Every year when FanGraphs releases the ZiPS projections for the Pirates, I do an article where I take the WAR projections, combined with my analysis on the expected playing time, and come up with an expected win total. This process started in 2013 and continued each season after that. The projections always came in higher than most other projections, but were usually the same or lower than the actual win total by the end of the season.

That was true at least for the first three seasons. Last year's projection had 89 wins, and almost everything possible that could have gone wrong went wrong. That's part of what makes a projection system so good though. At the end of the season, we were able to look back and see who fell shy of their projections (Summary: 90% of the team), and how that im...

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