Prior to every season, I do a projection article where I take the ZiPS player projections, adjust them to the expected playing time for every position on the Pirates’ roster, and get a total win projection.
That projection tends to be more optimistic than any other pre-season projection. From 2013-2015, the Pirates actually out-performed my projection article. The last two years, they fell short.
The best part of the article is that we can look back and see where the Pirates exceeded their projections, or where they fell short. The 2013-2015 articles were all about seeing where they exceeded projections, while last year saw almost every single player falling short. This year was similar to last year, with a lot of players struggling to reach their pre-season projections.
I did this year’s prediction in January, after the ZiPS projections came out. There were a lot of moves that happened after this projection, such as Jung Ho Kang missing the season with visa issues or Starling Marte getting suspended for 80 games. I kept the original projections, because the Pirates were a 90-win team in that study with Kang and Marte, and I wanted to see how much of what went wrong was due to them, and how much was due to other players.
Here were the results for each position:
Catcher
The catching position was projected for a 2.6 WAR combined, with Francisco Cervelli making up most of that. Cervelli was projected by ZiPS to have a 2.0 WAR in 349 plate appearances. I didn’t want to adjust his playing time up, due to his injury history, and that was a smart move. He actually had 304 plate appearances due to injuries, but only had an 0.9 WAR in that time.
Chris Stewart and Elias Diaz were expected to fill in the rest of the time, combining for an 0.6 WAR over 297 plate appearances. Stewart and Diaz actually combined for 344 plate appearances, but had a dismal -0.9 WAR, which wiped out the production from Cervelli. The only saving grace here was that Jacob Stallings was worth 0.2 WAR in his limited playing time, giving the overall position a positive value.
Cervelli fell about a win shy of his projection, and Stewart and Diaz were below replacement level, putting the catching position 2.4 WAR under the pre-season projection.
Infield
Going forward, I will be listing the pre-season projection, followed by the actual results, with analysis to follow.
Josh Bell – 1.6 projection / 0.8 actual
Josh Harrison – 2.2 / 2.6
Jordy Mercer – 1.4 / 1.4
Jung Ho Kang – 3.2 / 0
The projections came out when there was still a chance for Jung Ho Kang to play with the Pirates this year. The infield came close to their projections, with Harrison performing slightly better, and Mercer’s projection being dead-on accurate. Josh Bell got half of his value, falling 0.8 WAR shy.
But the problem here was that Kang was supposed to be a big producer on this team, and his visa problems prevented that. Combined with the rest of the infield, that led to the results being 3.6 WAR shy of the projections.
Outfield
Andrew McCutchen – 4.1 / 3.7
Starling Marte – 3.8 / 1.2
Gregory Polanco – 2.6 / 0.5
Andrew McCutchen struggled for long periods this season, but still came within half a win of his projections. Starling Marte received an 80-game suspension for PEDs, falling 2.6 WAR short of his projections. Gregory Polanco dealt with injuries all year, and was 2.1 WAR shy of his projections.
In total, these three outfielders were 5.1 WAR below their projections. The bigger problem here is that this is an area where the Pirates have excelled in the past, getting extra value. The hope was that McCutchen could return to a 6 WAR player, or that Marte could continue being more than a 4 WAR player, or that Polanco could finally break out above the 2.6 WAR performances in the past. So not only did the Pirates lose five expected wins here, but they also didn’t see the excess they were hoping for to make up for other positions.
The Bench
David Freese – 1.4 / 1.6
Adam Frazier – 0.3 / 1.1
John Jaso – 0.4 / 0.3
Alen Hanson – 0.6 / -0.3
Austin Meadows – 1.2 / 0
Other – 0 / -1.5
The Pirates got some good production from their bench players overall. David Freese performed slightly higher than his projection. Adam Frazier was 0.8 WAR higher than his projection, making up for Alen Hanson being 0.9 WAR below his projection. John Jaso was also right on with a minimal value.
There are two problems here. First is that the projection for Freese factored him in as a bench player. If he was going to be needed to make up more time at first or third base — which happened with Kang missing the season — then he was going to be expected to provide more value. It wouldn’t have been a huge boost, maybe adding another win to the team, and he didn’t get that as a starter. So while he matched his projections, he should have been higher, due to the increased role.
The Pirates were also supposed to see better depth, mostly fueled by Austin Meadows, who didn’t show up due to injuries. Meadows was projected for a 1.2 WAR in his limited time. The remaining bench players combined for a -1.5 WAR, although most of these players were guys who were called up in the final two months when the season was already over.
The bench played close to expectations, although the depth didn’t help the Pirates, putting them about 2.7 WAR short of the Meadows-fueled expectations.
The Rotation
Originally I had a rotation projected with Steven Brault as the number five starter, Tyler Glasnow as the top depth option, and Drew Hutchison getting the remaining innings. Trevor Williams threw a wrench into this, so I factored that in below.
Gerrit Cole – 3.1 / 3.1
Jameson Taillon – 2.7 / 2.9
Ivan Nova – 2.0 / 1.9
Chad Kuhl – 1.0 / 1.9
Steven Brault – 1.4 / 0.2
Tyler Glasnow – 2.1 / -0.6
Drew Hutchison – 0.4 / 0
Trevor Williams – 0 / 2.2
Most of the projections were right on for the top four starters. Cole was accurate at a 3.1 WAR. Taillon was slightly above his projection, and Nova was 0.1 WAR shy of his. Chad Kuhl outperformed his projection by almost a full win. Overall, the top four starters were 1.0 WAR above projections.
Brault, Glasnow, and Hutchison were projected for a combined 3.9 WAR in the fifth starter and depth roles. They actually combined for a -0.4 WAR, with Glasnow doing a lot of damage here with his poor performance throughout the year. Williams made up for this with a 2.2 WAR, although the Pirates were still 2.1 WAR shy when it came to their fifth starter and depth options. That negated the extra value provided by the top four starters.
The Pirates were projected for a 12.7 WAR in the rotation, and finished with an 11.6 WAR from the above players. In the past, they’ve found a lot of extra value in the rotation, with players performing well above expectations. So not only were they a win shy, but just like the outfield, this is another area where they didn’t see anyone exceed expectations to make up for other areas.
The Bullpen
It’s hard to project a bullpen in January, although most of the Pirates moves were predictable. I had Jared Hughes in this projection, and he was released during Spring Training. I combined the extra relievers into an “Other” group.
Tony Watson – 0.9 / -0.1
Felipe Rivero – 0.6 / 2.1
Daniel Hudson – 0.0 / 0.1
Juan Nicasio – 0.4 / 1.2
Jared Hughes – 0.3 / 0
Wade LeBlanc – 0.6 / 0.1
Other – 1.5 / -1.2
Tony Watson was replacement level this year prior to being traded. It’s a bit of a surprise that the Pirates got such an interesting prospect for him in Oneil Cruz, despite these struggles. That 1.0 WAR loss in value was made up for by Felipe Rivero, who exceeded his projections by 1.5 WAR. Juan Nicasio also exceeded his projections by 0.8 WAR. This made up for the loss in 0.8 WAR between LeBlanc and Hughes.
The remaining relievers combined for a -1.2 WAR, which was 2.7 WAR shy of the positive value the remaining guys had in projections. There were two big culprits here, as Antonio Bastardo and Joaquin Benoit combined for -0.9 WAR. That more than negated positive value from guys like George Kontos, A.J. Schugel, and Jack Leathersich, who combined for 0.5 WAR in the final two months.
The bullpen was projected for a 4.3 WAR overall. They ended up with a 2.2 WAR, falling two wins short of the projection. Just like the rotation, this is another area where the Pirates have been expected to find extra value in the past, making their shortage even worse.
Summary
The biggest trend that you’ll notice is that very few players exceeded their projections. Felipe Rivero was the best story on the team, becoming an impact reliever, the fourth most valuable pitcher on the team, and exceeding projections by 1.5 WAR. Trevor Williams was also a nice surprise with a 2.2 WAR, after not really factoring into the discussion in January.
Outside of those two, Chad Kuhl was 0.9 WAR above his projection, Adam Frazier and Juan Nicasio were each 0.8 WAR above their projections, and the next big gainer was Josh Harrison, who was 0.4 WAR above his projection.
That’s just not enough to make up for the loss in value the Pirates saw elsewhere. In fact, the 6.6 WAR increase from those six players was negated by Kang missing the season (3.2 WAR lost), Marte’s suspension and struggles (2.6 WAR lost), and Meadows not arriving (1.2 WAR lost). That doesn’t even get into the catchers losing two and a half wins, Polanco losing two wins, or the bench and bullpen depth combining for -2.7 WAR overall.
The Pirates struggled in 2016 with almost all of their players falling short of projections. They actually had a good amount of players meeting their projections in 2017. The problem is that they still had some players falling short, and just didn’t see the same thing on the opposite site with players exceeding projections. The latter was what led them to out-perform the ZiPS projections in my study from 2013-2015.
The sections above combined for a loss in 15.9 expected wins. The Pirates were projected for 90 wins before the season, and ended with 75 wins. If you’re looking for the reason they didn’t contend this year, look no further than the losses above.
The Pirates can’t expect everyone to play up to their projections every year. But going forward, they need to find some players who will perform above expectations, in order to make up for the losses that they will inevitable see from injured players, or struggling players.
