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First Pitch: Evaluating the Performance of the Pirates Top 20 Prospects in 2016

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Today was the end of the 2016 minor league season. There will still be some action in the Pirates’ system, as Altoona and Bradenton are in the playoffs. Following that, we will have coverage of the Fall Instructional League, and the Arizona Fall League. So while the official season is over, there’s still about two months of coverage, not to mention the two additional months of Winter League coverage. What I’m saying is that it doesn’t really end.

The end of the season does provide a good chance to look back and see which players improved and which players dropped down. The Pirates actually had very few players drop down in their rankings this year, and while they didn’t have a lot of big improvements, they did have some good stories. The thing about prospect evaluations is that sometimes a player holding his value is fine, and sometimes a slight drop is only a short-term thing. The Pirates didn’t have many long-term drops in value out of the players who dropped, and the players holding their values continued showing why they’re top prospects.

To get an idea of how the system performed, here was our pre-season top 20 prospect list, along with an evaluation of each player, the season they had, and how much they moved up or down by the end of the year.

20. Willy Garcia, RF – Garcia’s career has kind of stalled in Triple-A. He’s still not hitting for average, not drawing walks, striking out too much, and his power was down this year. He’ll only be in his age 24 season next year, so he could still figure it out, but we’re getting past the point where you can overlook his issues and hope he’ll fix them later, even to just become a solid fourth outfielder.

19. Clay Holmes, RHP – Holmes showed that the road back from Tommy John isn’t always easy. He struggled at the start of the year, and wasn’t really dominant for the first two months. From there, he started performing better, and was much more dominant, while also looking more consistent. The walks are still an issue at times, but he’s back to looking like a future MLB starter. He didn’t exactly move up, but he didn’t move down either.

18. Mitch Keller, RHP – Keller might be the biggest mover on the list. I’m sure there are players that started outside of the top 50 who will move more spots, but Keller went from a mid-tier prospect to one of the top prospects in the system. We had him as a top ten guy after his draft in 2014, but he dropped last year due to injury concerns and continued command issues. He’s answered both of those issues in a big way, and soared up these rankings, looking like a future top of the rotation starter.

17. Max Moroff, 2B – Moroff can get too selective at times, leading to a low average, high OBP, and some decent power that won’t be repeatable in the majors. When he’s a bit more aggressive, you see results like he put up in Altoona in 2015. When he’s more selective, you see results like this year, where his numbers drop, and he doesn’t look like a great option for the majors. He didn’t exactly move up or down, and his upside is still a utility infielder, but he needs to be more aggressive for that to happen.

16. Chad Kuhl, RHP – Kuhl had a rough start on Monday, but has largely shown he belongs in a major league rotation. He still hasn’t reached his upside, to the point where starts like today will still happen. But he’s a guy who will be a number four starter in the majors, and could tick up from there if his secondary stuff continues improving like it improved this year. Prior to the season, I felt we may have had Kuhl ranked too low, since he should have been at least ahead of Steven Brault, and maybe a bit higher. He moved up in our mid-season rankings.

15. Cole Tucker, SS – Tucker is a case where you have to consider the age. If he stayed in West Virginia all year, he would have much better numbers, and would still be young for his level. When he was in Bradenton, he showed some promise, with a good approach at the plate, and the ability to barrel up on some balls, although he lacked consistency, which is what you’d expect from a younger player. He’s a guy who didn’t soar up like Keller, but he didn’t drop because he’s still being graded on potential rather than results. He also returned healthy and able to play shortstop, so he did tick up from our pre-season rankings.

14. Stephen Tarpley, LHP – Tarpley is no longer in the system after being part of the Ivan Nova trade. If he was still in the system, he would have ranked outside of the top 20, due to command issues this year. It wasn’t a big drop, and wasn’t irreversible, but did bump him down a bit.

13. Steven Brault, LHP – Brault did what was expected of him. After a big breakout last year, he posted good numbers in Triple-A, and while he hasn’t quite adjusted to the majors yet, he’s got the upside of a back of the rotation starter. He could factor in the rotation mix next year, but will probably be better working as rotation depth out of Triple-A.

12. Yeudy Garcia, RHP – Garcia struggled with his command throughout the year, but did make some strides with his changeup. He improved with the command in the second half, but still had some occasional lapses. The secondary improvements were good, and his fastball is still electric when it’s on. He didn’t move up much, and mostly stayed in the same range, which isn’t a bad thing for now.

11. Kevin Newman, SS – Heading into the year, the thought on Newman was that he could be a starting shortstop, or he could end up a utility player, with scouts pretty divided on the idea. After his big season on offense in Bradenton and Altoona, he’s now trending more towards being a future starter. That could even happen as early as next summer, although 2018 would be a more conservative bet. He took a jump into the top five after looking more like a future starter than a utility player.

10. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B – Hayes is this year’s version of Tucker last year. He’s very young, and had an aggressive promotion to West Virginia. He had some injury concerns, but nothing that would impact him long-term. He showed some promise in his brief time when healthy in West Virginia. Some mid-season rankings boosted him up to the top five in the system and a top 100 prospect due to the first half, and that’s a bit aggressive, but might not be wrong in the long run. I’d say he’s still around the same area that he was last year, not moving up or dropping down.

9. Nick Kingham, RHP – Kingham returned from Tommy John surgery this year, and his value didn’t change much, since it’s still based on his pre-surgery value. That’s good, as the only big concern would be that he wouldn’t return with his old stuff and the value would drop. That didn’t happen, which means he will now be on the Jameson Taillon path, getting adjusted to Triple-A next year, and becoming a second half option for the MLB rotation.

8. Elias Diaz, C – Diaz had a lot of injuries this year, although none of them really set his progress or upside back. The Pirates extended Francisco Cervelli, which blocks Diaz for a few years outside of injuries. But the rankings are based on upside, and not the role with the Pirates, so Diaz didn’t really see much of a drop in value.

7. Reese McGuire, C – McGuire was traded to Toronto. He did drop from this value in a lot of rankings, and I personally argued to keep him up higher, for the same arguments I made about Cole Tucker and age above.

6. Harold Ramirez, OF – Ramirez was also traded to Toronto. He fell in value a bit before the trade, due to concerns about his lack of power and his frame and the potential for future conditioning issues limiting him to being a singles hitter with no speed.

5. Alen Hanson, 2B – Hanson might be the guy who saw the biggest drop in value, and one of the few guys who saw a drop. He’s still a prospect, and still could be a starter in the future, but he’s looking more likely to be a super utility player, with the shot at being an average starter at best, due to continued consistency issues.

4. Jameson Taillon, RHP – Taillon returned about as good as you could hope for, both in terms of his Tommy John recovery, and in terms of his MLB debut. He’s not a prospect right now, but if you were doing a 25-and-under list, he might be ahead of everyone else on this list (don’t ask me where the other MLB players would fall).

3. Josh Bell, 1B – Heading into the year, the big questions about Bell were whether the offense would pick up and add some power, and whether the defense would improve. The offense really picked up due to his leg kick, and while the defense did improve, it hasn’t improved at a rate fast enough to where he is anything close to a good defender. There is still time for that to happen, but overall he took a good step forward with the offense, and a small step on defense.

2. Austin Meadows, OF – Just like Bell, the big question here was whether Meadows would hit for power. He also showed improvements, and the Pirates responded by promoting him from Altoona quicker than any other big hitting prospect they had at the level in the past. It’s hard for him to move up, but he did start making the switch from being ranked high due to potential, to being ranked high due to present results and abilities.

1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP – Glasnow is an interesting case. He didn’t make the jump to the majors like Taillon and Kuhl, to the point where he’s now locked in to the rotation. That’s because his command still had issues, and his secondary stuff didn’t improve. He’s still young enough that he could spend more time in Triple-A and still be a top prospect. That said, it does feel like a wasted year that he didn’t make more of an effort to really try and improve the changeup. His upside didn’t drop, and he’s not going to fall in the rankings, but that could happen if he doesn’t show improvements in the future.

**Kang, Like the Pirates, Hoping to Rescue Season in September. Today’s game recap, along with a look at Jung Ho Kang’s return, and how both the Pirates and Kang are hoping to turn things around this month.

**Who Is Next For the Pirates’ September Call-Ups? Alan Saunders breaks down what is next with the September call-ups now that the minor league seasons are coming to an end.

**Pirates Notes: How Jung Ho Kang Will Be Used After His Return. Alan Saunders wrote about how Kang will be used now that he’s back.

**Prospect Watch: Altoona Clinches Playoff Spot with Extra Innings Win. Altoona clinched the post-season today, which should provide for some valuable post-season experience for the young prospects at the level.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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