Gerrit Cole is an interesting topic to discuss in Pittsburgh, especially when it comes to how good he is. Today, Buster Olney gave his list of the ten best starting pitchers in the game. Cole ranked ninth overall on the list. That goes against the idea that Cole isn’t an ace, which is something I’ve seen repeated all year, especially after the Wild Card game loss.
With Cole being recognized as one of the best in the game, I thought this was the perfect opportunity to review his career, some of the expectations on him, and how he got to this point. In short, I wanted to get to the truth about Gerrit Cole, because at this point it either seems common to forget the road he took to get to this point, or easy to suggest that he hasn’t reached a high mark yet.
We’ll begin by looking back at when he was first drafted.
He Was Never a Guarantee
The number one overall pick is pretty thankless, while being a no-win situation at the same time. You’re expected to get the pick right, and when you do, it’s chalked up to being easy. Gerrit Cole wasn’t an easy pick.
At the time of the 2011 draft, Cole was seen as the top prospect by some outlets, but there was a big debate between Trevor Bauer, Dylan Bundy, and Cole. In fact, heading into the 2012 season, Cole was ranked as the 12th best prospect in baseball by Baseball America. Bauer was ranked 10th, and Bundy 9th. MLB.com had Bauer-Bundy-Cole ranked 9-10-11 respectively. Baseball Prospectus had Cole (9) ahead of Bauer (11), but behind Bundy (6).
The following season, Cole jumped ahead of Bauer in every ranking, although it was still close in some rankings. BA had them separated by seven spots. MLB.com had them separated by eight spots. Baseball Prospectus had the biggest gap, with Cole ranked third and Bauer ranked 24th. Meanwhile, BA ranked Bundy (2) ahead of Cole (7), and MLB.com did the same (2 vs 9). BP once again was the highest on Cole, ranking him third and Bundy fourth.
I don’t want to write their careers off just yet, but looking at the results shows that it hasn’t even been close between these three pitchers. Cole was one of the best pitchers in baseball last year, and is regarded as one of the best in the game going forward. Bundy’s growing injury history has limited him to just 168.2 innings in pro ball over four seasons. Bauer has a career 4.50 ERA and a 4.2 BB/9 ratio in 362.1 innings in the majors.
Cole is chalked up to being an easy pick and someone the Pirates don’t get credit for developing, but one quick look at Bundy and Bauer — especially a look at how they compared to Cole the first two years — shows that Cole was never a guarantee.
He Might Prove the Pirates Right in Their Methods of Developing Pitchers
I talked about this in the comments last week, and wanted to bring it up here for further discussion. One interesting thing about the decision in 2011 was that there were reports saying that Bauer and Bundy didn’t want the Pirates drafting them, because the Pirates restrict pitchers from long toss. This was untrue at the time, which you knew if you read my reports not just after the draft, but before the draft and the issue even took place.
Long toss is a term that covers a pitcher throwing 120 feet or more, but it’s commonly associated with going beyond 120 feet. In this case, it was meant to be the latter, as Bauer and Bundy had extreme distances in their throwing programs. That last phrase is key: throwing programs.
Each pitcher in the Pirates’ system has their own program. Watch Spring Training and you’ll see each pitcher move out to 120 feet as they throw long toss each day. Some pitchers will move out to greater distances and some will remain at 120. It all depends on their individual throwing program.
The Pirates don’t restrict everyone from going beyond 120. Cole was up near 300 feet at one point. They just don’t allow a pitcher to expand too far if the extra distance could alter his mechanics in a negative way. The extreme 300 feet distances get a pitcher in the habit of throwing up in the air, and often they can take that motion to the mound and have everything up in the zone.
As I mentioned last week, I believe this has negatively impacted Bundy and Bauer. I don’t want to say that the extreme workouts and throwing programs have led to the injuries with Bundy, although I will point out that the idea at draft time was that the extreme workouts would have the opposite effect. I will say that I believe Bauer’s problems are due to his throwing program, which has led him to be flat and up in the zone way too often, with an inability to be down in the zone.
Here is a look at Bauer’s zone profile from Brooks Baseball.
Notice that he’s close to 4.5% or greater in three sections above the zone, and four of the six sections in the middle or top half of the zone. You really see the difference when looking at Cole, who had similar problems coming out of college, but really worked to get the ball down in the zone, and now has much more success with the approach.
Gerrit Cole primarily works middle down, and really pounds the bottom of the zone, while rarely being up above the zone like Bauer. They both hit that bottom corner outside of the zone, but that’s mostly their breaking stuff. Here is a look at Bauer’s four seam fastball:
Once again, he’s way up in the zone, and the low stuff pretty much disappears.
At the time, the Pirates were seen as wrong for possibly trying to change Bauer and/or Bundy. Of course, this was 2011, and the feeling at the time was that the Pirates would be best getting out of the way and just letting good things magically happen to them, because that was their only chance of getting a good prospect.
Looking back now, this could be pointed to as a big sign that the Pirates know what they’re doing with developing pitchers, especially when you pair this with the results from Cole, Bauer, and Bundy so far. At the very least, it makes you question the idea that a young player should be unleashed on his own, with total resistance towards coaching or teams suggesting a different approach.
The Wild Card Game Doesn’t Determine His Upside
The one thing that has baffled me lately is the idea that Gerrit Cole isn’t an ace. Granted, that’s a very, very subjective term. So let’s drop that term and go with something a bit simpler: is Gerrit Cole one of the best pitchers in baseball?
I say yes. The stats last year said yes. Buster Olney said yes today. But there are Pirates fans who said no, and that’s primarily due to the Wild Card game.
Cole had a bad game. He didn’t do well against Dexter Fowler and Kyle Schwarber and the Pirates lost. In the process, it was forgotten that two years earlier, when Cole pitched so well in his first playoff game that the Pirates picked him over A.J. Burnett in Game 5 against the Cardinals.
People also forgot about David Price getting lit up in the playoffs, or Johnny Cueto getting destroyed in the 2013 Wild Card game, or Clayton Kershaw struggling in the playoffs in previous years.
That’s where the subjectivity of the “ace” term comes into play. It ignores the variance and randomness that can take place in one game. Aces get beat all the time during the season and no one thinks anything of it. Get beat in the playoffs? Suddenly that term ignores everything and focuses on that one individual start.
Make no mistake about it: Cole is one of the best starters in the game right now.
He’s Not Done Yet
Cole just finished his age 24 season, and put up a 5.4 WAR. There’s one number that is very important there, and it’s not the WAR. He had his breakout year this year, and started looking like he was reaching his upside. To think that he’s going to be one and done, or that he’s got no room for improvement, is to ignore the age. He’s certainly not guaranteed anything beyond what we saw in 2015. But there’s a reason why he’s considered one of the best pitchers in baseball right now, and it’s not because we’ve already seen the best he has to offer.
**Pirates Sign Outfielder Danny Ortiz and RHP Curtis Partch. In my minor league previews, I suggested that the Pirates could sign a minor league free agent outfielder to start in Indianapolis. I’m not sure if Danny Ortiz will be that guy (the guy in previous years wasn’t always the first to sign), but he should be a contender. He would likely take a bench role if he doesn’t get a starting job. That’s where most of the minor league free agents will end up, as the Pirates have plenty of prospects for the starting jobs.
**Pirates Purchase Independent League Pitcher. From this weekend, the Pirates signed a pitcher out of indy ball, Patrick Johnson. No guarantee that he even makes a roster. Last year they signed Matt Nevarez and Chris Peacock, and both were released before the end of Spring Training. Then again, John Holdzkom is still around. I’d expect Johnson to end up with a bullpen role in the upper levels, most likely Altoona.
**Buster Olney Names Gerrit Cole as Ninth Best Starting Pitcher. Olney’s rating of Cole.
**Two Open 40-Man Spots With Two Top Pirates Prospects Unprotected. Breaking down the possible reason why the Pirates left Clay Holmes and Barrett Barnes unprotected.
**Pirates Prospects Who Are Eligible For the 2015 Rule 5 Draft. Here are the players they left unprotected on Friday.
**Pirates Protect Glasnow, Bell, Ramirez and Moroff From the Rule 5 Draft. And here are the guys they protected, with a breakdown of each player.
**Stats Don’t Tell the Whole Story For Pirates’ Players in the AFL. A look at what was going on with each player behind the numbers in the AFL.
**Winter Leagues: Big Games From Jose Osuna and Elias Diaz. John Dreker has the weekend report from the winter leagues, with good results from Osuna and Diaz.
