The Pittsburgh Pirates and center fielder Andrew McCutchen are discussing a contract extension, according to Dejan Kovacevic. Kovacevic mentions that it wasn’t clear when the two sides started negotiating, and that neither side would comment on the negotiations.
Overall this shouldn’t be a huge issue, and shouldn’t really mean anything. However, the impatient desire to have the Pirates lock up one of their young players has elevated this situation to a higher status than it should have. Ever since McCutchen arrived in the majors, there have been calls to extend him in a long term deal, similar to what Evan Longoria and Ryan Braun received. I won’t claim that I wasn’t among those who would have liked to have seen this happen. However, a little perspective was needed.
First of all, the extensions signed by Longoria (a week in to his pro career) and Braun (a year in to his pro career) are extremely rare. Players usually sign extensions when they reach arbitration, and sometimes the year before. A lot of hype went this off-season to the extensions signed by Jay Bruce and Carlos Gonzalez. Bruce was eligible for arbitration, while Gonzalez has 2+ years of service time, which is the equivalent to McCutchen in the upcoming off-season.
There’s a reason you don’t see players signing long term deals earlier than this point. The club wants to see the player for more than one season, to know what they’re committing guaranteed money to. The player wants to balance the risk/reward between a potential injury and a chance to increase his value. Take Gonzalez, as an example. Imagine how much less he would have made had he signed before his breakout year in 2010.
Of course, paranoia kicked in, and the thought was “if the Pirates haven’t signed McCutchen by now, and we’re not hearing about any talks, that means there are no talks, and he will either leave as a free agent, or be traded”. Now we have word of the talks, although this quote from Dejan will likely bring up the next batch of complaints about the extension topic:
The most likely type of extension would be one that carries McCutchen through next season, plus his three arbitration years. He still would be eligible for free agency in 2016, based on his current status.
It’s not clear what Dejan means here. An extension that buys out only the control years would be most likely in that it would be the easiest to agree upon. It’s not clear whether he’s referring to this, or referencing these negotiations specifically.
If it was an extension that bought out nothing but controlled years, it would be pretty pointless, and a repeat of the Jason Bay extension, which did nothing for the team. There’s the whole financial security aspect, but the value of financial security is nothing compared to the value of having McCutchen for even just one extra year of control.
I’ve said this before, but an extension really is meaningless. The Pirates could extend McCutchen today, and he could still be gone by 2016 for numerous reasons. Maybe Starling Marte emerges to replace him in center field. Maybe the Pirates draft a top talent in the first round who will eventually take his place. Maybe someone in the lower levels emerges as a top outfield prospect, also emerging as a replacement candidate. Maybe McCutchen doesn’t live up to his potential. The Pirates signed Nate McLouth to an extension, then traded him a few months later, in a deal that has worked out very well for the team so far.
No extension will guarantee that McCutchen will be with the team for X amount of years. The biggest value of an extension at this stage in a player’s career is the trade off, with the team getting extra years of control, and the player getting financial security. Again, an extension doesn’t guarantee that a player will be around for a certain amount of time, but it does give the team the option of keeping the player around. Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker, and Jose Tabata are all under control through the 2016 season. At the least, it would be nice to have McCutchen under control through the same season.
Extending McCutchen only through his arbitration years is pointless. It just buys some financial certainty, although that’s not necessarily a good thing. It’s only good if McCutchen lives up to his potential, at which point, the Pirates get a value. However, if McCutchen goes year to year, there’s not really a scenario where the Pirates couldn’t afford him through his arbitration years. The only way that could happen is if he became one of the top players in the game, putting him in a Prince Fielder situation, where the team knew he was leaving once free agency arrived.
If the Pirates sign McCutchen to an extension, it needs to include free agent years. It doesn’t matter whether those are guaranteed years, or option years. The important thing is buying out control of those years, and potentially extending the time McCutchen will be in Pittsburgh. That’s the approach to take with any player, although it’s especially true with McCutchen, as he’s currently set to hit free agency right in the middle of his prime. It would be nice if the Pirates had him for most of his prime years, rather than letting him go right when he’s at his best.
Tim started Pirates Prospects in 2009 from his home in Virginia, which was 40 minutes from where Pedro Alvarez made his pro debut in Lynchburg. That year, the Lynchburg Hillcats won the Carolina League championship, and Pirates Prospects was born from Tim's reporting along the way. The site has grown over the years to include many more writers, and Tim has gone on to become a credentialed MLB reporter, producing Pirates Prospects each year, and will publish his 11th Prospect Guide this offseason. He has also served as the Pittsburgh Pirates correspondent for Baseball America since 2019. Behind the scenes, Tim is an avid music lover, and most of the money he gets paid to run this site goes to vinyl records.
I want to aplogize for the less than lucid posts earlier.18 hour days combined with Nyquil can be rough.
AM has the potential of being a true star on the field. The Pirates have a few other areas that need addressed. If you lock up AM it needs to include at least two FA years. We also need a strong arm that can add 15 wins a year. If you add it up ( 15 from Correia, 15 from Morton.15 from another arm 15 from the Pen) that is 60 wins. The your #4 & #5 arms can pick up the other 20+ wins to be in the race each year. Without the FA years you are just tying up needed salary to inprove the rotation. I would also like to see a middle infield combo that can turn some DP. Not sure that Walker is the answer long term at second..can he turn the double paly?
Dont get me wrong I see great value in Andrew. But what would it take to get a 15 game winner on the mound? We may have to exchange , nad Ihate the thought, Andrew for such an arm. I dont see how we can acquire a strong arm without a trade.
It may be premature to lock Cutch for a long term deal. His true value could be in snagging a great arm from another team because of his skill and lower contract value
The only way I can see that scenario being team beneficial is if he’s taking a huge discount. Say 4 yrs and a total of 16-18mill. Other than that at the very least you need to get 1 year of FA
A-cutch extension how much would that be worth is the question?- 6 years, 70 mil- 5 million signing bonus. 2012- 2 mil, 2013- 5mil, 2014 8 mil, 2015 12 mil, 2016 club option 14 mil, 2017 club option 19 mil? or 5 mil buyout.
This is WAY too high for his arbitration years. $14 million in his last year of arbitration in 2016? What’s the point? This is to give the Pirates cost certainty and a guarantee for him.
2012 – 3 million
2013 – 4.5 million
2014 – 6 million
2015 – 7.5 million
2016 – 10 million (last arby year)
2017 – 13 million
2018 – 15 million option
6 years, 44 million, with one year FA guaranteed for us, and an option for a 2nd.
His last arb year is 2015, first fa year is 2016 according to cots contract. A-cutch agent wont take that amount the lowest is 52 mil in which jay bruce got the high end is 70.