Both PECOTA and ZiPS project Andrew McCutchen as the most valuable player the rest of 2013. (Photo by: David Hague)

Five weeks ago, the Pirates' chances of reaching the playoffs were at 40 percent. Since then, Pittsburgh has gone 22-13 and improved their average odds to almost 80 percent. That's good police work, Lou.

If the second Wild Card did not exist, the team's odds would be about 50 percent. That's what happens when baseball's three most-winning teams are all in the same division.

All right, reset. What do the standings look like now?

National League Central

St. Louis: 47-29 (---)
Pittsburgh: 46-30 (1.0 game back)
Cincinnati: 45-32 (2.5 GB)
Chicago: 31-43 (15.0 GB)
Milwaukee: 31-43 (15.0 GB)

National League Wild Card

Pittsburgh: 46-30 (+1.5)
Cincinnati: 45-...

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