Last night I recapped the first half for the Pittsburgh Pirates, noting that their poor off-season approach in terms of pitching fueled some of their problems with the rotation and bullpen struggling. One of the common responses to that was a challenge to name a pitcher who would have helped or upgraded over Ryan Vogelsong.
This response is a bit strange for two reasons. First, I wrote in the article that adding a better pitcher probably still wouldn’t have fully helped. It would have given them a boost, but they’d still have problems. Second, we could play the game of “Who should they have gotten?”, but that takes us down a long, winding path to nowhere. I personally liked Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, J.A. Happ, and a few other options who weren’t saviors. Happ went off the board early, but looked to be the best option they could have realistically had.
But then what if we bring up Rich Hill or Drew Pomeranz, who were both acquired this off-season, and are both valuable trade chips at the deadline? The response, rightfully so, would be that this is using hindsight, and we couldn’t have predicted success from those two in December and January. So wouldn’t it also be unfair to use hindsight to point out poor results from guys who weren’t expected to struggle? I’m not even talking big priced free agents, but guys like Kazmir.
Overall, the point people were making is that the free agent class this past off-season didn’t have a lot of options that would have helped, and as I wrote in the article, no one pitcher was going to solve all of the problems anyway. So I’d agree with that overall point that it would have been difficult for the Pirates to find a good starter in that market. But that doesn’t excuse a bad process.
That said, the first half is over. This entire conversation becomes irrelevant, because we’ve entered a new stage now. The Pirates took their off-season approach because they had a wave of prospects set to arrive at mid-season. They didn’t want to block those prospects for the long-term, and wanted guys who could bridge the gap until the prospects were ready.
Well, they’re 46-43 entering the second half, 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot, and most importantly, the prospects are ready.
Jameson Taillon should return right after the All-Star break. He will be joining Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano. I would expect Jeff Locke to stick in the rotation for as long as he’s pitching well. That leaves one spot for Jon Niese — who has continued his struggles right into the All-Star break, or one of the several prospects pushing from Indianapolis.
No matter what you think about the off-season approach to this point, it’s impossible to ignore that the Pirates planned to eventually turn things over to the prospects. Now is the time to do that.
None of the prospects are close to reaching their upsides, and that shouldn’t be expected of any prospect making the jump to the majors. Tyler Glasnow and Jameson Taillon have top of the rotation potential, but won’t be that this year. Chad Kuhl and Steven Brault have fourth starter potential, and they might actually get close to their upsides, but that’s not going to provide a massive boost to the rotation. But all of those guys have shown good things in their debuts.
Glasnow would be the top choice for a spot in the rotation, with the obvious disclaimer that he’s dealt with a lot of control problems this year, and might be a very risky play. His debut wasn’t the best start, and looked worse due to a home run allowed by Arquimedes Caminero. He didn’t have good command of his curveball, but I liked how he used the pitch early in counts, and relied on it to battle back when the fastball fell behind. The fastball command was better than what he’s shown at times in Triple-A, and if the curveball command improves, he’s got what he needs to pitch in the big leagues this year.
Going with Taillon and Glasnow, and using one of Kuhl or Brault if (or when) Jeff Locke comes back down would be the best approach in the second half. If they don’t turn to the prospects at this point, then what was the point in planning an off-season around those prospects in the first place?
Offensively, the Pirates have already started to turn to the prospects. They’ve got Adam Frazier providing a spark on the bench, and it appears he’s locked down a spot as a utility guy. Josh Bell came up at the end of the first half, and looked great in three plate appearances. He could stay in the big leagues a few more games, and maybe a few weeks if the Pirates get creative. I’ve said that I’d like to see Bell eased in to the starting first base job, but that would be difficult with no spots open on the bench. If John Jaso puts up another month like he did in June, then it would be an easy decision to just go with Bell.
For as bad as the first half looked, the second half looks promising. The offense has been good this year, and is starting to get a boost from the farm system. The bullpen seems to finally be coming together with Juan Nicasio moved to that role, putting everyone else in a role that is better suited for them. The rotation is getting Gerrit Cole back, and the prospects are ready. If nothing else, it’s going to be a fun second half, watching a youth movement that will almost certainly get the Pirates back to the playoffs in future years if it doesn’t work out in 2016. But this team heading into the second half looks a lot better than what we saw in the first half, which is why I wouldn’t rule out the playoffs this year just yet.
**Prospect Watch: Max Kranick Throws Two Shutout Innings in His Pro Debut. I had a live report from the GCL of Max Kranick’s debut, along with video.
**Nick Kingham Won’t Pitch Beyond Five Innings This Year; Jacob Taylor Update. Injury updates today from Pirate City on Nick Kingham, after his latest rehab start, and Jacob Taylor.
**Pirates 11th Rounder Max Kranick Showing Promise With His New Curveball. My feature this morning, looking at the decision to draft Max Kranick, and his new curveball.
**Morning Report: The Differences Between the NYPL and the South Atlantic League. John Dreker looks at the differences between the two leagues, talking with Ty Moore, who played in both this year.
