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FanGraphs Releases 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates ZiPS Projections

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FanGraphs has released Dan Szymborski’s annual ZiPS projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates, giving an early look at what is expected from everyone on the team in 2018. The ZiPS releases can come anywhere from the start of the offseason to late January, and the timing of the release gives a different perspective on the team’s projections.

In this case, the projections are being released on day one of the MLB Winter Meetings, which means we get a unique look at where the Pirates stand both before and after they make any offseason moves. I typically do a separate projection, analyzing the playing time and ZiPS projections for each player. That will come later. For now, I wanted to point out the most notable things in today’s projections.

**They pointed out that the 2017 offense fell short in large part to Jung Ho Kang and Starling Marte combining to fall 4.8 WAR shy of their projections. Those weren’t the only sources, but the biggest drop.

**Every position, with the exception of third base, is projected for 2+ WAR. However, they caution that there is very little margin for error, with the possibility of an average offense if things go right.

**Andrew McCutchen is leading the team, but with a 3.4 WAR. By comparison, McCutchen was projected for a 6.0 WAR in the 2016 ZiPS projections just two years ago.

**Starling Marte is projected for a 2.6 WAR. Prior to this past season, he had been around a 4+ WAR player on average. I’d expect him to get back to those totals.

**Of the interesting players seeing an increase in their expected production over 2017 totals: Gregory Polanco (2.3 WAR), Josh Bell (1.7), Francisco Cervelli (1.3). Polanco and Cervelli have reached those totals before in prior years.

**Rookies who are projected in the top 13 position players: Austin Meadows (1.8 WAR), Kevin Newman (1.3), Jordan Luplow (1.1), Elias Diaz (0.9). It’s interesting that these projections have Newman just 0.2 WAR behind Jordy Mercer, and Diaz just 0.4 WAR behind Cervelli. But I wouldn’t make a switch based solely on those projections.

**If the Pirates switch from Josh Harrison to Sean Rodriguez and Max Moroff, ZiPS projects it won’t go well. Harrison is projected for a 2.1 WAR, while Rodriguez and Moroff are both at 0.4. That comes from 244 plate appearances for Rodriguez, but 474 for Moroff.

**On the pitching side, ZiPS projects 2+ WAR for Gerrit Cole (3.4), Jameson Taillon (2.7), and Ivan Nova (2.2). That’s actually only an increase of 0.4 WAR over the actual results in 2017. Meanwhile, they have Trevor Williams (1.0) and Chad Kuhl (0.8) combining for 1.8 WAR. Both of those pitchers topped that combined total individually in 2017, combining for 4.1 WAR.

**Felipe Rivero obviously gets the highest marks out of the bullpen. Of the remaining expected relievers, George Kontos (0.7) is the only one above an 0.5 WAR projection.

**In terms of pitching depth, Tyler Glasnow (1.9 WAR), Steven Brault (1.2), and Nick Kingham (0.9) are the best starters of the most realistic options for 2018. However, ZiPS is always high on Glasnow, and he hasn’t come close to those totals, with no signs that he’ll be that successful in 2018.

**I generally don’t put any stock at all in projections from players below Triple-A. That’s why I’m ignoring projections for Tanner Anderson (1.0), Mitch Keller (1.0), Ke’Bryan Hayes (0.8), and other minor leaguers.

Tim Williams
Tim Williams
Tim is the owner, producer, editor, and lead writer of PiratesProspects.com. He has been running Pirates Prospects since 2009, becoming the first new media reporter and outlet covering the Pirates at the MLB level in 2011 and 2012. His work can also be found in Baseball America, where he has been a contributor since 2014 and the Pirates' correspondent since 2019.

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