Today I finished putting together the 2016 40-man payroll page, which will be updated throughout the off-season, and in to the regular season. Bookmark that link, as I’ll be updating the chart after every move throughout the off-season. The chart provides an estimate of the year-end 2016 payroll, which will definitely change throughout the off-season.
Right now the estimate is made up of three things. First we have the guaranteed salaries. Next are the projected arbitration increases. Finally there are the projected roster decisions. I didn’t include projected free agents, since that’s unpredictable. I mostly stuck with players who were out of options, or who didn’t play a huge role at the end of the season. There are some players who I have projected on the active roster who may end up off the 40-man roster at some point this off-season, but they were league minimum guys, so it didn’t make much of a difference. The non-tender focus was on arbitration eligible guys, since that had a bigger impact on payroll.
I projected a 25-man roster when making this payroll chart, although a few spots will change. The Pirates need a starting pitcher to replace A.J. Burnett. They need a left-handed reliever to replace Antonio Bastardo. Right now I’ve got league minimum guys in that role, meaning the payroll will go up when they bring in replacements. The payroll will also go down if they non-tender or trade some key players, which I’ll get into shortly.
One key disclaimer here is that I don’t know what the Pirates are receiving from the Dodgers for Michael Morse. I’ve seen a few figures floating around, but nothing that looks official, or makes sense (as those figures would have the Dodgers taking on salary to swap Morse for Jose Tabata). I’ve got that figure listed as a question mark, and it will drive the payroll down a bit.
The Pirates are currently projected for a $104,727,333 payroll in 2016. A lot can change with that figure. As an example, last year they had a projected $65,452,500 when I first made the chart around this time of year. The end of year payroll estimate was $101,914,526. They have been trending upward at the start of each year, and if that trend continues, then they’ll be able to start the year over $100 M as their projection suggests. However, they might find better ways to spend that money this off-season, and I’ll break down some of the key decisions below.
Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez had a great offensive year in 2012, which helped make him a 2.2 WAR player that season, and finally made Pirates fans comfortable with him for a short period of time. His offense in 2015 was almost identical to the 2012 season. However, his defense at first base was so horrible that he ended up being a replacement level player. The Pirates can’t afford to pay him $8.1 M and get that same value, and he showed no signs of improvement. They’ve got Josh Bell waiting in the wings, who has defensive issues of his own for now, and won’t be ready on Opening Day. As I mentioned above, they’ve got Michael Morse, and they’re receiving an unknown amount for him. If it was my call, I’d trade or non-tender Alvarez, then give Morse the job and hope he bounces back to 2014 form in the first half.
Neil Walker
Neil Walker isn’t a bad second base option. The Pirates could do better, or they could try to get similar production for a cheaper price. Walker is due $10.7 M through his arbitration estimate, and would be a free agent following the 2016 season. It’s unlikely that he would return beyond that, as the Pirates have Alen Hanson and Max Moroff in the upper levels of the minors. There aren’t many great options on the free agent market, and the best options will cost about the same as Walker and provide the same value. Unless there’s an option on the trade market that would be cheaper and provide the same or better production, then it would make sense to keep Walker around.
The Rotation
As noted above, the Pirates will need to add a starter to replace A.J. Burnett. They also have Charlie Morton making $8 M and Jeff Locke making $3.5 M. Both players are worth that amount based on their production, despite complaints about either pitcher. But if the Pirates opt to find another starting pitcher, in addition to Burnett’s replacement, then they could try and deal one of their two existing starters to clear some salary. I’d be surprised if that happens, especially with Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings. I think finding a depth option for Triple-A, like Clayton Richard or Vance Worley in previous years, is more likely.
The Bullpen
The Pirates have two of the best relievers in baseball in Mark Melancon and Tony Watson. Unfortunately, that combination is projected to cost about $15 M this year, with Melancon’s projected $10 M covering the bulk of that amount. The Pirates can afford a $100 M payroll or more, but it’s not a smart idea to commit roughly 10% of that amount on a reliever. That’s mostly because they’ve got a great track record of finding cheap relievers, and they’ve got the perfect replacement for Melancon in Watson. The Pirates traded Joel Hanrahan in a similar situation, in a move where they got Melancon. That was a different team, and it wasn’t coming off three straight playoff performances, so this could end up producing a different result. However, you could argue that they faced just as much pressure to contend the off-season after the 2012 collapse as this off-season, and probably have a bit more trust to work with, meaning they could very well have a repeat situation of trading their closer and going with a cheaper replacement.
In-Season Additions
The difference between the Opening Day payroll and the final payroll is always big. There’s no way to project all of the in-season moves, whether that comes in the form of trades, waiver claims, or the constant promotions and demotions from Triple-A. In previous years, the in-season figure has been anywhere from $6-11 M. Last season they added a bit over $10 M during the year, with the majority of that being trade deadline additions. The estimated number represents the Opening Day projections. You could probably add $5-10 M to that figure on Opening Day to guess what the final figure would be.
Accuracy
The estimated payroll is exactly that, an estimate. It doesn’t include every bonus, incentive, or exact salary figures for the league minimum guys. In the past, the estimate has been pretty accurate. The estimate in previous years has had a margin of error of $1.36 M on average.
