The Pirates will be looking for pitching this off-season, both on the free agent market and on the trade market. Meanwhile, throughout their minor league system, they have plenty of starting pitching options, to the point that they have too many prospect options for rotation spots. Most of the prospects getting squeezed out of rotation spots project as either future relievers at best or lottery ticket prospects in the lower levels. In the past, the Pirates have traded from this depth to address MLB needs.
Looking over the projected minor league rotations for the 2017 season, it seems they will have plenty of depth either for trades, or to convert some starters over to the bullpen for some additional relief help to arrive in the next year or two.
Indianapolis
The Indianapolis rotation will largely be impacted by the rotation in Pittsburgh. Right now, the Pirates are projected to have Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, and Chad Kuhl in the mix, with two rotation spots up for grabs. At least one of those spots will go to a free agent signing or a guy brought in via trade. Another spot could go to one of the Triple-A guys.
The guys who are candidates to return to the Triple-A rotation this year are Tyler Glasnow, Steven Brault, Trevor Williams, Drew Hutchison, Frank Duncan, and Nick Kingham. I’d say the first four could have a shot at the Opening Day rotation in Pittsburgh. Even if that happens, you can see a crunch here, as they still have five starters for five rotation spots, with other starters potentially coming up from Altoona.
I’ll get into the Altoona group in a second, but just to touch on that, the guys who I think have the best chance of moving up are Clay Holmes, Tyler Eppler, and Cody Dickson. Of those three, Holmes seems most likely to remain a starter in the long-term.
In the past, the Pirates have signed a veteran starter for their Triple-A rotation, although that might not be necessary this year, as they have Opening Day depth from pretty much every member of the projected Triple-A rotation.
I could see someone from the Triple-A group moving to the bullpen, and maybe even making the MLB bullpen. There could also be some trade candidates here, but Glasnow is the only guy who would bring back a significant return, and that would involve other prospects in the deal. Of the Altoona group, I could see Dickson and Eppler moving up and switching to a relief role, with Holmes having a shot at the rotation. Of course, they could also be trade candidates, due to the numbers game.
Altoona
Altoona finished the year with Holmes, Dickson, Eppler, Brandon Waddell, and Alex McRae. The last two started the season in Bradenton, and didn’t pitch a full season in Altoona. The Pirates typically have their starters pitching a full season’s worth of innings in Altoona before a promotion, so I could see Waddell and McRae returning to Double-A for the start of the year. The fact that there are so many prospects ahead of them makes it easier for the Pirates to keep them at the same level.
Eppler, Dickson, and/or Holmes could also return, due to the numbers game. But this is where something really has to give. Bradenton has three starters who could potentially move up in Yeudy Garcia, Austin Coley, and JT Brubaker. Garcia and Brubaker would be the most likely to remain in the rotation, although that would mean that some of the previously mentioned Altoona starters would have to move to the bullpen, whether that was in Altoona or Indianapolis. Or, it could mean the Pirates had some trade depth, with these players likely landing bench and bullpen help.
Bradenton
Bradenton finished the year with Yeudy Garcia, Austin Coley, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, and Tanner Anderson. Keller was a promotion in time for the playoffs, and should at least spend the first half of the season in Bradenton. He’s a good enough prospect that he should move to Altoona when he’s ready, and won’t be blocked by anyone ahead of him. Anderson pitched mostly in relief, but has been starting in the AFL. I could see him sticking as a long reliever, especially with the guys coming up from the lower levels. He could even move up to Altoona in the relief role.
Colten Brewer and Buddy Borden were both in the rotation, although I don’t see them keeping those spots if they return next year, with a move to the bullpen being the better option for both. They could both move to Altoona as relievers.
Bradenton will receive some good arms from West Virginia, led by Taylor Hearn and Gage Hinsz. Other candidates for the rotation are Dario Agrazal, Bret Helton, and Logan Sendelbach. Keller, Hearn, and Hinsz will get starting spots, with Agrazal, Helton, and Sendelbach competing for the remaining two spots. They could also likely compete with Cam Vieaux, who seems like a good candidate to make the jump over West Virginia next year. And Austin Coley might be in the mix, although I think it’s more likely that the Pirates move him up as a reliever, rather than having him repeat High-A as a starter.
Once again, there’s a crunch, although the guys getting squeezed out here are guys who would eventually end up in the bullpen at some point as they moved up through the system.
West Virginia
I could see Hearn, Hinsz, Sendelbach, Agrazal, and Helton moving up in some capacity, just because there are so many guys arriving from the short-season leagues. The best prospect of the group is Luis Escobar. He will easily get a rotation spot, as he’s the top pitching prospect at the level next year, and one of the top prospects at the level. Blake Cederlind, drafted in the fifth round this year, would also have the inside track for a rotation spot.
Jake Brentz and Pedro Vasquez, acquired in the Arquimedes Caminero trade, could both have a shot at the rotation in West Virginia. I don’t know if I’d give them an inside track, but I see them at least serving in piggyback roles, if they’re not outright starters.
The other candidates would be Stephan Meyer, James Marvel, Danny Beddes, Matt Eckelman, and Matt Anderson. There’s not as much of a crunch here, especially since West Virginia has the luxury of piggybacking starters to get innings for more than five players.
The Rotation Crunches
The obvious solution to the rotation crunches for next year would be a trade, and I’m not going to be surprised if the Pirates deal from their pitching depth to address needs on the MLB team. They already started this process by trading Stephen Tarpley in the deal for Ivan Nova, and that’s not a new process. They traded Adrian Sampson for J.A. Happ, Shane Carle for Rob Scahill, Buddy Borden for Sean Rodriguez, Joely Rodriguez for Antonio Bastardo, and Trey Supak in a deal for Jason Rogers. Most of those deals were for bench and bullpen help, and I could see the same approach taking place this off-season.
If there aren’t any trades, and there almost certainly will be, then this would be the rotation I would choose, with anyone after the number five starter being in the bullpen at that level (and West Virginia starters being in piggyback/long relief roles). I’m assuming the Pirates add two starters in the majors in this scenario, which doesn’t mean I think the Pirates will add two starters. It’s just easier going with that assumption, rather than trying to predict which Indianapolis starter will win a job out of Spring Training.
Indianapolis: Tyler Glasnow, Drew Hutchison, Steven Brault, Nick Kingham, Clay Holmes, Trevor Williams, Frank Duncan, Tyler Eppler
Altoona: Yeudy Garcia, Brandon Waddell, JT Brubaker, Cody Dickson, Alex McRae, Austin Coley, Tanner Anderson
Bradenton: Mitch Keller, Taylor Hearn, Gage Hinsz, Cam Vieaux, Logan Sendelbach, Dario Agrazal, Bret Helton
West Virginia: Luis Escobar, Blake Cederlind, Jake Brentz, Pedro Vasquez, Stephan Meyer, James Marvel, Danny Beddes, Matt Eckelman, Matt Anderson
**Pirates Have Talked With LHP Derek Holland. I don’t think Holland would be the best reclamation starter for the Pirates, as he doesn’t look like he could return to being the same pitcher he was a few years ago.
**AFL: Tanner Anderson Gets Outstanding Results With His Changeup on Wednesday. When I talked to Anderson earlier this month, he said one focus this off-season was focusing more on his changeup.
