For the past few years, I’ve done a pre-season projection of the Pirates using ZiPS player projections and my read on the depth chart and playing time. This projection always comes in much higher than other projections of the team record, but always end up the same or lower than the actual team record.

This year’s ZiPS projections came out in December, well before the Pirates’ roster was set. Since that point, they’ve added Ryan Vogelsong to the rotation, added Neftali Feliz to the bullpen, added David Freese to the bench and to start before Jung-ho Kang returns, removed Ryan Vogelsong from the rotation, and made a bunch of other smaller moves. I did an article before all of those moves, but with all of the changes, and with the season starting tomorrow, I wanted to take another look at the projections.

Before we begin, I will point out again that the disclaimer in ZiPS is that you shouldn’t total all the WAR on the depth charts to get a team WAR. I’ve had that mentioned in the past in regards to this article, but I don’t think that applies. I believe that disclaimer is for all of the projections on the ZiPS page, which would result in a WAR that would be impossible to obtain, due to the unrealistic amount of playing time projected for each team. The approach I’m taking is much more calculated and more accurate. It’s also an approach that you could use with any projection system, since the main focus is figuring out playing time, then applying a projection to that playing time. There’s also the disclaimer to add that this is just for entertainment.

Now, here are the projections.

BASELINE

Generally the accepted baseline for a team of replacement level players is anywhere from 45-50 wins. The average usually falls around 48. So we’ll start with that figure before we look at any individual players.

WAR: +48.0 (48.0)

CATCHER

This hasn’t changed from December. ZiPS had Francisco Cervelli at a 2.5 WAR over 326 plate appearances. I didn’t want to adjust that up to reflect his 2015 playing time, since that’s banking too much on him being healthy all year once again. So this projection comes with room for improvement, and the chance to be a 4+ WAR player if he stays healthy again.

Chris Stewart has an 0.5 WAR in 201 plate appearances. Last year the Pirates had 668 plate appearances behind the plate. The current projections leave them 141 shy. Giving those to Elias Diaz, and prorating his playing time and 0.6 WAR gives us another 0.2 WAR for the catcher total. Once again, this projection goes up if Cervelli stays healthy.

WAR: +3.2 (51.2)

FIRST BASE

The original article was written before John Jaso was signed, which definitely changes things (I originally had Michael Morse as the placeholder everyday first baseman). Jaso is projected for 269 plate appearances and an 0.8 WAR. I think he could get close to 500 plate appearances this year. First base will keep him healthier than catching, and the Pirates gave Pedro Alvarez 491 plate appearances last year in the same role, with horrible defense. That makes his total a 1.5 WAR.

This still leaves 181 plate appearances remaining, which would go to the right-handed options. David Freese will be the primary guy at the end of April, after Jung-ho Kang returns. It’s really difficult dividing this all up between Freese, Morse, and Jason Rogers. Freese will also get playing time at third, and the other two could get time elsewhere. I’m going to give two-thirds of this time to Freese (120 plate appearances) and the remainder to Morse (which doesn’t amount to anything, since he’s projected for an 0.1 WAR over half a season).

Freese is projected for a 1.3 WAR over 487 plate appearances, so his prorated portion here is an 0.3 WAR. That brings the total at first base to 1.8.

I do want to point out that ZiPS projects Josh Bell lower than Jaso and Freese, so if Bell comes up mid-season, the projections go down. Likewise, ZiPS has Jason Rogers higher than Morse, so if they somehow go with Rogers, then the projections go up slightly.

WAR: +1.8 (53.0)

SECOND BASE

Josh Harrison will be the regular second baseman. He’s getting a 2.2 WAR over 480 plate appearances, which is slightly higher than the 449 plate appearances he received last year. I’m giving him that full projection.

As for the remaining 235 plate appearances, the infield bench spots will be tricky, so I’m going to save them for shortstop.

WAR: +2.2 (55.2)

SHORTSTOP/INFIELD BENCH

Jordy Mercer is projected for 472 plate appearances and a 1.1 WAR. This is another area where I’m taking the projection with no adjustments.

This also leaves 253 plate appearances, which combined with the second base leftovers gives us 488 plate appearances to work with. Then it’s just a question of which prospects from Indianapolis get the time, along with factoring in Sean Rodriguez and possibly Cole Figueroa.

Rodriguez had 240 plate appearances last year, and is projected for 250 by ZiPS, and an 0.1 WAR. I’m going with that projection, leaving 238 PAs remaining.

The rest of this is going to be a bit sloppy. I’m going to divide the plate appearances in half, giving half to Alen Hanson, and the other half to the remaining infield options.

Hanson is projected at a 1.7 WAR over 547 plate appearances. The prorated portion gives him an 0.4 WAR.

Guys like Figueroa, Max Moroff, and Adam Frazier are all around an 0.3 WAR over 450-500 plate appearances. This gives 0.1 WAR for the remaining playing time.

I’m going this route with the infielders for two reasons. One is that it’s impossible to predict how much playing time each person would get, or who would actually get the call. Two, Hanson’s projection is way up there, and this seems like a fair method to limit his value, rather than just giving him all of the remaining time.

Overall, there would be 1.7 WAR from shortstop and the infield bench.

WAR: +1.7 (56.9)

THIRD BASE

Jung-ho Kang will be the regular here when he’s healthy. ZiPS has him with a 2.3 WAR over 497 plate appearances. I think that’s fair, since the expected return is mid-to-late April. Last year he wasn’t a starter at the beginning of the year, and managed 467 plate appearances. So I could see him getting the full amount. The WAR is lower than his 2015 totals, but I think it’s smart to go conservative here with him coming off a major injury.

There are 158 plate appearances remaining, and I’m giving all of those to David Freese. This gets him around 300 plate appearances (when counting first base time). The extra time here adds another 0.4 WAR.

 

WAR: +2.7 (59.6)

LEFT FIELD

Starling Marte is projected for 620 plate appearances and a 3.8 WAR. The Pirates had 723 plate appearances last year in left field. The extra playing time in the outfield will be addressed in the right field position.

Marte’s projection in ZiPS tends to be lower than his actual results. That’s not the case when you compare this year’s projection and his results last year (3.6 WAR). But if you look at the previous two years (4.6 WAR average), then there is room for improvement here.

WAR: +3.8 (63.4)

CENTER FIELD

Andrew McCutchen is projected for 651 plate appearances and a 5.6 WAR.  This is another area with possible bonus potential. Last year was McCutchen’s worst year since 2011, and he had a 5.8 WAR. He had a 6.8 WAR in 2012 and 2014, and an 8.2 WAR in 2013. The 5.6 projection looks like the floor for McCutchen. You don’t want to project an MVP season like 2013, but it’s very possible you could see an extra 1.0 WAR or more here.

Once again, extra playing time will be factored into the right field mix.

WAR: +5.6 (69.0)

RIGHT FIELD/BENCH

Gregory Polanco is projected for 627 plate appearances and a 2.2 WAR. Polanco actually had a 2.3 WAR last year, and has some breakout potential, so this could be a huge area of improvement.

The outfield had 2,186 plate appearances last year, and the current trio is 288 plate appearances shy. There are also 315 plate appearances remaining from pinch-hitting and the DH. That gives 603 plate appearances remaining off the bench.

I’ve already factored in Sean Rodriguez and Chris Stewart from the bench. Matt Joyce and Michael Morse still need playing time, and neither player is rated highly in ZiPS, with about 0.1 WAR over half a season. So I’m going to take 300 plate appearances, apply 0.1 WAR, and count that for both players (Morse also had time at first).

That leaves 303 plate appearances, and Cole Figueroa has been factored in somewhat in the middle infield. I think Jason Rogers will get a lot of time this year as a top bench guy. He’s projected for an 0.9 WAR in 392 plate appearances. That would be an 0.7 WAR if you give him the rest of the time here. I’d factor in Figueroa and drop it, but we’re talking about maybe 0.1-0.2 WAR less. So we’ll stick with 0.8 WAR from the bench.

This section includes 2.2 WAR from Polanco, plus 0.8 WAR from the bench. There’s room for a lot of improvement if Polanco breaks out, plus most of the bench guys are projected really low.

WAR: +3.0 (72.0)

STARTING PITCHING

ZiPS has had an interesting recent history with the Pirates’ rotation. I got an 8.1 WAR with this article three years ago, and the rotation actually put up a 12.3 WAR. Two years ago I got a 9.3 WAR in this article, which seemed low when you consider the previous year’s actual results. They ended up with a 7.4 WAR. Last year the rotation projections were a bit more optimistic at a 10.4 WAR, and the rotation had a 16.9 WAR.

Here are the projected Opening Day starters, and their inning and WAR totals. The interesting thing here is that I had Juan Nicasio projected for the rotation when I first did this exercise, as Ryan Vogelsong wasn’t signed yet. So not much changes there. There’s also the factor of adding in the prospects, which I’ll get to in a bit.

SP: Gerrit Cole (190.0 IP, 4.3 WAR)

SP: Francisco Liriano (166.3 IP, 3.2 WAR)

SP: Jon Niese (157.7 IP, 1.8 WAR)

SP: Jeff Locke (162.7 IP, 1.4 WAR)

SP: Juan Nicasio (101.7 IP, 0.8 WAR)

That gives us 778.1 innings and a combined 11.5 WAR, which is already higher than last year’s projection. From there we need to fill 189 innings to get to the 2015 starting pitching total of 967.1 innings.

I usually include a disclaimer here about adjusting playing time for pitchers. Sometimes a guy will have low innings, and sometimes his innings will look high. I don’t adjust innings up, as injuries happen. Looking at the current group, I can’t see any massive increases that would be needed. Francisco Liriano’s projection is lower than his 2015 total. The same goes for Jon Niese, who could easily end up in the 180-190 inning range. In these cases, the Pirates would obviously see a big value boost if they got the extra innings.

There is also the issue of Jeff Locke. I don’t see him getting 162.2 innings, as the Pirates will have prospects arriving by mid-season. But this falls along the same category. Pitching is unpredictable. On paper, you can imagine Locke staying in the rotation until June 15th, and then being replaced by Glasnow the rest of the season. But in reality, Locke could get some extra starts if the above guys actually fall short from their career best innings totals. There’s also the new delivery factor, which could lead to better results. So we’ll also keep Locke’s totals the same.

The extra 189 innings will go to the prospects for now. Tyler Glasnow will be the top guy, arriving by mid-season. He’s projected for a 1.2 WAR over 116 innings. I think that’s possible over about four months of the year. That leaves 73 innings remaining. We’ll give all of that to Jameson Taillon, who has lower ratings than other options, but is the more realistic choice. That adds an extra 0.4 WAR, and plenty of room for improvement if Taillon exceeds his ZiPS projections.

Taillon and Glasnow add an extra 1.6 WAR to the rotation, giving a total of 13.1 WAR. Once again, this will probably change when the Pirates add another starter.

WAR: +13.1 (85.1)

BULLPEN

This area is much different from the projections in December, as Neftali Feliz, Cory Luebke, and Ryan Vogelsong have been added to the mix. I left Jared Hughes in there, and will factor in guys like Kyle Lobstein later. I took the 522.1 innings pitched by the bullpen in 2015, and used that for the playing time here. For the main relievers, I kept their actual playing time, with the exception of Ryan Vogelsong and Cory Luebke, who I adjusted to their current totals.

CL: Mark Melancon (68.0 IP, 1.2 WAR)

RP: Tony Watson (70.0 IP, 0.9 WAR)

RP: Neftali Feliz (50.7 IP, 0.3 WAR)

RP: Arquimedes Caminero (73.3 IP, 0.2 WAR)

RP: Jared Hughes (62.7 IP, 0.0 WAR)

RP: Cory Luebke (52.0 IP, 0.3 WAR)

RP: Ryan Vogelsong (70.0 IP, 0.4 WAR)

There were 75.2 innings remaining. Kyle Lobstein will be in the bullpen at the start of the year, and should factor in the rotation a bit. I’m giving him 30 innings, which is an 0.3 WAR at his prorated ZiPS value. I’m going with an 0.3 WAR for the final 45.2 innings, figuring that will come from the prospect group in Indianapolis (they might get starts, with some of the starters above getting some of their projected innings in the bullpen).

This year’s projection is at 3.9 WAR, which is the same as last year’s projection.

WAR: +3.9 (89.0)

EARLY 2016 PROJECTION

The Pirates are projected for an 89-73 record, which is actually one win lower than their projection last year. The projection is actually 1.6 WAR lower than the December projection, for the following reasons:

**Alen Hanson has a high projection. At the time, it looked like Hanson would get a lot of playing time this year. Sean Rodriguez is now factored in the mix, and the other bench guys like Morse and Joyce are near replacement level.

**A lot of the projections went down from the initial posting. For example, the starting outfield alone went down 0.8 WAR from the initial posting. I’m not sure what led to this. There were some guys who went up, but it was mostly guys dropping down.

There are several areas where these projections could improve. I’ll detail that in tonight’s First Pitch. For now, this is a good area to be in, as projections are usually conservative, and in many cases here, they happen to be very conservative compared to recent history.

If I had to go with a non-calculated/projection based approach to predict the amount of 2016 wins, then my personal projection would be 94 wins. I think the projections are low here — not just for the starters, but for some of the bench players too. I also think the prospects will make a big impact throughout the year. What would your projection be?

IMPORTANT: You will need to update your password after the switch to the new server in order to log in and comment. Go to the Password Reset Page to change your password.

51 COMMENTS

  1. 98 wins. I don’t see a regression from last year’s team.

    Harrison and Jaso provide more than Walker and Alvarez, on both defense and offense. Polanco and Mercer will have better years. Marte and Cutch will both have All Star seasons.

    Nicosia and Neise will win more than Happ and Burnett. Cole and Liriano will win, combined, between 35 and 40. The pen will remain one of the games’ best.

    I see greater contributions from the youngsters Bell, Hanson, Taillon and Glasnow than is the common thinking. The BMTIB has them all prepared to make contributions upon their arrival. They’ll all have more early, sustained success than Polanco, who in hindsight was rushed to the majors. These four will successfully answer the call, when summoned, because their extended seasoning in Indy provides valuable to them all.

    Most importantly, this orientation to OBP provides more to the offense than our previous “hit or miss” approach. Let’s call this the “Stewart effect”, after our back-up catcher, who frequently pointed to his “brains” upon reaching first base, signifying a smart at-bat.

    We’ll be a smarter offense from 1 through 9 this season.

  2. Hughes had a 1.96ERA in ’14 and a 2.28ERA in ’15, does he have the lowest ‘0.0’WAR solely because of low innings? Seems undervalued to me. And I’ll go with 91 wins, which is a great year but the 4-6 starters make me nervous.

  3. I’m going with 88-74. I do think we win season series vs MIL, CIN and StL, but only split at best vs Mets while also doing worse vs NLW and AL.

    I’ll also go contrarian and opine that the back end SP will be OK, but the pen will fail significantly more often than the past 2 seasons. Run production will be flat, DRS will be up a tick, but not as much as hoped.

  4. McCutchen looks healthy, hungry and poised for a monster year. If he and Marte stay healthy we should be solid to reach 90 wins and I will predict 92. I do think we will miss Burnett/Happ and I do not have confidence in Locke or a big contribution from Taillon /Glasnow this year. The Trib has been running an interesting sidebar to their weeklong position breakdown for the Bucs from an “opposing scout.” Whoever this was he was lukewarm on Jaso, down on Joyce, see holes in Polanco’s swing, Marte’s durability remains a question, and of course questions 3-5 in the rotation, loss of team power. I hope this guy is wrong on Jaso and Polanco. I will be watching Bell closely through this site because I believe he can be a top addition when ready.

    • If he’s lukewarm on Jaso on offense, he’s a bigger fan of dingerz than actually looking at the overall offensive profile.

      Being cautious about Jaso’s defense is fair, but the man can hit RHP.

      I like Josh Bell, but the idea that he will be a better hitter than John Jaso is about as overly optimistic as it gets.

      • His point on Jaso overall was everybody in the league had a shot at him and “you get what you pay for” at $4M to a guy learning a brand new position. By referencing “through this site” I am talking about following Bell’s continued development at AAA. I do believe when he takes over long term he will be better than Jaso..who has been brought in as a platoon player. I don’t expect Bell to be a key difference maker this year. I would be delighted if he takes the job from Jaso by the end of the year on merit. If he displays power and hits for average from both sides than the multi-year saga at first will be over.

        • If he’s using what Jaso got paid to evaluate the player, he isnt a scout. Thats my problem with the Trib right there. If he isnt a scout, fair enough and he’s got his view.

          Its he is truly a scout, he’d be using something beyond what the man got paid as reasoning behind his views on the player. No scout is that lazy.

          I have no problem with publications giving different opinions and starting a discussion, but i dislike that stuff from the Trib. “Here’s a scout, who is lukewarm on a player since he doesnt make a certain amount”. In depth stuff.

          • Your going off again on a phrase and turning it into a lecture about the Trib. And once again making up a fake quotation. What Jaso is paid is only one piece of the opinion.

            • Im using the information you gave me.

              A scout gave his opinion on Jaso, and then (per you) based it off how much he makes.

              No scout uses that logic, at all. And since the scout wasnt named (per you) I feel reasonably confident the Trib made up using a scout at all and ran with someone they knew was skeptical as a devils advocate. Which is fair, but dont wrap it in fake “scout” stuff. I do dislike the Trib, because they regularly engage in crap analysis. Its gone downhill.

              No legit scout uses what a player makes as any part of their evaluation of the players skill set. Its DK level analysis.

              • Reading comprehension issues are a recurring issue with you. You seem unable to focus on the point of a comment, and find a need to miscast a point of view and then manufacture a quotation for another person.
                By the way DK has a much bigger following than you, and doesn’t seem to struggle as much as you with basic analysis…either in print or on the air.

  5. I love this annual article too! And agree that we feel like a 88-90 win team.
    However, I think one of the most interesting things prospect-wise (that would impact one of the assumptions) will be what to do with Glasnow if the Pirates are in the playoff hunt. I think everyone is currently assuming he is just waiting until mid-June, at which point he’ll come up and improve the rotation.
    First of all, there is no doubt in my mind the first guy to be ready will be Taillon. Second, I think it is more likely that Glasnow will still be a two-pitch, slightly wild, and nervous pitcher in June. If Nicasio and Locke are even at the 3.75 to 4.00 ERA range, it is not certain that Glasnow would improve on that. In fact, I would feel very comfortable betting that he would lose his first three games due to nerves alone. At that point, Hurdle would have to decide to stick with him for the long term gain or go back to a more trusted, lesser talent.
    This is not a doom and gloom perspective as I stated I still think they are a 88-90 win team as constructed. It is just that we are no longer able to sit by and watch prospects learn (and lose) at the major league level anymore.

  6. 95 wins, another wild card game at home. But this time Cole rises to the occasion, Bucs get to the NL championship round where they lose to the Cubs.

  7. Tim…in that poll I ran, the top vote getter was 86-89 wins.

    I’m going with 86. Our lack of good SP depth is going to over tax our bullpen.

    Plus, I’ve never been a fan of ZIPs. 😉

  8. I’m predicting 90-72. I think 95 is attainable if injuries don’t get out of control and if the June influx of talent has a relatively smooth transition.

  9. I think Jung Ho, Cervelli, Jay-Hay, El Coffee, Cutch, and Marte, yes all of them, are going to exceed the above projections. I say 96 wins.

  10. I will say 90 wins. I think we will play better against the Central, but I also don’t think we will be nearly as good against the West.

  11. I like all the optimism here, but the staff has a lot to prove, and that’s even assuming everyone stays healthy. I’ll say 85 wins.

    • This sounds about right, maybe a win or two more depending on how bad the Reds and Brewers turn out to be.

      • I’m going with 90! Back of rotation concerns me until the kids are ready. Hope springs eternal! Let’s go bucs!!!

        • If you say so.

          Nothing about Morton or Locke has stopped us from being a top 5 team year to year. And beyond those names, year to year its names fans dont love that end up doing well.

          • Luke, don’t overthink this. If the guys that have produced *weren’t* questionable signings, Ray Searage wouldn’t be getting anywhere near the sort of admiration he has earned.

            • Issue wasnt if they were questionable signings, but if the level of panic come OD about the rotation is always warranted. Difference between worrying when they are signed, and worrying after an entire ST of work with Searage.

              At some point, a simmering of that “oh crap” seems fair since the method is working. Locke and Morton and various reclamation projects always invite worry of 5-10 less wins seasons to season and tend to be overplayed worries.

              They dont all work, but thats why we bring in 2-3 of them in an offseason.

    • In the wildcard era, the only time a non-division winner with 92 games would not have qualified for the first or second wildcard was 2002 (Boston and Seattle were both 93-69, and had there been two wildcards in 2002, one of them would have been eliminated in a playoff).

      So in 40 league-seasons, only once has 92 wins been insufficient to get a wildcard in the current setup. Which is not to say it’s impossible, but it requires some pretty skewed distributions (the 2002 AL East had two teams with 93+ wins and two while TB and BAL had 55 and 67, while the AL West had three teams with 93+ wins). While I could see a similar distribution in the NL Central in 2016 (CHI, PIT, and STL very good, MIL and CIN very bad) I don’t know that the other divisions are sufficiently skewed to where two teams in the NLC and one team in one of the other divisions all hit 92 wins or more.

      • I actually think the Bucs are going to be hurt by the Pollack injury….
        Two NL West teams will now win 93+ games – i am a firm believer in the even year Giants – both the Giants and Dodgers should be 93+ – Diamondbacks will lose 6 to 8 more games without Pollack.
        Nationals and Mets will win 93+ games – that division could be AWFUL! Braves, Phillies could lose 100 each – and the Marlins will be well below .500…

        Cubs could win 100 – especially if the clean up on the Reds and Brewers…

    • I get a lot of flack for being negative on the Pirates. It is largely my fault I think for focusing on stupid moves like the signing of Sean Hurdle and Voldemort. But the BMTIBB has done some smart things – Jaso should be OK at first – Kang will do better than the projections and provide some power to replace Pedro and Walker.
      But I think the big upside is Polanco – he could easily make the leap from a ~2 WAR to a ~4 WAR player and if he does this could be a playoff team. On the other hand – speed does not age well – the MVP is on the down side of the aging curve – I think his offense will be fine – but he will regress as a CF and the sooner the Bucs move Marte to CF and Cutch to Left the better the end result will be

  12. 92 wins. I am hoping for a much higher WAR from Nicasio. By mid season Glasnow and Taillon will be in the rotation and Neise and Locke will be out. Sean Rodriguez will be let go in favor of Hanson or Frazier.

  13. lots of bad teams in the nl so 95 wins is not out of the question. So the bucs win 97 and the central by 3 games over the cubs.

  14. The one thing I’m hoping for this year is more wins against the Brewers and Reds. If we can hold our own against the Cubs and Cards, and win the games we should win against the Brewers and Reds I think we have a shot at winning the division with a win total in the mid 90s.

Comments are closed.