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Williams: What Does an Altoona Championship Mean For the Future of the Pirates?

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My very first season covering this organization, I watched the Lynchburg Hillcats win the Carolina League championship. The organization was pretty grim at the time in terms of prospects, and seeing that young team with most of the prospects in the organization winning it all was a sign of hope.

The next year, many players from that same team went on to repeat their success, winning a championship with the Altoona Curve.

The Pirates’ system has gotten much better since the 2009-2010 era. It peaked during the 2013-2014 years, but is still a strong group, with a lot of highly projectable guys in the lower levels. And history is starting to repeat itself in the upper levels, with the High-A and Double-A teams going back-to-back once again.

Last year the Bradenton Marauders won their first Florida State League championship, and the first High-A championship for the Pirates since Lynchburg in 2009. And last night, many of those same players went on to help Altoona win the Eastern League title, which was the first one since that 2010 championship.

Minor league team results don’t always give an indicator of the talent on the team. You can load a minor league team up with organizational players and watch them steamroll over the legit prospects who are a few years younger and still developing. You can put a loaded prospect group on a team and see them get destroyed as they work to develop their game.

The thing that’s encouraging about this group is that they’re mostly made up of legit prospects with a shot at reaching the majors. It was the same deal in Bradenton last year, and the same for the handful of players who were on the 2015 Morgantown championship team.

It was also the same way with the 2009 Lynchburg/2010 Altoona teams. They weren’t teams from the Dave Littlefield days, loaded with age-25 and 26 guys in High-A. They had legit prospects who could, and eventually did, help in the majors.

So what did that last group provide?

Not every prospect is going to make it to the majors, even from Double-A. So many of the players on that 2010 team either washed out, or made it to the majors in smaller roles.

Matt Hague, Andrew Lambo, Daniel Moskos, and Rudy Owens were a few guys who made it to the majors for a brief amount of time. Owens was actually traded to Houston in the Wandy Rodriguez deal, then saw his career derailed by injuries.

Chase d’Arnaud and Gorkys Hernandez still find themselves sticking around with various teams as bench depth options in the majors.

The results from that team largely came from the Altoona rotation. Tony Watson and Jared Hughes were starters on that team. Hughes went on to be a reliable middle reliever for a few years, while Watson became one of the best relievers in baseball for a stretch. Bryan Morris became a middle reliever, and still holds that role in the majors. Justin Wilson turned into a strong reliever, and the Pirates eventually traded him for Francisco Cervelli.

The only pitcher to have lasting starting success on that team was Jeff Locke, who made some legit contributions to the 2013-2015 Pirates run, putting up a combined 3.98 ERA and 4.02 xFIP in 466 innings during that three-year stretch.

On the position player side, there were two lasting contributors from that 2010 championship team. Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer played for both the Lynchburg and Altoona champions, and then went on to become the starting middle infield in Pittsburgh. At their best, they are average starters at their positions. We’re seeing close to the best from Harrison this year, and saw him provide a big boost in 2014 during his breakout season. Mercer is also having a relatively strong year this year, which puts him just below average for big league shortstops.

That 2010 Altoona team didn’t provide lasting star power. But it would be hard to imagine the Pirates having the same type of success from 2013-2015 without the contributions of Mercer, Harrison, Locke, Watson, Hughes, Wilson, Morris, and others from that group.

This doesn’t mean the 2017 Altoona team will follow the same suit. This is a much different team, with some of the top prospects in the organization. This championship team was led by Mitch Keller on the mound, while the 2010 group didn’t have a prospect of the same caliber. The current team also had Cole Tucker, who is higher rated and has more upside than anyone from that 2010 position player group.

Beyond those two, this championship team has prospects similar to that 2010 group. You might get a back of the rotation starter and a few relievers from guys like JT Brubaker, Brandon Waddell, Alex McRae, Tanner Anderson, Austin Coley, and so on. The position player group could provide an additional starter beyond Tucker, with the lead candidate being Kevin Kramer. There could also be some bench players from guys like Mitchell Tolman, Jin-De Jhang, Wyatt Mathisen, and so on.

The group of prospects from the Bradenton/Altoona champions aren’t going to build the next winning Pirates team single-handed. That wasn’t the case with the 2009/2010 group contributing to the 2013-2015 success. But this is a group that can help, providing some players who will be key to that next successful Pirates team. And that help might start arriving in the second half of 2018, with hopes that some of the bigger prospects will be able to contribute in the majors for most of the 2019 season.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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