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Pirates Notebook: Josh Bell is Showing a Lot of Encouraging Signs

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NEW YORK – I’ve written about Josh Bell in each of the last two days to highlight his offense and his defense. Both of those mentions were brief, serving as the second part of each notebook. I wanted to take a chance to expand on Bell’s progress today, as I’ve been encouraged by what I’ve seen from him on both sides of the ball.

The big issue coming into the year of course was the defense. I noted yesterday that Bell is starting to progress into a nine inning player at first base, although he’s not quite there yet. I asked Clint Hurdle if Bell was transitioning to that role, and he said that they were starting to push him in that direction, but still had better options defensively.

“I see him as improving,” Hurdle said. “I also know that we have two other guys who are better defensively across the board with experience. So it’s a combination of the two, how you push it, when you add on to it.”

The last two games have been complete games for Bell. The first game saw a four and five run lead in the late innings, and the second game saw the Pirates behind by two. He also was double-switched in to a game last week with the Pirates trailing late. Essentially, when it comes to Bell’s defense, he is the Wade LeBlanc of first base. He’s only going to see the eighth inning if the Pirates are up by four or down by two. Otherwise, they’ll go to a “closer”, switching to a better defensive option like John Jaso.

I don’t have a big issue with this approach. Bell is playing when the team needs offense, and he’s out when the team needs defense. The question going forward is whether he can do both.

He had a horrible showing in his debut last year, posting a -32.8 UZR/150 and a -3 Defensive Runs Saved. So far this year he has a +3 DRS and a -6.0 UZR/150. Both are big improvements over last year, but still leave room for him to improve. We’re also talking about small sample sizes in each case, with 543.2 innings total. You typically want a few seasons of data to get a good feel for the accuracy of defensive metrics. So from a metrics standpoint, we’re not going to get a good feel for whether Bell should be playing late until maybe this time next year.

The good thing is that Bell continues improving. He ranks 22nd out of 26 qualified first basemen in UZR/150, and fourth in DRS. Those are two opposite ends of the spectrum, and I have a feeling that he’s likely in the middle, a bit in the lower half of that group. I felt last year that the best case scenario would be that he would become a below-average guy, to the point where he’s not taking much away from his offense. He’s pretty much getting to that point now.

The Offense Also Improving

Speaking of the offense, the surface numbers aren’t as good as last year, with a .227/.308/.459 line in 208 plate appearances. But he’s showing some good signs, with key adjustments. One of those adjustments came this weekend, when he switched his batting stance in his second at-bat on Friday, and immediately had success. He hit two home runs in his next four at-bats with the approach, and will be sticking with the new stance until he needs another change.

That’s one of the most impressive things about Bell at the plate. He’s always adjusting things with his stance, but he’s good enough with it that he can make an adjustment in the game. That’s not leading to great results from a batting average standpoint, although his .238 BABIP should improve. The overall numbers are being dragged down by a poor month of May, which saw his line drive rate go down and his ground ball rate go up. The hope is that the recent adjustment will get him back to his April numbers, when he had an .815 OPS.

What really looks good right now is his .232 ISO. Bell has always been a guy projected for big power numbers, and the power has been slowly entering his game the last few years. His current pace, over a 550 at-bat season, would have him topping 30 home runs and 30 doubles. The last Pirates hitter to reach both of those totals in a single year was Jason Bay in 2005 (Andrew McCutchen had 31 homers and 29 doubles in 2012).

Bell is showing the power everyone hoped he would have when he was drafted. He just made an adjustment that will hopefully see a rebound from his poor month of May, and the early results have been encouraging. And he continues to show improvements with his defense. Overall, the theme surrounding Bell is that he keeps showing encouraging signs across the board, which should make him a fun player to watch the rest of the year.

Francisco Cervelli Returns to the Lineup

Francisco Cervelli returns tonight after missing the last two days with a sinus issue and migraines. Gregory Polanco gets a day off.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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