The Pittsburgh Pirates signed Josh Harrison to an extension today, buying out control of three free agent years, while also guaranteeing his contract through the 2018 season. This comes after Harrison put up a 5.0 WAR in 2014, which earned him the starting third base role this year.
I don’t think anyone expects Harrison to repeat that WAR going forward. A lot of that was fueled by his offense, with a .315/.347/.490 line in 550 plate appearances. The average was fueled by a .353 BABIP, which is much higher than his career .314 number. That number is more in line with what Harrison had in the minors. He saw an increase in power, which might have been due to the fact that he had a career best line drive percentage, along with lowering his ground ball rates and raising his fly ball rates from 2013 to 2014.
It’s possible that Harrison could still put up good numbers going forward, but expecting last year as the norm is probably a bad idea. That said, what would Harrison need to justify his deal?
The current deal works out to $27.3 M guaranteed over four years. That includes his $1 M signing bonus, and the $1 M buyout. That averages out to just under $7 M per year. A win on the open market has been worth at least $6 M in recent years. That means Harrison needs to put up a 1.15 WAR each year to justify his contract.
That shouldn’t be a hard thing for Harrison to do. He was excellent defensively at third base last year, with a 7.0 UZR/150. The defense alone should give him the bulk of the value needed to justify this deal. If he winds up somewhere in the middle of his 2014 offensive performance, and his 2011-13 numbers, then he will be worth the yearly price. In terms of his yearly contributions, he’d need to be worth a maximum of 1.7 WAR in 2018 to justify the $10 M payment.
If Harrison settles in at a 2.0 WAR going forward, then he will more than justify this deal. He would even be worth the option years in 2019 and 2020 with that production. And with his strong defense at third base, it should be easy for him to reach those levels, even if the bat does regress going forward.
