I am home from work due to an illness today, so clearly there has been just one thought running through my mind. “I should have used tRA* instead of tRA in that post I wrote a few weeks ago.” tRA* is a regressed version of tRA, making it a better indicator of true ability and future performance. So I figured I would post an update.

Here are the results from the previous post:

Maholm barely makes the cut as a number two starter. Duke, Morton, Ohlendorf and Karstens all rate as number threes. McCutchen comes in as an average number four pitcher, while Vasquez and Hart fell well down in the number five range.

Switching to tRA*, we find the following:

2009 starter tRA* by you.

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The Pirates’ rotation appears much deeper when we use tRA*. Maholm drops down to a number three and Karstens falls to a number four, but Vasquez and McCutchen jump up to number threes and Hart climbs up to a number four.

It would be great if the Pirates had an ace or two. However, having about eight potentially average starters available to plug into the rotation is valuable in itself.

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