The entire Pirates pitching staff has been a problem this year. I’ve written about this a few times over the last week. But tonight, I wanted to take a deeper look at the bullpen, specifically the middle relief.
Neal Huntington has received plenty of criticism for his approach to building the pitching staff this off-season. But one area where the pitching looked like a strength was the bullpen. He decided to keep Mark Melancon, returning a late inning relief combo of Melancon and Tony Watson that had been one of the best bullpen combos in baseball in recent years. That gave them the core of the group.
They were also returning Arquimedes Caminero and Jared Hughes, who both had good seasons for middle relievers last year. And they spent a lot of effort adding big arms to that group, seemingly giving them a shot at building a great bullpen. Here was one of the tweets I had over the off-season, looking at all of the hard throwers in the bullpen.
Updated list of #Pirates relievers who can hit 97+ MPH: Feliz, Nicasio, Caminero, Scahill, Medina, Holdzkom, Rondon, Haley, Partch.
— Tim Williams (@TimWilliamsP2) January 7, 2016
Not listed in that group was Allen Webster, who went to play in Korea (and currently has 47 walks in 71 innings, so he might not have helped). Looking at the group above, a few of those guys were removed as options before the season started. John Holdzkom was dealing with an injury during Spring Training and was released. Yoervis Medina was essentially dropped for A.J. Schugel, and has been out all year with the Phillies with an elbow injury.
So what went wrong with the bullpen? How did the Pirates go from one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, to one of the worst bullpens this year, despite the fact that they returned most of the key players from the 2015 group, and added to that group?
The biggest thing is that the returning players haven’t performed close to their previous success. Tony Watson is posting a 3.72 ERA and a 4.26 xFIP. Jared Hughes has a good ERA at 2.95, but his 6.35 xFIP shows how he’s really been pitching. Arquimedes Caminero has a 4.57 ERA, and his xFIP is worse, at 6.08. Mark Melancon has the best numbers in the bullpen, with a 1.59 ERA, but there’s some regression due ahead, indicated by his 4.28 xFIP.
Then there’s the guys they added over the off-season. Neal Huntington didn’t do a good job adding to the rotation, which led to Juan Nicasio becoming a starter. He might be better off as a reliever. Neftali Feliz has been good as a reliever, with a 3.55 ERA and a 3.39 xFIP. In fact, if you go by xFIP, Feliz has been the best reliever in the bullpen this year.
Out of the middle relievers, A.J. Schugel and Rob Scahill have looked good at times, and both have xFIPs under 4.00. Those two join Feliz as the only relievers with significant innings who have an xFIP under 4.00 (Jorge Rondon has a 3.11 xFIP in 3.2 innings, but has been shelled in those innings).
The rest of the middle relief options haven’t worked. And a big reason for that probably goes toward the starting rotation.
Last year, through the month of June (76 games), the Pirates saw 238.2 innings from their bullpen. Out of those innings, 93.2 were from the relievers outside of Melancon/Watson/Hughes/Caminero. Those other relievers pitched an average of 1.1 innings per game.
This year, through 71 games, the Pirates have seen their bullpen pitch 241 innings. The guys outside of Melancon/Watson/Hughes/Caminero have pitched 143.2 of those innings, or 2 per game. And it gets worse when you consider that Hughes and Caminero haven’t performed much better than the other guys.
That’s significant. On average, the Pirates need an extra inning per game from those lower quality relievers, compared to last year. A big reason for this is because the rotation has struggled, leading to a lot of appearances from these guys while the team is behind. And those appearances leave these guys over-exposed, and also worn out. That has led to a revolving door between the minors and the majors, which has to be difficult for anyone to possibly get in a routine to have any type of success in the majors.
So what needs to happen for the Pirates to get back to having a good bullpen?
The biggest thing is that Melancon and Watson need to get back to pitching like Melancon and Watson. The entire tone of the bullpen changes when you’ve got those two pitching the late innings and dominating. Neftali Feliz looks like a good seventh inning guy behind the good versions of those two. Having them performing can shorten games.
The next thing would be to move Juan Nicasio to the bullpen. This is complicated, as the Pirates would still have Jeff Locke in the rotation, and really they need to replace both of those guys as starters. The problem is that, once Gerrit Cole returns, they’ll need one starting and don’t have a replacement for them. But Nicasio’s best role is in the bullpen, and he could provide a big boost for the middle innings.
I think A.J. Schugel and someone like Rob Scahill would be good for the final two middle relief spots. Maybe Hughes and/or Caminero would improve in a smaller role, as the 5th-7th relief option. But with any of these guys, the key to success might come with better starting pitching, since that will reduce their workload. It’s not really the workload that is leading to poor results. It’s the fact that you’re more likely to see poor results from these guys using them so often. It might not hurt to add someone from the outside, but most of these guys are pitching from behind, which isn’t a good situation for any reliever to constantly be in.
The bullpen looked like a strength at the start of the year, to the point where it could help make up for the weakness of the rotation. But everyone who performed last year has struggled, and most of the people brought in over the off-season have struggled. It’s not going to be an easy fix to turn things around, as it involves a lot of players just playing better. But one thing that would definitely help is the rotation improving, which would lessen the need for the bullpen, and lessen the amount of times the number 5-7 guys see action.
**Erik Kratz Pitches a Shutout Inning, But the Pirates Lose, Obviously. Alan Saunders recaps the blowout that got so out of hand, Erik Kratz had to come in and pitch.
**Prospect Watch: Big Game From Reese McGuire in Altoona Win. Good to see McGuire having a nice night. John Dreker recaps the games across the system.
**Pirates Face Another of the National League’s Best. Alan Saunders looks at how many top pitchers the Pirates have faced in recent weeks.
**Pitchers Have Adjusted to Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Now It’s Time to Adjust Back. Abigail Miskowiec looks at why Ke’Bryan Hayes struggled in May, after a big month of April.
**Morning Report: Best and Worst of the First Half for Bradenton. John Dreker continues his first half reviews, looking at Bradenton.
