Calculating trade value: Paul Maholm edition

The July 31st trade deadline is just a few days away, yet things are mostly quiet on the Pittsburgh front. After wheeling and dealing at the past two deadlines, general manager Neal Huntington has few veterans left to unload in 2010. That being said, there are still potential moves to consider and assets to examine. Let’s start by evaluating the trade value of Paul Maholm.

Maholm’s name has popped up in connection with the Dodgers. With little to no starting pitching at the major league level, the Bucs cannot be eager to deal the dependable and affordable Maholm. Of course, as shown by last year’s Nate McLouth trade, Huntington is not one to shy away from bold and unpopular moves if he likes the return. If the Pirates were to trade Maholm, what should they expect in return?

First, let’s look at Maholm’s salary commitment. The southpaw is due about $1.5 million for the final two months of the season and $5.75 million in 2011. He also has a $9.75 million team option for 2012 that includes a $750,000 buyout. Those are very reasonable obligations for the production that Maholm provides. Based on Maholm’s updated ZiPS projection, we can expect him to be worth somewhere between 3 and 3.5 wins in 2010. That means that any team acquiring him should expect about 2 wins of value over the final two months of the season. Accounting for a bit of regression, let’s assume that he will be worth 2.5 wins in 2011 and 2 wins in 2012.

With some help from Sky Kalkman’s handy trade value calculator, we can now determine Maholm’s worth on the market. At $4 million per win, and adding in the potential of being a Type B free agent, Maholm has a surplus value of $15.95 million through the remainder of his contract. That number drops to $15.55 million if the 2012 option is not exercised, so let’s use the mean of $15.75 million.

Option Exercised

Option Not Exercised

So what can that $15.75 million get the Pirates in the trade market? Using research done by Victor Wang, we can estimate the monetary value of specific prospects.

* in millions

The Dodgers’ top prospect is shortstop Dee Gordon, ranked as Baseball America’s 28th best overall hitting prospect before the season. That makes him worth $23.4 million, a pretty steep return for Maholm. But it is possible that Gordon’s down 2010 season, after skipping High-A, has lowered his stock a bit. Another consideration is that the Dodgers are battling financial issues. If the Pirates include some cash to cover Maholm’s contract, Gordon just might be obtainable.

Would you make that trade?

EDIT (7/28/2010, 4:30 PM): For what it’s worth Jayson Stark tweeted the following this afternoon: