The Pirates completed their 2016 draft class this weekend, and as I wrote last night, a bulk of the value from that class comes from the prep pitchers taken in the top 11 rounds. That’s not to say that Will Craig is a bad pick, but if they’re going to find value beyond the first round, it will almost certainly come from those prep pitchers.
The usual post-draft questions have come up, wondering how the Pirates will manage to get anything out of this class, with so many flaws being so obvious. The prep pitchers have velocity and projectable frames, but don’t have much in the way of off-speed stuff. The third round pick, shortstop Stephen Alemais, and the seventh round pick, catcher Brent Gibbs, are both strong defensively, but lack hitting skills. Some of the college guys have good velocity and poor control.
This is what you get outside of the first round. If the prep pitchers could hit mid-90s at their ages, while also throwing good breaking pitches and having no command issues, they’d be taken at the top of the draft. A catcher or a shortstop who can play strong defense, stick at the position, along with no offensive questions would also be taken at the top of the draft.
The job for the Pirates now is to develop these guys, and hope that some of them fix their flaws and turn into prospects. To show that this isn’t impossible, here is a look back at some Baseball America draft profiles of players taken outside of the first round when they were first drafted:
[Player] is still growing into his huge body, but he reportedly ran his fastball into the low 90s this spring, though scouts say his fastball ranged from 83-89 mph more often, sitting in the mid-80s. He flashes a curveball that has a chance to be average and the makings of a slider and a changeup, but he rarely uses the change. His command has a long way to go, and he is regarded as a high-risk prospect who could provide a high reward if he can harness his mechanics and command.
This player had inconsistently velocity, getting up to the low-90s, but with reports that he was often sitting mid-80s. His curveball only had a chance to be average, and his changeup was rarely used. He had command issues and was high risk/high reward.
That player? Tyler Glasnow — the top prospect in the system, and one of the top prospects in baseball.
Glasnow did grow into his huge body, and a year later was sitting low-to-mid 90s, hitting 96 consistently. He improved from there, eventually sitting 94-96 and touching higher. His curveball went well beyond average, and is now a plus pitch. His changeup? Well, it was still rarely used up until this year, mostly because those command issues needed to be fixed. They’re still not gone, but much improved over where he was when he first entered pro ball.
Here is another guy:
At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, [Player] has a lean, projectable build with long limbs and is a good athlete. His fastball sits 90-92 mph with late life and downhill plane from a high three-quarters slot, touching 95 in shorter stints. His curveball has average potential, flashing better, though he doesn’t consistently finish the pitch. His changeup has improved and flashes average potential. [Player] has an easy delivery that should give him average control. His arm circle has some length, with a wrist wrap in the back, but he throws strikes.
This guy did have the velocity, but once again we’ve got a guy who doesn’t have much in terms of secondary stuff. The curveball was meant to have average potential and wasn’t consistent. The changeup was also supposed to be average. The control was only meant to be average, and he had some issues with his delivery.
This player? Mitch Keller — who is currently having a breakout season in West Virginia just two years later.
Keller’s velocity increased, going from 90-92 and touching 95 in shorter stints, to sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in starts. His curveball has become a plus offering, and the changeup is currently developing. The control has exceeded average, as the Pirates cleaned up his delivery, removing the arm circle and making his delivery more concise.
We could go through and find other players who had similar reports and never made it, but all that would tell us is what we already know, that not all prospects will work out. The lesson we can take from Glasnow and Keller is that you can’t really put a ceiling on guys just coming out of high school. Draft enough of them, and one of them is going to break through and exceed expectations from draft day. That’s why it’s so important that the Pirates sign all four of their prep pitchers in the top 11 rounds, to increase the odds of at least one of those guys breaking through.
Now that the draft is over, it’s time for the development to begin.
Weekly Recap
We normally break down the ten biggest stories of the week on Sunday night, but this week is all about the draft. If you missed the draft coverage, here are the important links to check out:
**First, check out the Draft Pick Signing Tracker, which has links to the player pages of every player picked this week.
**Pirates Add a Big Bat and Two Prep Pitchers on Day One of the 2016 Draft
**Draft Day Two: Pirates Take a Prep Pitcher and Some Lottery Ticket College Players
**Day Three Recap: Why the Pirates Went College Heavy in the 2016 Draft
And now, here are the articles from today:
**Andrew McCutchen’s Struggles Continue as Cardinals Sweep the Pirates. Alan Saunders recaps the latest Pirates loss, noting the struggles of Andrew McCutchen lately.
**No Word on Gerrit Cole, But Jameson Taillon Will Replace Him If He Goes on the DL. Neal Huntington didn’t have an update on Cole, but said that Jameson Taillon would replace him if he does go on the disabled list.
**Pirates Notes: Erik Kratz Starts Today After a Whirlwind Weekend. Who would have thought on Thursday that Erik Kratz would be starting a game for the Pirates by Sunday?
**Prospect Watch: Cody Dickson Continue Recent Success Against League’s Best. John Dreker with the daily recap from the minor league system, including a live report from Indianapolis from Brian Peloza.
**Morning Report: Pirates Took Some Late Round Draft Picks with Upside. John Dreker recaps some of the biggest picks on day three of the draft.
