SP Brandon Cumpton (#46) and RP Jeff Inman (#49)

Follow me on Twitter @John_Eshleman, where I’m happy to field questions and comments.

Pitchers

Gerrit Cole - The biggest help is obviously going to come from the top prospect in the system. It’s just a question of when Cole will arrive. He saw his control start to struggle at the end of last season, with a 13.2% BB/PA in his final month in Altoona. Despite those struggles, he was moved up to Indianapolis. There he made two starts, and was bounced early in the second outing. Cole is close to being ready for the majors, but the idea that he only needs to check in to Triple-A for a few weeks and get his extra year of control is wrong. He didn’t look ready for Triple-A when he was promoted last year, and you’d like to see him get a good amount of starts at the level to prove that he’s ready to move up. This is a guy with amazing stuff and a great assortment of pitches. But he still needs some work commanding some of those pitches, and mastering how to pitch. The Pirates need to make it so that when Cole is promoted, he’s up for good.

Kyle McPherson should be the first starter called up from Triple-A.

Kyle McPherson - There might not be an immediate need for Cole with McPherson in the Triple-A rotation. He looked good at times this Spring, and is one of the better pitching prospects in the upper levels. McPherson has a good three pitch mix and some of the best control in the system. Neal Huntington mentioned after he was demoted that they trusted McPherson if a spot opened up early in the season. If the Pirates do need a starter, he should be the first call, instead of Cole. His upside is a 200 inning per year number three starter.

Phil Irwin - The starting rotation in Pittsburgh will have a lot of options throughout the year. Aside from Cole and McPherson, the rotation could also see Jeff Karstens, Francisco Liriano, and Charlie Morton. So while Phil Irwin has the stuff to be a back of the rotation starter in the majors, he might not have a spot. Instead, he could help out from the bullpen later in the year. He’s got a good fastball, an effective sinker, and a curveball that is already a great strikeout pitch as a starter, and would work well in relief.

Vic Black - Black struggled with his control this Spring, but made an adjustment to shorten his glove pat after being sent to minor league camp. The early results were similar to the dominant numbers Black put up in Altoona in 2012. It’s easy for him to get away from his mechanics, so control may always be a problem. When he sticks to his mechanics the control is manageable and he’s un-hittable. He’ll need to work on his consistency with his mechanics. He has the arm to be a future closer, but could make it in the majors at some point this year as a middle reliever.

Bryan Morris - Morris should have been in the majors last season, well before his brief appearance in September. He also could be a better option than Jeanmar Gomez right now. The Pirates had an extra option on him this year, and opted to send him down. If he stays down past May 8th, they’ll get an extra year of control. He should be up in the majors not long after that, since he has very little to prove in the minors. Morris has the upside of a late inning reliever, but will be in lower pressure innings when he finally arrives.

Duke Welker - Just like Morris and Black, Welker has the upside of a late inning reliever. If he makes it to the majors this year, it will be in a lower pressure role. Welker would have been an option last September when rosters expanded, but he was recovering from an injury. If he doesn’t make it up before then, he should be in the majors when rosters expand this September.

Ryan Reid - The Pirates have a lot of bullpen options, but Reid pitched well in Spring Training, has always posted strong numbers in the minors, and could be an option for the Pirates as depth this year. Vin Mazzaro and Kris Johnson could also be bullpen depth if needed.

Position Players

Jerry Sands - The Pirates will go with Travis Snider and Jose Tabata in the outfield to start the year, although both guys could be on the bench if they continue to give Gaby Sanchez playing time. If Snider and Tabata do get a shot, and if they both struggle, the Pirates could turn to Sands. Another option could be…

Alex Presley - He’s coming off a down year in 2012, but Presley did have good numbers in Spring, and had decent numbers in the majors prior to 2012. Ultimately his upside is a fourth outfielder, but he could get a shot at proving himself to be more. Then again, the Pirates will be in trouble anyway if they get to Presley by going through Snider, Tabata, Sands, and Sanchez isn’t an everyday option. In that case, it won’t matter that Presley is only a fourth outfielder.

Felix Pie - When talking about Pie after he was sent down, Neal Huntington drew some similarities to Garrett Jones. Not so much in the type of player, since Jones and Pie are two totally different guys. It was more about the age, the strong Spring, and how Jones went on to break out after a strong season in Triple-A. If Pie gets off to a great start with Indianapolis, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Pirates give him a second half shot.

Jordy Mercer - In the past the Pirates have called up Mercer, only to have him sit on the bench. So it might be foolish to suggest he could get time in the majors this year. The Pirates stuck with Clint Barmes last year through horrible offense, and didn’t give Mercer much of a shot. The only way I see Mercer getting time is if Barmes goes down with an injury. Even then, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see John McDonald as the starter with Mercer as the backup who rarely plays. You could also write the same thing about Ivan De Jesus Jr.

Matt Hague/Jared Goedert - With all of the corner infield options in Pittsburgh, I don’t see either of these guys getting significant time this year. The only way it happens is if Pedro Alvarez goes down with an injury, or when rosters expand in September. Until then, they’ll be blocked on the bench by Josh Harrison or Brandon Inge.

Tony Sanchez - The Pirates signed Russell Martin to a two-year deal, which pretty much signaled that Sanchez won’t be up anytime soon. Martin has been pretty reliable, and Michael McKenry is a good backup, so there’s not much of an opportunity for Sanchez this year. If Martin does go down with an injury, that could open the door for Sanchez to get some time as a starter.

Lineup

C – Tony Sanchez

1B – Matt Hague

2B – Ivan De Jesus Jr.

SS – Jordy Mercer

3B – Jared Goedert

LF – Alex Presley

CF – Felix Pie

RF – Jerry Sands

DH – Oscar Tejeda

Last year the Indianapolis lineup was highlighted by Starling Marte. This year the club doesn’t have that type of impact player. The Indians do have a roster full of guys who could serve as depth in the majors this year.

Tony Sanchez is the top hitting prospect on the team, and has the best shot at being a starter down the line. He’s got strong defense behind the plate, with improved game calling, and excellent blocking skills. The problem with Sanchez the past few years has been his lack of hitting and lack of power. The power returned last year in Triple-A, when Sanchez hit for an AB/HR pace that would equal 19 homers in a full season. He didn’t hit for average, but he could have value as a starter with a power/defense combo and a good walk rate.

Jerry Sands was added in the Joel Hanrahan trade, and could be the top option if the Pirates are looking for a replacement in the outfield at some point this season. Sands has always hit for power in the minors, and hasn’t had much of a chance to prove himself in the majors. Alex Presley will be another option if the Pirates need an outfielder. He had a great Spring, but is coming off a down year in 2012. Sands has a chance as a starter, while Presley profiles more as a strong fourth outfielder. Felix Pie also had a good Spring, and Neal Huntington used a Garrett Jones comparison, referencing how Jones had a breakout season in 2009 after a good Spring and a good first half in Triple-A.

Jordy Mercer and Ivan De Jesus Jr. will take the middle infield spots, with Mercer getting more time at shortstop. Mercer has a chance to be an everyday starter at short. De Jesus profiles more as a backup, but there is a chance he could start. He used to be a strong defensive shortstop, but that was derailed when he suffered a broken leg a few years ago. If he can ever get back to that, he could emerge as a replacement option for Clint Barmes in 2014.

Matt Hague and Jared Goedert will handle the corner infield positions. Goedert has always hit for power in the minors, and could be a good bench option as the year goes on. Hague had a good Spring last year, and made the Opening Day roster. He couldn’t repeat his power numbers during the regular season last year, and will look to bounce back this Spring. Hague played a lot of third base in the last year, and looks more comfortable at the position this year than he did last year. However, he’ll be moving back to first base now that Clint Robinson has been lost on waivers to Toronto.

Bench

Brett Carroll, Darren Ford, Brian Jeroloman, Lucas May

Brett Carroll and Darren Ford will backup the outfield spots. Brian Jeroloman was added to be the backup catcher with Ali Solis recovering from an injury. Jeff Larish is the only one I’m not sure about. Alex Valdez would be an option, but he’s currently in extended Spring Training. Oscar Tejeda will also get some time on the bench, with some of these other guys taking over as the DH when that is available.

Gerrit Cole should be in the majors by mid season.

Starting Rotation

Gerrit Cole, Kyle McPherson, Phil Irwin, Andy Oliver, Kris Johnson

Last year Indianapolis went on to have the best record in the International League due to their pitching and defense. The defense should be strong again this year, and the pitching looks to be a strength as well. The top prospect in the system, Gerrit Cole, will start the season with the Indians. Cole has only made two appearances in Triple-A, and the second one was pretty bad. He should be in Pittsburgh by mid-season, but will need some time in Triple-A before he’s ready for the majors. A big part of that is because of his service time and super two status. The Pirates get an extra year of service time if they keep Cole down for a few weeks, and avoid him being a Super Two player if he stays down until June. There are also issues with Cole that need to be worked on. His control was a problem at the end of last season with Altoona, and he didn’t look ready for a promotion to Indianapolis at the end of the year. That shouldn’t be anything to worry about for the long run, but it’s something that will keep him down in the short-term.

Kyle McPherson just missed the major league rotation, losing out to Jeff Locke for the fifth starter role. He’s got a good three pitch mix, and some of the best control in the system. McPherson doesn’t have a lot of time above Double-A, being limited to three starts in Triple-A last year, and 10 appearances in the majors. Despite the lack of time, the Pirates could turn to him early in the season if they need a starter.

Phil Irwin also has a good mix of pitches. He was a 21st round pick in 2009, but has developed into a potential major league starter. Irwin throws a four seam fastball that works in the low 90s, and also throws a sinker. He uses both fastballs to get ahead in the count, and puts batters away with his curveball, which is one of the best in the system. Irwin made it to Indianapolis briefly last year, and was impressive with 28 strikeouts in 21 innings.

Andy Oliver is a former top prospect who has dealt with control problems the last few years. He looks to be another pitcher that the Detroit Tigers rushed through the system. Detroit moved him right to Double-A, and had him in the majors in his first pro season. After that the control problems started in Triple-A and in the majors. It will be interesting to see whether he can fix those problems now that he’s in a new system.

Kris Johnson was an upper level organizational starter last year, then went on to have a strong season in the Dominican Winter League. He’ll get the chance to prove this year whether that was legit, or just a small sample in an off-season league. At worst, he could serve as left-handed relief depth in the major league bullpen.

Bullpen

Vic Black, Brooks Brown, Vin Mazzaro, Bryan Morris, Ryan Reid, Duke Welker, Mike Zagurski

The key guys here are Vic Black, Bryan Morris, and Duke Welker. All three have good fastballs and good breaking pitches, and all three could be late inning relievers.

Black and Welker both have hit triple digits with their fastballs in the past, but struggle with control at times. They both throw sliders which lead to high strikeout rates. Black is the higher rated prospect, and more likely to be a closer option.

Morris was sent down after getting a fourth option year. He doesn’t have much to work on in Triple-A, as he looked pretty dominant in Indianapolis last year. His fastball/cutter combo makes him a strong late inning relief option. The command was off this Spring, but that wasn’t an issue last season. He should be promoted to the majors at some point this year, although the Pirates will get an extra year of control if they wait until after May 8th.

Lineup

C – Carlos Paulino

1B – Matt Curry

2B – Jarek Cunningham

SS – Gift Ngoepe

3B – Stefan Welch

LF – Alex Dickerson

CF – Mel Rojas

RF – Andrew Lambo

DH – Adalberto Santos

The Altoona lineup will be crazy this year, with players playing multiple positions all over the field. Perhaps the most stable positions are the ones up the middle. Carlos Paulino should get the bulk of the playing time behind the plate. Gift Ngoepe and Jarek Cunningham will play primarily shortstop and second base, respectively. Mel Rojas will handle center field. Outside of that, the corner positions will be a game of musical chairs.

At first base, Altoona could see Matt Curry, Stefan Welch, Alex Dickerson, and Andrew Lambo throughout the year. Welch will get most of his time at third base, also giving time to Adalberto Santos. Santos will be playing second base and left field. Dickerson and Curry will also get time in left, with Dickerson getting most of the time in the outfield between the two. And all of these guys will be options as designated hitters.

There are a lot of interesting hitting prospects here, but not really any standout hitting prospects. The consensus favorite seems to be Dickerson. He was highly rated coming out of the draft for his power, but didn’t show that power last year in the Florida State League. He’s been plagued by back problems the last few years, and seems to have found a solution this Spring by wearing orthotics. Dickerson wore them prior to college, and after he stopped wearing them the back issues started up. If that turns out to be the root of his back issues, and what was holding his power back, then Dickerson could be in line for a good season in Altoona.

Matt Curry, Adalberto Santos, and Andrew Lambo were all held back in Altoona due to the cuts from major league camp. Curry had a good season at the plate last year, although not a great season in terms of first basemen. You’d like to see more power and a higher OPS, especially this year in his second time around. Santos had a great half-season at the plate, hitting for a .340 average. He also had good results in the Arizona Fall League. He profiles more as a utility player, and will add another position this year by learning third base. He doesn’t have much defensive value, so the key will be getting him at-bats and seeing if he can continue his hot hitting. Lambo has been in Double-A for several years now, although he’s still young for the level. He had multiple hand injuries in 2012, but was hitting well this Spring.

Mel Rojas was a third round pick in 2010, and was considered a potential five tool talent. So far Rojas hasn’t shown consistency at the plate. There have been stretches where he’s shown his potential, absolutely crushing the ball with multi-hit games and long homers. Then there have been stretches where he’s gone hitless over a span of multiple games. The latter stretches have come more frequently than the former. Rojas was looking good this Spring, and the Pirates must still believe in him if they gave him the push to Double-A. He only had a .245/.303/.354 line in 497 at-bats in Bradenton last year. If he puts it all together in Altoona it wouldn’t be a total surprise. He’s shown his potential in each of the last two years, and has shown that he can hit. He just hasn’t shown any consistency.

The rest of the prospects in the lineup are guys with one or two tools. Gift Ngoepe is the best defensive infielder in the system, and might be the fastest in the system. Stefan Welch has some power in his bat. So does Jarek Cunningham, and his power comes at a position where you don’t usually expect power. Carlos Paulino is strong defensively, with possibly the best arm behind the plate in the system. If any of these guys make it to the majors, they’re looking at being bench players.

Bench

Charles Cutler, Drew Maggi, Justin Howard, Andy Vasquez

The bench will also see some rotation throughout the lineup. Charles Cutler returns for the second year to be the backup catcher. He will stay in one position for obvious reasons. Drew Maggi will spend time backing up the middle infield spots, although he played left field last year and could be an option there. Justin Howard is an option at first base, right field, and designated hitter. Andy Vasquez is athletic enough to play all over the field, including third base, center field, and shortstop.

Jameson Taillon will start off in Altoona this year.

Starting Rotation

Jameson Taillon, Stolmy Pimentel, Casey Sadler, Brandon Cumpton, Tyler Waldron

The highlight of the rotation at the start of the year will be Jameson Taillon. The top pitching prospect made the jump to Altoona at the end of last season, and looked great in three starts. That came at the end of a season where Taillon had some rocky starts down in Bradenton. The right-hander struggles at times leaving balls up in the zone, but overall he’s got the stuff to be a top of the rotation starter. If he performs the same way he did at the end of last season, he could see Indianapolis by the end of the year.

One guy I was impressed with this Spring was Stolmy Pimentel. The Pirates added Pimentel as part of the Joel Hanrahan trade. In the past they’ve added former top prospects who have lost some value, with hopes that those top prospects will bounce back. Watching Pimentel, there seems to be no reason why his value has dropped. He was pitching well, with a 90-96 MPH fastball and a slider that was working as a strikeout pitch. That slider could be the key to his season, and the reason why he looks better than his previous Double-A numbers. He switched to the pitch last year, and in the second half of the season he saw a big increase in strikeouts, and a decrease in his ERA. Pimentel will be a starter, and only has one option year remaining. He needs to have success quickly and move on to Indianapolis, since he’ll have to be in the majors next year.

The rest of the rotation profiles as guys who could have a future in the majors, although the most likely scenario for each guy is as a reliever. Casey Sadler is the one sleeper of the group who could make it as a starter. He throws his sinker in the 90-93 MPH range, getting a lot of quick ground balls. He pairs that with a hard breaking slider which gets strikeouts, and a changeup that is good enough to keep him as a starter. Brandon Cumpton and Tyler Waldron have both hit the mid-90s in the past as relievers, and both have more of an upside taking the relief pitching path in the long run. For now they’ll be worked as starters, getting as many innings and as much experience as possible.

Bullpen

Nate Baker, Tim Alderson, Jeff Inman, Kenn Kasparek, Jason Townsend, Ethan Hollingsworth, Luis Sanz

Jeff Inman is one of the highlights of the Altoona bullpen. He’s hit as high as 98 MPH in the past, and pairs the fastball with a good curveball. Inman has dealt with a lot of injuries in the past, and struggled in Altoona last year. That fastball/curve combo keeps him on the radar as a sleeper relief prospect.

Jason Townsend is also a good relief pitching prospect. He’s thrown in the mid-90s in the past, but works now in the lower 90s with good control and good movement on his fastball. He also throws a low 80s slider which he uses as an out pitch.

Tim Alderson is a former top prospect, and one of the guys who the Pirates acquired when he was on the decline. He’s shown some improvements since then, getting his fastball up to the 90-93 MPH range, and getting his curveball back to being an out pitch. At this point he might have a shot at being a sleeper relief prospect, but his future as a starter is pretty much done.

Nate Baker is a good left-handed relief prospect. He was drafted as a starter, and moved to the bullpen last year after some control problems. The numbers were much better out of the bullpen, and he’ll look to repeat that success this year in Altoona.

Season Previews

21 Questions to Answer - by James Santelli

Analyzing the Opening Day Roster - by Tim Williams

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013 Opening Day Payroll

Positional Previews

The Infield - by Tom Bragg

The Outfield - by Tom Bragg

The Bench - by Tom Bragg

The Rotation - by Tom Bragg

The Bullpen - by Tim Williams

**The payroll doesn’t account for in-season moves. In the last two years the Pirates have added about $8 M or more in-season. So the final payroll could easily be in the $70-75 M range.

**In the past I counted the bonus for one season. For example, Jason Grilli received a $500,000 bonus, so I would include that in year one of his deal, and have nothing in year two. Most sites (Cot’s, USA Today) spread the bonus out over the life of the contract. In the long run the numbers match up. But I decided to start doing that as well. The adjustment actually lowered the payroll a bit, since Russell Martin and Jason Grilli went from $2.5 M combined to $1.25 M combined. Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata had their bonuses added.

**Some payroll projections include the money that the Yankees are paying for A.J. Burnett and the Astros are paying for Wandy Rodriguez. USA Today is an example. I deduct those amounts, showing only what the Pirates are paying out of pocket. On the flip side, if the Pirates sent money to another team, I would include that.

**The Opening Day payroll doesn’t include projected bonuses. I add those throughout the year when they’re reached.

**I use the 40-man payroll, rather than the 25-man. MLB teams use 40-man numbers, and when you see the official numbers come out at the end of the year, they’re always 40-man numbers. You might think that the minor league salaries drive up the payroll (or at least that’s the common argument). The total of all the minor league guys on the 40-man is a little less than $1 M. As the season goes on, a lot of those minor leaguers will be called up, at which point they’ll be making major league salaries. I always pro-rate the major league salaries when players don’t play a full season.

**The payroll page is updated whenever a move is made. It also keeps track of option years, service time and contract situations. Keep the page bookmarked throughout the year, or find it under the “Rosters” tab at the top of the page. If you want to see long-term contract information, check out the Future Payroll page.