Ivan Nova currently has a 3.87 ERA and a 4.06 xFIP. For a free agent signing on a three-year, $26 M deal, those aren't bad surface numbers. He's making about $8.5 M per year on average, and is currently worth 1.5 fWAR, with the typical $/WAR figure for free agents coming in at $8-9 M now. Nova has provided more than the value of his 2017 contract already.

If you dig a bit deeper into Nova's numbers, you see a concerning trend that is developing. Through his start on June 11th, he had a 2.83 ERA and a 4.00 xFIP. The advanced metrics weren't far off where he is for the season, and the higher ERA is due to a low BABIP (.262) and a high strand rate (76.7%). Nova's totals last year with the Pirates in both of those categories were .318 and 68.7%, which is closer to the typical league average...

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