The Chances For Each Player Being Available When the Pirates Draft

With all the recent mock drafts coming out and industry experts putting their inside information together, we have a pretty good idea how the top of the first round will play out. We know a list of 15 players who keep getting mentioned for the top 14 picks, two of which will be selections by the Pittsburgh Pirates this upcoming Thursday. There are also a couple wildcards that could sneak into this group.

What we will do here is take five of the mock drafts from the top experts out there and give the probability that a certain player will be available when the Pirates make their first selection with the ninth pick, then when they select five spots later at 14th overall. We are going off the latest mock drafts from Jim Callis at Baseball America, Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo for MLB.com, John Sickels’ Minor League Ball(done by Matt Garrioch) and Kiley McDaniel for Scout.com.

The formula is simple. We take the number of times a player is available at each pick in a mock draft, then divide that by the number of mock drafts (5). If a player is available at number nine in three of the five mock drafts, he’s got a 60% probability. The first percentage listed below will be the probability that players will be there when the Pirates select ninth. The second number next to their name will be the percentages for the 14th pick. If it’s zero for the first number, then obviously the second would be the same, so no need to add it.

No Chance of Falling to the Pirates

Jonathan Gray 0%

Mark Appel 0%

Kris Bryant 0%

Kohl Stewart 0%

Colin Moran 0%

Braden Shipley 0%

Going by all the mock drafts, there are six players you can cross off your wish list right away. It’s always possible that one of these guys could slip on draft day, but don’t bet on it. That leads us to the players the Pirates have a chance of being able to take with their first pick only.

Reese McGuire is the popular choice for the ninth pick in the draft.
Reese McGuire is the popular choice for the ninth pick in the draft.

9th Pick Only

Clint Frazier 60%

Austin Meadows 60%

Reese McGuire 100%

That group of three includes the favorite for most experts (McGuire) along with two high upside prep outfielders from Georgia. If you pass on one, both will likely be gone before the next pick. McGuire is stopping at number nine in most drafts who have him going to the Pirates, but it’s unlikely that he’d slip to 14th overall if they passed him up.

Finally, we have the group of players who at least one of the experts thinks they will be available when the 14th pick comes up. Here is where we introduce the second number for that 14th pick.

Available at 9 and 14

Trey Ball 60%/40%

DJ Peterson 60%/40%

Ryne Stanek 80%/20%

Hunter Renfroe 80%/40%

JP Crawford 100%/20%

Dominic Smith 100%/60%

Aaron Judge 100%/80%

Nick Ciuffo 100%/100%

Saying all that, four of the drafts have the Pirates taking Reese McGuire with the #9 pick, while Matt Garrioch believes that Ryne Stanek will be too good to pass up at that spot and he would add another top arm to the Pirates system. The #14 pick is split between Hunter Renfroe and DJ Peterson getting two votes apiece. Garrioch is again the dissenter among the group, but his pick makes sense based on what everyone else has been saying. He thinks the Pirates could take prep catcher Nick Ciuffo, who has a bat that profiles as good or better than McGuire, but the defense lags behind a little. They would still get their quality prep catcher, but instead of a solid corner bat, they take a college arm with plenty of upside.

Two interesting names of note missing from this list. All five mock drafts have Stanford’s Austin Wilson and Sean Manaea from Indiana State going lower than the 14th picks. When the season started, that seemed unlikely, but both players were done in by injuries.

The only other names mentioned as possibilities recently for the Pirates’ second pick are Notre Dame third baseman Eric Jagielo and Samford outfielder Phillip Ervin. Jagielo’s average placement in the mock drafts is 26th overall, while Ervin only made four of the lists, but his average works out to 24.5 on those lists.

John started working at Pirates Prospects in 2009, but his connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates started exactly 100 years earlier when Dots Miller debuted for the 1909 World Series champions. John was born in Kearny, NJ, two blocks from the house where Dots Miller grew up. From that hometown hero connection came a love of Pirates history, as well as the sport of baseball.

When he didn't make it as a lefty pitcher with an 80+ MPH fastball and a slider that needed work, John turned to covering the game, eventually focusing in on the prospects side, where his interest was pushed by the big league team being below .500 for so long. John has covered the minors in some form since the 2002 season, and leads the draft and international coverage on Pirates Prospects. He writes daily on Pittsburgh Baseball History, when he's not covering the entire system daily throughout the entire year on Pirates Prospects.

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canthitwhatucantsee

Bostick will not be there for Pirates at #119 . Will be gone by pick #85 from what I’m hearing.

rburgh

Sorry about the length of this post. It’s John Sickels’ mock organizational draft, which was held today. Each team had a volunteer GM (I ran the D’Backs) and the overall draft looks reasonably believable.

We went 4 rounds deep, and the Bucs’ GM selected Reese McGuire, Chris Anderson, Connor Jones, Ryon Healy, and Akeem Bostick. Bostick and Jones are high-ceiling prep pitchers, Anderson a fairly safe college pitcher, McGuire you know, and Healy is a big prep 1B bat from Oregon.

My first pick for the D’backs was Ryne Stanek, I regard taking Anderson ahead of him as a major error. Stanek has come up big in the postseason, and has some inconsistent mechanical issues that can surely be fixed.

In any case, here’s the whole draft, as a bunch of non-industry people made it happen.

1. Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
2. Chicago Cubs: Jonathan Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma
3. Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego
4. Minnesota Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X HS, Houston, Texas
5. Cleveland Indians: Colin Moran, 3B, University of North Carolina
6. Miami Marlins: Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville HS, Loganville, Georgia
7. Boston Red Sox Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson HS, Loganville, Georgia
8. Kansas City Royals: Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University
9. Pittsburgh Pirates (for Unsigned Mark Appel): Reese McGuire, C, Kentwood HS, Covington, WA
10. Toronto Blue Jays: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada
11. New York Mets: Dominic Smith, 1B, Serra HS, Gardena, California
12. Seattle Mariners: D.J. Peterson, 3B, University of New Mexico
13. San Diego Padres: Trey Ball, LHP, New Castle HS, New Castle, Indiana
14. Pittsburgh Pirates: Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University
15. Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas
16. Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford, Lakewood HS, Lakewood, California
17. Chicago White Sox: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University
18. Los Angeles Dodgers: Hunter Harvey, RHP, Bandys HS, Catawba, North Carolina
19. St. Louis Cardinals: Phil Bickford, RHP, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, California
20. Detroit Tigers: Tim Anderson, SS, East Central Mississippi Community College
21. Tampa Bay Rays: Nick Ciuffo, C, Lexington HS, Lexington, South Carolina
22. Baltimore Orioles: Ian Clarkin, LHP, Madison HS, San Diego, California
23. Texas Rangers: Cody Reed, LHP, Northwest Mississippi Junior College
24. Oakland Athletics: Phil Erwin, OF, Samford University
25. San Francisco Giants: Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Joseph Regional HS, Montvale, New Jersey
26. New York Yankees: Jonathan Denney, C, Yukon HS, Yukon, Oklahoma
27. Cincinnati Reds: Aaron Judge, OF, Fresno State University
28. St. Louis Cardinals (for Kyle Lohse): Alex Gonzalez, RHP, Oral Roberts University
29. Tampa Bay Rays (for B.J. Upton): Hunter Dozier, SS, Stephen F. Austin State University
30. Texas Rangers (for Josh Hamilton): Travis Demerritte, 3B, Winder-Barrow HS, Winder, Georgia
31. Atlanta Braves (for Michael Bourn): Marco Gonzalez, LHP, Gonzaga
32. New York Yankees (for Nick Swisher): Riley Unroe, SS, Desert Ridge HS, Mesa, Arizona
33. New York Yankees (for Rafael Soriano): Aaron Blair, RHP, Marshall University

Competitive Balance Round A

34. Kansas City Royals: Eric Jagielo, 3B, Notre Dame
35. Miami Marlins (from the Pirates): Jonathan Crawford, RHP, University of Florida
36. Arizona Diamondbacks: Billy McKinney, OF, Plano West HS, Plano, Texas
37. Baltimore Orioles: Hunter Green, LHP, Warren East HS, Bowling Green, Kentucky
38. Cincinnati Reds: Oscar Mercado, SS, Gaither HS, Tampa, Florida
39. Detroit Tigers (from the Marlins): Alex Balog, RHP, University of San Francisco

Second Round

40. Houston Astros: Tom Windle, LHP, University of Minnesota
41. Chicago Cubs: Chris Okey, C, Eustis HS, Eustis, Florida
42. Colorado Rockies: Bobby Wahl, RHP, University of Mississippi
43. Minnesota Twins: Tyler O’Neill, C-INF, Garibaldi SS, Maple Ridge, British Columbia
44. Miami Marlins: Trey Williams, 3B, College of the Canyons
45. Boston Red Sox: Jason Hursh, RHP, Oklahoma State University
46. Kansas City Royals: Ryan Eades, RHP, Louisiana State University
47. Toronto Blue Jays: Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford University
48. New York Mets: Andrew Thurman, RHP, UC Irvine
49. Seattle Mariners: Dustin Driver, RHP, Wenatchee HS, Wenatchee, Washington
50. San Diego Padres: Devin Williams, RHP, Hazelwood West HS, Hazelwood, Missouri
51. Pittsburgh Pirates: Connor Jones, RHP, Great Bridge HS, Chesapeake, Virginia
52. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt Krook, LHP, St. Ignatius HS, San Francisco, California
53. Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Williams, OF, Terrebonne HS, Houma, Louisiana
54. Milwaukee Brewers: Blake Taylor, LHP, Dana Point HS, Dana Point, California
55. Chicago White Sox: Chad Pinder, 3B, Virginia Tech
56. Los Angeles Dodgers: Cavan Biggio, 2B, St. Thomas HS, Houston, Texas
57. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Boldt, OF, Red Wing HS, Red Wing, Minnesota
58. Detroit Tigers: Dustin Peterson, 3B, Gilbert HS, Gilbert, Arizona
59. Los Angeles Angels: Kyle Serrano, RHP, Farragut HS, Farragut, Tennessee
60. Tampa Bay Rays: Kent Emanuel, LHP, University of North Carolina
61. Baltimore Orioles: Cord Sandberg, OF, Manatee HS, Bradenton, Florida
62. Texas Rangers: Jake Brentz, LHP, Parkway South HS, Manchester, Missouri
63. Oakland Athletics: Garrett Williams, LHP, Calvary Baptist HS, Shreveport, Louisiana
64. San Francisco Giants: Trey Masek, RHP, Texas Tech
65. Atlanta Braves: Josh Hart, OF, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Georgia
66. New York Yankees: A.J. Puk, LHP, Washington HS, Cedar Rapids, Iowa
67. Cincinnati Reds: Teddy Stankiewicz, RHP, Seminole State Junior College (Oklahoma)
68. Washington Nationals: Corey Knebel, RHP, University of Texas

Competitive Balance Round B

69. San Diego Padres: Ryan McMahon, 3B, Mater Dei HS, Santa Ana, California
70. Colorado Rockies: Kevin Ziomek, LHP, Vanderbilt
71. Oakland Athletics: Trevor Williams, RHP, Arizona State University
72. Milwaukee Brewers: Mike Lorenzen, OF, Cal State Fullerton
73. Miami Marlins (from the Tigers): Jan Hernandez, INF, Beltran Academy, Puerto Rico

Third Round

74. Houston Astros: Dillon Overton, LHP, University of Oklahoma
75. Chicago Cubs: Casey Shane, RHP, Centennial HS, Burleson, Texas
76. New York Mets (T. Stankiewicz – unsigned): Ivan Wilson, OF, Ruston HS, Ruston, Louisiana
77. Colorado Rockies: Rowdy Tellez, 1B, Elk Grove HS, California
78. Minnesota Twins: Stuart Turner, C, University of Mississippi
79. Cleveland Indians: Andrew Mitchell, RHP, Texas Christian University
80. Miami Marlins: Harrison Cooney, RHP, Florida Gulf Coast University
81. Boston Red Sox: Trey Michalczewski, 3B, Jenks HS, Jenks, Oklahoma
82. Kansas City Royals: Dylan Covey, RHP, University of San Diego
83. Toronto Blue Jays: Jordan Paroubeck, OF, Serra HS, San Mateo, California
84. New York Mets: A.J. Vanegas, RHP, Stanford University
85. Seattle Mariners: Zack Collins, C-1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Florida
86. San Diego Padres: Carlos Salazar, RHP, Kerman HS, Kerman, California
87. Pittsburgh Pirates: Ryon Healy, 1B, University of Oregon
88. Arizona Diamondbacks: Buck Farmer, RHP, Georgia Tech
89. Philadelphia Phillies: Dom Nunez, C, Elk Grove HS, Elk Grove, California
90. Milwaukee Brewers: Michael O’Neill, OF, University of Michigan
91. Chicago White Sox: Tyler Skulina, RHP, Kent State University
92. Los Angeles Dodgers: Andrew Knapp, C, University of California
93. St. Louis Cardinals: Myles Smith, RHP, Lee University
94. Detroit Tigers: Colby Suggs, RHP, University of Arkansas
95. Los Angeles Angels: Nick Vander Tuig, RHP, UCLA
96. Philadelphia Phillies (A. Rash – unsigned): Michael Shawaryn, RHP, Gloucester Catholic HS, New Jersey
97. Tampa Bay Rays: Brett Morales, RHP, King HS, Tampa, Florida
98. Baltimore Orioles: Jared King, OF, Kansas State University
99. Texas Rangers: Andrew Church, RHP, Basic HS, Henderson, Nevada
100. Oakland Athletics: Tucker Neuhaus, SS, Wharton HS, Tampa, Florida
101. San Francisco Giants: Mason Smith, OF, Rocky Mountain HS, Meridian, Idaho
102. Atlanta Braves: Rob Zastryzny, LHP, University of Missouri
103. New York Yankees: Terry McClure, OF, Riverwood Inernational HS, Sandy Springs, Georgia
104. Cincinnati Reds: Sam Moll, LHP, University of Memphis
105. Washington Nationals: Clinton Hollon,RHP, Woodford County HS, Versailles, KY
106. Oakland A’s (K. Twomey – unsigned): Dace Kime, RHP, University of Louisville

Fourth Round

107) Houston Astros: Garrett Hampson, SS, Reno HS, Reno, Nevada
108) Chicago Cubs: Kyle Crockett, LHP, University of Virginia
109) Colorado Rockies: Brandon Bixler, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast University
110) Minnesota Twins: Matt Boyd, LHP, Oregon State University
111) Cleveland Indians: William Abreu, OF, Mater Academy, Hialeah, Florida
112) Miami Marlins: Brian Navaretto, C, Florida HS
113) Boston Red Sox: Jacob Hannemann, OF, Brigham Young University
114) Kansas City Royals: Drew Ward, 3B/1B, Leedey HS, Leedey, Oklahoma
115) Toronto Blue Jays: Johneshwy Fargas, OF, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
116) New York Mets: Victor Caratini, INF, Miami Dade JC
117) Seattle Mariners: Kevin Franklin, INF, Gahr HS, Cerritos, California
118) San Diego Padres: JaCoby Jones, 2B, Louisiana State University
119) Pittsburgh Pirates: Akeem Bostick, RHP, West Florence HS, South Carolina
120) Arizona Diamondbacks: Chris Rivera, SS, California HS
121) Philadelphia Phillies: Adam Plutko, RHP, UCLA
122) Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Arroyo, SS, Hernando HS, Brooksville, Florida
123) Chicago White Sox: Cody Bellinger, 1B, Hamilton HS, Arizona
124) Los Angeles Dodgers: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Trinity College School, Port Hope, Ontario
125) St. Louis Cardinals: Stephen Tarpley, LHP, Scottsdale Community College
126) Detroit Tigers: Stephen Gonsalves, LHP, Cathedral Catholic HS, San Diego
127) Los Angeles Angels: Nic Pivetta, RHP, New Mexico Junior College
128) Tampa Bay Rays: Andy McGuire, 3B, Madison HS, Oakton, Virginia
129) Baltimore Orioles: Zane Evans, C-RHP, Georgia Tech
130) Texas Rangers: Jeremy Martinez, C, Mater Dei HS, Fountain Valley, California
131) Oakland Athletics: Cody Dickson, LHP, Sam Houston State University
132) San Francisco Giants: Daniel Palka, OF, Georgia Tech
133) Atlanta Braves: Chandler Eden, RHP, Yuba City HS CA
134) New York Yankees: Drew Dosch, 3B, Youngstown State University
135) Cincinnati Reds: Matthew McPhearson, OF, Riverdale Baptist HS, Columbia, Maryland
136) Washington Nationals: Tyler Danish, RHP, Durant HS, Plant City, Florida

Matt Beam

high 30’s I believe

nikknice

What number pick did we trade to get gabby Sanchez?

Matt Beam

this is getting so incredibly old, zero runs scored through 4 again (every pitcher seems to be on vs the Buccos right now, huh?)

This team has to do something to turn this offense around and it can’t be just 1 thing as Presley has provided something tonight, problem is nobody else has, no way to compete with the Reds and Cards if the offense continues to struggle this year, plus the umpire completely blows the call at 1st and the Reds are up

Matt Beam

Ball is the only pitcher who will likely be available that I would consider. The minor’s now have very good pitching depth but is lacking a true LH stud, there are a few LHP sleepers but the big studs are RH. PNC park is paradise for LHP.

Based purely on the Atlanta Braves ability/success over the last 10-12 years on plucking studs GA HS kids in the 1st round of the draft, I want Frazier if he makes it past the Red Sox and is available at #9 .

McGuire needs to project to be a 2 way catcher in the mold of Molina (STL) for me to pick him over Frazier.

At #14 , I’d love to see Dominic Smith or JP Crawford over somebody like DJ Peterson.

Todd Shevchik

I am a lifelong Bucco fan and live in Lexington, SC. Nick Ciuffo (pronounced Shoe- foe) was the catcher for our Lexington High School AAAA state championship team. He had committed to play for the University of South Carolina but I feel will take the money and go pro. I have watched him play many times and read the scouting reports on him by experts. The kid is a stud ball player . He can hit a baseball. Good plate discipline. He also can play defense. I would rate him a plus on both offense and defense. From what I have read about the other catchers rated above him they are either better hitters or better defensively. I would rather take the whole package with Ciuffo, especially if they can grab someone with pick 9 that really like.

AvoidLloyd95

I’m hoping we don’t take the Catcher. We have 2 decent ones in the low levels and Sanchez in AAA. I want the guys with most potential. I’m hoping for Frazier and Stanek. but Renfroe and Peterson seem nice too.

Richard Ya'Zhynka

I’ll take two college hitters, please.

hoosierIUdaddy

And I will take two High School hitters thank you very much. I will take BPA every time. I got tired of projecting who the Pirates will take. I am starting to project who the successful teams in MLB will take and the one guy I keep thinking about that will be outstanding is Billy McKinney OF. He is going to be better than David Dahl who many were high on. McKinney makes great contact and has a sweet swing, as does Austin Meadows. I was on board with Dominic Smith but after watching him more intently he has BUST written all over him. He is too inconsistent and MLB pitchers will eat him up unless he vastly improves. I don’t like the college guys like Renfroe or Peterson bc they have to be trending upwards year after year and then they could end up being a Ryan Braun. They already reached their max and it’s a question if that max is good enough to be a big leaguer. Do you see that in Renfroe? On Renfroe, “A .242 career hitter with 65 starts (61 in the outfield) in 75 games played the last two seasons”. Is that a guy the Yankees would take if they were at #14 ? They might not take him til round 3 or 4 if he was still there. That’s a guy the Pirates would take and who mock draft ppl mock to the Pirates bc we are the Pirates. Peterson is better in that regard and why he is getting a lot of attention. However, when I watch him he just doesn’t do it for me but he has hit .400 the past two years, so he could end up being a .270 hitter with 15-20 HRs each year. Not good enough for my liking. As for catchers, it is a very deep HS class and many people have varying opinion on who the best guy is. That means there is no best guy who is worthy of taking at #9 overall and when you already have a guy that has turned it around in Tony Sanchez you wait until your 2nd rd pick and take the best HS catcher to add to the mix, if that’s the route you want to go. If there is a Buster Posey or someone of that caliber at #9 you take him but that is not the case this year. As for LHP, same thing applies. There is no true best guy and Manaea has really dropped off which is good bc I never liked him anyway. Garrett Williams and Jake Brentz are two HS guys that I really like maybe for our 2nd or 3rd rd pick. I like Brentz more bc he has a live arm (up to 97) but he is a little wild but that can be fixed bc he is NOT Stetson Allie wild and he is still a young kid. I think Brentz could be a Buchholz type with proper development. If it was up to me the prospects I like that would be available for our picks would be (Meadows, Frazier, Phil Bickford RHP, Billy McKinney OF, Hunter Green OF). I would definitely be leaning to left handed hitters bc of the short porch in right and the fact going forward we have some solid pitchers but no so many hitters. Meadows could be a Joey Votto and play him at 1st so don’t get caught up in the fact we have a pretty good core of OF guys coming up and at the major league level. BPA! BPA! BPA!

hoosierIUdaddy

Hunter Green LHP … oops!

Spazaru

I agree. I like Renfroe and Peterson from that list. The college pitching is worrisome anyway because the bats are so weak now. On the other hand, if a player can hit with the new bats, he should be able to hit with wood, no problem. If we have to draft a high schooler, I love Frazier’s story, but who knows what you really end up with?

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