2010 player projections

I am taking my first shot at some player projections this year. These are not meant to be very serious projections, just an exercise that I did for fun. My approach was created in a somewhat subjective manner, but I kept the process standardized for each player. Essentially, I took each player’s stats from 2007 – 2009, adjusted for BABIP, age and level, and weighted each season appropriately. Here are the projections.

 


AVG OBP SLG wOBA
C Ryan Doumit .286 .339 .465 .350
1B Jeff Clement .244 .331 .445 .339
2B Akinori Iwamura .261 .337 .369 .320
SS Ronny Cedeno .266 .321 .387 .315
3B Andy LaRoche .280 .375 .422 .357
LF Lastings Milledge .276 .339 .404 .333
CF Andrew McCutchen .294 .375 .449 .369
RF Garrett Jones .245 .304 .431 .321
BN Ryan Church .271 .341 .416 .335
BN Bobby Crosby .255 .316 .374 .308
BN Jason Jaramillo .259 .325 .358 .308
BN Ramon Vazquez .246 .335 .343 .310
BN Brandon Moss .253 .323 .419 .323
BN John Raynor .268 .352 .402 .345
BN Delwyn Young .254 .317 .384 .311

 

A couple of things look out of whack to me. Andy LaRoche’s projection seems to overrate his minor league walk rates a bit, leading to a high on-base percentage. I would expect Lastings Milledge to produce more power, as his 2009 numbers were likely dragged down by his finger injury. Finally, the projection is not kind to Garrett Jones at all. My gut tells me that he will be much better than this.

Again, don’t take these projections too seriously. They are simply some numbers to consider. I probably won’t bother doing any pitcher projections.

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