I've talked a lot this year about how Kevin Correia has been lucky. After tonight's start, the right-hander has a .248 BABIP and a 74.8% strand rate. Both are lucky, and both are due for a regression. Correia has a 4.43 ERA, although his xFIP is 4.97.

Correia has been lucky, and is closer to a 5.00 ERA pitcher than he is a 4.00 ERA pitcher. But in a way, he's also been unlucky this year, considering the Pirates' situation.

The Pirates have a great rotation this year. It's to the point where two bad starts can be enough for fans to call for a rotation change. The 3.79 ERA by the rotation this year ranks eighth in the majors. Their 3.94 xFIP ranks 12th, and suggests that the ERA is somewhat legit, especially when you consider that Correia drags that number down.

Correia is what he is. In ...

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