43.5 F
Pittsburgh

First Pitch: The First Impressions of the Pirates’ 2016 Draft Class

Published:

Today we posted our top ten prospects for Morgantown, which completes the short-season write-ups for the Pirates’ system. You can check out the Morgantown article here, along with the top ten prospects for Bristol and the GCL. Now that we’ve wrapped up the short-season affiliates, it feels like an appropriate time to recap the 2016 draft.

It’s hard to evaluate a draft after just half a season. It used to be a lot worse, with the old CBA making it so that most of the top players didn’t even play the year they were drafted. The current CBA leads to quicker signings, which means we get an early look at the players the Pirates selected, and they get an early start to their careers. That’s convenient, but even that is not enough to offer up a good evaluation.

There is so much that is impossible to know about the recent draft picks. Most of them are playing deeper in a season than they ever have been, and it’s hard to tell how their performance has been impacted. Some players adjust quicker to pro ball, and some players take some time to adjust. Last year we saw Kevin Newman struggle in his pro debut, only to break out this year and become a borderline top 50 prospect in the game. Meanwhile, late round pick Logan Hill was an example of a guy who had great numbers and showed some tools, but took a step back this year.

Then there’s the fact that the Pirates hardly make any changes to these players until the Fall Instructional League, at the earliest. When a player is drafted, the talk is all about when he projects to reach the majors. That doesn’t change as he moves up through the system. Look at Newman again. The expectation was that he would go to Bradenton in 2016, and hopefully end up in Altoona, which he did. Now the hope is that he could start in Indianapolis and maybe arrive in Pittsburgh by mid-2017, and definitely by mid-2018. But these timelines leave the impression that a player is just biding his time at a level until he reaches a magic number of plate appearances and innings, and has stats good enough to move up at that point.

There is still important development work going on, even with the first round picks. At this point, we know very little about the development of the 2016 draft class, since the Pirates have only just started to actively develop some of them, and not all of those plans are made clear. Sometimes, the biggest improvements will be made a few years later. Mitch Keller was drafted in 2014, but it wasn’t until this time last year — a year and a half after he was drafted — that he made a key mechanical adjustment that helped to greatly improve his command.

With all of that said, we do have a first impression of the draft class. The thing about first impressions is that they tend to shape your view on a subject. That’s not the best approach with prospects. You need to have a short memory and keep in perspective that the first impressions are really just two and a half months at the start of a player’s pro career, with all of the above factors mentioned. This is how we can easily forget Newman’s initial struggles in 2015, and see him more as the prospect who had success in 2016. But that’s not to say that the first impressions can’t tell us anything, as they indicated Keller would be a very interesting pitching prospect, well ahead of his fellow 2014 prep pitchers in Gage Hinsz and Trey Supak.

There were some good first impressions from the 2016 draft class. Most of the focus after the first round went to prep pitchers, and that might have been where the best first impressions came from. Braeden Ogle featured an early 94-96 MPH fastball from the left side, and while it dropped in velocity as the game went on, he still kept it in the low-90s and could improve that velocity as he builds strength. He also showed a lot of improvements with his slider, which is a pitch he just added this year. He needs to improve his command going forward, which is no easy task, but you can’t teach the stuff he has, and it’s rare to see for a young lefty.

Max Kranick is a similar story, only with one key change. He has less velocity right now, usually sitting 89-93 and touching as high as 96 in the past. He has better command of the pitch than Ogle, and good downward movement with the ability to move the ball around the zone. His breaking pitch is also new, and showed improvements throughout the year. If he adds some muscle and improves his velocity, you’re looking at another special pitching prospect.

Travis MacGregor and Austin Shields are more what you’d expect from young pitchers. They’re both raw, with fewer things standing out now. MacGregor has a tall, lanky frame, and the ability to ramp the velocity up, but isn’t there yet on a consistent basis. He has to improve his command, which comes from controlling and repeating his mechanics, while also improving his curveball. Shields is newer to pitching, and while he has a big frame and the ability for some velocity right now, he’s got a lot of work to do to get to the point where he’s a pitcher with control, and not a raw thrower.

As a group, there’s a lot to like. I wouldn’t put upsides on any of these guys just yet, as it’s far from clear what they could become. But you’ve got two pitchers (Ogle, Kranick) off to promising starts, and two other pitchers (MacGregor, Shields) who are more raw, but have a lot of promising aspects to their game. That could all change for better or worse, but for now, it looks like the Pirates have a nice group of prep pitchers to add to their growing pitching prospect depth in the lower levels.

The other big part of the draft was the first round pick, Will Craig. He lived up to the hype on offense, struggling early, but rebounding to show the ability to hit for average, with strong plate patience, and some very hard hit balls. We could be due for a repeat of Kevin Newman next year, with Craig displaying a lot of offensive upside, only with a better preview than Newman showed, and more power than Newman has.

The offensive first impression was good, but the defensive first impression wasn’t so good. Craig had some problems at third base, with a lot of throwing errors, and first step quickness being an issue. The throwing errors could have been due to a sore shoulder from Craig pitching as a reliever in college, while also playing third base. The Pirates gave him time at first base during instructs to give his arm a break from the throws across the diamond. I don’t think the throwing issues are a big concern, but the first step quickness is a question mark. That can be improved upon by a focus on conditioning, which is going to be a big focus this off-season. The Pirates have no reason to move Craig off third base anytime soon, so he should get plenty of opportunities to stick at the position as he makes his way through the minors.

Outside of Craig and the prep pitchers, the biggest standout was third round pick Stephen Alemais. The shortstop showed off amazing defense, challenging Gift Ngoepe as one of the best in the system. He didn’t show much in the way of his hitting abilities, but did work on a few adjustments during instructs, and saw some results in the short-term. We’ll see next year if that success carries over, and if it does, Alemais could be a very good third round pick.

There were other interesting guys who just didn’t show much this year, which is understandable, since not every player will stand out in their first few months. Top ten round picks Blake Cederlind (RHP) and Brent Gibbs (catcher) both showed some promising tools, but had their seasons cut short due to injury. Cam Vieaux showed an advanced approach, but a bigger test of his skills will be his performance next year in A-ball. Dylan Prohoroff and John Pomeroy are both hard throwing right-handers with different levels of control issues.

Overall, the draft featured a lot of upside, which is something you’d expect when a draft is mostly focused on high upside prep pitchers. But it’s not all just upside, as there are some immediate things to like about those prep pitchers, along with some lower risk players who have upside like Will Craig and Stephen Alemais. The 2016 draft had a good variety and a good mix of talent, which is always a good recipe to maximize your chances at getting a good draft class in the long run. That said, it’s still very early, and while the first impressions were mostly good, those impressions are based on a very small sample size, and could change in a big way a year or two from now.

**Two Early Round Pirates Draft Picks Lead the Morgantown Top 10 Prospects. The recap for Morgantown’s top prospects.

**AFL: Solid Performance From Tanner Anderson. John Dreker with a report on Tanner Anderson’s start in the AFL.

**MLB Discussing an International Draft in the Upcoming CBA. This would be good for a lot of reasons, with the biggest one for the Pirates being that it will make it easier for them to get their fair share of top international talent.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

Related Articles

Article Drop

Latest Articles