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First Pitch: The Parallels Between the Current Offseason and 2012-13

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In thinking about the current offseason, I can’t help but draw comparisons to the 2012-2013 offseason.

The Pirates entered both offseasons with fans irate. They were coming off a horrible collapse in the second half of the 2012 season, and were riding a 20 year losing streak. The anger this year feels as intense, although the circumstances aren’t nearly as dire, since they’re coming off their first losing season in the past four years. Still, the main concern is the same: How do the Pirates take the next step to get to the playoffs?

The offseason approaches were similar in both years. In 2012, the Pirates had a bit of a juggling act. They signed Russell Martin early in the offseason, but then traded Joel Hanrahan in order to free up some money (while also adding a key piece of their next few years in Mark Melancon), and used the savings to sign Francisco Liriano. They were faced with budget constraints, and all of their moves ended up working out better than you could have expected.

This year is still incomplete, but it’s shaping up to be very similar. The catching parallel isn’t quite the same, since they already had Francisco Cervelli under contract heading into the offseason. However, that is due to an extension they signed during the year, and if that extension wasn’t signed, they would have been seeking a catcher again this offseason.

They did trade Francisco Liriano during the season in order to create some payroll flexibility. Right now, I have them projected at $88.5 M, with an unknown amount coming from the Mets for Antonio Bastardo which could lower that figure. They should have enough money to sign a guy like Ivan Nova and fill their rotation need with no other moves. But you’ve got to expect that they would want to add some depth to the bullpen and bench, and that would require that they do another juggling act.

This was already attempted in a way. They spent the first part of the offseason listening to offers for Andrew McCutchen, and got close to trading him for a reported package that included Lucas Giolito. The approach to trade McCutchen obviously wasn’t about shedding payroll, otherwise they probably would have traded him by now for whatever return they could get. But the payroll savings would have allowed them to do some interesting things, adding someone like Nova with ease, and then having plenty to add bullpen and bench depth.

Now that McCutchen is staying with the team, they’re going to have to find another way to fit their offseason moves inside their budget. They are spending a lot more heading into 2017 than they were in 2013, but there is still a budget. It’s reasonable to assume that this budget is around $100 M, based on comments Neal Huntington made earlier this offseason about how signing David Freese last year put them over budget (they were at a projected $103 M, and Freese cost $3 M). It’s also realistic to expect this is their ceiling when you look at where other teams have maxed out.

The Pirates also reportedly tried to sign Sean Rodriguez in a plan to trade Josh Harrison and save some money. The swap of Rodriguez for Harrison would have saved them about $7.5 M over the next two years if they would have been able to pull off the plan. That plan went away when Rodriguez signed with the Braves.

There are still some moves that could be made to free up payroll, and ironically enough, they are mostly in the bullpen, just like the 2012-13 offseason. The easiest one would involve trading Antonio Bastardo. There have been rumors that the Pirates are shopping him and willing to eat some salary to get rid of him. Again, we don’t know how much the Mets are paying, but in either scenario, you can expect the payroll projection to drop.

Another option would be trading Tony Watson, who is in the final year of his deal, and projected to make $5.9 M. The savings wouldn’t be much, but Watson could bring an MLB-ready reliever back, similar to what happened with the Mark Melancon trade, and that could get them on their way to building a stronger bullpen (they’d probably still need an outside addition beyond the Watson return).

One thing working in their favor is the left-handed relief market, which is currently a seller’s market. Watson isn’t coming off the best year, and Bastardo doesn’t have the highest value. But we just saw Mike Dunn get a three-year, $19 M deal this week. So the Pirates shouldn’t have an issue moving Watson and/or Bastardo. The fact that they have five lefties lined up for the bullpen right now (those two, plus Felipe Rivero, Wade LeBlanc, and Rule 5 pick Tyler Webb) indicates that this is the route they will take.

Again, the issue doesn’t seem to be their ability to add a starting pitcher. They have enough in the budget to make that move, and finish right around $100 M. The issue seems to be their ability to add other pieces beyond just that one starter. We saw how important that was last year, with the offense overcoming injuries and poor performances across the board due to some key depth signings in David Freese, Sean Rodriguez, and Matt Joyce (and they brought back Freese on an extension at the end of the 2016 season, so they’ve already gotten started on the 2017 depth).

If I had to give a loose projection of the rest of the offseason, I’d guess the Pirates will trade from their left-handed relief depth, free up some payroll in the process, add a starting pitcher, and add a few depth pieces for the bullpen and bench (the bigger need is the bullpen), while finishing right around $100 M in expected payroll. And then we’ll have to see if the entire big picture approach works as well as it did in 2012-13.

**Ivan Nova’s Market Has Been Surprisingly Quiet This Offseason. A look at how there have been very few rumors surrounding Nova, and no other teams connected to the right-handed starter.

**Winter Leagues: Alen Hanson Reaches Base Three Times on Saturday Night. John Dreker has the latest recap of the winter league performers.

**Pirates Sign Josh Lindblom and Eury Perez to Minor League Contracts. The Pirates signed two more guys to minor league deals with Spring Training invites.

**Pirates Sign Hard Throwing Minor League LHP with an Injury History. They also signed an interesting left-handed reliever who didn’t get an MLB invite, but who has a lot of velocity and looks like an interesting project.

**Baseball America Releases Top Ten Prospects List For Pirates. Tyler Glasnow drops down to third on the list, and falls behind Mitch Keller. I guess I’m not alone in thinking that Keller is the top pitching prospect in the system right now.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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