More Free Agency Rankings and Salary Predictions

If you’ve missed the previous free agent rankings and predictions, check out these articles:

**Keith Law Releases His Top 50 Free Agents

**MLBTR Projects Burnett and Byrd Will Return to the Pirates

Today there are three more lists that came out, with some predictions on where players will go, and some salary predictions. Below are the newest lists.

Jeff Passan, Yahoo Sports

Passan’s list is a basic ranking, but it includes 200 players, rather than stopping at 50 like most lists. Here is a rundown of where the Pirates free agents rank.

16. A.J. Burnett

19. Marlon Byrd

24. Justin Morneau

93. John Buck

118. Kyle Farnsworth

119. Clint Barmes

164. James McDonald (became a FA before the season ended)

165. Jeff Karstens

R.J. Anderson, Baseball Prospectus

The rankings from BP include predictions, although just like the MLBTR predictions, they’re more for fun and probably not accurate. The one that probably is accurate is the prediction that Burnett will stay in Pittsburgh. Here are the notable rankings, along with the prediction of where the player will go.

6. A.J. Burnett – Pittsburgh

10. Kendrys Morales – Seattle

12. Carlos Beltran – St. Louis

18. Curtis Granderson – Pittsburgh

19. Stephen Drew – Boston

25. Tim Hudson – Atlanta

26. Josh Johnson – Houston

28. Jhonny Peralta – Miami

31. Corey Hart – Milwaukee

33. James Loney – Pittsburgh

36. Marlon Byrd – San Francisco

Again, the predictions are just for fun, so don’t read too much into them. I really don’t see Granderson being signed by the Pirates, since he will cost a draft pick, is coming off a down year where he missed time due to injuries. So he’s either going to cost a lot for uncertain future production, or he’s going to sign a short deal to re-establish value.

A.J. Burnett Pirates
A.J. Burnett is projected to get $12-13 M on a one-year deal. (Photo Credit: David Hague)

Jon Heyman, CBS Sports

I like Heyman’s list because it includes predictions on what the players could earn. There are three predictions per player: Heyman, an unbiased GM, and an unbiased agent. Here are the notable players and their predictions.

12. Carlos Beltran – Agent: 2 years, $26M. GM: 2 years, $37.5M. Heyman: 2 years, $40M

14. Kendrys Morales – Agent: 3 years, $36M.GM: 1 year, $14.1M (takes qualifying offer). Heyman: 3 years, $39M

15. Stephen Drew – Agent: 3 years, $37M. GM: 2 years, $25M. Heyman: 3 years, $38M

24. James Loney – Agent: 2 years, $14M. GM: 2 years, $15M. Heyman: 2 years, $20M

27. Marlon Byrd – Agent: 2 years, $17M. GM: 2 years, $15M. Heyman: 2 years, $18M

29. Jhonny Peralta – Agent: 2 years, $21M. GM: 2 years, $16M. Heyman: 2 years, $18M

37. Corey Hart – Agent: 1 year, $6M. GM: 1 year, $8M. Heyman:2 years, $14M

38. A.J. Burnett – Agent: 1 year, $13M. GM: 1 year, $12M. Heyman: 1 year, $12M

40. Josh Johnson – Agent: 1 year, $11M. GM: 1 year, $10M Heyman: 1 year, $12M

48. Tim Hudson – Agent: 1 year, $10M. GM: 1 year, $7M. Heyman: 1 year, $9M

The Burnett predictions are interesting. Right now a lot of people are worrying that the Pirates will lose Burnett and get no compensation because they didn’t offer him $14.1 M through a qualifying offer. However, all three predictions have Burnett costing $12-13 M on a one year deal, which is lower than the qualifying offer. MLBTR also predicted a one year, $12 M deal. The only person who has predicted higher than the qualifying offer was Keith Law, although his was less of a prediction and more of an assessment of what Burnett is worth.

Tim started Pirates Prospects in 2009 from his home in Virginia, which was 40 minutes from where Pedro Alvarez made his pro debut in Lynchburg. That year, the Lynchburg Hillcats won the Carolina League championship, and Pirates Prospects was born from Tim's reporting along the way. The site has grown over the years to include many more writers, and Tim has gone on to become a credentialed MLB reporter, producing Pirates Prospects each year, and will publish his 11th Prospect Guide this offseason. He has also served as the Pittsburgh Pirates correspondent for Baseball America since 2019. Behind the scenes, Tim is an avid music lover, and most of the money he gets paid to run this site goes to vinyl records.

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Boy that Josh Johnson deal sure is expensive. I bet it goes lower than that. I could see him hang around for a month or two before signing. And I wouldn’t hate if the Pirates gave him $7-8.

Granderson prediction for the pirates would be great if we didn’t have Polanco. We won’t be giving 3 years to a RF right now.


What about Rafael Furcal?


Wish list in the real world: James Loney, Tim Hudson, Jhonny Peralta. Don’t particularly care if they get Marlon Byrd back or AJ Burnett if they can get those three. I’d also be fine with Josh Johnson over Tim Hudson, but I just feel Hudson is an easier sign and will cost less. Loney and Peralta i’d go after them HEAVILY, Peralta especially due to his position flexibility and offensive pop. It provides a good backup for Alvarez, and allows Mercer about 3 starts a week mostly against lefties or anytime peralta, alvarez, or walker needs a random day off. Loney will keep defense at first positive, and provide a contact hitter who isn’t an auto K vs. lefties. If I can’t get Loney, I offer arbitration to Jones and bring the platoon back, while folding in Lambo to the RF and 1B mix until Polanco is ready.


Where did Heyman find an unbiased GM, and who could it possibly be?

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