There has been one thing painfully clear with the Pirates this year — their pitching has been awful.
The Pirates have assembled a strong offense. It’s an offense so strong that it rates near the top of the NL and MLB in WAR, wOBA, wRC+, and more — and that’s all while their star player, Andrew McCutchen, has been struggling. But as strong as the offense has been, the pitching staff has been equally as bad.
The collective group ranks near the bottom of the NL and MLB. This comes a year after they were one of the best groups in baseball. There were some changes over the off-season that led to expected declines. A.J. Burnett retired, and they got two amazing months from J.A. Happ, only to see him walk as a free agent. But those two moves shouldn’t have been enough to take a team from the top of the rankings one year to the bottom the next.
So what happened with the pitching? To get an idea, let’s break things down, looking at the rotation first.
The Starters
Gerrit Cole – 2.77 ERA/4.00 xFIP in 68.1 IP
Francisco Liriano – 4.92 ERA/4.43 xFIP in 67.2 IP
Jon Niese – 4.60 ERA/4.19 xFIP in 76.1 IP
Jeff Locke – 5.38 ERA/5.16 xFIP in 72 IP
Juan Nicasio – 4.50 ERA/4.02 xFIP in 58 IP
The Pirates entered the year with a good looking top of the rotation. They had Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano, who were two of the best starters in baseball last year. Behind those two, their approach in the off-season was questionable. They traded for Jon Niese, which wasn’t a bad move, as Niese has some value with the ability to put up league average numbers and eat innings. But they also signed Ryan Vogelsong, and went with Jeff Locke for the final spots.
When I say that Niese has value, that’s assuming you’re getting his production from the fourth or fifth spot in the rotation. When he’s your number three starter, you’ve got a problem. I wrote many times over the off-season that the Pirates needed to do better than Vogelsong in the rotation. Of course, the guy I suggested was Mat Latos, who now has a 4.62 ERA/5.38 xFIP, and has been released by the White Sox. If the Pirates would have signed him, we’d still be having this same discussion.
Or there’s J.A. Happ, who started great, but now has a 3.70 ERA/4.49 xFIP, with a big decline in strikeouts. He’d improve this rotation, and it’s hard to not get an improvement. But we’d still be having this discussion about how bad the rotation has been.
The Pirates opted to go with Juan Nicasio as their fifth starter, and the move hasn’t been a horrible one. Nicasio doesn’t have the best surface numbers, but his xFIP ranks second in the rotation. I do question whether he can continue this as a starter. He’s a two pitch guy who is very boom or bust, either looking dominant, or like a disaster. He also looks like he’d be a huge upgrade to the bullpen, and I’ll get to that later.
The thing is, the rotation issues should have been solved by now. The prospects should have arrived to fix the holes at the back of the rotation, and we’d be smooth sailing from here. I’d expect Jameson Taillon to come up soon (possibly even Tuesday night) and stay for good this time. Tyler Glasnow and Chad Kuhl have both struggled recently, so I’m not sure either would be ready at this point to upgrade the team.
Niese has improved lately to that pitcher who can post league average numbers and eat innings. There’s no reason to upgrade over him. Looking closer at the numbers, Jeff Locke will be an absolute disaster every so often, but puts up good numbers in his other starts. He can be upgraded over, and in a perfect world you call up prospects to replace him and Nicasio, while getting better production.
Here’s the thing: Even if that happens, the Pirates will have a bad rotation. It’s easy to point to those back of the rotation guys and say they need to be replaced. But the biggest problem with the rotation is that the top of the rotation guys haven’t been anywhere close to expectations. Francisco Liriano has been a disaster, after being such a reliable pitcher the last three years. From 2013-15, he ranked 23rd in xFIP and 28th in fWAR out of 132 qualified starters. He’s been far from that pitcher this year.
Cole has good surface numbers, but hasn’t been the dominant pitcher we’ve seen in the past, with an xFIP that suggests he’ll be league average going forward with these same results. If Jeff Locke had the same stat line, we’d be talking about future regression, rather than praising the ERA and saying Cole is fine. It’s a concern that Cole hasn’t been dominant so far, and while it hasn’t hurt the Pirates, it’s something that could hurt them going forward if there isn’t a change.
Neal Huntington messed up by not adding a better starter than Ryan Vogelsong this off-season. That could have helped this situation. But honestly, the Pirates would still be near the bottom in the majors with their rotation if they added a good starter for their final spot. And even if Taillon comes up and has similar numbers to Cole in 2013, and is followed by Glasnow or Kuhl doing the same thing, this is still going to be a rotation that has some big problems. Those big problems mostly come from the top.
The Relievers
Mark Melancon – 1.71 ERA/4.17 xFIP in 26.1 IP
Tony Watson – 4.00 ERA/4.40 xFIP in 27 IP
Neftali Feliz – 3.80 ERA/3.37 xFIP in 23.2 IP
Jared Hughes – 3.18 ERA/5.94 xFIP in 17 IP
Arquimedes Caminero – 4.66 ERA/5.97 xFIP in 19.1 IP
Ryan Vogelsong – 4.91 ERA/5.69 xFIP in 14.2 IP
While the off-season approach wasn’t a good one for the rotation, it was a good one for the bullpen, at least on paper. They refused to trade Mark Melancon, and brought back the dominant combo of Melancon and Watson to anchor their bullpen. They had Jared Hughes and Arquimedes Caminero returning. They also added a lot of interesting arms, with a lot of hard throwers who could have success. One of those guys was Neftali Feliz, who is having a good season, and has been one of the best relievers for the Pirates this year.
Another guy was Juan Nicasio, and this is where not upgrading over Vogelsong hurts. Nicasio could be a good reliever, able to pitch multiple innings, or just shut down the middle innings one at a time. He could be on par with Feliz, at the least. But by not upgrading the rotation, they weakened their plans in the bullpen, taking Nicasio from that role.
Hughes and Caminero have both struggled, and that has led to the following:
A.J. Schugel – 4.08 ERA/3.52 xFIP in 28.2 IP
Kyle Lobstein – 4.13 ERA/4.85 xFIP in 24 IP
Rob Scahill – 3.38 ERA/3.89 xFIP in 13.1 IP
Wilfredo Boscan – 2.92 ERA/5.21 xFIP in 12.1 IP
Cory Luebke – 8.22 ERA/6.46 xFIP in 7.2 IP
None of these guys project as top relievers, or solutions to the current problem. Schugel and Scahill have been good in small sample sizes, and are good guys to have for the middle relief and long relief roles. Boscan and Luebke have shown some promise, but that hasn’t fully translated over to them being top bullpen options. Going back up to the original list, Ryan Vogelsong hasn’t been a great option either.
The entire middle relief group, outside of Feliz, and a few guys like Schugel and Scahill, who wouldn’t be late inning options, has struggled. That’s a problem. I’m not sure this is an area where we can blame Huntington for his off-season approach, since the bullpen did look like a strength coming into the year. The one area where his off-season approach hurt was the trickle down from the rotation, which removed Nicasio from the bullpen role.
Just like the rotation, the big problem here comes from the top. The Pirates looked like they had a strength with Melancon and Watson, but that hasn’t been the case. Watson has really struggled, and Melancon has good surface numbers, but his xFIP suggests that won’t continue. It’s very similar to the starting situation. Watson is in the Liriano role — a dominant player the last few years who just doesn’t have it this year. Melancon is in the same situation as Cole — not really hurting the Pirates, but not as dominant as he has been in the past, and that will hurt if it continues.
The bullpen could use some middle relief help. Ideally, you’d want someone to lock down the sixth inning, so you could go with that person and Feliz to lead into the eighth and ninth innings. But none of that matters if your late inning guys are struggling.
The Biggest Problem With the Pitching Staff
As I said, there are things that Huntington could have done this off-season to improve this situation. He should have added a better starter than Ryan Vogelsong, and that’s something I said repeatedly since Vogelsong was added.
There could also be improvements coming up with the addition of Jameson Taillon to the rotation, along with the potential for Tyler Glasnow or Chad Kuhl as the season progresses.
But the biggest problems here start at the top. The Pirates would still have a poor pitching staff, even with an upgrade over Vogelsong, and even with the prospects coming in. Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, and Tony Watson were the guys we weren’t supposed to have to worry about. They were going to be the guys who anchored this pitching staff, with Huntington’s additions and the mid-season prospects adding to that.
Instead, Liriano and Watson have been nothing close to what they were in the past. Cole and Melancon are both putting up good ERAs, but the xFIPs show that they’ll struggle as well if they continue pitching like they’re currently pitching. That will only make this situation worse.
The Pirates could use a lot of help. They could use the prospects coming up. They could use a trade to bring in bullpen help, and maybe even rotation help. But the biggest impact would be getting those top four pitchers back on track. Otherwise, the best they can hope for is improving this pitching staff from the bottom of the rankings, to somewhere middle of the pack, if they’re lucky.
**I’m in New York this week, covering the Pirates, and hoping that Jameson Taillon will be up for Tuesday night’s start. I’ll be in Chicago this weekend, giving me six days of coverage of the big league club. Subscribe today to get all of that, plus our usual minor league coverage from all across the system.
**Neal Huntington Discusses Pirates Bullpen Struggles and the Erik Kratz Trade. Alan Saunders has Neal Huntington’s comments from Sunday on the bullpen struggles, and the Erik Kratz trade.
**Prospect Watch: Stephen Tarpley Highlights a Quiet Night in the Minors. Not much action today in the minors. John Dreker breaks it all down.
**Top Performers: Glasnow, Bell, Meadows, Ramirez, Frazier and Polo Highlight Last Week’s Best. John Dreker was nice enough to handle the Top Performers article by himself this week, as I was on an early flight to New York (and then proceeded to take the rest of the day off and go see The Late Show With Stephen Colbert).
**Morning Report: Not a Lot of Early Praise for the Pirates from Draft Experts. John Dreker takes a look at some of the reviews of the draft, noting that the Pirates didn’t get much praise. John pretty much handled most of the articles today, right after being busy with the draft this weekend. On a related note, before I head over to the stadium tomorrow, I’ll be sending John a shipment from Fat Witch Bakery and the Doughnut Plant — two of my favorite places in the city. Fat Witch actually ships, and I recommend them, as they’re the best brownies. My favorites are the Snow Witch and the Caramel Witch.
