The phrase “waiting for the other shoe to drop” came from New York City around the early 1900’s. Housing units were built on top of each other with the same design, so when you were kicking off your shoes on the top floor, the person in the floor below you would hear one shoe drop, and then wait for the sound of the other shoe to hit the floor.
I have a lot of questions about this. For one, why was it common practice to just kick your shoes off in a way where it makes a loud sound? I personally take my shoes off while I’m standing most of the time. Also, how did they know it was a shoe? I’ve lived in a downstairs apartment before. Everything sounds like a bowling ball is being spiked by Andre the Giant. I feel like hearing a sound, and expecting another sound to shortly follow would lead to madness. My cat knocks stuff off the counters all the time, creating one single thud, and he does it because it’s in his genes to be an asshole, which means cats back in the early 1900’s were also knocking the remote controls and electric toothbrushes — and all of the other stuff they definitely had at the turn of the 20th century — off the night stand and counters, creating single thuds. So maybe the “other shoe” was the person below them slowly going insane, assuring themselves “It’s a shoe. It’s a shoe. The other one will drop soon. I know there’s going to be another noise. Where is the noise? I’m waiting! I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. I know it’s a shoe. It’s almost usually a shoe. When is it going to drop? WHERE IS THE OTHER SHOE?! DAMMIT, IF THAT’S JUST THEIR CAT AGAIN…” and so on.
That’s kind of how it feels right now with the Pirates and the left-handed relief situation. About ten days ago, I wrote that we were waiting for the other shoe to drop with the lefty reliever situation. At the time, the Pirates had just come off a week where they extended Wade LeBlanc, and drafted Tyler Webb in the Rule 5 draft. This is while also having Tony Watson, Felipe Rivero, and Antonio Bastardo on the roster. So the Pirates have five left-handers who all need to be in the majors, which obviously means someone is getting traded.
Add to that scenario the fact that lefty relievers continue getting big money, and the lefty market is a seller’s market. Mike Dunn received three years and $19 M, while averaging 0.5 fWAR over the last four years, and 0.2 in the last two years. He also has a negative WPA in those years. Mark Rzepczynski got two years and $11 M. He has averaged less than 0.4 fWAR over the last four years, with a WPA ranging anywhere from -1.3 to 1.01 (-1.3 and 0.41 in the last two years).
You look at those numbers, and you look at Tony Watson, who is projected to make $5.9 M. He has averaged a little over an 0.8 fWAR in each of the last four years, with two 1.4 fWAR seasons leading into his down year in 2016. His WPA is off the charts compared to those situational lefties, with an average of a 2.6 WPA over the last four years. If Dunn and Rzepczynski are worth $5.5-6.5 M a year while putting up sub-0.5 fWAR seasons and sub 0.5 WPA years recently, then Watson has a lot of value on this market, even coming off a down year.
Despite all of this, we’ve still been waiting for the other shoe to drop, with no sounds coming from above.
Then there was today’s move, where the Pirates added Daniel Hudson to a two-year, $11 M deal. It’s difficult to use the four-year average here, since he was out for two of those years with Tommy John. Since he has returned, he has averaged 0.65 fWAR, with a 1.41 WPA in 2015 and an 0.75 WPA in 2016. Maybe this is an indicator of how much higher the lefty market is versus the right-handed reliever market, since Hudson looks much better than Dunn and Rzepczynski, despite similar contracts.
The impact of this move is that it takes the Pirates up to a projected $94 M in payroll. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for a starting pitcher under a $100 M budget, unless they shed some payroll in another area. And that’s where we come back to the lefty relievers, with Watson projected for $5.9 M, and Antonio Bastardo making $6.5 M. Take away one of those salaries, and you’ve got enough room to add a starting pitcher like Ivan Nova (while possibly adding a younger reliever in the process of a trade).
Basically, the Daniel Hudson signing was like when you slip your shoe off your heel, then kick it away, but it still hangs on your toe. The shoe hasn’t dropped yet, but it’s getting closer and the process has begun. I guess what I’m saying is that we now know it’s not a cat making that noise about the possibility of trading one of the lefty relievers.
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**Pirates Release RHP David Whitehead. Almost a year ago, the Pirates acquired him in the Charlie Morton salary dump. That move wasn’t a bad one, since they avoided wasting $8 M. You’d also wonder who they wouldn’t have signed if they kept Morton. They probably don’t sign Vogelsong, but what about the other $6 M? That amount is the same as what they paid for David Freese and Juan Nicasio.
**Pirates Agree to Two-Year Deal with RHP Daniel Hudson. My analysis of the signing is in this article.
**Winter Leagues: Jason Rogers Hits His First Homer of the Winter. A trade from last year that didn’t work out, and now Rogers is out of options and needs to make the majors in 2017.
