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To recap the countdown so far:
We continue the countdown with the number 15 prospect, Trey Supak.
15. Trey Supak, RHP
The Pirates took two over-slot prep pitchers in the second round, selecting Mitch Keller with their actual second round pick, and Trey Supak with their supplemental draft pick a few spots later. Both pitchers received a $1 M signing bonus, although there was a clear difference between the two.
Supak possesses a lot of the traits that make Keller a top prospect. He’s a tall, projectable right-hander who can already hit 94 MPH, with the potential for two average off-speed pitches. Supak has more projection in his frame than Keller, but falls behind Keller at the moment with his present velocity.
While Supak can hit 94 MPH, he mostly works in the 88-92 range. He sits 90-91 early in the game, but loses his velocity as the game goes on. As he fills out his frame and adds strength, he could maintain his velocity in the later innings. Until then, his upside is going to involve a bit more projection than Keller.
Supak’s fastball command was inconsistent in his pro debut, leading to poor results. He had issues leaving his fastball up in the zone at times, which led to him getting hit hard. He can locate the ball down in the zone at times, but needs to learn how to do that on a more consistent basis.
The off-speed stuff could also show improvements. His current projection limits his upside to a number three or four starter. If he can develop an above-average off-speed pitch, and fill out his frame to get more consistent velocity, then he could improve his upside, becoming a solid middle of the rotation starter or better.
The Pirates have sent their prep pitchers to Bristol or returned them to the GCL in the last few years, taking a more conservative approach than a few years ago when it would be automatic that their top prep pitchers would go to the New York-Penn League during their first full season. Supak’s bonus suggests that he could get that aggressive push to Morgantown, but his current stuff would probably be better off with a more conservative push to Bristol. That could change if he sees a lot of strong developments during extended Spring Training, especially with the quality of his changeup and the command of his fastball.