It would probably be an understatement to say that Andrew McCutchen had a down year. Statistically speaking, he had the worst year of his career, and it wasn’t even close. On the season, McCutchen posted his career worst totals in average, OBP, slugging, walk rate, strikeout rate, wOBA, wRC+, and had his second lowest isolated power.
In 2015, McCutchen had what would have been normally considered a “down year” for him, and he ended up with a 5.8 fWAR. He put up numbers that most players would kill for, despite starting the season slow. This time around, his slow start turned into a bad four months. His numbers at the end of the 2016 season actually look better, only because McCutchen returned to his old self the final two months of the season.
The stats during the first four months of the year were just abysmal. McCutchen combined for a .241/.311/.408 line, a .308 wOBA, and a 92 wRC+ through the end of July. He was striking out 24.8% of the time, and walking 8.1% of the time. To put his numbers in perspective, Josh Harrison had a .301 wOBA and an 87 wRC+, while Jordy Mercer had a .304 wOBA and an 89 wRC+. Through the first four months of the season, McCutchen was barely out-hitting guys who ranked in the bottom third of offense at second base and shortstop.
McCutchen was benched at the start of August, giving him a break due to his slump. It’s hard to say if that did the trick, but the numbers the final two months were a little closer to the normal version of Andrew McCutchen. He had a .284/.381/.471 line, along with a .365 wOBA and a 131 wRC+. His strikeout rate was back down to 14.8% and his walk rate was 13.9%. These were all getting closer to his career totals, although still falling a bit shy of his 2012-2015 numbers that made him an MVP candidate.
The hope is that the offense has actually returned, and won’t be an issue for McCutchen going forward. He struggled in 2015, and heading into the 2016 season he revealed that his knee was bothering him the first few months of the season. That wasn’t a huge surprise, since it was something being downplayed throughout the year. I wouldn’t be surprised if we learn next year that his thumb played a big role in the down months on offense through July. You hope that he stays healthy, although he’s now entering his age 30 season, so six months of health shouldn’t be a guarantee. Still, he had a 5.5 fWAR or better in each of the last five years, and I could see him bouncing back to the offense that led to those numbers.
The one area where I question his future contributions would be on defense. McCutchen has never really been a good defender, with a -6.6 UZR/160 in center field. He hit his way to a Gold Glove one year, but he’s been the third best center field option in Pittsburgh since Gregory Polanco and Starling Marte arrived. This year, things got worse, as he had a -23.2 UZR/150 and a -28 Defensive Runs Saved total.
The thing about defensive metrics is that one year doesn’t make a player. It’s the same as any metric. A guy can hit .300 in a single season, but that doesn’t make him a .300 hitter. If he hits .300 consistently, year after year, then you’d call him a .300 hitter. McCutchen was the worst center fielder in baseball this year, but I’m not sure I’d say he’s going to be the worst going forward, just off the one year totals. That said, there are some concerns when you dig deeper into his numbers.
First of all, the big drop in UZR this year came due to a decline in his range. He had positive range totals in 2011 and 2013. He dropped down to the negative side in 2014 and 2015. However, he went to a career worst in 2016, dropping from -4.3 to -18.3. He made plays at a .905 rate in his zone, which is a number that has declined every year since 2013.
Another area where he’s seen a similar decline would be on offense, with his stolen bases. In 2013, he stole 27 bases in 37 attempts. The next year he dropped down to 18 in 21 attempts. That dropped further to 11 in 16 attempts in 2015. This year, he fell to 6 in 13 attempts, dropping below a 50% success rate. I could see an argument that he wouldn’t be expected to steal as much after moving to the third spot in the batting order. But you’d think his efficiency would still translate over to the lower numbers. His stolen base ability has been on a steady decline, and got to the point where he isn’t even a stolen base threat any more. He’s also dropped to negative value in base running runs the last two years, and has dropped from 6.2 to -3.0 from 2013 to 2016.
I wrote about all of this last year, pointing out that Andrew McCutchen could still hit, but lost the speed aspect of his game, turning him into a different player. The difference between 2013 and 2016 in base running runs is 9.2 runs, which is almost a full win. The difference in his fielding between those two years is 25.6 runs, which is about two and a half wins. Just by losing his speed, McCutchen lost about three and a half wins off his game this year. And while one year doesn’t make a career, the steady trends over the last few years suggest that he’s not going to bounce back from this decline.
The Future
The Pirates haven’t moved on from Andrew McCutchen in center field, mostly because they’re letting him make the call on when the right time to move would be. I think that’s a mistake. There aren’t really any good places to put McCutchen — left field at PNC Park requires the same range, and he doesn’t have the arm for right field — but I think his declining speed and range at this point takes more away in center and left than his weak arm would in right. But all of that is moot, because McCutchen hasn’t indicated that he thinks it’s the right time to move.
That decision needs to be taken out of his hands. McCutchen is a star player, and a star player isn’t going to doubt his abilities or remove himself from a key role. You really don’t want that type of mentality in your star players. That’s why the team needs to be in control. Just think what might have happened this year if they benched McCutchen much sooner, or even put him on the disabled list when he was dealing with a swollen thumb. They can’t trust him to make the right call, because his call will always be to play and to play an important position. That’s what you want to see from him, but the team has to decide if it’s the right call to make, and act accordingly if it isn’t.
McCutchen needs to move from center field in some manner. His decline in stolen bases and range is a huge red flag, and the injuries the last two years are a concern now that he’s entering the normal decline years for players. In a perfect world, he doesn’t decline, signs an extension for life with the Pirates, and is that rare player who continues playing at a high level for the Pirates well into his 30s. But the reality may be that we see a normal decline in his skills, similar to what happened with Albert Pujols around his age 30/31 seasons.
It might not even be a bad idea to trade McCutchen this off-season. His value should still be pretty high, especially since he finished the year hitting well, and teams tend to place a lot of value in high-profile players like him, even when they’re coming off a down year. There’s no guarantee he sees a sharp decline, as he could return to be a 5.0+ WAR player next year and for the rest of his current contract. But the Pirates would have a lot to gain by trading McCutchen, and not much to lose.
They can easily replace McCutchen on defense in center field by moving Starling Marte over. Marte has better defensive skills, and a much stronger arm. They have Austin Meadows potentially arriving by the middle of the 2017 season, and would have a lot of options for the outfield until then. One of those options could be Josh Bell, with John Jaso and David Freese splitting time at first base, mixing Bell in on occasion, just like they did in September this year.
You could argue that a trade might not be the right move. But I don’t think you can argue that keeping McCutchen in center field is the right move. It would be one thing if he still had range, and it was just an issue with arm strength. But he’s been declining in speed and range over the last few years, and that’s not the type of player you want playing center field, even if his arm would be a liability in right field. The Pirates will have some important decisions to make involving McCutchen this off-season, and if they enter 2017 with him in center field, then something went wrong along the way.
