I talked a lot about Tony Watson on Twitter tonight, and Alan Saunders had an article on him after the game, so if you’re looking for that topic, check out Alan’s article. Instead, I want to discuss something bigger than Watson. That would be the current state of the Pirates, and what they decide to do with the rest of their season.
All year, the Pirates have been an inconsistent team, hovering around .500 at various points in the year, and after an eight game losing streak, they find themselves below .500 for the first time since July 2nd, and for the first time this late in the season since 2011. They are currently 5.5 games out of the second Wild Card race, trailing the Mets and the Cardinals. They still have four more games against the Cardinals, plus four against the Cubs, which doesn’t make coming back easier. And they only have a little less than a month to make a comeback.
Their best player, Andrew McCutchen, has struggled all year. Their best starting pitcher, Gerrit Cole, returns from an injury on Monday, and hasn’t been pitching like he did last year, although his performance still hasn’t been bad. Their best reliever, Tony Watson, hasn’t looked like the same reliever they saw in 2014-15, even before he became the closer.
In short, things don’t look good right now.
The season for the Pirates is basically over. They have a short amount of time remaining. They have a lot of prospects up in the big leagues. They can compete in 2017, especially with some key off-season moves. But how they spend their final month of the season could impact how they perform next year.
If they spend the rest of this season trying to go for the playoffs, they might have a small chance at staging a comeback. Maybe they actually win the Wild Card game. But this is not a team that will advance beyond that. And taking an “anything can happen” approach is banking on a lot of small percentage odds working in their favor, which isn’t a wise approach.
Instead, they’d be better off preparing for the 2017 season. At the trade deadline, they made moves to help themselves in 2016, while also making moves with an eye to the future. They didn’t go all-in, but they didn’t totally give up. I suggest the same approach now. Don’t necessarily give up, but give the prospects a shot, and see if you can make a comeback with them. Here are the big keys to this.
1. Play Josh Bell
John Jaso’s defense is better than Bell’s, but Bell is a better overall player than Jaso right now. At this point, the Pirates should be playing Bell as the starter in every game. This is actually becoming less a move for the future, and more a move for now. But there’s no reason Jaso should be starting a game right now.
2. Make Tyler Glasnow and Drew Hutchison Starters
I don’t really like the idea of Glasnow up in the majors right now. It’s a huge waste of service time, in a year where he’s already wasted service time. He doesn’t have consistent command right now, doesn’t have a third pitch, and his fastball still has control issues. Maybe there’s a chance he figures it out in the majors. I don’t think that’s the case. But if you’re going to call him up, then might as well give him starts and let him work through his issues, rather than using him as a reliever.
It really doesn’t matter at this point whether Hutchison is up, since he has the same amount of service time at this point (three more years). However, they added him for the future rotation, and he’s almost like the reclamation project for the 2017 season. I don’t expect immediate results. But how valuable is this time for him, getting him work in real games at the major league level? Most of their reclamation projects in the past have only had the duration of Spring Training. Hutchison could get a month of starts, plus an off-season working with Ray Searage on the work that was started during the season, and then the time in Spring Training. That gives him the best chance of working out next year.
As for who would be removed from the rotation, I think both of these guys have a better shot at helping the team in 2017 than Steven Brault, although Brault will probably be removed when Gerrit Cole returns. Ryan Vogelsong is another candidate to be removed from the rotation, since he won’t be around in 2017. I’d say Ivan Nova as well, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea to keep giving him work in hopes of re-signing him in the off-season.
And then there’s this next guy…
3. Shut Jameson Taillon Down
Or at least greatly reduce his workload. The Pirates are already planning this somewhat, which means we’ll see Glasnow and/or Hutchison in the rotation at some point. Their goal this year has been to reduce Taillon’s workload so that he can pitch into October. That’s not going to be happening, and it would be better to save him for 2017 and beyond. Give him a break and give more starts to Glasnow/Hutchison to get them prepared for next season.
4. Play the Younger Players
At this point, I’d say that Adam Frazier has a bench spot pretty much locked up for the start of the 2017 season. But what about Alen Hanson? He’s out of options next year, and has to be in the majors. He has five plate appearances so far, and has been mostly a bench guy in a limited role. This is the time to get him some experience and get him ready for a bench role next year.
He has been prepped as a super utility player in Triple-A, so these starts can come at second base, in the outfield, or other positions. I’d probably limit it to second and left field when one of the outfielders needs a break.
5. Give Some Innings to the Younger Pitchers
In the minor leagues, teams will piggyback pitchers when there are too many starting pitching candidates on the same team. This means that one pitcher will come in for five innings, and the other pitcher will be scheduled to take over in the sixth inning and pitch the final 3/4 innings. This is much easier to do in the minors, where the results don’t matter. Not that they really matter at this point for the Pirates, but you’d have to take a different approach.
I think Glasnow and Hutchison should get starts, but what about innings for Trevor Williams and Steven Brault? Give them multiple inning relief roles. Jeff Locke won’t be here next year, so there’s no use giving him innings. Jared Hughes has struggled. Neftali Feliz is hurting. These are all cases where I’d rather see Williams and Brault getting some innings while they’re up, rather than giving innings to pitchers who are struggling, hurt, probably won’t be here next year, or some combination of that group.
These ideas aren’t going to be popular, and will spark the complaints that the Pirates are throwing in the towel, giving up on the year, fire Hurdle, fire Huntington, the off-season was horrible, the trade deadline was a mistake, Nutting is cheap, and so on. But this is the reality. The season is essentially over for the Pirates. It’s time to start preparing for the 2017 season.
Of course, I don’t think they will actually take this approach, since teams don’t give up as easily as writers who are taking a realistic viewpoint with no emotional attachments toward the current season or the entire situation. That would be a shame if they don’t take advantage of this situation.
**Tony Watson’s Struggles Lead to Pirates Losing 9-7 to Cardinals. Alan Saunders digs deeper into Watson’s struggles.
**Prospect Watch: Bradenton Wins Game One of the Playoffs 11-6 Behind Two Big Innings. The Marauders win game one of their playoff series, and could advance to the finals if they win at home tomorrow with JT Brubaker on the mound.
**Pirates Notes: Glasnow, Hutchison, and Williams Will Be Used Out of the Bullpen. Alan Saunders breaks down how the Pirates will use today’s call-ups.
**Mitch Keller is the Pirates Prospects Pitcher of the Month for August. Surprisingly this was the first time he’s won this year. He had a pretty special month, capping off a special year.
**Barrett Barnes is the Pirates Prospects Player of the Month for August. Barnes wins the award for the second month in a row. You’ve got to think that he will be added to the 40-man roster this off-season.
**The Twenty: Taylor Hearn and Jordan Luplow Led the System This Week. The final edition of this feature of the 2016 season. It has a lot of good info and live reports from the final week of the regular season.
