If you strongly favor statistical analysis, then your stance on RISP numbers is that it is not a predictive value. So while the St. Louis Cardinals have an amazing .330 average with runners in scoring position, going forward they should be expected to be closer to their .269 average overall.

It's not a surprise that previews from people who think this way are picking the Pirates over the Cardinals in the NLDS.

Rany Jazayerli has a great preview on Grantland, and predicts that the Pirates will win in four games. Jazayerli sums up the impact of the RISP numbers, and the Pirates defensive shifts, here:

The Cardinals' offense is also highly dependent on balls in play to succeed. The Cardinals were second in the NL in singles and first in doubles, but were just 13th in home runs. The P...

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