I’m not against trading prospects. That should be apparent by the multiple articles I’ve written saying that the Pirates have the prospects to get Jose Quintana, and could afford to trade¬†the big package of prospects required to make that deal.

There isn’t one sole purpose when building a farm system. The primary focus would be to supply the big league team with young talent that will be under control for many years. The Pirates have achieved this with their farm system. Right now, their starting lineup has six of eight players who were developed in the system, and their current expected rotation has three guys developed in the system, along with numerous other options in the upper levels of the minors.

The farm system should also be used for trades to help supplement the MLB club. The Pirates have done plenty of this. They’ve traded prospects at the deadline almost every year that they’ve been contenders. They’ve never traded an impact prospect, and haven’t really come close. Most of the guys they’ve dealt were either formerly in the back half of the top ten and on their way down in the rankings, or younger guys who had just emerged as top ten prospects, or maybe lower, but with some upside.

You need to find a balance between sticking with prospects for your future and trading away guys for present day help. Trade the wrong prospect, and you might open up a hole on the team for many years. Trade the right prospect, and it really won’t make a difference to you if he succeeds or fails with his new team. You might have seen me repeat a strategy that is similar to this. The best approach is making a trade that won’t hurt a team in the short-term or the long-term.

Austin Meadows would be a guy who wouldn’t hurt the Pirates if they traded him in the short-term. They’ve got Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco for the next two years, so they don’t really need Meadows in that time. However, a trade of Meadows would hurt them in the long-term. McCutchen is only under team control through the 2018 season. Meadows has the chance to be an impact player, and could easily be better in his first six years than McCutchen in his early to mid 30s. Not to mention, Meadows would be a lot cheaper. So the Pirates could trade a guy like Meadows and not have to worry about it for the next two years, but that deal would hurt them in the long-term.

It’s hard to give a current example of a guy who would hurt the Pirates if you traded him in the short-term but not the long-term. Typically, prospects will help in both areas. But over time, players can be in both categories. Tyler Glasnow was a guy who you wouldn’t trade prior to the 2016 season. The Pirates needed him for the short-term, and the long-term. One year later, they saw Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl step up, along with Ivan Nova turning things around and re-signing with the team. If they traded for Jose Quintana (which would probably require Glasnow), then there wouldn’t be as much need for Glasnow in the short-term. He’d be more valuable in the long-term, but the Pirates could afford to give that up for a powerful starter now.

The sweet spot comes when you have depth in the long-term at a position in the majors, and depth in the minors. The outfield has been a spot for the Pirates where they can trade from depth. With Meadows in the system, their starting outfield projects to be locked up through the 2021 season, at the earliest. You can never have too much pitching depth, but the Pirates do have enough depth to spare. For at least the next three seasons, they will have Cole, Taillon, Nova, and Kuhl, plus all of the other options in Triple-A, and more guys emerging from High-A and Double-A.

There are some other positions that have depth for the Pirates to trade. There are several shortstop prospects, with Kevin Newman projected to take over in the next year or two. The Pirates could bank on Newman and trade from their prospect depth. The catching situation looks good, with Francisco Cervelli under control for three years, and Elias Diaz in the minors. The Pirates have a few third base prospects in the system, and no need in the majors until after the 2019 season. If they keep Josh Bell, they have their first baseman for the next six years, with some options in the lower minors. If they don’t keep him, David Freese could be the guy for the next three years, with Will Craig being the top replacement option.

The Pirates have built a deep system, with a good number of impact prospects at the top. They’ve got a group in the majors that will largely be together for the next 3-4 years or longer, with some of those prospects taking over for the long-term after that. If there ever was a time where they could afford to trade prospects for MLB help, it’s now. That’s because they’re now in a better position than ever to trade some prospects, and not miss them in the short-term or the long-term.

**I can’t recall a time when the Pirates added a player, and carried more than 40 players on the roster for multiple days. They’ve been at 41 since announcing the Ivan Nova signing. We’ll see if they make a corresponding move tomorrow, and if the wait was due to another move they had lined up.

**Winter Leagues: Playoffs Begin in the Dominican. John Dreker with the latest report on the winter leagues.

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      • Not a bad idea if the meds check out alright, and it seems like that may be a big if considering no one is really talking about him. If the docs clear him, i’m all for it

        • I don’t know…I don’t think exams are a big thing until a contract is signed.

          There are rumors, I’m sure.

          Things folks are looking at.

          Hammel just seems to be a forgotten man…much like Nova was before the Pirates signed him.

    • With the disclaimer that there is virtually nobody with quite as high as quintana in terms of upside, alex cobb, alex wood, drew smyly, and if he can prove to be healthy (or at least healthy enough) hyun jin ryu can all be had for relativeively modest trade packages. In terms of free agents, jason hammel, and travis wood are decent bets that could fit in the bucco budget.

  1. Tim,
    Are the Pirates to the point where they may have so
    many quality prospects in the next year or so
    that they may put themselves in a situation where
    they faced a situation where they had so many
    quality prospects that they could lose quality players
    in the rule 5 draft?

    To me, that would be a reason to move a few now.

    Sorry if this is another of my stupid questions.

  2. I would also like to see the Pirates be a little more “aggressive” with trading their prospects at peak value. We seem to label players as ” untouchable” while hoping they reach their peaks and then after a visible (to others) stumble, we open up to trading them.
    For instance, I think Glasnow would have fetched more of a return last offseason. I am not saying he is a bust but … we should have had the same knowledge last year that we do now concerning his control, makeup, and change up. But it feels like we showed his weaknesses to all last year and to include him now in trade talks makes it seem like he is dropping in value.

    • He is 22 years old. He is going to have things to work on. His issue is that he didn’t make any improvements from one year to the next.

      • I’m talking less about whether Glasnow will specifically turn things around and more about a philosophy of trading assets at their peak. The Pirates should have an advantage over every other team in evaluating their assets.
        I know this sounds like hindsight but it is a pattern in that at the major league level: we held onto Walker and Alvarez and got nothing. There was some debate about Cutch last year, we held onto him and now teams are questioning his value.
        As Tim said we have traded lower level prospects but nothing at a high level.

        • I think parts of your criticism are certainly more valid than others.

          Holding onto Walker, Alvarez, and Cutch was a product of their *success*. The goal is to win baseball games, and those players were critical to accomplishing said goal. Selling them off just as the club was reaching the peak of the win cycle would’ve been counterproductive. You’re certainly correct to note that they’ll eventually get less future return for them than they could have, but they also got very real *current* value out of keeping them.

          The prospect part of your comment, though, I think is valid. In particular, kids with high risk profiles. Harold Ramirez was the largest mistake, IMO, as he’s a tweener. Not enough defense to play up the middle, but not enough power to be very attractive in a corner. If they did not have a plan to extract more power out of him – and they clearly didn’t – then I don’t think it made any sense to hold onto him for another year when there’s less chance of that power turning up. I’ll include Alen Hanson in this group, as well. Not enough defense to stay at short, not enough power to be interesting anywhere else. Cashing him in before the shine of his fluky breakout wore completely off should’ve been done.

          Nothing about the handling of Reese McGuire makes the slightest bit of sense, so I don’t even know where to start there.

          Glasnow was showing very real progress coming out of AA, so I can sort of understand their willingness to ride that out. True TOR stuff with the control in check, and that’s exactly what he looked like with Meccage. I think there could be an argument made for continuing to ride this one out now that they have seen regression as opposed to selling him at this point.

          • Agree with this Glasnow analysis. Someone earlier this week had posted his AAA numbers against the AAA stats of several MLB top of the rotation starters and he topped them all. He has been unhittable at that level. Somebody should find the key to unleashing the enormous potential as he matures and I still hope it is the Pirates.

  3. Tim … Agree with your approach. I might tentatively suggest they could basically replace Cutch with either Meadows or Bell. I realize Bell will be a liability in RF but that could mostly be hidden at PNC. I am also a little concerned about Meadows hammy’s The main concern would be preventing him from being a full-time player. But they could also rob him of his speed prematurely which would diminish two of his tools (baserunning and fielding) and turn him into a Bell.

  4. Due to their depth at all positions at the mlb level they are in a great position to make a trade. I heard the White Sox want MLB ready bats and a MLB ready or close arm. I propose a trade that should fill needs on all sides. Glasnow obviously, Adam Frazier, utilty player that can flat out get on base, and Josh Bell for Quintana. White Sox get 2 major league bats and let’s face it Bell is a DH not a 1B or OF(at least not now ). The Pirates wouldn’t need Glasnow with Quintana under control for 4 years. Adam Frazier may be replaceable internally by Hansen or Moroff. The only Sting comes long term with Bell, but short term we have Freese and Jaso, and maybe long term Will Craig takes over at first.
    Maybe I’m too high on Frazier, but a guy that competitvely plays multiple positions and hit ( I know short time) already in majors should have decent value, in my opionion.

    • What about the relievers in AAA. Those guys should be nearly ready and as this off season has shown they have increased value.

      • I like neveraskus a lot. I think the pirates with Brault and Kuhl projecting to be bullpen also that they may be set.

  5. I would keep Meadows out of any trade talk and continue to look to trade McCutchen. Six years is better than two. How far has Glasnow fallen? From untouchable to dump him in any trade. Very sad. He should be their number 5 starter this year.

    • Glasnow reminds me of a lot of “million dollar arm-five cent head” guys I have seen in four plus decades of watching baseball. He doesn’t seem to get that he can’t strike out 12 and walk 6 while throwing 100 pitches in five innings is not going to make it in the Majors. To me, the only untouchable is Austin Meadows, due to the Cutch situation. With Cole Tucker on the horizon I don’t consider Newman as essential right now.

  6. Well, the Pirates have definitely underutilized their farm system and prospects in the past 3-4 years, by either trading them away in bad deals (Dickerson, McGuire, Ramirez, Broxton, Supak as some recent examples) or watching them wither on the vine to the point of having little value (Hanson and Diaz come to mind), so maybe trading away their top prospects is a better approach. So, trade Meadows, Glasnow, and Bell for Quintana – that should get it done.

    • Why do I still read your responses? Your post was actually very good and spot on, right up until you offer up Meadows, Bell and Glasnow for Q, that is just silly.

    • They’ve also traded guys for help. They traded Polo and Tarpley for Nova. Sampson for Happ. Borden for SeanRod. Joely Rodriguez for Bastardo. Herrera and Black for Byrd. I could go on.

      Every team has trades where they don’t get much in return for the prospects they dealt. Every team has prospects who decline in value in the system. And every team has trades where they send prospects away and get the help they need. The Pirates are no different.

    • To be fair, you can’t mention all of those examples without also mentioning all the successes: Marte, Polanco and Cole are all examples of prospects succeeding.

  7. The longer this Quintana trade scenario plays out makes me think that Hahn is asking for the moon and the Bucs are going to have to overpay. At this point let’s just keep our prospects and look for a back end starter and get on with it.

    • He should be setting the bar very high, but that does not mean we shouldn’t be willing to pay it. In order to win a championship, you need as many good major league baseball players as possible that you can fit into your budget limitations. If you can trade for Quintana without gutting your minor league system, then it is probably a good idea to make the trade.
      It is also very possible that all the teams in on Quintana have sent their best offers and the White Sox braintrust is sorting through each one to determine which deal they like the best. It is also very possible that as they sit down and look at the deals, they may also look at their roster and see that there is a chance they could be competitive next year and decide that it is in their best interest to hold on to Quintana. So, in essence, if the trade they would theoretically make doesn’t make them a better team over what they have with Quintana, there is no need to trade him.

      • Agree with most everything you’re saying here except the part of the white sox thinking they may be competitive next year. There’s very little chance that will happen nor in my opinion do the white sox think that that will happen.

  8. Will NH do something “insane” as he once postulated about a deal or will he be smart?

    I have no problem with putting Glasnow in the deal. It’s the other parts that would bother me. If we could put Holmes, Diaz and Tucker in the deal, EYE would do that, but I doubt Hahn would. I bet he, at least, wants Keller/Meadows AND TG.

    And, as a poster down below stated….Hahn is under zero pressure to move JQ. If he gets blown away, JQ gets moved. If not, he keeps him.

    As much as I would love to have JQ, I doubt NH will get “insane”.

  9. I would be okay with trading Glasnow in a deal for Quintana but would really prefer to hold onto Bell and Meadows. I consider them to be the “big three” and wouldn’t want to to part with more than one.

    Glasnow, Newman and a guy like Holmes would be a great deal for us…not sure it would be enough for the White Sox though.

    • I think the Pirates have always been higher on Newman than most in baseball. I don’t think he will be in any deal as the Pirates probably value him higher than the White Sox do. Glasnow, Holmes, maybe even Kingham and either Hayes or Craig is who the Pirates should be willing to deal.

  10. Meadows is an untouchable to me. Same for Keller. But Sox want a over payment for Quintana and some team may do that. The facts are he is a low 2 or 3 type arm and simply isn’t worth the best prospects. Supply/demand aside, there is a limit for trading everyday players for pitchers who see the field one day a week.

      • Borderline incoherent response …….again. So prospects deemed “untouchable” by a club should skip AA or AAA?

          • So in “Leo Talk” a PROVEN prospect in the MLB becomes untouchable……and I assume is no longer a prospect. After reading your two posts again you might want to take a couple days off.

            • I think what he is trying to say is that while a player is in the minors, they are not untouchable. They are there because they have things to work on. As such, they should never be deemed untouchable. Last year at this time, Glasnow was seen as 100% off limits in trades, this year, not so much. Nothing has changed with Glasnow, he still has top of the rotation potential, but now, everyone has seen that he has a lot to work on to reach that point.

    • yes there is, and it is determined by that player’s WAR or fWAR value. Quintana is worth roughly 5 fWAR per season over the last 4 seasons, it is logical to think, going forward, he will continue to be worth 5 fWAR per season, due in large part to his age and abilities. So, if a position player is not worth more than that value, he should not be off limits in a trade scenario.
      As far as Keller goes, lets temper the enthusiasm a bit. He has had 1 very good season, and 2 injury riddled seasons. Making him off limits in a trade is not very rational. I am not down on him, and I hope he turns into a very good pitcher, but he is still 2+ years away and a lot can happen in that time.

      • Pirates constraints whether real or BS still keep the Bucs from going all in and risking cheap young talent to go for a WC at best. Sorry it is apples and oranges in MLB. Trading Bell, Meadows or Keller for Quintana may sound good, but not in the grande scheme of where this team matches up with the Cubs who are still much better even with Quintana.

        • It is my opinion, and maybe not an opinion shared by anyone else, but with Quintana, I believe we would have a better rotation on paper than the Cubs. I agree that offensively the Pirates are inferior to the Cubs, but in a 5 or 7 game series, all it takes is for 1 pitcher to get hot and the team has a shot. By adding Quintana (which I now believe is nothing more than a pipedream) it gives the Pirates 3 top half of the rotation pitchers, to hope for that one to get hot instead of 2.

      • If the Pirates believe Kingham has returned from TJ he makes Keller more expendable. IMO. Sometime in the next year or two Cole is going to be talked about being traded. That could bring in additional pitchers.

        • Cole will be talked about heavily next offseason, I am surprised he wasn’t mentioned this offseason. Kingham and Keller are in two separate prospect tiers. Keller has a higher projectable upside than Kingham, and at this point they may have the same floor. I’m not sure Kingham makes Keller expendible, but Keller would make Kingham more expendible.

    • Not to mention a pitcher that has been an innings eater for what, four or five seasons? At what point is he going to go the way of most modern day pitchers–injury of some sort? Do you really want to part with anywhere from two to four top level prospects for at best a number two starting pitcher?

  11. But, after the haul the White Sox got for Adam Eaton, I think their asking for Meadows and Glasnow and Bell and Newman.

    There has to be a line and there is no need to be in a hurry, and Rick Haun knows public pressure is heavy on Neal Huntington.

    It’s a good thing that Neal could care less what the public thinks.

    • Even Rick Hahn knows he isn’t getting that for Quintana. That is at least 3.5X the value he got for Sale.

        • I agree with their position. In my opinion the White Sox shouldn’t trade Quintana. They can get additional youth from Frazier and Robertson and be in a position to compete in 2018-19, white Quintana is still under control.

        • No, he won’t get that. That is the return you can expect to get for Mike Trout, but not Jose Quintana, and every game that the White Sox have Quintana under contract, the return on him declines. So in essence, the return at the trade deadline will be less than he could get now.

      • All the pressure is on Nutting and Coonley. They need to give NH more money for payroll. While not cutting from other baseball areas.

    • Neal H. would have to be certifiably insane to trade those four prospects for Quintana, or anyone else for that matter. As I have stated before, if the Sox asking price is that high, then Neal needs to look for another trading partner.

  12. One of the big risks in trading prospects for a pitcher is injury. After the 1967 season, the Pirates traded three prospects including Don Money and a starting pitcher in Woody Fryman for one of the best pitchers in baseball in future Hall of Famer Jim Bunning. Bunning got off to a good start, but was injured and tried to play through the injury. He ended up 4-14. Woody Fryman alone ended up being more valuable than Bunning.

    Pitchers as a whole have this thing about getting injured. And statistics that show that a certain pitcher has been a workhorse do not always mean anything. For that matter, that usage might lead to the big arm injury after the trade takes place. It is difficult to predict when the big injury may take place.

    Look at Vernon Law and the years that he had in 1959 and 1960. Two great years including a Cy Young in 1960 as the best pitcher in baseball. He had a freak leg injury toward the end of the 60 season which lead to him not being able to finish games 1, 4, and 7 of the World Series when he departed each game with the lead. That leg injury led to an arm injury which derailed his career.

    Here was a guy who earlier in his career in 1955 pitched 18 innings in one game on 2 days rest…over 200 pitches in one game! ( I believe that the Pirates won the game in the 19th.) 18 innings in one game after pitching 10 innings the game before on two days rest. And four games after he pitched the 18 innings, he went 9 innings for a complete game win. So we are not looking at a fragile pitcher here.

    But after the the 60 season he would not be a star pitcher again except for 1965 towards the end of his career. What if a team would have traded for Law after the 1960 season and had to wait until 1965 for him to be a star again towards the end of his career?

    Trading for pitching can be a tricky thing.

    • Nice work Terry. I always liked Woody and did not want to see him traded. Although Bunning was a big name Woody would have been nice to keep for 12-15 years.

    • Very true, but the chances of Quintana remaining healthy and productive at his current level are higher right now than of Glasnow reaching his ceiling.

      Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux. Not that Quintana is on their level, but all are examples of pitchers that were traded and remained healthy and productive after the trade. Every trade has a degree of chance, but if you don’t ever make a trade to improve your major league team, your chance of success is diminished.

      • Agreed but that is why Glasnow for Quintana IS the trade. Glasnow is the Moncado here. The gravy should be C prospects ala Williams or Moroff. A second blue chipper is too much. Bell and Meadows are not dealable.

        • Absolutely correct, mitch t. ANY MORE THAN GLASNOW FROM OUR TOP TIER OF PROSPECTS WOULD BE INSANE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            • Glasnow, Meadows, Josh Bell, Mitch Keller, and Kevin Newman, would be the top tier prospects in my book. I am not saying that there are not more. I just think that those five are the ones that are the closest to being MLB ready.

    • Huntington actually spoke at Piratefest about this very issue and basically said statistics show the more innings pitched, the more likely a severe arm injury occurs down the road. He made these statements in response to a fan citing pitchers of the past pitching a lot of innings, and the Pirates limiting their pitchers.

    • I read that one of the main reasons the Sox should trade Q is because his value will never be higher. He could have an injury due to all the innings he has thrown the past four years.

      • He could, and so could Cole or Glasnow. The chance of injury should not be that big of a factor when making a trade, both teams are assuming risk.

    • terrygordon30, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU, for very eloquently and thoroughly articulating what I have been thinking all along, ever since the story broke that the Pirates were pursuing Quintana, and that the supposed cost would be two to three (at least) of the Bucs top tier prospects. Suffice it to say, we would all love to have Quintana in black and gold. But at what cost? There is no guarantee that he will continue to be the successful winning pitcher and innings eater for multiple years moving forward. I am not willing to part with any more than one of our top tier prospects to obtain Quintana, and Meadows and Bell are completely off limits. Again, THANK YOU FOR BEING A REFRESHING VOICE OF REASON HERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  13. How long can they stay at 41 on the 40 man roster? Is there a grace period or does the Nova contract info get sent by US mail to the league office? With all the USPS cutbacks they could be good for a while.

    • If I’m not mistaken they DFA’d Dragmire and Rogers and only added Ogando prior to the Nova signing, so they are at 40. May be wrong.

    • They have 30 days to file the Nova paperwork with the commissioners office from the day he signed. At lest that is the way I understood the Twitter conversation last night. So there isn’t a corresponding move that needs to be made immediately.

      It’s been a long time since the Pirates signed a FA with a full 40 man roster I guess.

    • I would assume it would be Ogando. Waiver claim when they dumped Rogers. My guess is they claimed him to try to sneak through waivers like Dragmire.

  14. The interesting thing about the CWS is they are trying to move Todd Frazier and Robertson as well, which means they teams they are discussing those two with could impact a Quintana deal indirectly depending on the return for each player.

  15. The Pirates are well set short and long term to make a trade for a guy like Quintana. The only other team that I see that can deal from an even stronger position would be the Yankees from their hauls in the Chapman and Miller Trades, and the fact that many of the $30 mil International Draft of 2014 are in the US now and starting to show promise.

    The CWS need pitching, catching, and a strong MI. Therefore, Glasnow is a must, and if I were them I would also request Kevin Newman, Elias Diaz, and Will Craig. They may want and ask for Meadows, Bell, and Keller, but that is the strength of our team moving forward. Newman is someone I would hate to lose, but they need a two-way affordable SS, and he is ready for the MLB in 2017.

    Max Moroff and Mitchell Tolman are two of our most underrated infielders.

    • Do the CWS really need a two-way affordable SS? They have Tim Anderson, who made his MLB debut last year. They could always move Newman or Anderson to 2B, but I think they have more of a need for impact hitters like Meadows or Bell…

      • They also just landed Yoan Moncado, #1 prospect in baseball. He will likely slide over to 2b to keep Anderson at SS

      • wtm: To be perfectly honest, the C and MI references came from the talking heads on MLB when the Quintana discussions started. With the revolving door that has been their existence lately, who knows? Anderson is strong except for the W/K numbers of 13/117.

        They got Moncada in the Sale trade, but maybe they do not want to rush him to the majors on a full time basis in 2017. I think the Red Sox brought him up for a short period of time in 2016 straight from AA. They would be well served to give him time in AAA and call him up only after he cannot accrue a year of MLB Service. Be nice to have him for 2 or 3 months in 2017 and then 6 years beginning in 2018. He does not turn 22 until May 2017.

      • I think Adam Frazier could fill that need and because he has already had a little success in the majors, he may just have his highest trade value right now.

    • You don’t draft for need and you don’t trade for need when it comes to prospects. Get best talent available. There’s no guarantee Moncada can stay in the IF. There’s no guarantee Lopez will be more than a reliever. It would be silly to take a lesser talent because you have a prospect for a specific position. I’d rather have multiple impact players at the same position that could change positions or be traded for other pieces. Get talent, worry about everything else later.

    • CWS just got Moncada from the Red Sox and their best prospect was a SS prior to their trades. Not sure they need much in middle inf help.

      • Glasnow, Meadows, and Keller, or quite frankly, any three of our top tier prospects, would be a huge overpay for Quintana. I think if the Sox demands are that high, then Neal H. should just abandon the whole idea, and look to trade with another team to get another established starting pitcher. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have Quintana. But not at that expense. I am not trading Meadows or Bell, for anyone, if I am Neal H. You can have Glasnow. I will consider Keller and Newman. That’s as far as I go, and I fervently hope that Neal H. feels the same way.
        The other thing that seems to be lost in this whole saga of obtaining Quintana is that he has been an innings eater for several years now. With the fragility of pitchers in this day and age, I am concerned as to how long he can keep up the pace that he has established. He may be a throwback to a by gone era of pitchers that throws 200 innings for 12 to 15 seasons. But then again, he may not, and I don’t want to spend multiple top tier prospects only to find that out after the fact.

        • Agree with everything you said. I have been concerned about wear and tear as well, given the price we’d be paying, and haven’t seen anyone bring it up.

    • I just heard Scott Merken, who covers the CWS for MLB, say that Haun wants 2 of an orginization’s Top 10 prospects and 2 more ” really ” good prospects. He also said the NYYs don’t think Quintana would do enough to move their needle in that Division to make that trade. Personally, Im not sure which org would make that move right now.

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