If you look at Jeff Locke's numbers from the 2013 season, you won't find much wrong on the surface. He put up a 3.52 ERA in 166.1 innings last year, with a 4.03 FIP that suggests he over-performed his season numbers a bit, but no more than Charlie Morton (3.26/3.60), Wandy Rodriguez (3.59/4.42), or Jeanmar Gomez (3.35/3.85).

But the season numbers don't tell the story with Locke. During the first half of the season, he had a 2.15 ERA in 109 innings. During the second half, he had a 6.12 ERA in 57.1 innings. I didn't think he was as good as the first half numbers, but I also didn't think he was as bad as the second half numbers.

Locke's BABIP was .228 in the first half, and .365 in the second half. Typically starting pitchers are around .290-.300. His strand rate was 83.3% in the firs...

To continue reading the rest of this article, subscribe to Pirates Prospects. Subscribers get access to every article on the site, along with all of our exclusive live coverage of the Pirates' minor league system, all for a very low monthly or yearly rate.

If you're already a member, you can log in below. If you think you're receiving this message in error, please e-mail tim@piratesprospects.com.