Last week I wrote about how the Pittsburgh Pirates needed a big week against the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals in order to remain in the playoff hunt. The Pirates responded well, taking 4 of 6 against those teams, and winning both series. That pulled them closer to the playoffs, but according to the latest projections, there is still work to be done.
The playoff odds and projections come from the top three projection sites: Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and ClayDavenport.com. Here are the latest projections.
Baseball Prospectus: 84.0 wins, 34.3% chance to make playoffs
The Baseball Prospectus odds went up about 13 percentage points, and saw the Pirates adding an extra win. They have the Pirates as the seventh best contender in the NL, making BP the only projection system to rank the Pirates below the Braves.
FanGraphs: 84.5 wins, 41.0% chance to make playoffs
FanGraphs saw a big increase, going up almost 20 percentage points, and seeing a one win increase. They had the Pirates ahead of the Braves, but almost 20 percentage points behind the Giants.
Clay Davenport: 84.4 wins, 41.6% chance to make playoffs
Clay Davenport was at 41.6%, maintaining their run of being higher on the Pirates than the other systems. Like FanGraphs, they had the Pirates ahead of the Braves, but well behind the Giants.
The Competition
Here are the rankings of the NL contenders. To get “contender” status, a team must have a 15% or better to make the playoffs in all three projection systems.
| Team | Odds | W | L | |
|
1 |
Dodgers |
99.2 |
92 |
70 |
|
2 |
Nationals |
98.9 |
92 |
70 |
|
3 |
Brewers |
83.1 |
88 |
74 |
|
4 |
Cardinals |
75.5 |
87 |
75 |
|
5 |
Giants |
63.6 |
86 |
76 |
|
6 |
Pirates |
39.0 |
84 |
78 |
|
7 |
Braves |
37.3 |
84 |
78 |
The Pirates saw a jump of about 15% on average, and saw their projected win total increase by one win. They’re still on the outside of the playoffs, sitting about two wins behind the Giants.
This last week was huge for the Pirates, as it allowed them to make up some ground on the Brewers and Cardinals. They still need to make up more ground, and that could happen in the next few weeks. They have three games this weekend against the struggling Reds, and then three more games against the Cardinals. Another good stretch, along with another series win against the Cardinals, could put them back in the playoff race.
Beyond that, the Pirates have 13 games against the Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox, before taking on the Brewers for three games and the Braves for four games. The Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox have been struggling this year, and that would be a great opportunity for the Pirates to pad the win column. The playoffs aren’t out of the question. The Pirates basically control their own destiny, with games remaining against the Cardinals, Brewers, Braves, and a lot of struggling teams.
