I am taking my first shot at some player projections this year. These are not meant to be very serious projections, just an exercise that I did for fun. My approach was created in a somewhat subjective manner, but I kept the process standardized for each player. Essentially, I took each player’s stats from 2007 – 2009, adjusted for BABIP, age and level, and weighted each season appropriately. Here are the projections.
A couple of things look out of whack to me. Andy LaRoche’s projection seems to overrate his minor league walk rates a bit, leading to a high on-base percentage. I would expect Lastings Milledge to produce more power, as his 2009 numbers were likely dragged down by his finger injury. Finally, the projection is not kind to Garrett Jones at all. My gut tells me that he will be much better than this.
Again, don’t take these projections too seriously. They are simply some numbers to consider. I probably won’t bother doing any pitcher projections.