INDIANAPOLIS – Tyler Glasnow has a tremendous amount of upside. He’s one of the top prospects in all of baseball, consistently rated around the top ten, and even being named Keith Law’s number four prospect in the game in today’s mid-season update. He’s got the look of a guy who can be a top of the rotation starter, with a fastball that sits 94-96 MPH and touches as high as 100, along with a plus curveball that can be a devastating strikeout pitch.

Before Glasnow gets to that point, he is going to need to develop his changeup, with the third offering falling well behind the other two pitches. Prior to this year, Glasnow worked on the changeup, but spent a lot of his time focused on command of his fastball, and repeating his delivery, in order to cut down on his control problems. Because of this, the changeup hasn’t had a chance to develop as much. So the Pirates recently mandated that Glasnow throw the changeup more often, in order to try and improve the pitch.

“He used it a lot and doubled-up on it a lot,” Indianapolis Manager Dean Treanor said. “I think it’s good for him to do that. When you throw it twice in a row you’re going to have confidence doing that. That’s what we’re trying to build with him, that confidence with that pitch.”

Glasnow used the pitch a lot last Tuesday when I saw him live, and the pitch didn’t look good. Granted, all of his stuff was off that day, and Glasnow himself said that it was the worst he’s thrown the pitch. But the reports we’ve received haven’t been good for his other outings.

“Today was by far the worst day throwing the changeup,” Glasnow said after last Tuesday’s start. “I’ve throwing it a good amount of times my last four or five starts, and I’ve been feeling good with it. I think I know the adjustment I need to make for next time. I think coming off my last start to this start things got a little better.”

Glasnow said that the key to developing the pitch is to continue to throw it more often. The speed of the pitch lately has been closer to the 88-90 MPH range, which isn’t as effective, especially if his velocity is down a few ticks. That essentially makes the changeup a much slower fastball, giving hitters an advantage against Glasnow.

“I think if there’s anything I need to do it’s to take the velocity off it a little bit,” Glasnow said. “If it’s 88 or 90, that’s a little too high. But I’m going to keep throwing it and I’ve been getting really good swings on it like I’m supposed to. If I keep getting feedback like that, I’ll keep throwing it.”

Treanor said that Glasnow was doing Triple-A hitters a favor by throwing the pitch in the upper-80s, and that he couldn’t get away with that in the big leagues like he could at the current level. However, this is all part of the development process with the pitch.

“It actually helps him get better with that because he realizes he has to throw it better — better command, better action,” Treanor said. “You would like for him to had developed that pitch already before he gets here. So this is a work in progress, but again it’s only going to help him down the road to develop that pitch.”

The changeup looks to be the final thing Glasnow needs before arriving in the majors. He still has control problems at times, and that will also happen when he’s called up. There are some things that you continue working on after a promotion to the big leagues, and the control would be one of those things for Glasnow. The changeup isn’t one of those things, as he wouldn’t see the same success he’s having in Triple-A by working off two pitches, and would get hammered when one of those pitches was off on a given night.

One topic that has surrounded Glasnow’s season this year is the usual Super Two debate. The idea among fans is that he will magically discover a changeup right when the Super Two deadline passes, putting him in line for a call-up. Every year, teams all around baseball say that a prospect has things to work on, and those prospects coincidentally are ready by the second week of June. That’s probably going to be the case with Jameson Taillon and the Pirates. But I don’t think it will be the case with Glasnow. He legitimately has things to work on, and this might take him beyond the second week of June.

Glasnow isn’t concerned about the Super Two talk, or when he could arrive. Instead, he approaches every level knowing that he has to compete and try to use his best stuff.

“You know what you have to do as a pitcher,” Glasnow said. “I’m not a guy that needs to hear ‘This is when we want you to come up.’ You have to pitch good in order to go up, and I have to be consistent to go up. I have to just keep going and keep grinding… My goal is to go up in the big leagues and stay in the big leagues. Whether they want to do it later, or they want to do it now, I have no control. I just have to go out and pitch.”

Glasnow will arrive in the majors at some point, and it could even be later this year. I’d be surprised if he does arrive in a few weeks. If that does happen, I’d temper my expectations for how much he can help right now. The lack of a changeup is a serious issue for him right now, especially when he still has command issues with his other pitches from time to time. Long-term, Glasnow could be better than any pitcher currently in the organization — both in the majors and minors. But in the short-term, without that changeup I’m not sure he would be an upgrade to the current rotation.

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  1. Tim, or anyone else with knowledge, there is a lot of talk about the velocity of the change up, but what type of movement does he have on it? I assume not much since there seems to be such an emphasis on the velo difference in regards to the fastball.

  2. Polanco may have been brought up too early and struggled. If Glasnow does come up now and struggles then what do you do . Send him back down, let him pitch through it . I’m in favor of letting the pros handle it. They’ve been pretty good in the past.

    • I don’t think you can solve all of the shortcomings by just leaving guys at AAA longer. – Polanco – and Marte NEEDED to see major league pitching – LEARN from their mistakes and learn to trust their talent – and grow into their frames to some extent – more Polanco than Marte – though I bet Marte is a good 10 pounds heavier now than he was in his rookie year. I think the same applies to pitchers – Glasnow has been able to be successful with two plus pitches in the Minors – he can be unhittable when he is on. The need for a third pitch is nonexistent in the minors – he does AAA batters a favor when he throws them his change up – it is the only pitch he has that many of them can actually get a bat on. I am not convinced that he needs his third pitch to be a change up – slider – which seems to be a no no int the Bucs world – two seam/four seam fastballs might work better for him with his really good curve.

  3. Am I the only one who watches the games when Cole just says the heck with everything but the fastball? It’s not ideal, but a 3rd pitch isn’t a be all end all, if the other 2 pitcher are plus offerings. I get why they would want him to work on it at AAA as opposed to a tight NL central race.

    • This hardly ever happens. Every start this year has seen Cole throwing 66-71% fastballs, along with around 20% sliders and 10% curves/changeups. There is one exception, and that was the 4/26 start. He threw 80% fastballs, 8.7% sliders, and about 10% combined curves and changeups.

      This was also at Coors Field, so that might have impacted the approach. He also started with a three run lead, and went up 4-0 after the top of the second.

      Last year he only had nine starts where he threw more than 70-71% fastballs, and none were over 79%. Only four were over 75%. In each of those nine starts, he threw the slider 13-23% of the time, and was only under 15% twice. Three of these starts were against the Cubs, at Wrigley.

      • Without looking it up I want it say the Colarado start? I just don’t buy that he’s not better than Locke right now. So he’s being kept down to develop the pitch he’s going to throw 8 to 10 times a game? I’m not saying he should be up, because I get the economics involved, but if his other pitches are as good as advertised 8 to 10 pitches shouldn’t be the deal breaker. Also get Matt Joyce a 1b glove! lol

          • I guess you don’t know how they’ll respond to the demotion, but I like the idea of Locke in the bullpen. I’m sure you will have numbers on this, but I feel like Locke gets worse the 2nd and 3rd time through the order. Having him as Tallion’s long man/spot starter isn’t a bad situation.

      • I should have hit see more sooner…I’ll get them called up, I’ll just buy tickets to their next couple Indy starts.

  4. Agh…busy day of work. Just getting on here to read the glasnow “feed.” Tim has a right to fire back when he gets challenged, it’s his livelihood he built from scratch under attack…everyone else does too to a degree because they pay to be here…but to attack the site or an author? I think some may value their opinions too much. Tim said glasnow might not be able to help with his changeup the way it is. I would say “I think I would disagree with that because he has two dominant pitches and is a tough guy to square up and hit HR off of…plus he is a strikeout pitcher.” See? Respectful banter. See how easy that is? Then Tim can counter with an opinion…So much lackof respect and tact. Your keyboard muscles are huge…do you work out?

    • I’d respond right now, but the part of the message where I’m not a scout, where you question my baseball knowledge because I disagree with you, and where Keith Law is god were all cut off. Maybe it will show up later.

      Seriously though, he does have two plus pitches, and that will help him in most outings. But he also loses command of those pitches, which right now means there are some outings where he has just one pitch. That will lead to the same thing we’re seeing now from Nicasio, where he looks great sometimes, and then gets destroyed sometimes.

      • Agreed. Randy Johnson sported a 4.10-ish era or so almost his first 1,000 ip before he quit walking 140 per year…and Johnson wasn’t up full time until he was 25.

  5. Could Glasnow throw strikes in this sort of situation – Liriano can’t get out of the 6th want can’t throw a strike and is being paid over $12M a year for this – I am sorry – bring on the young guns…

      • And if you think Liriano did not struggle and was not the kind of pitcher we should expect for $12M plus a year then you are not as smart as I think you are. The score had absolutely nothing to do with an overpaid old pitcher who enjoys getting a hit now and then more than doing his job on the mound.

          • Well I think you need to think about moving him either at the trade deadline or during the off season. The size of the contract will limit takers – but teams like Miami and even Arizona could use a lefty starter. That only becomes viable if you have three new arms arriving soon.

            • I don’t think they move him at the deadline. If they do it in the off-season, they’ll probably need someone to replace him. Even if Taillon, Glasnow, and Kuhl come up this year, you’re still going to need one more pitcher. Plus, it’s not a good idea to enter a season with so many guys pitching their first full seasons.

              Probably better to try and get Liriano back on track.

              • Well I would love to see the good Frankie – but we probably need to get a different Ray to be his pitching coach – it should be no secret that I do not worship at the Ray Searage altar as many on this site do – my favorite pitching coach was Ray Miller – work fast – throw strikes – change speeds.

  6. If Glasnow’s struggles in the majors it will be his command, if any pitcher can’t throw the fastball for strikes, they are going to struggle.

    I understand the focus on the change up, but if it is his 3rd best pitch what is the probability that during a start he cannot command his curve but the change up will be there?

    From 2014-16, Glasnow has K%-BB% of 22.7% and OPS of .561 against RHH, against LHH those numbers are 18.7%, .520. Charlie Morton lowered his arm slot and threw two pitches and threw some 600 innings with ERA 3.96 and FIP 3.85.

    Given the projections for the current Pirates rotation, I think Glasnow could help the Pirates now.

  7. Really? That is absurd….what do Niese and Locke need to work on to help the Pirates?
    Enough with the Pirates FO BS – its called Super 2 – that is the reason and only reason Glasnow and Taillon are not already in Pittsburgh. I’d respect them more if they were just honest about it and just say it.

      • What I think annoys some of us is that we are paying for a site that seems committed to reinforcing the FO line of BS. You are right – Huntington or any front office guy cannot say the real reason this team won’t put it’s 25 best players on the field – but YOU can and probably should once in a while.

        BTW calling this article “analysis” is silly – or worse. It is your opinion – you feel you have facts and data to support that opinion – but NOBODY has shown me any data saying that one of the top 10 pitchers in the International League is a high risk proposition

        • 1. I’ve said repeatedly that Taillon is being held back by Super Two. I’m not saying it for Glasnow because I don’t think that is the case. You can’t accuse me of that if I’m doing the exact opposite with another player.

          2. The article is made up of quotes from interviews with Glasnow and Treanor, plus conversations with scouts, and seeing Glasnow pitch. From there, I add my opinion as well. That’s how you analyze a pitcher’s stuff. If it was all opinion, and nothing else, then you’d have a point.

          • They don’t get it, because they aren’t privy to the info you get….They just see the #’s

      • Didn’t the Cubs almost get in hot water with publicly talking about Bryant in negative terms regarding S2?

        • Not S2…that was never the case with Bryant. His issue was the added year of control.

          The Cubs kept him down for 11 (I think) games last season, and doing so gave them his rights through ’21. Had they brought him up before that, he was a FA after ’20.

          Boras made a big stink about it and got Epstein about as close as you can get someone to admitting it was done for control. Epstein didn’t fully bite and I’m pretty sure it went away.

          It was playing with rules of the game…the same way the Pirates are doing with Taillon, but for a different reason…nothing at all wrong with it…you just can’t say you’re doing it.

      • That tells me the Super 2 rule needs to go….and in time, I am sure it will. Its not fair to the players involved, the team, or the manager who should be able to field his best team….

  8. I have tried to stay away from NMR and his posts (unless I agreed with him) but, unfortunately, I can’t stop him from commenting on my posts.

    I am not on here to provide amusement for others while arguing with him. I don’t care for how he denigrates people and people’s opinions. And, if you disagree with him, that is what it seems (at least to me) to devolve into. But, it is what it is.

    Therefore, I am making a decision to stay away from commenting here. I really don’t need the aggravation his comments provide. Although I enjoy the banter with almost all of you (and will miss you, for sure), the articles are what I mainly come here for.

    If I use the app, all I get is the article. For whatever reason I can’t get the comments to load, so it is perfect for this decision I have made.

    Go Bucs!

    • leefoo,

      Come on. You’re a valued member here. You’re right just as much as the rest of us and wrong just as much.

      Well, except for two or three guys…who always seem to be complete %^#(%^.

      Don’t take this shit too seriously.

      And, by the way, with the app…the comment section is at the top right-hand corner.

    • I’d try to talk you out of it, but really I’m just jealous that you get to make that decision to ignore the comments, especially on days like today.

      I hope you keep commenting though.

    • Come on, Foo….You’re better than this. You sound like the dude that walked away after arguing with JD about “No-List” I hope you just had a moment and can brush this off. Although, you and NMR have differences in opinions that doesnt mean you should have thin skin and let him get the best of you.

  9. The bottom line in all of this is that, if NH says that TG is not ready, I would lean towards trusting his opinion over anybody’s here. He knows his stuff, imo. In NH I trust.

    We could argue until the cows come home, but it doesn’t matter. Only NH’s (and his braintrust’s) opinion matters

    • Foo – u r smarter than that – look at the line – the stats – Glasnow may have his ups and downs but he is better than most of the pitchers we currently trot out every night in Pirate uniforms.

  10. I guess I am a little confused why Glasnow will not be called up until he figures out the changeup , while Cole has been up for 3 years and still doesn’t have one. What am I missing here?

    • Nothing, change ups are overrated if you are a power pitcher who can locate the fastball and throw a big curve

      • A change up is a pitch that is thrown slower than a pitcher’s FB so as to upset a batter’s timing.

        By that definition, Cole has a changeup.

        • And a badly located change-up is an invitation for guys who can’t catch up to a good fastball to hammer you.

          • Was tempted to accuse Tim of “click-baiting” with this article – but the labeling of what is clearly an opinion piece as “Analysis” threw me off…

            We have fallen down the rabbit hole on this one folks – one of the ten best pitchers in the International League is not going to be called up until he “learns” to throw a changeup….

            Torn between

            • I said it the other day, but it would be absolutely hilarious if Tim and John did this same form of micro analysis on Gerrit Cole’s 12 AAA starts before going on to post a sub-3 FIP in his first taste of Major League ball.

              • I think we did. Cole really made some strides in his final 3-4 starts in Triple-A. He carried that over to his first month in the majors, and then really started improving. Go back and read the archives.

                • Yes, why of course. He magically put it all together in 3-4 starts, which just so happened to perfectly place him past Super2.

                  You guys are geniuses.

                  • Cole walked 15 batters in 23.1 innings his first five starts that year.

                    He slowly decreased the command issues, walking 11 in 30 innings his next five starts. He was also getting hit pretty hard during this stretch.

                    When he went up to Triple-A the year before, his Double-A manager said he wasn’t ready for that assignment, because his command looked poor in Altoona. It turned out to be right.

                    His final two starts, he showed much better command. Things were clicking toward the end of that second five game stretch, but he really put it all together in the final two outings.

                    So yeah, this is one of those cases where he did magically put it all together right before getting called up.

              • I don’t think we got into the micro level back then – as I recall there were several good summaries of what Cole was doing – but this inning by inning – pitch by pitch crap is new – I think…

                I would also note that Cole and Glasnow are very different pitchers…

                Cole’s K/9 in AAA 6.5 SO/W 2.1 ERA 2.80
                [I was someone who thought that a pitcher who could get to 100 on the radar gun should strike out more than 1 an inning]

                TG K/9 so far in AAA 11.0 SO/W 2.5 ERA 2.18

                Tell me how the Cole story justifies bringing him up and the Glasnow story supports keeping him at AAA….

                • Bruce, they have expanded their coverage, this site has grown to the point where we can get in depth analysis when one of Glasnow, Taillon and Kuhl pitch. I think it’s excellent coverage and you can’t get it anywhere else. I guess my question to you would be – If you don’t like Tim and co., then why in the hell are you here? All you do is constantly whine and complain about everything.

    • Cole has a “meh” one, but throws 3 other pitches as well.

      Its not about purely having a change up, but having a 3rd pitch. Cole has 3, and 4 if you count his not great change up. Tyler’s third is the change that he’s still developing, and when he throws it too hard its really just a crappy FB.

    • Cole throws a fastball, two-seamer, slider, curve, and changeup. If his slider is off one day, he can still turn to two other pitches along with the fastball, and that’s not counting the changeup.

      If Glasnow’s curve is off one night, then he’s got one pitch right now.

  11. Glasnow

    Floor – (If he doesn’t develop a good change) Lights out Reliever/Closer?
    Ceiling – (If he does develop a good change) Lights out Starter?

    Do I have that correct?

    • Here, let me put a bullseye on my back.

      If you told me that TG was coming up tomorrow and taking over for Melancon, I’d get a little nervous, but say…”okay, let’s see how this goes.”

      If you told me he was stepping into the rotation, my response would be…”can I get Taillon or Kuhl instead????”

    • Thank goodness he throws a FB-SL-CB, along with a so so change up.

      Im all for not needing a good change if you throw 3 other pitches better than the change.

  12. Glasnow needs a change-up before he can be effective; Kuhl doesn’t have a change-up (or arguably a Slider at least in terms of strikeouts) but he’s more ready.

    It makes zero sense when you place the two side-by-side and consider this site’s comments on both.

    The last sentence of the article is comically absurd, especially considering that Jeff Locke still remains in the rotation. Projections, all actual scouts, and commons sense make the last statement, not just wrong, but strange.

    • Why are you here?

      Per P2 from 05-19:
      While the slider has improved in terms of effectiveness, the real improvement has come with the changeup, which Stallings feels is the bigger factor in Kuhl’s numbers.

      “The thing that has helped him the most has been his changeup,” Stallings said. “He’s really learned to throw that pitch to both sides of the plate. Being able to add that third pitch just puts something else in the hitter’s minds, and it’s made him extremely effective.”

      Kuhl has thrown the changeup before, but is seeing better results with it this year, and learning when and how to use the pitch.

      “This year has been nice, just because I’ve added that changeup, and I feel like that gets them off the fastball/slider combo,” Kuhl said. “It gives them another thing to consider. Just having that third pitch really helps out, even when I’m not throwing it a ton.”

      • I don’t read just Pirates information, Kozy.

        I know what others outside of PGH think of Kuhl. It’s not remotely similar to what this site (and apparently you) think of Kuhl. A couple of quotes from a C doesn’t change the equation.

        • That’s not the point, though. The point is you claimed Kuhl doesn’t have a changeup. The fact is he does. Kuhl’s changeup may not be good, but Glasnow’s is completely ineffective, and that’s not something you would say about Kuhl’s.

          • No, he doesn’t. The only people that talk about Kuhl having a change-up are the same clowns predicting success for him as a SP in the Majors and the laughable thought that he’d be better than Glasnow in 2016. No one of any repute thinks that.

            • I mean, sure, if you ignore the on-site Major League scouts, his manager, and his catcher, you could say Kuhl doesn’t have a changeup, but those three sources all say he does, so I’m willing to believe he does. You know, since the folks who watch him literally every game say he throws one and it’s a serviceable pitch.

              But I mean, I guess you can just ignore that information entirely. That’s your prerogative. Don’t let me tell you how to live your life.

        • Most outlets are saying he’s a C+ prospect. I don’t think this site is saying anything to the contrary. He’s probably a slightly better version of Brandon Cumpton. There’s value in that. There are a lot of pitchers that carved out very good careers with similar profiles.

  13. hey if you don’t call him up this year, than its mid june next year. also why no concern about tallion swing and miss rate.

  14. I’m sure the “No-list” Fan Club will say something to the effect of “He still would be better than Locke, Niese, Nicasio…”

      • Well, Nicasio isn’t one of the best prospects in all of baseball. No need to rush this kid.

          • Lee, my point is that certain folks on here think that he would be better than the bottom 3rd of the rotation and could care less if it harms his development and confidence.

            In fact, you bring up Nicasio and that’s what Glasnow would be like as a starter….Maybe worse, because of his “nerves” and command & control issues.

              • Catch22 said “maybe”.

                And some (lots) prospects do have “nerves”. I’m not sure it is a contrivance.

                Plus, there is the experience factor. You learn a lot year to year.

                I’m with Catch22…why rush him? And I am NOT a fan of our three #5 starters.

              • That’s what you got out of my post? Sure, NMR, I’ll play along…..Take the nerves out and you still have some legit reasons of why he is NOT ready.

                    • You really think what a particular player – or manager – says is gospel? Guys that get to the big leagues don’t ‘choke’ or wilt under pressure; they simply have bad games that people extrapolate into some bullshit narrative that the pitcher in question couldn’t handle the lights. You sound like Harold Reynolds w/o even realizing it.

                    • I don’t think I’ve ever made this claim about Glasnow. That might be people blowing up my comments into something they’re not.

                      Kind of like when I say Chad Kuhl is a future #4 starter, and then people take that and expand it further to say Kuhl is even better than that.

                      I’ve just said what Glasnow told me: he deals with nerves, and throughout his career he has been working to control that, so he doesn’t let innings and starts spiral out of control. I’ve noted the improvements, and never said this was long-term.

                      You and NMR don’t know what the hell you’re talking about with this. You don’t even know what I’ve actually written on the subject or what Glasnow has said.

            • List me every pitcher on the Pirate current 25 man roster you feel is clearly better than Glasnow…
              Liriano – not lately
              Cole – could be – but not pitching much like a #1 starter let alone one of the leagues best.
              Niese – hope this is clear
              Nicosia – really like him – but he is needed in the bullpen
              Locke – I have been a Locke defender – but he is no Glasnow
              Caminaro – give me a break
              Hughes – proof that pitching to contact sucks and regression is real
              Shugel – easy win for Glasnow
              Feliz – nice guy in his role – but not Glasnow
              Boston – Ranked lower than Kuhl Tailon and Glasnow in IL – good but not as good as TG
              Watson – shaky still…
              Melancon – maybe as good – but he is a non factor after September

      • Nicasio’s a good case study, I think, for the sort of performance we could expect from Glasnow were he to be called up right now. Two electric swing-and-miss pitches, but spotty command of them, and no third for when one of the other two isn’t working. Lots of strikeouts, but too many walks and games where everyone centers them up, trouble getting through the lineup multiple times.

        Glasnow’s stuff is more electric than Nicasio’s, so he’d likely post better aggregate numbers, but I don’t think it would be by a lot.

        I think I’d rather wait until Glasnow’s a bit more polished rather than calling up Nicasio to move Nicasio to the ‘pen. We could instead call up someone steadier for that spot.

        • It’s not so much that Nicasio fails when his slider isn’t working, it’s that his combination of pitches have massive platoon splits.

          Glasnow’s fastball is more over the top at a much greater plane and curveballs are typically less platoon-prone than sliders.

  15. The key is to come up to the “Bigs” and contribute. At least that should be the case with the PBC. If Huntington would of strengthen his rotation and the bullpen performed as expected then any Super Two discussion would be moot. We have a couple of holes that need fixed. Hopefully when JT is ready he can solve one of them.

  16. The Indy announcers also need to learn the change-up. They call every non-curve a fastball. “Fastball outside at 94 miles per hour….Glasnow with the strike on a 86 mile per hour fastball evens the count.”

  17. I really think that his height factors into his development. Although he is not as tall as Randy Johnson his is close enough to warrant some patience with his development of his control and his secondary pitches. He projects to be really special down the road and it could be a real mistake to rush his promotion regardless of the financial implications down the road of Super 2.

    • I think that’s a big indirect reason why he hasn’t learned the changeup. Tall pitchers take longer to learn to repeat their mechanics, since there are more moving parts. Without the control issues, Glasnow might have started learning the changeup a few years ago.

      Taillon took this “force him to use the changeup” approach in High-A. He’s a few inches shorter than Glasnow, had more weight on his frame early, and also gradually grew, rather than shooting up over eight inches in one year, and suddenly having to adjust to your new height like Glasnow did.

      This is a big reason why I haven’t been concerned long-term about Glasnow’s control.

      • That’s what I never got Tim! The Pirates have had TG in the system for 4+ years and he’s this close to coming up (which even himself knew) and he never had a changeup down. If he had to develop this to get in the majors, wouldn’t he and/or the Pirates have him working on this 1-2 years ago? Not when he’s a top prospect and the Pirates midseason plan for the rotation!

        • I met him 4 1/2 years ago when he was 6-7. He was 17 at the time, drafted and signed by the Pirates.. He didn’t go to college as Randy Johnson did, He started minor league pitching out of Hart High School. In high school he high-jumped on the track team. He lifted weights tutored by his older brother Ted Glasnow who became a decathlete at Notre Dame. Off season he continues lifting weights.
          Presently he is 22 and will turn 23 August 23rd. Yes he is in full development at a much younger age than Randy Johnson.

          • Tyler Glasnow at age 17, drafted and signed by Pittsburgh out of Hart High School, Newhall, California.

        • Well, its an opinion so it cant be “wrong”.

          As to if I myself agree, eh. I think he’d better better than Nicasio, but not by much the way his control flares up. But I see value in one Nicasio type in the rotation and another in the pen.

          • To say nothing of Niese and Locke, who are currently two of the six worst starters in baseball?

            By the way, Jeff Lock himself has been a two-pitch pitcher this year (lost his curveball?) and the two he has are *at least* a full grade lower than Glasnows in quality.

            Tyler Glasnow is absolutely good enough to help this team.

            If the argument is that he, and the team, are better off in the long run by keeping him down during a season where they’re almost certainly not winning the division with or without him then I have absolutely no problem. But it seriously, seriously calls Tim’s knowledge into question if he truly believes what he just wrote.

            • I agree Tyler can help the team, particularly in 2-3 weeks from now. But I see the reason to weigh how much he helps vs how much he’d be helped by being more developed before arriving to the majors for good.

              Im not ready to say he clearly would put up sub 4 ERA stuff against ML hitters though. I think he’d look great for his first 2-3 starts, and then you’d see poor control+hitters adjusting causing issues.

              • I wouldn’t even go that far…..cause it depends on his control during those games which seems relatively random

            • I agree, but, in all fairness…the last line is:

              “I’m not sure he would be an upgrade to the current rotation.”

              SURE is a pretty big word.

              But, yeah, I’d agree…I think he would be an upgrade…the question is…which of the under-performers would he replace?

              Mmmmmmm, when you have three bowls of shit and have to eat from two…it’s so difficult to discern…do you go for the one with peanuts, beans, or corn?

              • Seems like Niese makes a good deal of sense but you wont see them shunt the guy making the most out (and I dont agree with that).

                Nicasio should be the first to go because he helps the bullpen the most (in my opinion). The other guy then becomes tough, and Locke being a lefty+making less seems to make it a very typical move.

                I’ll need another 2-3 decent starts from Niese before loving keeping him in the rotation.

                • Just about everything you wrote I typed and deleted because it didn’t work well with my bowl metaphor. 🙂 🙂 🙂

                  Yup, Niese isn’t going to be the first to go because of salary, Nicasio would be the best BP arm, Locke is probably the worst pitcher of the three.

                  It’s a jumbled mess of less-than-mediocrity at the bottom of the rotation.

                  Honestly, there’s a part of me that wishes the Pirates were 5 games under .500 instead of five over…dump all three on the roadside, bring up the young guys, and roll with it.

            • Here’s my counter: Why is he good enough to help the team now?

              I would say he’d be better than what Locke can bring. I actually wasn’t thinking about him, since I’ve got him as a guy to be replaced by Taillon in a few weeks. I don’t think Glasnow is going to be an upgrade right now over Niese or Nicasio.

              • Because he misses bats, Tim. He’ll be inconsistent, yes, but he can absolutely get big league hitters out with the two pitches he does have. The *quality* of those pitches in and of themselves seems to be getting lost in the myopic focus on his flaws.

                I’m not sure how one can argue that Nicasio would be better, considering he himself is a two-pitch guy who struggles with command and Glasnow’s pitches are of better quality.

                You also seem to be holding onto a version of John Niese that no longer exists. Niese is two years older than the last time he was effective and is now a lefty with spotty command and below-average offspeed stuff who rarely breaks 90 mph. This is not the same pitcher he was as a 27 year old.

                • Niese has, however, been a perfectly serviceable pitcher at home. He’s walked more than he’d like to, but his K/9 is back up to where it was when he was a 2+ WAR pitcher in 2013 and 2014. The problem has been the long ball. In fact, his K% and BB% are almost identical to those he posted in his 2.0 WAR 2013 season.

                  He’s had four road starts, and in those four road starts, he’s allowed 9 HR, and his HR/FB% is 31%. That’s absurd. Three of those starts were at Coors Field, Chase Field, and Great American Ballpark, which are notoriously power-friendly stadiums. (The other was against the Tigers, who appear to have constructed their lineup on a philosophy of power, for whatever that might be worth.) Chase Field was, in particular, yielding an absurd number of home runs at the time the Pirates ran through, not just in that series, but in the preceding series. Conversely, he’s allowed only 2 HR in five starts at home and a perfectly reasonable 10.1% HR/FB%.

                  Niese will be useful. The terrible start on the road will prevent him from being a 2+ WAR pitcher on the aggregate this year, but he might produce about 1.5 WAR (or about a 2 WAR pace) the rest of the way, provided his true talent HR/FB% more resembles what he’s posted at home, a not-unreasonable expectation considering the context.

                  • Addendum: Niese’s whiff% has also returned to 2013-4 levels. The K% and K/9 are not illusions. There are real indications he’s returning to that form from when he was posting solid seasons.

                  • Oh yeah, no problem at all in arbitrarily dissecting already-small sizes. If Jon Niese simply pitches like he has on Tuesday evenings in ballparks below 1500′ in elevation he’ll be fine. Because stats.

                    I don’t doubt he’ll be better – he can’t be much worse – but this is seriously stretching.

                    • It’s not arbitrary to seek context for an outlier in his stat line. In this case, his outlier is the most immediately damaging. I didn’t arbitrarily select anything, I sought an explanation for a number that didn’t look right. I found something possibly at least partially explanatory, which agreed with a fair assumption about regression moving forward. What’s the point of having stats and splits and game logs if we don’t try to interrogate them for insights into overall outcomes?

                      I’m not sure anyone is a true talent 22.9% HR/FB% pitcher. Niese at his worst has been at 15%. Other elements of his peripherals (basically all of them, taken from the full season) suggest he’s something closer to the pitcher he was in 2013-4. This isn’t really a reach.

                    • I’ve been preaching all season that his HR/FB rate HAS to come down. I’m not as confident as I once was tho haha

                • He misses Triple-A bats. That doesn’t mean he’s guaranteed to see the same success against big league guys. Especially when he still has command issues with his pitches from time to time, and doesn’t have a third pitch to fall back on.

                  • It’s almost like it would be smart to regress his AAA K-rate for that reason…wait, what’s that? We already do that? And he still projects to strike out a batter an inning with a FIP under 4?

                    This response perfectly highlights what I’m talking about. Tyler Glasnow is going to fall apart against big league hitting, apparently, but Chad Kuhl is sure to have his “weak contact” skills translate. I’m not sure at this point if you’ve gone too far down the rabbit hole to see your way out, or if you genuinely do not understand which skills correlate higher.

                    • I’m currently standing outside the rabbit hole, watching you struggling down below.

                      Let me know when you start watching these players, and getting scouting input, rather than taking a cookie cutter approach that strikeouts are the only thing that matter. Then I’ll start taking you seriously.

                    • I look forward to it. From my perspective, I’m looking at:

                      1. Never hearing the end of it if I’m wrong.
                      2. Never receiving any sort of apology for having my credibility, integrity, and knowledge attacked for days and weeks if I’m right.

                      Seriously, you need to learn how to discuss a topic without all of these personal attacks. I get more complaints about you than everyone else on here combined. In fact, I don’t think I’ve received a complaint about anyone else. I think you need to revisit your approach on here.

                  • And….Tim’s the only one who sees that future. W/ Liriano, Cole, Glasnow, Taillon in the fold next year, it’s very likely that Kuhl ends up in the bullpen than the Pirates’ 5th starter.

                    The fact that we’re even comparing Glasnow and Kuhl in 2016 is hilarious and totally irrelevant to the reality of their potentials – even in the short-term.

                    • I see that future.

                      Several scouts I talked to last week saw that future.

                      The Pirates see that future.

                      But Andrew Smalley doesn’t. And Keith Law doesn’t. So everyone else is wrong!

                      No one is comparing the potential of Glasnow and Kuhl. Just comparing where they are right now.

            • I think Matt harvey and Sonny Gray are both actually significantly worse which goes to show you how success can be so fleeting in this game….

            • I don’t think we will get a chance to find out….so its moot, but I see Glasnow right now as being slightly better than Nicasio since I believe his curve is better than Nicasio’s slider. Everything else I’d say is about the same. Hard to compare Neise/Locke to Glasnow since they just are completely different pitchers, throw with the other hand, etc…..Based on the lack of velocity, i’d have to say that Niese is the poorer of the two pitchers, and I’d have to agree that against most opponents on most nights, Glasnow for 5 innings is going to be more succesful than Neise- I would be real hesitant to go any further than that though

            • oh, so because I have been wrong a few times (and I am not afraid of voicing my opinion and being wrong), that makes YOUR opinion, which is NEVER wrong, that much better?

              Now THAT is laughable, my friend.

              Did you have too much caffeine today? You seem overly aggressive for some reason.

        • I think Pirates brass views TG as a fragile lottery ticket. They want to handle with care before cashing him in. I also believe they’re right to do so, irregardless if he’s better “right now” than our #3-5 SP’s.

          • Again, no problem with that. I’ve been the one all winter saying they’ve punted, and that’s born out thus far.

            My problem is belaboring the point, in defense of the Front Office, so far as to actually insinuate Glasnow wouldn’t even be an improvement over two of the worst pitchers in baseball thus far and a guy who *himself* doesn’t have a changeup.

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