For about a week, it looked like the Pirates and Nationals were destined to make a trade that would send Andrew McCutchen to the Nationals, and according to Jon Heyman, they came close. They had a deal on the table involving Lucas Giolito, Dane Dunning, and a third player for McCutchen. Joel Sherman also reports they thought they were close to a deal on Tuesday night.
Pirates had possible deal on table of giolito, dunning and 3rd for cutch. Didn't happen.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 8, 2016
#Pirates believed Tues nite were on brink of dealing McCutchen to #Nationals for Giolito and Dunning
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 8, 2016
Now it appears that McCutchen will be staying in Pittsburgh, and the big decision they will have to make is whether to move him to a corner outfield spot.
McCutchen will be at pirates fest Saturday. Expectation is to keep him. They'll discuss possible move to rf or lf.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 8, 2016
First, let’s break down the potential trade. For about a week, they have been connected heavily to the Nationals, with Victor Robles being the big reported target. However, Heyman reported earlier today that the Pirates had been asking for Giolito as the main part of the deal, and hadn’t been insisting on Robles. The deal mentioned above is very similar to what the Nationals traded for Adam Eaton, except they gave up more for Eaton, including Reynaldo Lopez in the deal. Heyman mentions a third piece, but I think it would have been someone less than Lopez, otherwise, he’d be a guy mentioned in the deal.
It’s still hard to say where this deal broke down, but reading into those tweets, it seems like Washington just didn’t want to deal for McCutchen, or wanted to get him for cheap. Looking at the trade values, a package of Giolito, Dunning, and a third player was probably worth around $35-40 M, depending on the third player. That would put McCutchen at a 4.0-4.25 WAR value for each of his final two years.
By comparison, if he rebounds to a 6.0 WAR player, he’d be worth $34 M next off-season, giving them about the same trade value, with one extra year of McCutchen on the team. This all assumes he does rebound. If he doesn’t, and has another down year, then his trade value could go down to the point where they’d be lucky to get a guy like Reynaldo Lopez.
It seems like they were willing to go for Giolito as the main part of the return, and I think they kind of dodged a bullet here. Giolito only had 21 innings in the majors last year, which isn’t enough to form a solid opinion based on his stats (which weren’t good). But his velocity was down, his stuff didn’t have great spin, according to Statcast, and then there’s his injury history to consider. Giolito is still a top pitching prospect, but he seems like a guy who could easily be on his way down. That’s why I’ve been saying all week that I’d rather have Robles, and would only want Giolito as the second piece. If it was a return like the White Sox got, with Giolito and Lopez, it might be different, because a lot of reports have Lopez as the better prospect. But this deal just looked low for McCutchen.
This whole process is also the realization that McCutchen’s value is low. Andrew McCutchen is the face of the franchise. He’s a former MVP, and for the longest time he has been one of the best players in baseball. Fans will celebrate that the Pirates are keeping him, but that’s mostly because of what he has done. If McCutchen was still the player that Pirates fans believe he is, then it would have been an easy decision for the Nationals to give the Eaton return to the Pirates, or even trade Robles in a deal. But McCutchen doesn’t have that value anymore.
Some might think this is because of a down year in 2016, and the counter argument to that down year is that he did rebound in the final two months. But there are a lot of alarming trends, some of them spanning several years.
**McCutchen’s defense has been on a steady decline, with his range dropping each year since 2013, and taking a dive off a cliff last year. That lack of range is shown very well in the following comparison:
Interesting way to compare OF range is look at 25%-75% catch rate hit (green)/out (red) zones. Hamilton's overlaps. KK's is close. Cutch's.. pic.twitter.com/yo1EAvKpDH
— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 7, 2016
**McCutchen’s speed has been non-existent the last few years. He was attempting 30+ steals a year through the 2013 season. He dropped from 37 to 21 in 2014, then dropped to 16 in 2015, and down to 13 last year. Even worse, he went 6-for-13 in steal attempts last year, showing that in the rare instance when he attempted a steal, he was thrown out the majority of the time.
**McCutchen’s strikeouts have gone up each year since 2013. His numbers, starting in 2013: 15%, 17.7%, 19.4%, 21.2%
**McCutchen’s power has started to drop a bit. He was at a .228 ISO in 2014, dropped to .196 in 2015, and went to .174 last year. This could just be a one year thing, since his .196 in 2015 was a pretty normal number compared to other years.
**You also can’t ignore the slumps the last two years, which may have been due to injuries. He started slow the first two months of 2015, before rebounding and hiding that slump with four strong months. His slump in 2016 lasted four months, and he rebounded the final two years. He chalked the 2015 issues up to his knee, and there haven’t been any reasons given for the 2016 slump.
Overall, McCutchen is looking like a guy who is a defensive liability due to a lack of range, no longer has speed, is seeing his strikeouts increase (which will lead to a lower average and OBP), and has been prone to long slumps and injuries as he hits age 30. This is not the same McCutchen the Pirates saw a few years ago, and I think the rest of the league has noticed. Otherwise, he’d be a National right now, and we might be talking about a future with Victor Robles and Lucas Giolito.
So what do the Pirates do from here? For one, I don’t think there is a discussion to be had about moving him to a corner spot, except for the official discussion when they tell him he’s moving to a corner spot. He can no longer be given special treatment, and the ability to determine where he will play on the field. In order for the Pirates to maximize his value, they need to minimize his weakness, and that involves a position change.
Maybe this entire experience will also light a fire under him, and allow him to reverse the trends. It’s one thing to be upset over your team trying to trade you. It’s another thing when you realize that you didn’t have much value, and another team traded a bigger package of prospects to upgrade to Adam Eaton. I can’t say the Nationals were wrong on that one either, but maybe McCutchen will be determined to show that they were wrong about him.
Unfortunately, the stats and the trends don’t suggest this will happen. We might be looking back a year from now, wishing the Pirates got value for McCutchen when his value was higher, and before another down year. The Pirates did attempt that, but it looks like they might have already been too late.
