On the surface, it seems silly to be discussing the Rule 5 draft at the start of July. The event is in December, and players don’t need to be protected until mid-November. The event previously got a lot of hype because of the players the Pirates could potentially add at the top of the draft, although those players didn’t amount to much (Evan Meek was the best of the group), and the last two years the Pirates haven’t even taken a player.

There’s also the aspect of potentially losing prospects, which hasn’t been an issue for the Pirates either in recent years. They left Clay Holmes and Barrett Barnes exposed last year, although neither were drafted by another team. So there hasn’t been much risk of losing guys either.

A big part of that latter point is due to the fact that the Pirates have handled some of their Rule 5 decisions early in the season in previous years. Last year, the Pirates made a few trades and roster moves, sending out Yhonathan Barrios and Adrian Sampson, who both would have been eligible for the draft that off-season. They also added a few players to the 40-man during the season, such as Keon Broxton and Gift Ngoepe. This is where the talk becomes relevant in July.

The Pirates are in an interesting situation this year, in that they might not be buyers. What complicates this more is that they should be buyers in the off-season, as they’d only be out of the mix for one year if they don’t turn this season around. So at some point, we might see them deal some prospects away, although that might not be in the next month, as it was in previous years.

Here are the list of eligible players, with my notes at the bottom of each section.

Previously Eligible

In Our Pre-Season Top 50

Clay Holmes

Barrett Barnes

Jose Osuna

Jin-De Jhang

Carlos Munoz

Others

Stetson Allie

Danny Arribas

Colten Brewer

Jake Burnette

Jason Creasy

Chris Diaz

Elvis Escobar

Edwin Espinal

Dan Gamache

Adrian Grullon

Luis Heredia

Delvin Hiciano

Sam Kennelly

John Kuchno

Jared Lakind

Jhondaniel Medina

Yunior Montero

Tomas Morales

Dovydas Neverauskas

Clario Perez

Cesilio Pimentel

Jose Regalado

Alfredo Reyes

Francis Rodriguez

Henrry Rosario

Casey Sadler

Angel Sanchez

Sandy Santos

Jon Schwind

Rinku Singh

Josh Smith

Julio Vivas

Eric Wood

Notes: Out of the pre-season top 50 group, Clay Holmes is the only player who would be worthy of consideration. I said that last year, but he was coming off Tommy John, and didn’t have many innings, with none above A-ball. He’s starting to perform better lately, and if he continues this, he’ll work himself into the picture.

Jose Osuna just got promoted, although I still don’t see him as an option for the draft, since first basemen rarely get drafted and rarely stick all year when they do get drafted. I’d say the same thing for Edwin Espinal. Even though he’s having a good season in Altoona, he’s unlikely to even be considered here.

There are some relievers having interesting seasons. Jared Lakind is having a great year in Altoona, although I’m not sure he’d be a candidate to be drafted either. Dovydas Neverauskas is now in Triple-A and will pitch in the Future’s Game. In this case, he’s eligible for free agency at the end of the year. Therefore, I could see him actually getting the call to Pittsburgh at some point this season, just to see what they have in him. Either that, or he could be a trade chip, just like they did with Barrios last year, in a similar situation.

Casey Sadler and Angel Sanchez are on the list, although both are eligible for free agency at the end of the year.

First Time Eligible in 2016

In Our Pre-Season Top 50

Steven Brault

Stephen Tarpley

Trevor Williams

Cody Dickson

Wyatt Mathisen

Erich Weiss

Pablo Reyes

Tito Polo

Others

Luis Benitez

Johan De Jesus

Ramon Garcia

Rudy Guzman

Jhoan Herrera

Henry Hirsch

Justin Maffei

Brett McKinney

Luis Perez

Miguel Rosario

Justin Topa

Eduardo Vera

Julian Villamar

David Whitehead

UPDATE: We previously listed Yeudy Garcia and Edgar Santana on this list, but due to corrected signing dates, each player is eligible in 2017.

Notes: Steven Brault and Trevor Williams are obvious choices in the upper levels, and could be added to the 40-man before the season is over. Stephen Tarpley is a high upside lefty who should be protected as well.

The Pirates already added Chad Kuhl and Adam Frazier to the 40-man in recent weeks. They also added Jacob Stallings, who otherwise would have appeared in the “Previously Eligible” section. So this group has already been trimmed down.

The remaining prospect to watch in the lower levels is Tito Polo, who should get protected due to his five tool potential.

The Top Prospects and How to Handle Them

I think the remaining “Must Protect” guys are Brault, Williams, Tarpley, Polo, and Holmes. Those five will almost certainly be in our mid-season top 30 in a few weeks. There are some other interesting names here, such as Dovydas Neverauskas, and so on, but the numbers game might impact their chances of being protected.

One thing to consider is that if the Pirates are sellers this year, they might end up adding some prospects to this list, complicating the situation even more. But I think that they’d eventually deal some prospects in the off-season, since they’ll have some needs at the MLB level, will be in a mode where they can’t have too many prospects blocking the 40-man spots for those off-season additions, and most importantly, they have enough prospects that they can make some moves for short-term help.

For now, we might see some in-season movement with some of these prospects who need to be protected. Some guys might get looks at higher levels to make a better off-season decision. Some guys could get traded. Some could get added to the MLB roster this year, just like Frazier and Kuhl. The Rule 5 status definitely plays a part in these decisions, as we saw with some of the moves last year. Giving an early look at the topic gives us an idea of what to expect in terms of upcoming roster moves, which will most likely be bigger moves than the actual Rule 5 results.

**Prospect Watch: Brault Throws Five Shutout Innings in Second Start Back with Indianapolis. Good to see Brault returning well. It would be nice to see him joining Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl later this season in the majors, even if it’s a smaller role at first like a reliever. Also, big days for Josh Bell and Austin Meadows.

**Giles: Looking at the Effectiveness of Chad Kuhl’s Fastball. Ed Giles takes a detailed look at Chad Kuhl’s sinker, and how it compares to other Pirates pitchers and other starters in the majors.

**Minor Moves: Ed Easley and Jeff Roy Released, Osuna Promotion Made Official. John Dreker breaks down the moves across the system. Not originally in the article since it was announced later, Jorge Rondon has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Indianapolis.

**Four Altoona Curve Named to Eastern League All-Star Game. Two Rule 5 eligible guys on this list in Edwin Espinal and Jared Lakind.

**Morning Report: What to Expect from the Pirates on July 2nd. John Dreker breaks down the upcoming International Signing Period for the Pirates. Players can officially be signed at 12:00 AM Friday night/Saturday morning.

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28 COMMENTS

  1. The list actually isn’t as scary as I thought it was. Especially with some guys that will be leaving free agency anyways. I do think the Pirates will lose someone but it most likely will lose someone that will be a useful player but the list isn’t bad in comparison to the last few years.

  2. All this talk about the roster is great and all, but Tim the 40-man Roster page hasn’t been updated since April. I liked using that page as a reference. Is there any way you guys could get that back up and running with current info? Great article, thanks.

  3. Rule V draft allows prospects that are blocked on their present team to be picked and possibly make another teams roster. I think the players association wants this type of movement, otherwise a player can spend his entire career in one teams minor leagues without ever getting a chance simply because there was no room for him on that teams major league roster.

  4. Nice problem to have. Too many prospects to be able to protect them all. Boy do I miss the “Who the heck are these guys” days…….. 🙂

  5. Speaking of Sampson:

    Injury Report: Adrian Sampson has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with a right flexor bundle strain and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

    He had just made his debut in the majors when this happened.

  6. I never understood the efficacy of the Rule V draft. Basically you take some player from some other team’s A Ball level roster and you have to carry him on the Major League team for the whole year. The player is usually a vestigial appendix at the top level, the last bull pen arm or the last bench player. Good teams can’t afford to waste the spot (see the Pirates in 1991 with Miguel Bautista) and building teams usually have guys closer to the Majors they need to fit it. Remember how scintillating Freddy Garcia’s 57ABs and .140 average were for the Bucs in 1995? Yeah, me neither. And then after that Garcia goes back to the minors anyway. Just don’t get this one.

      • Also I think that this is also one of the “grass is always greener” things that Pirate fans look at with a jaundiced eye because we “never seem to win at it.” Even before Dave Littlefield’s “leaving the candy store unlocked” in 2003, mostly I remember the Bucs losing Bonilla and Bip Roberts in the same draft, while we always seem to end up with Donnie Veal or Freddy Garcia.

    • I think it was meant to prevent good teams from hoarding players that could play for lesser teams. In practice, it seems to harm the players as they basically waste a year in no man’s land.

      • Yeah I have always thought that, also the psychological baggage if you will, going from one year in “The Show” top notch hotels, flying to game, Major LEague groupies for one glorious season, and you know that you really don’t belong there, and then it’s back to the Bus leagues, La Quintas and small town girls.

  7. Assuming the 40-man breaks down evenly, 20 pitchers could be:
    – 5 starters in the Majors (Cole, Liriano, Taillon, Glasnow/Kuhl, and someone with MLB experience like Locke or a free agent)
    – 5 in AAA (Kuhl/Glasnow, Brault, Williams, Kingham, and Holmes)
    – 2 in AA (Tarpley and Garcia)
    – 7 MLB bullpen arms
    – 1 AAA bullpen guy (maybe Neveraskaus or Sadler)

    20 hitters could be:
    – 8 starters (same starting 8 with Bell replacing Jaso)
    – 5 bench pieces (Stewart, Jaso, Frazier, Hanson, and an OF)
    – 6 AAA (Diaz, Stallings, Moroff, Ngoepe, Ramirez, and Garcia/Osuna)
    – 1 AA (Polo)

    • Two good lists, although I wonder how many of the position players mentioned will be protected. Ngoepe, Stallings, Moroff and Garcia/Osuna might be left exposed. Hanson and Jaso might be trade pieces.

        • Stallings could easily be removed from the 40 man. He’s the 4th catcher on the 40 man, with McGuire right on the edge and there’s enough no bat good glove guys catchers out there that can be had for a bag of balls.

  8. After his last two starts, Yeudy seems to be figuring it out and could even get a late AA promo. think he would be at risk for someone (read Brewers) to draft as a reliever. So, I would consider him in the same category as Polo

  9. Talking about the Rule V in July doesn’t seem silly to me. I just asked about it in yesterday’s Jose Osuna article…

    • When I saw the article this morning, I thought about it being great timing, as I was thinking about asking if there was an article coming any time soon.

    • I am sure the Pirates are considering it as they negotiate trades and make roster moves so it is a very valuable article as the trade deadline approaches.

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