Dan Szymborski, the creator of ZiPS, took a look at the cost of the qualifying offer to free agents like Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew. Szymborski looked at the values of draft picks based on his studies on the topic in the past, and came up with the numbers that losing a first round pick to sign a player would be the equivalent of losing about $23 M in future value.
What this means for guys like Morales and Drew is that declining the qualifying offers has basically killed their markets. Szymborski uses ZiPS projections to say what players would be worth on the open market, without compensation. He comes up with a two year, $20 M deal for Stephen Drew, and a two year, $24 M deal for Kendrys Morales. However, when you add in compensation, Drew would only be worth a two year, $3 M deal...
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