The Arizona Fall League wrapped up this weekend, with the Surprise Saguaros, the affiliate of the Pirates, losing in the championship game. The Pirates didn’t send the most dynamic AFL group to Phoenix this year, as they lacked a top prospect like previous classes which included Austin Meadows, Jameson Taillon, and Gerrit Cole. But they did have a few notable breakout prospects in the league.
Jonathan Mayo posted a list of ten breakout prospects from the 2016 AFL season, and the Pirates had two players on the list. Eric Wood and Edgar Santana both made the cut, with Santana sticking out due to his hard fastball and plus slider, and Wood making the list after his big AFL season at the plate. They’re still not quite to the level of the top prospects from other years, but their chances of reaching the majors have improved, and they’re now on the radar as future MLB prospects on a more widespread manner.
In thinking about their chances of reaching the majors, I started wondering what the odds were of an AFL player reaching the big leagues, and how successful the Pirates have been in the past. Most AFL participants are upper level players, and it’s a showcase league, so each team will send a few prospects that they’re hoping will get some more attention as actual prospects (which is what happened with Santana and Wood).
With John Dreker’s help, I looked back at every single player who went to the AFL for the Pirates under Neal Huntington to see how many players made the majors. I wasn’t focused on how long they stayed in the majors, or what their role was, as I think those are things that rely more on the individual talent, and less on the assignment. Instead, I’m focusing on the assignment, as players being sent to the AFL should have a pretty reasonable expectation of reaching the big leagues.
Below is the breakdown, which gives an idea of what to expect from the 2016 group. The players from each year are listed in italics, with the players in bold representing the guys who have made the majors so far.
2015
Adam Frazier, Steven Brault, Trevor Williams, Austin Meadows, Brett McKinney, Cody Dickson, Reese McGuire, Tyler Eppler
Analysis: This is a pretty good result considering we’re only one year removed from this group. Frazier, Brault, and Williams all made the majors, and all three project to have some sort of role in the majors going forward. Frazier projects as a super utility player, Brault has the upside of a back of the rotation starter, and Williams joins him, although he’s more likely to be a reliever or a depth starter in the Pirates’ system.
Most of the players who haven’t made the majors have a shot to make it to varying degrees. Austin Meadows would obviously provide the biggest impact of this entire group. Reese McGuire will eventually make the majors on his defense alone, although the offense will determine his long-term role. Tyler Eppler will probably make it at least as a reliever. Cody Dickson has a good arm, and could make it as a reliever, although I see him more as a cup of coffee or depth guy, unless he gets traded to a weaker organization. Brett McKinney has the weakest shot at the majors, although he throws hard and struck out almost a batter an inning, so that could eventually lead to a brief appearance.
2014
Tyler Glasnow, Josh Bell, Adrian Sampson, Elias Diaz, Joely Rodriguez, Tom Harlan, Dan Gamache
Analysis: This might be the best group the Pirates have sent under Huntington, dependent on Glasnow and Bell reaching their upsides or coming close. Elias Diaz has a chance to be a defensive minded starter behind the plate in the majors. Adrian Sampson arrived with the Mariners as a starter, but went down with elbow surgery after his first start, although it wasn’t Tommy John. Joely Rodriguez arrived for 12 relief appearances this year, and projects to be relief depth going forward.
Tom Harlan is now out of baseball. Dan Gamache could still make it. He was lost in the mix in Indianapolis this year, and released at the end of the season. He could make the majors for a cup of coffee if he catches on somewhere else this off-season.
2013
Alen Hanson, Alex Dickerson, Jameson Taillon, Phil Irwin, Gift Ngoepe, Matt Benedict, Tyler Waldron, Zack Thornton
Analysis: Taillon and Hanson led this group, and both have made the majors. Taillon has obviously had the bigger impact, while Hanson is still looking for a real chance, and will probably get some kind of shot next year as a super utility player, since he’s out of options. Alex Dickerson arrived with the Padres this year, got off to a hot start, then cooled after the first month of action. Phil Irwin reached the majors with the Pirates before being derailed by Tommy John.
Of the remaining players, Gift Ngoepe has the best shot to make it, almost entirely on his defense. Benedict is retired and works for the Pirates now on the baseball operations side of things. Tyler Waldron didn’t play in 2016, and Zack Thornton keeps hanging around Triple-A, and could have a shot at a cup of coffee one of these days. This group will probably end up with five players, once Ngoepe makes it.
2012
Brandon Cumpton, Vic Black, Adalberto Santos, Gift Ngoepe, Kyle Kaminska, Matt Curry, Tyler Waldron
Analysis: This is one of the weakest groups, and that was true at the time. They didn’t have a top prospect to headline the group, and there were very few guys who profiled as mid-range prospects. Brandon Cumpton has spent the most time in the majors, before being derailed by Tommy John and shoulder surgery. Vic Black was traded in the Marlon Byrd deal, and made the majors. Once again, I think Ngoepe will make the majors, giving this group three players.
Santos, Kaminska, and Curry are out of baseball, while Waldron missed the 2016 season with a shoulder injury.
2011
Brock Holt, Gerrit Cole, Robbie Grossman, Jeff Inman, Jarek Cunningham, Mike Colla, Nate Baker
Analysis: Gerrit Cole was sent here to get work after signing too late to play during the season. He has obviously made the biggest impact of this group, which was expected. Brock Holt surprisingly made the second biggest impact, while Robbie Grossman started putting up some results in the big leagues this year after a few years of floating around as Triple-A depth.
Inman, Cunningham, Colla, and Baker are all out of baseball, so this group will end up with three players making the majors.
2010
Andrew Lambo, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison, Justin Wilson, Tony Sanchez, Aaron Pribanic, Brian Leach
Analysis: Most of this group came from the Altoona team, which had most of the actual prospects in the system at the time. There aren’t any stars here, but Mercer and Harrison have emerged as starters in the majors, Wilson has emerged as a solid reliever, and Lambo has received a few shots in the majors. Sanchez was the biggest prospect of the group at the time, but didn’t work out, and is still serving as a depth option out of Triple-A while going from organization to organization.
Pribanic and Leach are both out of the game.
2009
Chase d’Arnaud, Daniel Moskos, Donnie Veal, Jose Tabata, Tony Watson, Brian Friday
Analysis: It’s kind of cheating to include Veal on the success list, since he made the majors as a Rule 5 pick before he went to the league. The best of this group was Watson, while Tabata ended up being the only other player who made a significant contribution in the majors, even if it was very short lived. I’m actually surprised that Brian Friday never played in the majors for the Pirates around the 2010 time period, and he never made the majors after that.
2008
Jamie Romak, Jared Hughes, Michael Crotta, Steve Lerud, Derek Hankins, Jeff Sues, Shelby Ford
Analysis: To get nine players from the 2008/2009 groups, which came from horrible farm systems, was surprising. Although, this could have been due to the quality of the MLB teams over the next few years. Of this group, Hughes made the most notable contribution in the majors, and this came at a time when he was still a starting pitcher in the minors.
Overall Analysis
Out of the 55 players the Pirates sent to the AFL, 31 have made the majors. We’ve seen numbers in the past showing that 64% of AFL participants eventually make the majors. There should be about six more players from this group who will make the majors in some form, putting the Pirates around 67% for these years. That’s an average of 4.5 players per year making the majors.
As you can see above, even the worst years will get three players making the majors, while the best years usually see five players reaching the majors. I think it’s safe to say that three players from the 2016 group will make the majors, just due to proximity. Edgar Santana has the best chance, since he’s in Triple-A and has the stuff to arrive in 2017. Some of the Double-A guys could arrive as well, even if it’s just for a brief appearance.
I also noticed an interesting trend starting with the 2011 group. At least one prospect from every class was traded by the following trade deadline. The 2011 group marked the beginning of the Pirates becoming contenders, which also marked the start of when they began trading prospects for MLB help. Robbie Grossman was traded the following deadline from the 2011 group, and Brock Holt was traded the following off-season from the 2011 group. Vic Black was traded from the 2012 group the following trade deadline (the August version). Alex Dickerson was traded a few weeks after the 2013 AFL season ended. Joely Rodriguez was traded a month after the 2014 AFL season ended, and Adrian Sampson was traded the following deadline. And it will cause the comments to blow up, but Reese McGuire continued this trend by being traded this past trade deadline.
It’s a pretty safe bet to assume that one of the 2016 AFL participants will be traded, just because the Pirates are in position to trade from their minor league depth, and a lot of the guys in this year’s class are either blocked at the big league level for a few years, have better prospects in the system at their position, or both.
As for some of these players making the majors, I think we’ll see Santana arrive in 2017, but I don’t think we’ll see the instant results of the 2015 class, where a year from now there will be three players from the 2016 group who made their debuts. Time will tell how good this class ends up, but you can probably expect anywhere from 3-5 of these players to reach the majors in some form.
**Eric Wood Listed Among Top Available Rule 5 Players. The Pirates are taking a bit of a gamble by exposing him, although I don’t think it’s a huge risk, and I might expand on that further in an article soon.
**Pirates Sign the Younger Brother of One of Their Current Prospects. Pretty interesting signing, getting the younger brother of Pablo Reyes. He can already hit 94-95 MPH, and while he’s older, the Pirates have had some success in recent years taking hard throwing pitchers in their early 20s.
**Winter Leagues: Luis Heredia Makes His First Start Since 2015. It seems the Pirates have given up on Heredia as a starter, although they’re giving him permission to start for his winter league team.
