In last Monday’s First Pitch article, I talked about the players in off-season ball who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Eric Wood is one of those players and he continued his hot streak in the Arizona Fall League this past week. Wood is hitting .375/.468/.625 in 11 games. He is third in OPS, fourth in average, fourth in slugging and second in on base percentage. On Saturday, he hit his third home run of the season. Wood was mentioned in Baseball America’s Hot Sheet report this week and they noted that “Wood might be auditioning for other teams because he probably won’t be protected for the Rule 5 draft this winter.”
It’s definitely an interesting case because he doesn’t profile to be an impact player in the majors, but he’s also one of the top prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the Pirates. Clay Holmes appears to be the only no-brainer on the list of players to protect, but after him every other case you could put odds on for them being protected. Tim Williams looked over the list of players who need to be protected earlier this month and not much has changed. Just to update it in case you check the link, Casey Sadler, Angel Sanchez and Jared Lakind have all been brought back on minor league deals, so they are Rule 5 eligible.
Tim mentioned Eric Wood as one of the five players most likely to be protected. Since then, Wood has put up solid numbers in the AFL and added first base and left field to his resume. The 23-year-old third baseman played strong defense during the regular season and set a career high in homers, topping his total from his first four years combined. He also cut down on his strikeouts and improved his walk rate. It was really a breakout season when you add in the four areas where he showed solid improvements. When you add in his AFL performance so far, it would seem to make him more likely to be protected.
There might be something behind BA’s guess that he won’t be protected. If you go back until 1997, the Rule 5 draft has had just three third basemen picked in 19 years. Of those three, none of them stuck with the team that selected them. So not only does there seem to be very little chance of a third baseman being selected, there is even less of a chance he sticks with the team. I won’t say zero chance, even though the numbers say that, because there is always a first.
I’m sure the Pirates know those odds when figuring out who to protect. Wood is also a player with no Triple-A experience, so he isn’t someone we will see in the majors early next season. That could figure into a team considering him as a Rule 5 pick, because he has things to work on still. If the Pirates want him to continue to add versatility, then he will need more time in the outfield and first base before they become legit options for him in the majors. If he stayed strictly as a third baseman, then he would probably be ready for the big leagues sooner.
Wood might end up being a case of the Pirates weighing the odds of him being picked when deciding whether to protect him or not. He’s one of the better prospects in the system eligible for the Rule 5 draft, but it’s more likely that a team selecting a player in the draft will take a pitcher they can try to hide in the bullpen, or go for more upside with their pick.
One such example of upside is Elvis Escobar, who will play next year at 22 years old and he has Double-A experience. He also has above average speed, defense and a strong arm. He can play center field, which helps his case. He has a line drive stroke with gap power. When you add in his speed, that gives him a chance to pile up extra-base hits without hitting many homers.
While his floor is lower than Wood’s at this point, the upside is also higher. He’s someone a team can use as their fifth outfielder, a player who can substitute on defense and on the bases. His game is still rough around the edges, but just like Wood, he is putting up big numbers this off-season. Escobar is hitting .367/.387/.550 in 20 games in Venezuela, where the level of competition is at least as good as the AFL.
I wouldn’t rank Escobar as a better prospect than Wood, but I would give Escobar a better chance of getting selected and being kept by a team in the Rule 5 draft, because it’s easier to hide an outfielder with tools at the end of your bench.
That usually leads to people saying the team should protect anyone who might be taken. The problem with that thinking is that you need roster spaces to make moves during the season and you can’t waste a lot of spots on players who won’t be ready for the majors on Opening Day. You can’t get to a point where 2-3 injuries force you into bringing up players who aren’t ready, just because you don’t have the roster spaces. Not everyone who is at Triple-A is Major League ready.
Eric Wood is definitely an interesting case for the Rule 5 draft and he is making it more interesting by playing well in the AFL and adding some versatility with two new positions. The odds are clearly in favor of him not being a player who they will lose in the Rule 5 draft. It will just matter whether the Pirates feel the odds are enough in their favor that they don’t need to worry about the decision.
If Wood can continue to show improvements at the plate like he did with Altoona this season, and like he’s doing currently in the AFL, then he becomes a legit top 10-15 prospect in this system. That would make him someone you could see in Pittsburgh sometime during the second half of the 2017 season. That might not be the type of player you want to take chances on in the Rule 5 draft.
Now is a good time to mention that our live coverage of the AFL will begin on Tuesday and Wood will be a focus of this trip. Tim Williams will hopefully get a chance to see him at first base and left field before his time in Arizona is over. We will have updates of all seven Pirates in the league, along with some insight from Altoona hitting coach Kevin Riggs, who is also the hitting coach for the Surprise Saguaros.
Here are some links you may have missed over the last few days:
**Pirates Sign Two Position Players From the Dominican Republic These players were signed in July, but they were both added to the GCL Pirates roster this week. That is an unusual move for international amateur players signed on July 2nd. They usually don’t show up on rosters until Opening Day of the following season.
**Pirates Fill Out Coaching Staff for 2017 The Pirates have a new first base coach, new third base coach and a new bench coach.
**Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker Lead a Position Player Heavy Bradenton Top 10 This is our sixth season recap, with Altoona and Indianapolis coming up this week.
**2016 Left Field Recap: Starling Marte Remains One of the Best Position Players in MLB Once again, Starling Marte proved that he is a valuable player for the Pirates. Tim Williams also takes a look at Marte possibly moving to center field and what that could mean for the Pirates.
**Starling Marte Named Finalist for Gold Glove Award Speaking of Marte and his value…
**2016 Center Field Recap: Pirates Need to Move Andrew McCutchen Off Center Field Speaking of the future in center field for the Pirates…
