Today we announced our Breakout Prospect of the Year, which was Mitch Keller (obviously). Eric Wood was the breakout position player, just as I predicted to Sean McCool back in April.

We spend a lot of time covering the lower levels in person, getting multiple looks at players from the day they enter the system, to the point when they break out. In the cases of Keller and Wood, we were watching them and seeing the potential live in the GCL. In Keller’s case, we had two live views in the GCL, as Wilbur Miller and myself both got a chance to see his potential, and it was clear at the time that he was more than just a normal projectable prep pitcher, and better than a second round pick. In Eric Wood’s case, every time I was asked why the Pirates kept giving him playing time, I thought back to one of Wilbur’s reports in 2012 from the GCL, when opposing scouts were raving about his power potential and hitting ability (with the Pirates also liking that, and waiting for it to finally develop).

In a few years, we’ll be looking back to the reports from the lower levels this year. But why wait? Here is a list of ten prospects in the lower levels who could be breakout candidates next year. I’m splitting the group up into five players who could be in the full-season A-ball levels, and five players who will likely be in the short-season levels.

Bradenton/West Virginia

Stephen Alemais – He’s got some of the best defense at shortstop in the system. His offense hasn’t matched the defense, although some of that could be due to a shoulder injury. If he starts hitting, even if it’s just singles and doubles, then he could emerge as a very promising shortstop prospect with a better shot than most at sticking at the position.

Luis Escobar – The Pirates have had some promising starters come through the lower levels in recent years, and Escobar is just another one of them. He was hitting 97 MPH with his fastball this year, although he needs better command and improved secondary stuff. He’s still young, at age 20, and turning 21 next May. He should be the top pitcher to watch in West Virginia.

Adrian Valerio – He’s similar to Alemais in tools and upside, except Valerio is a bit more inconsistent, and tends to not have complete control over his tools on the field or at the plate. The thing about breakout players is that they tend to be like Valerio, showing the tools, but lacking consistency until it all finally comes together. I think he’s got a better chance than most of that happening, if not next year, then in the future.

Cam Vieaux – Vieaux doesn’t have a big upside, but could have a Brandon Waddell type season next year. I don’t expect him to make the jump to Altoona by May 2017, but I do expect he will make the jump to Bradenton to start the 2017 season, and could end up in Altoona for the second half of the season. His upside would be more a back of the rotation starter or a reliever, but he’s polished enough that he could move quickly through the lower levels, and jump on the radar as future MLB help sooner than most guys in short-season.

Victor Fernandez – He had a nice season in Bristol, posting an .832 OPS in 169 at-bats. Fernandez has some speed and can be a bit of a playmaker at times. He’s not a complete five tool guy, but he has some tools to work with, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the push to West Virginia next year. Just like Vieaux, I don’t think there’s a huge breakout potential here. I do think he could emerge as a top 50 prospect by the end of next year.

Short Season

Braeden Ogle – The prep lefty from the 2016 draft has shown the best stuff so far from his draft group, sitting consistently in the 93-96 MPH range. He lacks control, and doesn’t hold his velocity. He also needs to show continued improvements with his new slider. The thing about Ogle and the other prep pitchers is that they might not break out in 2017. Mitch Keller didn’t break out until his second full season, and that was early. That would mean 2018 is more likely for a breakout season for Ogle and the rest of the prep pitchers.

Max Kranick – He doesn’t have as consistent velocity as Ogle does, but that could come in the future as he grows into his projectable frame. What Kranick does have is better command of his stuff, and a good downward angle on his fastball. He’s developing an out pitch, and needs work there. He and Ogle lead the prep pitching class, with Travis MacGregor and Austin Shields joining the group, but just a bit more raw in their own ways.

Yondry Contreras – Contreras has some alarming signs, with a high strikeout rate and a low walk rate. He hasn’t hit for much power, but does make solid contact. If he can ever put it all together, he’s a very toolsy guy with the range and arm strength to play center field, and the ability to hit for power and add some speed. I have a feeling strikeouts and walks will always be somewhat of a problem, but Contreras can work his way to being a prospect even with those issues.

Edison Lantigua – He’s had some decent numbers in his pro career, but his playing time has been somewhat shortened by injuries. He’s another toolsy outfielder who actually does a good job of drawing walks and getting on base, while posting a decent strikeout rate. He’s got some power potential and the ability for speed. Lantigua doesn’t have any tools that really stand out as potentially plus, but does enough things well or potentially well that he’s a good all-around outfield prospect.

Jeremias Portorreal – This is my early sleeper pick for the 2017 season, and I’m looking forward to seeing how he does in Spring Training next year, and where he ends up (I wouldn’t be surprised with West Virginia). He made an adjustment to drop his hands down in the DSL in mid-July. Since that adjustment, he hit for a .303/.415/.455 line with a 15.3% walk rate and a 12.7% strikeout rate. His at-bats in the GCL looked good after being promoted, and I could see this new approach being the spark needed to unlock his offensive potential, with the ability to hit for average, power, and have great control of the strike zone, while adding some speed from a tall, skinny frame.

**The World Baseball Classic qualifiers begin tomorrow. Here is a preview from John Dreker on the Pirates prospects that will be playing.

The final World Baseball Classic qualifier begins on Thursday, with teams representing Great Britain, Israel, Pakistan and Brazil all vying for the last spot in the 2017 World Baseball Classic. The Pittsburgh Pirates have two players in the qualifiers. Relief pitcher Jared Lakind will be on Israel, while infielder Kyle Simmons will play for Great Britain. At 7:00 PM, these two teams will play against each. While their opponents haven’t been decided yet, Israel will play at noon on Friday and Great Britain will play at 7:00 PM on Friday night. The remaining schedule for Saturday and Sunday will be decided based on the results over the next two days. You can follow along with the action here. We will also post any Pirates related updates here.

Lakind pitched for Altoona this season, where he had a 2.59 ERA in 66 innings over 47 appearances. He had 62 strikeouts, a 1.18 WHIP and a .216 BAA. The Pirates fast-tracked him to Altoona this season, skipping him over Bradenton. The 24-year-old lefty was drafted in the 23rd round in 2010, signing for a $400,000 bonus, and he spent his first three seasons as a first baseman before switching to the mound in 2013. He is eligible for minor league free agency after the Major League playoffs end, so the Pirates will need to re-sign him or add him to the 40-man roster to keep him around. Lakind was hitting 94 MPH late in the season and has some deception to his delivery, which made him very tough on left-handed batters.

Simmons was one of two players signed out of the Bahamas last July. He is a 19-year-old middle infielder, who was one of the rare July 2nd international signings who actually played pro ball the same year he signed. Most players signed on July 2nd (or later), sign for the following season. Simmons can play shortstop, but he played 40 of his 42 games this season in the Dominican Summer League at second base. He hit .160/.402/.170, walking twice as many times as he got on base via hit (30 to 15). He also struck out 42 times in 94 at-bats, so more than half of his plate appearances ended with a strikeout or walk. If he does play, which he should get into at least one game, it will give you a rare chance to see a DSL player before he makes the jump to the United States.

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28 COMMENTS

  1. It’s true that Tim Williams can be a bit overly optimistic about the Pirates minor leaguers. Personally, I like that. But for those “woe is me with the Pirates” crowd, consider this: Indy was conquering the INT League before losing their entire starting pitching staff & Josh Bell to Pittsburgh; Altoona finished high and made the playoffs (again!); Bradenton won the Fla State League championship; the West Virginia Power did ok and ditto the NY Penn League Morgantown bunch, who salvaged their season at .500 after a horrible two week start in June. In essence, none of the top five teams sank their Pirates ships this season.

    All of this with YOUNG players; no more old vets such as Littlefield faked it with. Says something positive about the Pirates system, even if there are no more high profile, high draft choice Garret Cole’s coming along.

  2. OT but I’m guessing we should be preparing to write Alan Hanson’s obituary? He is out of options correct? The fact they refuse to play him tells me they just don’t think he’s very good. And who knows, they just might be right. Him butchering that bunt didn’t help his cause either.

    This is a guy that had a lot of helium. Still pisses me off we didn’t use someone like him to upgrade in 2014 when the division was there for the taking.

      • I don’t know… going through a 2014 Baseball America pretty damn depressing. Alen Hanson rated 55 Medium and a higher grade than Stephen Piscotty 55 HIGH(risk).

        Of course Piscotty turns out to be absolute stud and Hanson is now basically worthless.

        • Just wondering if with his discipline issues that he had in the past kept his trade value down. Who knows what was circulating about him in 2014 and other backed off of him. Just guessing here with no back up.

  3. Hate to change the subject, but did I miss some news here in Singapore about Marte?? Will he play again in 2016, sorry if the answer is known but I have no idea, hence the question…

  4. I hope you are correct about the potential of the international outfielders. I have been very disappointed in them but do not want to see them fail. They all seem to lack the ability to hit. Maybe with another year in the states that will change and they will all improve. Is there another Polo in the group, I hope so.

    What about Michael De La Cruz. He has taken a few steps back but two years ago he was the man to make it?

  5. Every system has these type of guys, of course…. at least as baseball fans of the PBC we know where to go to learn more about them, good stuff PP. Thanks…

  6. Holy hell that is an uninspiring list. Ogle most interesting to me.

    When meadows and Newman graduate it will be keller and not much else in this system.

    They better wake up and find a way to get some international talent and I’m not talking guys like contreras

    • That is why they are called breakout candidates. Unless it is a top ten draft pick, most fans never hear about a prospect until they do break out.

    • Here’s another breakout guy I forgot about:

      A tall, skinny outfielder who has shown five tool potential, with good K/BB ratios, but only had a .694 OPS in his second year in the GCL. He’s still only 20, and things could finally click for him, if not next year, then definitely in the next few years. I wouldn’t put a ceiling on him right now, but there are a lot of tools at work, and a lot of upside if everything does work out.

      There’s also another young pitcher I forgot to mention who is a year removed from being drafted out of high school. He has a tall, projectable frame, and added some velocity by the end of the year, hitting 96 MPH pretty consistently. He struck out over a batter an inning in the GCL this year, but had some pretty bad control problems. His frame, newly added velocity, and the ability to get strikeouts with his curveball could make him a pitcher to watch.

      Those guys probably don’t sound that inspiring either. But that’s what I would have written (and basically did write something similar, since I lifted notes from the writings) about Gregory Polanco and Tyler Glasnow prior to their breakout seasons.

      • Funny too, many were complaining that the Pirates threw money away on Mr. Polanco when they extended him finally this past April. he was horrible on the bases, lousy at the plate….. Oops! Great thing for the Pirates is he still has a ton of room for improvement. He could be scary good if he reaches his full potential over the next few years. Hopefully Glasnow reaches his potential too. Fun times raising quality players down on the farm!

      • LOL I knew that response was coming. Portoreall is semi interesting. I would bet my house Contreras amounts to nothing. Don’t hold your breath on any of these guys breaking out like Glasnow or Polanco.

        Tell NH to start spending some money Internationally. Gayo digging up Polanco and Marte for peanuts was a looooooooong time ago in baseball years.

        But the fact remains- the talent is very thin in this system once you get past the front end names. I’ve heard as much from people who watch these guys very closely.

        • “But the fact remains- the talent is very thin in this system once you get past the front end names. I’ve heard as much from people who watch these guys very closely.”

          That’s actually not a fact, and that’s coming from someone who watches this system closer than anyone.

          • I trust you and your staffs appraisals of the prospects more than most as most never see these guys play and only look at stat lines. You guys know and see that the coaching staffs work with prospects to improve their overall games and not worry so much about stats when they are developing these guys, ie having a pitcher work on throwing a certain pitch to improve it. They throw the pitch more often than what they normally would be doing in a game that they worried about winning. The opposing batters see it and sit on it and of course they hit it. It doesn’t really matter if they hit it. I matters that the guy can learn to throw it and put it where he wants it to go.

          • Where do you think this system will rate 2 years from now? With the understanding that we don’t know who they will draft or trade for but a lot of that ranking will be dependent on the development of guys already within the system. And since you argue that our future is very bright I assume you don’t think we will be drafting very high either. So where do you ballpark this system in 2 years as far as a ranking.

            • No clue. Two years from now they will have two more drafts to add to the system. Two more years for the lower level guys to develop. Two more years for trades to add prospects to the system.

              I mean, two years ago at this time people were wondering why Adam Frazier kept getting playing time in Bradenton. Kevin Newman wasn’t even in the system. Mitch Keller was just a high upside pitcher who barely made the top 10, all on his potential. Trevor Williams had just finished his pro debut in the Marlins’ system. Steven Brault was with the Orioles. So much can happen in that amount of time that it’s impossible to give an accurate answer.

              They keep going for high upside guys. That’s a good recipe for future breakouts, and a system that will remain strong in the future.

  7. Matt Eckelman or Travis MacGregor? Eckelman is “old” at 22 for Bristol, but it was his draft year and he made the most of it. Interesting to see where the Pirates start him next year. TMac is only 18 and did very well in the GCL. How about the young LHSP from the DSL – is his name Sanchez?

    Wood had a nice year, although it was his second full year at AA. Hard for me to see “breakout prospect” candidacy from a 23 year old who is almost through the system, and batted only .249. He reduced his E’s at 3B from 21 in 2015 to 14 in 2016 which is good, but his RF went down again in 2016.

  8. Tim, do you think there will be room for Vieaux or any other pitcher to make the jump to Bradenton this year? I know the Pirates have been in the habit of skipping at least one college pitcher a year over West Virginia but right now I count Keller, Hinz and Hearns as locks for the Bradenton rotation to start the year with Logan S. and Agrazal nears locks for the other two spots. Would you pick Vieaux over any of these 5 guys at this juncture.

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