On Sunday, I wrapped up my live coverage of Morgantown this year, watching the fifth game of the trip, which gave me a chance to see pretty much everyone on the team. This is my second year in a row making the short-season trip in early August, catching Morgantown, Bristol, and getting another look at West Virginia. It’s fairly late in the year to see these teams, as they’re more than half way through their seasons. The timing is more about convenience — there’s usually a lot going on in late June and throughout July, so August is the safest time to plan additional travel. But the timing of the trip works out for other reasons.
I like seeing the players later in the season, as it allows them to get adjusted to pro ball. The Pirates don’t make any changes to the new draft picks until after the season, at the earliest, but seeing a player in August is much better than seeing him in late June or early July, as he’s not fresh off a break, and just getting acclimated to pro ball.
I was talking with Pirates’ Hitting Coordinator Larry Sutton after Sunday’s game about how he handles seeing the players. That was actually the first time he saw the new draft picks in Morgantown. His reasons for the delay were somewhat similar to mine, with a few specific differences.
“For our young Buccos — this is my third year [as Hitting Coordinator] — I want to give them 100 at-bats before I come in,” Sutton said. “You come in before the season starts, during the mini camp, everyone is rah-rah. It’s great to get to know them a little bit. I want to see what everyday looks like for them after 100 at-bats. Because then you get the true feel. You’re talking to them in the dugout, in the clubhouse. They’re hitting .220 or they’re hitting .320. You get the true kind of person. That’s what I want to gauge before we get into instructional leagues.”
Sutton isn’t coming in to make any changes or to provide instruction. He’s just observing, and most importantly, he’s getting to know the new players.
“Coming in today, introduced myself to the kids, encouraged them to come and say hello to me,” Sutton said on Sunday. “Pretty much everybody did. I don’t have a lot of time getting to know them. Following from afar, watching the video, talking with [Assistant Hitting Coordinator] Andy Barkett — he was in here. So this was my first look. Pretty good first look!”
Sutton was referring to the Black Bears scoring nine runs on 12 hits, giving him a great first live look at the offense.
I started thinking about my first live look at the 2015 draft picks during last year’s trip. This wasn’t the first time I saw the short-season teams, and it wasn’t the first time we’ve covered the short-season teams. I had always placed some small value in the results and the scouting reports I had gathered during those trips, but I talked with a few scouts last year who said they provide almost no value in the early reports, and absolutely no value in the stats.
I think the biggest argument against the stats would be Kevin Newman. He had just a .620 OPS in his time with Morgantown, then was promoted to West Virginia and had a .743 OPS. That went against the scouting report that he was a great hitter. It also went against what I actually saw in a limited view of Newman over a few games last year. Here was the summary of his offensive skills:
What I’ve seen so far has been impressive. He doesn’t swing at bad pitches and makes solid contact with the ball. He’s got plus speed, and the biggest thing that stood out to me is that he’s an all-out player. … My first impression was a good one. He comes across as a smart player who knows his strengths, and isn’t temped to move away from those strengths to try and be something he’s not (a power hitter). As for those strengths, Newman looked much better than his numbers in Morgantown, and the total package of speed, defense, a good approach at the plate, and consistent solid contact should make him an interesting shortstop prospect to watch in the future.
One year later, we know that the numbers from Newman last year meant nothing. He posted a .922 OPS in Bradenton this year, and has a .783 OPS in Altoona so far. He’s made a few minor adjustments, but nothing that would validate any concerns from last year as being legit.
Sutton was in Altoona earlier this year, and talked with Newman about his transition to pro ball last year. The recollection of the conversation from Sutton gives an idea of why you can’t evaluate the numbers of guys coming into pro ball.
“We talked about the grind that they have coming from the draft, and what they did in college was a lot of work to them,” Sutton said, referencing that college teams play only 4-5 times per week. “And then they get signed, and they come into this, and it’s almost a culture shock. They will say it’s not, but it almost is as far as what the work day looks like, doing it every single day. I’m 4-for-4, I’m coming in high the next day, and then all of a sudden I’m 0-for-3. You don’t get that long week in college. Professional baseball, it tests you every single day, and that’s why it’s so important. In our culture, we teach good, bad, and different: Wash it off.”
Despite the lesson we learned from Newman last year, the same concerns came up with Will Craig this year. He had a .540 OPS through his first 89 plate appearances, and despite strong reviews of his hitting ability, there were people writing him off as a bust after one month. He entered tonight with a .904 OPS in his last 91 plate appearances, and extended his hitting streak to 17 games, picking up his production a lot quicker than Newman did. But good or bad, the stats don’t matter. The important thing is that the tools are showing up in the live reports.
But let’s move beyond the stats. How much should those reports be trusted? The reports are entirely what I base my opinion on for lower level players, and I hardly even look at the stats. I can’t tell you right now what the prep pitchers have done in the GCL, but I can give you my reports on their stuff. I wouldn’t know Craig’s numbers if people didn’t make such a big deal about it, and while I can say “.540 OPS in 89 plate appearances” without looking it up, I don’t know what his season total is.
The live reports are much more important, but they’re definitely not set in stone. For example, Sutton isn’t making any changes right now, but might make some adjustments with some players during instructs, or Spring Training next year. Some of those adjustments might stick, and some might not. The same goes with adjustments from Infield Coordinator Gary Green, Pitching Coordinator Scott Mitchell, and every other coordinator in the system.
Tonight I was reminded of how those live reports should be trusted, but definitely shouldn’t be set in stone. First, let’s take a look at Logan Sendelbach. He was the 10th round pick last year, and had a pretty unimpressive season, with a 5.23 ERA in 43 innings. I saw him on July 28th last year, and he was hammered, giving up five runs on ten hits in 3.2 innings. Here was my report from that night:
Tonight he was ranging from 86-92 MPH, and at times had some sink to his four seam fastball, while mixing in his slider often. The fastball can come in on a downward plane and work down in the zone, but he’s not consistent with this approach. When he leaves it up, the pitch doesn’t fool anyone, and gets hit around, which was the case in the first two innings tonight. He did a better job of keeping the ball down in the third inning, but ran into trouble in the fourth, and the damage was increased when Shane Kemp came on and gave up a home run. You can see what the Pirates like about Sendelbach — he’s tall and skinny with a projectable frame, and he already hits 92-93 MPH with occasional downward plane on the pitch (I’m told he was 90-93 in his last start, although the results were horrible). But as the results show, he’s definitely a project.
The results from Sendelbach this year are much better, with a 3.53 ERA in 117.1 innings after tonight’s start. And while his report still isn’t set in stone, the report from tonight highlighted a lot of the positives last year, and showed much more consistency this time around. Here is the report from tonight’s Prospect Watch:
Other than that mistake, Sendelbach was fantastic. He was sitting 88-92 MPH with his fastball, while showing a good slider at 82-84 MPH, and a changeup around 79-80. He went 6.2 innings, giving up just the two runs on six hits, with no walks and seven strikeouts. I talked to a scout who saw him earlier in the year, and said he had a better changeup today than when he saw him earlier.
Last year when I saw Sendelbach, he was mostly flat and didn’t have a lot of movement on his fastball, which led to him giving up a lot of hits. He had some good downward movement on the fastball today, and was commanding the pitch well, setting up his changeup, which was getting a lot of swings and misses. While comparing notes with the scout in attendance, he noted that Sendelbach has to be very fine for his stuff to be effective. That’s true, and for the most part this year, Sendelbach has done this. I’m not sure how this will translate to the upper levels, but he’s definitely improved since I first saw him almost exactly a year ago today, and his tall, projectable frame does leave hope that he’ll add some more velocity, improving his stuff so he has room for error.
Fun coincidence there if you notice the original title in the address: Both Prospect Watch articles were focused on Steven Brault. Last year he was looking to continue his impressive season. This year he was looking to get back on track.
It doesn’t always work out this way. Sometimes you’ll notice something negative about a player, and that will stick around. This was seen with Casey Hughston. I saw him for the first time last year on August 5th, and talked with a scout who compared his body to Brian Giles, but noted that he couldn’t hit anything on the outer half of the plate, while crushing pitches on the inside and only had pull power. That night, he pulled an inside pitch for a home run to right field.
Tonight I noticed the same issues with Hughston. He still couldn’t do anything with pitches on the outer third of the plate, and the opposing pitchers were targeting this, exposing his weakness for three strikeouts. The relievers in the first game didn’t get the message, and his final at-bat resulted in a walk off two run homer to right field on a pitch that was letter high on the inner third of the plate. Hughston’s report wasn’t good, and he hasn’t shown any improvement on that in the last year. But the report was accurate, and remains accurate.
There are also some cases where a report just won’t pan out. Logan Hill was putting up impressive numbers last year in Morgantown, and again, I don’t put stock in the numbers. However, I did like Hill’s build and his approach at the plate. I thought he could be a sleeper, and we ranked him accordingly in the pre-season rankings, putting him 36th overall. The Pirates obviously liked him, skipping him over West Virginia to Bradenton at the start of the year. However, he didn’t show the same good approach at the plate, seeing an increase in strikeouts.
He carried that poor approach down to West Virginia after a demotion, although recently he has turned things around, showing the same approach he showed last year. I saw a good approach tonight, and a different approach than what I saw in Bradenton earlier in the year, although you’d definitely like to see that happen at a higher level, and not after a demotion and after struggling following the demotion.
First impressions are huge, and most people only get the stats to make their impressions. If you subscribe to this site, you get the live scouting reports, although even those don’t tell much for the long-term. The evaluations of the new players can take a lot of patience, which we’ve seen a year after the initial reports of the 2015 draft picks. I’m collecting initial reports of the new draft picks right now, plus the second half changes for West Virginia. Those are good starting points, but a year from now we’re going to be looking back at those reports much differently, with a lot of changes happening in a short time period, both good and bad.
**Tyler Glasnow to Make a Rehab Start in Altoona on Sunday. Exclusive update from Alan Saunders, who was the only one who talked with Glasnow after the game, and found out his rehab start will be on Sunday.
**Gregory Polanco’s Move to the Cleanup Spot Pays Off in Pirates Win. Alan’s recap of the big league win, looking at Gregory Polanco in the cleanup spot, and Chad Kuhl’s solid outing.
**Drew Hutchison Adjusting to the Pirates Organization After the Trade. Brian Peloza talked with Drew Hutchison after the trade, and recapped his first two outings with Indianapolis.
**Stephen Alemais Showing Plus Defense at Shortstop, But Will He Hit? My feature on the third round pick this year, who was extremely impressive defensively, but has some questions with his offense.
**Prospect Watch: Steven Brault Gets Roughed Up; Will Craig Extends Hit Streak. Live reports tonight from Sean McCool in Altoona and from myself in West Virginia.
**Pirates Notes: Kuhl Returns to the Majors, Glasnow Throws a Sim Game. After Kuhl’s start tonight, he could be in the rotation for the rest of the year.
**Morning Report: Morgantown Will be Well Represented During the NYPL All-Star Game. Six players made the All-Star team.
