There was some hope that Gregory Polanco would have a breakout year entering the 2016 season. The right fielder had a .276/.324/.425 line in the second half last year, with a .324 wOBA and a 108 wRC+, and all of those numbers were down due to a poor September. The September numbers were down in part due to some bad BABIP luck, and in part due to a minor injury for Polanco. Overall, the second half was encouraging due to consistent hard contact, and much better results than the first half numbers (.285 wOBA, 81 wRC+).
There was also a question of whether the Pirates would extend their young outfielder before this breakout occurred, as the first year and a half of his career were filled with talks about extension offers, even dating back to before he made his MLB debut. That question was finally answered during the first week of the season, when the Pirates signed Polanco to a five-year, $35 M extension, with two option years, beginning in 2017. The maximum contract would be seven years and $61 M if all options are exercised and all performance bonuses are met. That would also buy out the first three years of Polanco’s free agency.
With Polanco under contract, the only question remaining was whether he would see that breakout. At the start of the year, it looked like he was on his way. During the first month of the season, he had a .302/.404/.500 line, along with a .383 wOBA and a 142 wRC+. He was making similar hard contact that he was the previous July and August, at 34.2%. The massive results carried over into May, with a .317/.369/.604 line, a .398 wOBA, a 153 wRC+, and 36.8% hard contact. But the breakout stalled at that point.
Most of the Pirates’ lineup slumped in June, and Polanco was no exception. His “slump” still resulted in good numbers, with a .778 OPS, a .334 wOBA, and a 110 wRC+. It wasn’t the massive performance you hoped would continue from the first two months of the season, but it was something that you would have taken at the end of the 2015 season. Unfortunately, the numbers declined from there.
Polanco had a .765 OPS in July, a .758 OPS in August, and dropped down to a .511 OPS in September. His wOBA by month was .326, .312, and .228. His wRC+ was 104, 95, and 39. After peaking in May, Polanco saw a steady decline each month in his numbers, bottoming out again in September.
Just like last year, there were some encouraging signs from the second half. The hard contact remained, and was actually better in the second half than it was in the first half. He had a 36.7% hard contact rate in the second half, which matched his best month in May. Even in September, he had a 31.1% hard contact rate, which was better than any month in the first half of 2015. His BABIP was down to .235 in the second half, staying pretty consistently low each month. His power also dropped off in September. He had three months out of the year with an ISO over .200, and the other two months were .148 and .198. But in September, he dropped to .074.
Part of the late slump could have been due to minor injuries again. He received platelet-rich plasma injections in his left knee and left shoulder, with the left knee being the one that was bothering him last year (and the treatment being the same).
I think the start of the season gave us a glimpse of what a healthy Polanco could do. I don’t know if you can expect him to put up an OPS over .900 for a full season. That would make him a star player in the game when combined with his defense. But even if he doesn’t put up an OPS over .900, he’s capable of putting up an OPS over .800 over a full season, which he came close to in 2016. That production on offense, plus his defensive value, would make him a 4+ WAR player per year, which will give a lot of value to that extension.
The Future
Polanco is now under team control through the 2023 season, so the Pirates don’t have to think about their right field situation for some time. The same can be said for their left field and center field spots, as they’ve got Starling Marte under team control through the 2021 season, and Austin Meadows knocking on the door in Triple-A, possibly arriving this year.
I could spend time talking about the future of this outfield, but as it pertains to the right field position, it all comes down to how consistent Polanco is with his offense. I’d hesitate to say that anything we’ve seen so far is predictive, since he just turned 25 years old. I think there’s a lot more upside here, and a lot of potential we haven’t seen yet, due to the young age.
Instead of further discussing Polanco, I’m going to take this time to discuss something that hasn’t been brought up in the other two outfield recaps: the bench. The Pirates had a great fourth outfielder this year in Matt Joyce. He didn’t have strong defense at all, ranking as one of the worst defensive outfielders on the team, down there with Andrew McCutchen. But the offense more than made up for that. He had a .242/.403/.463 line, showing a good ability to get on base (20.1% walk rate, which nearly doubled his 2015 totals) and a lot of power (.221 ISO, which rivaled his best years with the Rays).
The Pirates don’t necessarily need a guy with the same value as Joyce. That would be nice, but at a 1.3 fWAR over half a season of plate appearances, Joyce was performing at the level of an average starter. That would be a high bar to set as the expectation for any future bench outfielder.
In the short-term, the Pirates have a lot of super utility options for their fourth outfield spots. Adam Frazier leads the group, and while his defense isn’t the best, he did fare better than Joyce by some metrics. He has the ability to play all three outfield spots, but is better at the corners. Josh Harrison is the starting second baseman, but could also play the outfield if needed. Josh Bell can move there from first base if a long-term injury occurs, likely providing the same poor defense and strong offense that Joyce saw this year. Alen Hanson, John Jaso, and Jason Rogers are other potential options who have played in the outfield or worked on that this year, with each possessing varying degrees of bad defense and/or a lack of experience at the position.
They might have a better chance of getting an average starter for the fourth outfield role in the future, through their farm system. The top candidates for that in the upper levels are Barrett Barnes and Elvis Escobar. Both have the ability to play all three outfield positions, and provide stronger defense than the previously mentioned players. Barnes has a higher offensive upside, and that has shown up the last two years as he’s finally managed to stay healthy. Escobar shows flashes of his offensive potential, but needs more consistency to be a starting candidate.
Below Altoona, the top options are Jordan Luplow and Connor Joe. Luplow made the move back to the outfield this year after playing third base last year. Joe is currently at third base, but getting some work in the outfield this off-season, which is a position he’s played before. Both are weak defensively compared to Barnes and Escobar, who both came up as center fielders. But Luplow and Joe both have enough offensive upside that they could be starters one day at a corner spot, even if the defense makes them average overall at best.
The Pirates have their starting outfield locked up with Polanco, Marte, McCutchen, and eventually Meadows. They have a few outfield options as backups for the 2017 season, with most of those options lacking in defense, but being able to provide some offense. In the long-term, they have some prospects who could provide defense, offense, or both, giving them the potential for a starting outfielder who is only stuck on the bench due to an elite starting trio. That’s a luxury, and one that isn’t out of the question for the Pirates in the future.
