Williams: Analyzing the Gerrit Cole Trade, and Wondering if the Pirates Are Still in No Man’s Land

I figured the Pirates would end up trading Gerrit Cole at the worst possible time for me. That ended up being with my best friends in town for the weekend, and right when the first of our all-you-can-eat sushi was delivered to the table. I got the alert, saw four names in return, including a few I was already familiar with, and in between bites I was studying up. Needless to say, there’s a lot to digest here. And then there’s the breakdown of the trade.

I had some instant thoughts on the trade, with the immediate reaction being that the Pirates didn’t get enough. I also had the feeling that they might have some nice MLB pieces, and could be successful in a quantity approach. But that raises the question of whether they’re trying to compete in the short-term, and in a sense, if they’re trying to remain in No Man’s Land.

I’m not going to provide any immediate takes, and this isn’t going to be a traditional column where you know what my stance is at first, and then I break down why that’s my stance. Instead, I’m going to walk through each part of the deal, and come to a conclusion at the end, which is basically what I do for every trade and every transaction, except that you don’t see my work as blatantly.

So here we go…

Gerrit Cole

I feel like I don’t need to describe Gerrit Cole, although I do need to give my stance on him, since opinions on him were so split. He was one of the top pitchers in the game from 2013-2015 by the numbers, and that’s not something you can objectively argue, unless your definition of top pitchers is limited to 5-10 players. He didn’t return to those numbers, due to injuries in 2016 and due to home runs in 2017. I could see him bouncing back in the future, with the home run problem and health not being as big of issues. He was the biggest trade chip the Pirates had, and while his value might have been lowered, I still think it was pretty high, and he was seen as a potential impact pitcher.

Colin Moran

I don’t know how the trade breaks down in terms of who to prioritize first, but I’m going with Moran, since his ability to play third base is the most interesting. The Pirates only have one long-term third base option, and that is Ke’Bryan Hayes, who will start the 2018 season in Double-A. I think Hayes could be more than an average third baseman, with breakout potential if his power increases. But I don’t believe in putting your eggs in one prospect basket, which is why adding a guy like Moran is a good move.

There could be some sleeper potential here, based on Moran’s stats in the last year. He greatly increased his power in 2017, hitting for a .235 ISO in Triple-A, with his previous minor league best being a .153 ISO in Double-A in 2015, and most years ending up around a .100-.110 ISO. The best part was that he added this power while seeing a decrease in his strikeouts, and while maintaining a good average and walk rate. These changes came due to an overhaul of his swing, aimed at going for more lift and better launch angle. There would be questions about whether Moran can continue this going forward, as his results are limited to half a season of at-bats which came in the hitter friendly PCL. There’s also the question of how much drop off in the numbers he will see.

There’s nothing holding Moran back from being the starting third baseman going forward. David Freese has shown that he’s not durable enough to be a starter, and the Pirates will be rebuilding and hoping for a quick reload, with Moran now being an important piece of that reload. If he can show that the 2017 numbers were the real deal, and something he can carry over to the majors, then that’s a big addition for the Pirates, getting a third baseman with a promising bat for the next six seasons.

Joe Musgrove

Musgrove didn’t have the best numbers in the Houston rotation last year, but did put up strong numbers in the bullpen. You’d have to think that the Pirates would want him as a starter, although I’d have questions about the need to add another starter. They have a lot of options in Triple-A or just making the jump to the majors. Musgrove adds to that depth, and you obviously can never have enough pitching. But to me, Musgrove only adds to that depth. He doesn’t give the Pirates a guy who can be better than a back of the rotation guy, and it might even be questionable that he could remain a starter. His fastball had good velocity, but was hit around, while his slider showed some strong results.

He’ll give the Pirates more depth in either the rotation or the bullpen, and my question after this move is whether they could use that added depth to move Ivan Nova and go with a young rotation next year. The big issue with the rotation is that they now lack top of the rotation options, which is a problem that should be solved when Mitch Keller arrives, possibly in 2019. That’s more an issue with the team, rather than this trade.

Michael Feliz

Feliz makes me think of a right-handed Felipe Rivero at the time of that deal, and the Pirates can only hope things turn out that way. He’s got velocity, getting his fastball up to 99.5 MPH and averaging 96.2. He’s got a slider that can be a dangerous strikeout pitch, leading to a 32.1% strikeout rate last year. The problem is that his control is poor, and he walks 10% of the batters he faces. He’s also had issues with the long ball.

Rivero also had control issues, and the Pirates got him to trust that his stuff was good enough and attack the zone with it. That’s not an easy feat, and for every Rivero success story, there are plenty of examples where a player didn’t figure it out. If Feliz can figure it out, then the Pirates have a dangerous duo in the late innings with Rivero and Feliz. And honestly, if there’s one area where the Pirates should get some optimism that things will work out, it’s in the bullpen, adding a late inning arm and hoping everything clicks for him to pitch in the late innings.

Jason Martin

The Pirates have Austin Meadows as their outfielder of the future in Triple-A. They have some interesting outfield prospects set to make the jump to West Virginia this year. But if Meadows doesn’t work out, or if Gregory Polanco continues to have injury issues, then there’s a long wait until one of those younger guys arrives. Martin gives the Pirates an interesting outfield prospect in the middle of that pack. He’s been hitting for a lot of power for the last two years, and carried that over to Double-A. His strikeout rate has some concerns, but isn’t out of the ordinary for a power hitter. His walk rate dropped this year, and that will be something he needs to maximize value going forward.

Martin is a center fielder, but there are questions about whether he’d stick at the position. Honestly, he doesn’t need to stick there in the Pirates’ system, and his power looks like it could handle a corner. However, Baseball America pointed out that some evaluators don’t see him having enough power for a corner spot. He went unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft, although I think that speaks more to him not being ready for the majors, and being unlikely to be protected all year at this stage. It’s impossible to say how the Pirates evaluated these guys in the trade, but I think it’s easy to assume that Martin is more of an extra and a wild card, rather than part of the main return.

What Did the Pirates Get?

It’s hard to not sound optimistic when writing about prospects and young players, because the nature of the writing is that you’re talking about what the players could become if most goes right. But the unsaid thing in every evaluation is that nothing is guaranteed, and you can’t count on every player to work out. I do think the Pirates got some good pieces here, with some upside.

Moran could be a starting third baseman, with the chance for an impact bat if last year was the real deal.

Musgrove seems like a back of the rotation starter, and might have the chance to be a middle of the rotation guy if all goes well. But that might be too optimistic, or expecting too much to go well.

It’s hard to avoid the Feliz-Rivero comparisons, and avoid dreaming about what that combo could become.

And Martin provides an interesting outfielder who might have a shot at hitting his way to being a starting option at the corners.

But you need to look at the other side of things in each of these cases.

What if Moran doesn’t stick at third, or doesn’t carry his offense over to the majors?

What if Musgrove can’t be a starter, and is limited to being a reliever?

What if Feliz doesn’t improve his control? (The answer here is that he’s a capable reliever, but a guy who could be so much more, which would be a frustrating situation.)

What if Martin ends up only a bench player at best, due to the lack of walks and the reports about his power not matching the stats?

The reality is that these scenarios will end up somewhere in the middle. Not everything will work out, and not everything will go wrong. The key is getting the right mixture of things that go right. And looking at this deal, I think one player is the key to the success: Colin Moran.

I don’t see Musgrove being more than a back of the rotation starter. I could see Feliz being a good late-inning reliever. And Martin is a wild card. But if Moran doesn’t work out, then I don’t think any of those players can do enough to really headline this deal. It seems the Pirates have two good potential complementary pieces here, and one guy who could be an average or better third baseman, with the value of the deal largely being carried by Moran.

When you’re trading your biggest trade chip, you can’t afford a bad return. This is a fan base that complained daily about parting ways with Juan Nicasio a month early, and complained everyday for a year about salary dumping Francisco Liriano. The Pirates and Neal Huntington will never live it down if the Cole trade doesn’t work out. And their chances really revolve around Moran for this deal to be really successful.

Are We Still in No Man’s Land?

My thought when seeing this deal was that the Pirates may not be out of No Man’s Land just yet. As in, they might not be committing one way or another on a rebuild versus going for it approach.

It’s hard to avoid that thought when the biggest piece of the trade appears to be an MLB-ready third baseman.

It’s hard to avoid that thought when the next two pieces are guys in the majors who have seen some adjustment issues.

It’s hard to avoid that when the lowest level prospect is a guy in Double-A with limited upside, rather than a lower level lottery ticket like the Pirates got with Oneil Cruz in the Tony Watson trade last year.

Granted, this might be a bit unfair. Moran was set to be rated the number nine prospect in Baseball America’s upcoming rankings. But if his numbers from last year are legit, you’d have to argue him up that list. And he’s technically a prospect, so the Pirates did get a prospect in this deal. But this does make you wonder whether they could have gotten some lower level guys with higher upside — basically committing to a rebuild and doing something similar to what teams like the White Sox have done in recent years.

This trade kind of fills some needs for the Pirates. They’ve now got a third baseman of the future, which was a question mark heading into the off-season. They have another starting pitching option, which isn’t the biggest need, but something you can’t have enough of. They have a potential pairing for Felipe Rivero in the late innings. And they boosted their outfield depth in the minors.

The problem with filling needs in a trade is that you have to look at it in one of two ways. Either it’s just a convenient coincidence that they managed to get some of their biggest needs filled in this deal — in a trade with a team that had better ranked prospects who didn’t play positions of need. Or, it’s the worst case, where they’re still trying to contend while rebuilding, and taking a lower return in the process.

I feel this question will be unanswered until we see how other moves shake out. What will happen with Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison? Will they be traded or retained, and will those trade returns be similar deals where MLB-ready talent is the return?

It could very well be that this deal works out for the Pirates, and it’s just coincidental that it happened to fill some of their needs. But the problem right now is that we still don’t have an answer to whether the Pirates are out of No Man’s Land, and unfortunately we have another sign that they could still be in the middle, not really committing one way or the other.

Tim started Pirates Prospects in 2009 from his home in Virginia, which was 40 minutes from where Pedro Alvarez made his pro debut in Lynchburg. That year, the Lynchburg Hillcats won the Carolina League championship, and Pirates Prospects was born from Tim's reporting along the way. The site has grown over the years to include many more writers, and Tim has gone on to become a credentialed MLB reporter, producing Pirates Prospects each year, and will publish his 11th Prospect Guide this offseason. He has also served as the Pittsburgh Pirates correspondent for Baseball America since 2019. Behind the scenes, Tim is an avid music lover, and most of the money he gets paid to run this site goes to vinyl records.

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tonyframpton

The Pirates have settled into a “go for the wild card every year” mode. If there is no increase in budget, like most of us want, that’s where we will remain. I don’t really have a problem with that. I don’t want a complete teardown and rebuild just to hope for a 2-3 year window in 2020 or so – I’d rather be on the fringes of the playoffs year in year out then to suck for a few, and hope for future success. The current FO has done a good job getting us out of the 20 losing streak forest. This is the new normal (until the payroll sees a 20% bump).

jaygray007

Is it unreasonable to just hope they leave Musgrove in the bullpen where he was near-elite?

Feliz has the stuff to be the same.

What if the strategy is to sell *them* at the deadline if they’re out of it…

Jason B

I prefer Moran to Clint Frazier. I am hopeful he will hit like Josh Bell. I don’t think Frazier will be nearly as good. Glad they did not trade with Yankees.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

Given their differences in ages and where they’ve advanced so far in their careers, I don’t see how you can prefer Moran over Frazier? I was not a big fan of getting Frazier for Cole, but he is 2-3 years younger than Moran and has played a lot more in the majors than Moran has. Moran also played in the PCL last year, which always inflates hitter’s numbers.

Obviously, Moran could turn out to be a late bloomer and become a good ML starting third baseman, but that is more of a question than a certainty based on his career to date. I don’t see him ever being a Bell like power hitter, but if he can hit .275-.280 and hit 15 HRs and drive in 70-80 runs and play acceptable defense at third, the Pirates will be fortunate and certainly happy with those results.

jaygray007

This is probably an unpopular, but not indefensible take.

I’d need to read a good report of Frazier’s defense before i decide if i agree or disagree with you.

i’m also learning that i have a bias toward lefty hitters, especially at the positions where you need to throw right handed.

Blaine Huff

You want to research before having an opinion?

That’s not how things are done here!

🙂

mitch t

Agreed. I cant get over how many people think Frazier was some golden prospect… he has never put up big numbers in the minors and he figures to be a corner OF. BIG WHOOP! I think Moran is a younger Freese, which is valuable if your team has the older Freese as yiur starting 3B. Two years ago Musgrove was Chance Adams. Facing MLB hitters takes a lot of bloom off the rose.

Rob W

I feel kind of excited for some more potential lefty power. Is that silly?

loehr22

Not at all

Daryl Restly

The thing I think most people are forgetting is that the Pirates also have the money ($6.75 million minus the salaries for Moran, Musgrove and Feliz) they would have paid Cole had they retained him. Assuming that Kang is out of the picture forever, and we did not pick up Chris Stewart’s option and Jaso isn’t returning, are there any free agents to be had that the Pirates should make a run at, even if it’s only a one year deal. I think Tim makes an excellent point. We still don’t really know if the Pirates are going full rebuild mode, given the return we’ve gotten from the Cole trade or if they are simply retooling.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

Given the Pirates recent history, what makes you think they will re-invest those “savings” into the 2018 roster? I’m not being smart, but asking a serious question. If they sign a FA who is more than yet another reclamation project or utility player, I will be shocked.

Stephen Brooks

Lance Lynn.

ronnyberry

I agree – Lance Lynn

Darkstone42

Deal Nova and give that rotation spot to Lynn. It’d be a real solid move for 2019 and 2020.

Blaine Huff

Lynn I’m not thrilled with…but the idea of trading Nova and signing Lynn has appeal. Lynn is a better pitcher and, the way the market seems to going, I think is going to settle for below initial projections.

Assuming he could be gotten for about $4M more than Nova, that puts the Pirates at about $88M (by my estimates)….if they would commit to a payroll of $105, that leaves a lot of wriggle room.

Micbg77

Seems like all they got were 3 guys who could be on the Opening Day roster and one other who is a few years away. No real significant upside with any of these guys but Musgrove might be the kind of pitcher Searage likes to work with since he has a decent sinker, but can a guy like that succeed in this fly ball era? If Moran can produce some power like he started to last year, this trade might look good down the line. I like the idea of potentially having Feliz at the back of the bullpen, but like you said there are a lot of “ifs” with this deal.

Disappointing that there was no top prospect but a lot of what I have read says that teams like the Astros have no need to part with top prospects based on their depth and the market.

Blaine Huff

I agree…lots of ‘ifs’ in this deal…

…for both sides. Such as, if Cole doesn’t reign in that gopher-ball, he may top 40 allowed considering he will be pitching half his games at MMP.

Personally, I think Cole will be fine and flourish, but there’s also a real chance this deal turns out to be embarrassing for Houston.

cabbo80

Sad day as a Pirate fan. Number one draft pick whom we nurtured into our go to man. No matter his numbers when he pitched I made sure I watched the game. He was one of the young men we as fans felt empowered the days he took the mound. Some of my best most recent memories are when he and AJ opened the season virtually untouchable as a one two punch, Cole frequently hitting 100 mph. Players we got in return just names and numbers with no real emotions conjured and listless expectations. Go ahead and dump the rest now…mediocrity was the best we attained, now back in the tank with the rest of the fish. Good luck with ticket sales boys…your gonna need it.

loehr22

Only he wasn’t a go to guy. I don’t think I ever felt empowered when he took the mound…..especially last year

cabbo80

You obviously never played.

loehr22

You obviously don’t know your ass from second base

bucsws2014

Astros win WS. They then move to improve going forward.

Pirates have 98 win season, let Happ go, then trade a staring position player for a pitcher far worse than Happ.

But hey, at least the Bucs haven’t had a data breach.

This is the kind of deal where I get a feeling that when MLB isn’t looking, the GMs from the top five markets get together over drinks and make bets on who can do the best job of screwing over the GMs from the bottom five markets.

John W

So take a look at your 2018 dream rotation. Taillon, Kuhl, Musgrove and maybe Glasnow remembers how to pitch.

Huntington should have spent prospect currency when the window was actually open.

But he held tight and now we have the perpetual juggernaut NH and his minions sold us on…

Scott K

Did Pirates trade Williams and Nova while I was at church this morning?

BuccosFanStuckinMD

No, but I hope they trade or dump Nova before the season starts.

Scott K

Considering he’s only SP w more than a couple years experience, I don’t see Pirates dealing Nova.

As for dumping him and his $10 mm salary, which they have to pay whether he pitches this year or not, you’re just being stupid.

John Allen Habel III

Well I will ask the question since no one else has. Does this free up cash to sign McCuthchen to a long term extension. Yes I do expect to be mocked for the question

jaygray007

a cutch extension isn’t really about having the money vs not having the money. I feel like it’s more about being a good idea vs being a bad idea.

Zachary N

To be honest, I was thinking about a cutch extension. The market is not moving on OFers and there will be more big names available next offseason. I think there’s a shot they could sign a 3 year $45m extension and it might be market rate for him.

gwbicster

I have a feeling they will come to an agreement. Cutch will make them a deal they can’t refuse.

I know it’s not rational but I’ve thought this for awhile.

John W

You should not be mocked by my friend but 6.5M is a pittance. They won’t extend Cutch and even if they shed his 14.5M don’t expect to see much done with the money.

TexasBall

Thanks Tim! Nice write-up, just what I expect from PP and the kind of Bucco insight I can’t get anywhere else. I’ve lost my “life and death” passion for the Bucs so I hope this works out, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it didn’t. I still root for them and would like to see this young third baseman pan out.

We live in Texas, saw one of the World Series games in person and could find myself rooting for the ‘stros. Glad to see Coletrain end up there rather than NY or Chicago. Finally, I would appreciate your review of the all-you-can-eat sushi restuarant. We have a place on Lido Key and are always looking for new restaurant recommendations down there!

joe s

To many posts to read them all and I am sure that 70% are negative but this trade seems to fit the Pirate philosophy of getting quantity over quality. It is what they do on the international free agent side as well. Will this trade improve the team, I can not say but I will give it time to prove its worth. Remember Neil got a 5 year renewal and the owner will never waste money by firing and replacing him, so the fan base is stuck with him and what he does. So lets learn to roll with the punches.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

I agree with you 100% – and how has the “quantity over quality” philosophy worked so far? Especially in the international FA market?

Francis G

Sort of reminds me of the return in the Jason Bay trade.

Blaine Huff

That’s a fair assessment, I think…but also not a negative one.

The experts were clamoring the Pirates won that deal because they got LaRoche. He didn’t pan out…oops, it happens.

Moran is in much the same boat, if the adjustments he made are transferable to MLB, he has the potential to make this a win for the Pirates regardless of what becomes of the other three guys. If he flops…the Pirates got two BP arms and a bench piece…probably not enough, in that case.

Bill W

I am optimistic that it might be.

Catch22

You just knew this was going to be a shit show in here….To me, Tim is undervaluing Musgrove. Former top 100 pitcher with good stuff, I think he can out pitch Cole’s 2017. I’m not sold on Moran at all, love the potential of Feliz, Rivero in the backend. This BP has some real upside with Rivero, Feliz, Neverauskas and Santana. Heard that Whitley and Tucker were not options, same with Torres, Florial, Anduar, Sheffield. Heard it was either Adams or Frazier. Don’t hate the trade, but I feel they should’ve held out ’til the deadline.

Smokinjoe

Deadline deal or so 2017 Verlander from Detroit to Astros, compared to Cole being traded now….Who got the better of the talent?

Blaine Huff

Pretty substantial false equivalency here…Verlander is a clearly a superior pitcher to Cole. Insinuating the returns for them should be equal is either undervaluing one or overvaluing the other.

As to who made out better in the deals…the Pirates or Tigers…as none of the players acquired from the Astros have seen MLB time with their new teams, proclaiming winners/losers is a tad bit premature.

Smokinjoe

Not by many of the posters here. They expected a king’s ransom for a pitcher who is < Verlander. MY comment was to show that the return for Cole was for me as good as the Tigers return for Verlander.

Blaine Huff

Ah, then I misread…I thought you were arguing the Pirates should have gotten an equivalent return. My mistake.

PieRat

Cole is getting paid a lot less than verlander so it equals out value

gwbicster

Verlander was also owed a shitload of money. That’s a huge liability.

Blaine Huff

A shitload? With Detroit kicking in cash, Houston picked up a guy who just finished second in Cy Young voting, while leading the league in K’s, and whose worst season WAR in 12 years had been 2.8..all that for 2/40. Relatively speaking, that’s pretty far from a shitload.

rphbuc

Whether it’s Neal, Coonley, Nutting or the ownership group, the goal of the Pirates is to contend for the playoffs every year. That inherently means minimizing risk — going for a quantity of ML ready players. That means no strip down ala ChiSox, Cubs, Astros, Phillies, etc. That means we will be disappointed with the majority of their deals. If the draft and FA signings don’t turn into home runs, it also means we may be a 75-85 win team most every year like the Rays. Welcome to “no man’s land.” Compared to 20 losing seasons, this is a better alternative. I think, however, that I’d rather push all the chips in to compete seriously for a WS for 3 years then face 5 really lean years as we strip it down and rebuild. An example would be DBacks signing JD to see how that works then blow it up and start over in a few years.
Also, saw on MLBTR that the Yanks offered one of Adams or Frazier and Torres, Andujar, Sheffield and Florian were not on the table. If that truly was the market, we did well to get three guys that have carried top 100 prospect status.

John W

I don’t do Twitter but read Tim says something on his feed and it makes sense. One of the many problems with this deal is settling on guys that are either in MLB or MLB ready. Teams like the Pirates should be targeting elite talent even if it is GCL or low A variety and 3-4 years away. The problem is they probably aren’t talented enough to properly assess talent (that already has huge error bars due to the youth of the players) This would be a difficult job for even the best scouts let alone the Pirates. But the primary point is targeting and trading for players who profile as MLB average regulars at best isn’t going to get this club anywhere.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

Nail on head – that is exactly what I stated yesterday….they should have gone for younger, but higher potential ceiling prospects – based on their body of work to date, it is highly unlikely that any of the 4 players they got will ever be difference makers in the ML….they more likely to be role players at best.

Smokinjoe

Problem with targeting elite talent is you have to offer same in order to get that elite talent. Cole, McCutchen or Harrison are NOT elite talent, good but not elite.

John W

Ummm, Gerrit Cole has 50M surplus value- that is a fact and not a matter of opinion based upon projected WAR and ARB- that is more than enough to get some potential low level talent that has NOT broken out yet. The problem is.. you need to have some pretty damn scouts based upon projecting tools. And there’s nothing to suggest the Pirates have such scouts.

Smokinjoe

“Gerrit Cole has 50M surplus value- that is a fact and not a matter of opinion based upon projected WAR and ARB”.

Not sure what that means, but providing something other than this to support this, makes it a fact, as it is now reads more like hearsay.

beaverjp

3warX$9m/ war -$6.75m arb, $10m or less in ’19- 4or5 war adds on another $20m.

Blaine Huff

Guesstimating the value is tricky…if you go with 4/season, $50M surplus is realistic. Of course, he’s averaged 2.8 the last two seasons…so slapping a supposed 4 on him might seem a little ambitious. Using the average of ’16/’17…meh, he’s probably sitting at $35ish surplus.

Personally, I think Cole will flourish in Houston. He’ll be slotted into a rotation where he won’t have to be the staff ace…heck, he’ll be their #3 at best. A solid team, lots of depth, tons of offense…if Cole stayed in Pittsburgh for ’18, I would have pegged him to improve on the HRs and put up about 3.5-4 WAR…in Houston and if healthy, I think 4-4.3 will be his floor.

Smokinjoe

Sorry….but that’s not facts it’s some math to try and quantify a human and it’s filled with if’s…..

John W

Ummm… what is your suggestion for a starting point to discern a reasonable approximation of Cole’s value?

Smokinjoe

How about last year, you are only as good as your last year and take that assumption forward not some fairy tale expectation. Bottom line Cole is trending down, and his saving grace is his years left before FA.

Joseph Willis

Looks Like we weren’t being offered anything close from either team as we were reading and most names we heard were off limits. From Jerry Crasnickof ESPN so this looks like the best offer with some impact now and later and some upside

Smokinjoe

Geez…I keep reading about how great or what a superstar Cole is…Seriously, he peaked 2015 and has and is a diminished pitcher that was never going to get top level prospects that were bandy around. Reference who did better Detroit and their trade of Verlander(a true ACE) or Pirates with their trade of Cole(not a true ACE) to Astros.

For me honestly the Pirates will be better without him and then with him as time goes on. Also, for my money I think the Pirates messed up Cole with the way they handled him. Just my opinion.

juniorkrz

I could very well be wrong, but this trade looks like a salary dump. If Cole’s stock was down this much, the FO office should have let him rebuild his value and traded him at the deadline. This trade does not improve the team’s chances of competing for a playoff berth.

PikeBishop65

Cole was still in arbitration it’s not like he was getting paid Cutch money!

juniorkrz

You are forgetting who owns this team. $6.75M is a lot of money for Nutting. Perhaps, NH was given a payroll number and the easiest/best way he could get there was to trade Cole. Not excited at all about the return.

BucsStopHere

Better to either not trade Cole at all until July or get one bonafide ready player like Clint Frazier than four question marks. Even if it works out, it’s a bad trade when the Pirates traded for hope and potential.

Scott K

Moran is as ready as Frazier, and in Pittsburgh, he may prove to be more valuable since he’s a lefty playing 3B.

michael schalke

All prospects are hope and potential

jaygray007

How have we all been so convinced that Clint Frazier is some sure thing?

thecrow124

How did we all convince ourselves that 2018 Gerrit Cole is still 2015 Gerrit Cole? He isn’t, and he was trending down.

BigB2323

Dream about that back end of the Pen. Rivero, Feliz, Burdi, Neverauskas, Santana

Steve Zielinski

The Astros acquired the best player in this trade. The Pirates acquired two longshot prospects and two bullpen pitchers. Superstars, like Cole may be once again, turn good teams into championship contenders. So, the Pirates made their organization weaker with this trade.

The Pirates need Moran to to become a 3-win third baseman, the bullpen pitchers to succeed and Taillon and Glasnow to step up the production. These outcomes would make Huntington look like a genius. Right at this moment, he looks like a GM who got fleeced.

leefoo

Cole was a super star in only one year. Other than that, he was barely above average (using ERA +).

But, I do think NH got fleeced.

Steve Zielinski

Responding to your edited insertion: Cole has the 18th lowest FIP among qualified starting pitchers during his time in the ML. That’s better than ‘barely above average.’ The FG database includes 176 pitchers in its qualified SP list.

Steve Zielinski

Read closely: I claimed Cole may return to SS form. The talent is there.

thecrow124

Where? What about him makes you believe that?

Steve Zielinski

Fastball SITS at 95 mph and peaks at 100 mph; has an excellent slider; has adequate control; has an adequate changeup. He has a 70-80 FB, a 70 slider, a 55 CU and command. He needs to use his slider more often.

thecrow124

Thank you Ray Searage. He may be better than his numbers would indicate, but after 5 years of history, I tend to believe he is what he is, way to hit table. That being said, I could see him needing some sort of surgery before this season is up.

Steve Zielinski

That history includes a 5-win season. His 2017 season mimicked his 2015 5-win season save for his elevated HR rate, and this was an outlier when compared to his whole carrer.

thecrow124

2015 was an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Every other season, including the minors and college, he has been average. As fans, we just got enamored with his 100mph fastball and 5 pitch arsenal. None of which turned into anything better than a 60.

Steve Zielinski

Well, I disagree. The numbers back up my c,aims.

thecrow124

What numbers? His ERA+ outside of 2015 is consistently around 100. His FIP has gone up every year since 2015. Everything points to him being in decline.

I would not be surprised if he is injured. But his numbers point to him being an average pitcher.

Steve Zielinski

His FIP ranks 18th out of all qualified starters during the time he’s been in the league. His 2017 season was marred by an elevated HR rate that now appears to be noise and will remain so unless it becomes an enduring feature of his profile. Finally, even the Astros and Yankees thought enough of Cole to trade a bundle of second teir prospects and young MLers for him. What they did not do was to treat him like a Chris Sale. The issue with Cole is not whether he’s mediocre, but whether he’ll reach his ceiling for the Astros. If he does, then the Cole trade as it now stands will be a enormous blunder for the Pirates.

Smokinjoe

Evaluation: Entering draft Fastball flat and hittable.

Steve Zielinski

Evolution: Cole’s 2015 season, which was nearly identical to his 2017 season except for the high HR rate in 2017, an outlier compared to his ML career.

BigB2323

Tim, Why such a low review of Musgrove? Have you looked at his Minor league stats compared to Jameson Taillon. It’s going to surprise you. Musgrove stuff is very solid as well. Would not surprise me he turns into a solid #3 starter.

leefoo

He doesn’t have a 3rd pitch, and, at the moment he profiles more as a bullpen piece.

. Joe Musgrove was far more effective in 2017 as a reliever (1.44 ERA, with opponents hitting .196/.244/.321) than as a starter (6.12 ERA, .306/.356/.526). He doesn’t have the third pitch to start and his fastball is much more effective when he can amp it up in a relief role. The Pirates may start him, but there’s scant reason to think he’ll be good enough to do it.

Smokinjoe

Andrew Miller!!!!! like….

Brian Bernard

Although I’m frustrated with the return for Gerrit I think it’s more frustrating that after following all the hype and hope of Cole to the majors – and then adjust to the majors- a 6 year journey he’s gone before we get to see the rose bloom.
What a jyp.

PikeBishop65

or the more likely prospect some deep pockets team signs him to a six year deal next year to make 30 million a year while he declines.

Smokinjoe

Some roses just die before blooming..

st1300b

My point is with Cutch and other prospects you get the second contract with a few arbitration years.
Picking a Boras client you can forget the extension so maybe second guess those prospects.

GreenWeenie

I’ll admit my ignorance when it comes to the baseball analytics. I defer to Tim and many of you and appreciate the info provided. I’m not crazy about this trade. Maybe I’m wrong, but I would have liked Moran, a higher upside prospect, and the outfielder we got…..no fourth piece. Was that too much to ask? Moran gives us a major League ready 3B where we lack depth. We lack outfield depth and we desperately need more star power. Am I off base? I’ve been watching this team for a long time. Not feeling the motivation to keep investing my dollars into them.

leefoo

From everything that I’ve ready, we got 2 maybe 3 usable parts, but no star power.

leefoo

I am hard pressed to find any ‘expert’ (or even NON expert, lol) who likes this deal.

Keith Law summed up my thoughts:

So at the moment, at least, it appears that the Pirates got two relievers for the major league bullpen, an everyday (average) third baseman and a left-field prospect who will start in Double-A but has to hit more to profile as a regular.

If Cole had been healthy and effective the past two years, we’re probably talking about an Andrew Miller/Chris Sale sort of package, but the 2016-17 seasons appear to have dented Cole’s trade value significantly.

Darkstone42

I have to wonder how much his 2016 shoulder trouble, in particular, played into a value reduction. Shoulders are notoriously finicky injuries for pitchers, with a high recurrence rate. The performance the past two years–last year’s long ball trouble in particular–likely dented his value a bit, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was the shoulder injury which really drove down his value.

leefoo

I thought it was elbow issues. But either way, outside of that 2015 season, he never developed into anything more than a middle of the rotation innings eater. Which is valuable, but won’t bring a huge return.

Sigh….

Darkstone42

Yes, 2016 was elbow. That’s right. He had a shoulder injury in 2014.

domdidominic

Here is what most are missing….. What did we actually have in Cole? When the idea the team could make a wild card run last year, around mid-season, everyone wanted Nova to start that game. Later in the season it was clear that Taillon would be the guy. Even Kuhl was showing some nasty stuff toward the late end of the season.
Fans had little confidence that Cole could be a #1 . Pretty sure that is where Huntington had him-not stepping up to the be ace. Not sure that with Cole the 2018 team would be any closer to a playoff run.
Agree that we are till in No Mans Land. That is mostly because we just lost a #2 or #3 guy for a starting 3B and a couple of arms that could really help.
Deal = Meh. About what Cole had be doing the last couple years.

beaverjp

Basically how much does Neal wager that Cole is >4 war in the next two seasons WITH THE PIRATES. It says a lot that Cashman wasn’t offering more when he had so much excess in that system- if you think NH is getting throttled by the fans it’s probably far worse in NY. It seems like the Pirates missed the overpay bus.

leefoo

I posted something on here about Lance Lynn being better than him (outside of that 2015 season). Take that year out and he has only been slightly above average.

tmcgowan

The way I would say is they went to a steakhouse with a gift card and filled up on potatoes, veggies, a bottle of wine and a dessert. All of which are fine in their own right but not what you want or expect when heading to a steakhouse on a fixed dollar amount. Doesn’t mean that I don’t like those things though but not a memorable meal

Ron Zorn

Hey John or Tim, can you get us an article on how the Astros side felt about these guys?

leefoo

Here is a Bucs Dugout/Astro version. Most seem to think that the Astros gave nothing up.

https://www.crawfishboxes.com/2018/1/13/16889106/astros-trade-for-pirates-pitcher-gerrit-cole

Smokinjoe

All Trades need to be judged based on how the players actually play and not based on home town bias. 2018 will be interesting for the 3 that are on the Pirates and let’s just see what they can and can not do. Please leave the metrics in the closet until Oct 2018 for them

BTW I would expect that Cole will be better, because of his playing with Verlander.

Scott K

Would love to see an article detailing changes Moran made to his swing with video and analysis, including Moran’s own take.

Clearly Pirates believe Moran has turned himself into a much better hitter last year. This trade will live or die based on it.

Scott K

Exactly why I, and many others, pay to read your stuff.

rickmontgomery

We won’t know for two years who “won” this trade. What if the Astros got the 2017 Cole and he never again regains TOR form? What if Moran hits .280 with 20 hrs? Lots of what-ifs. Take a deep breath everyone. It should be an interesting year.

Blaine Huff

Spot on.

Opinions on trades are fine, but mine, yours, and everyone else’s is just an educated guess. Heck, the initial reactions to the Bay trade were that the Pirates clearly won the exchange.

The Pirates appear to have just solidified their bullpen and got their starting third baseman…now, let’s see how good these guys are.

mike_carlini66

You are right Rick, but the initial look of this trade is very suspect at best. Then again, I didn’t like what the Pirates got in the Malancen return. SOOO, what the fuck do I know?!

mike_carlini66

There are a lot of comments on here so I don’t know if anyone else has mentioned this but the A’s got 3 top 100 prospects for Sonny Gray and we get……..THIS!? Excuse me for being pessimistic

David N

If Moran turns out to be as good an acquisition as Kang in the first year and a half before his injury, would we be satisfied with that?

rjgrinde

“This fan base” complained about the Liriano deal every day for a whole year because, while everyone who followed baseball knew it was a pure salty dump, Our trusty and loyal GM insisted on insulting the intelligence of “this fan base” by repeating that the deal was made for Hutchison. Even if that were true, then that would mean we have a drunk toddler asleep behind the wheel.

Adding insult to injury is never a good tactic in any matter, let alone in public relations. Which, obviously has to matter otherwise why lie about a blatant salary dump to your fan base repeatedly? as a fan, I would have much rather preferred it if NH stepped up to the podium, jumped up on that little stool they have for him so he can reach the microphone and, told everyone the honest truth like a man. Instead he insisted on trying to convince everyone (himself included I’m sure) that he did not trade two top prospects and, a lefty starter with the potential to help a team win a World Series that year for 17 million dollars in salary relief.

“No, no, guys I wouldn’t do that, for salary relief?……No, no way guys. I traded all that talent for Drew Hutchison. He is interesting and has pitched in Majors, kind of. Sure he pitches like a burning trash can with a right arm but…..he is interesting at least….you guys cool? No?”

So yea all the lying and losing of prospects that never seemed to get moved to actually improve the team (certainly if taking on salary for the improvement was involved) kinda naturally pissed “this fan base” off.

Adding to the shit stew, let us not forget to add a 1/4 cup of utterly embarrassing miscalculations like the Walker for Niese deal. With a 1/2 tsp of a Sam’s Club Latin American scouting strategy that had clearly stagnated (but, at least it was cheap and it’s not like a lot of teams depend on the Latin market for talent right?) Oh, and the secret ingredient, just a pinch of the persistent pursuit of prep players with our high draft selections (who could of guessed they would be so unpredictable and prone to injury?). Something is missing, what is it? Oh yea, NH adjusted the receipe recently to get that classic bullshit aroma we almost forgot. The last ingredient, 1 cup of the inexplicable inability to receive a proper return for a young, top of the rotation starting pitcher who is making peanuts with 2 years of control left and, was the second runner up for the NL Cy Young award just a couple years ago.

Now its ready for this once passionate fan base to injest while we hold our collective nose and try not to dry heave. We don’t want eat too fast though, we are still in “No mans land” more ingredients I am sure will be added shortly. Enjoy!

BigB2323

“Traded all that talent” where is all that talent at now and how are they all doing?

BuccosFanStuckinMD

Don’t forget the Nicasio humiliation of last year…that alone should have gotten NH fired, instead he is given 4 year extension – that is an organization that settles on mediocrity.

loehr22

Is this the recipe that produces a “salty dump”?

tempman89

My only problem is Musgrove. We have so many of these arms in the system already. This arm should have been Martes. Higher end arm. Unless we trade Nova, which I believe is unlikely

Darkstone42

Regarding the direction of the team informed by the trade:

This was the right way to go. We have a wave of prospects due in 2019. Having three possible good contributors on the team in 2018, getting familiar with the coaching staff, the park, and–in Moran’s case–the Majors will allow those guys to be at their best when potential impact guys like Keller, Meadows and Tucker arrive, and solid other pieces like Newman and Kramer get here, too. If Moran works out, and Musgrove and Feliz make the bullpen dominant, then this team could be very good again in 2019 and 2020.

To that end, if the team can land a solid Major League ready young catcher or catching prospect in a McCutchen trade, they’ll be in a really good spot moving forward.

PieRat

They really didn’t get any high ceilling guys. NH negotiated from a point of weakness. Everyone in baseball thought he was worth a top prospect. None of those players will even be in the Pirates top 10 prospects. Quantity doesn’t matter, you can only have 9 on field at one time. Probably looking at another losing season. Anytime in sports you play not to lose instead of trying to win, you usually lose.

BigB2323

Musgrove and Feliz are no longer prospect eligible. Again, Musgrove was ranked the #32 prospects in all of baseball in 2016. Stop acting like he’s nothing.

Darkstone42

I can’t think of 10 guys in the Pirates’ system I would definitely rank ahead of Moran. Keller and Meadows are the only two I’d for sure put ahead of him. Tucker and Hayes have higher upsides, but a lot more risk than Moran, but ultimately I’d rank him right behind them and in a virtual tie with Newman.

PieRat

They are ranked lower already. Look at top 100.

Darkstone42

Regarding Moran:

Aside from a rough year in 2016, his K% have been consistently below 19%, and most recently, was only 16%, and he’s almost always hit for averages around .300. His LD% has been typically pretty high, and always above 23% since reaching AA. In limited action in the Majors, his Hard% has been 28% with a Soft% of 16%.

All of this tells me he has a skill for contact, and good contact at that. So the only thing ever holding him back was power.

Last season was the first time he posted a GB/FB ratio <1. That's a significant development. Now he's a player who hits the ball hard, and hits the ball hard in the air, who still draws walks and doesn't strike out a ton. That's a good hitter. Regressing his ISO to .180, he's still about an .850 OPS guy at 3B. That's an above-average regular even with below-average defense. Probably a 3-4 WAR player right away.

If he becomes that, trading two years of Cole for five or six years of that was a fair trade. If we get two dominant back of the bullpen arms at the same time, then it's clearly a good move.

Darkstone42

Looking for comps, because comps are fun, I could see Moran turning into 2017 Travis Shaw.

I’d be pretty happy with 2017 Travis Shaw being the Pirates’ third baseman. Upside of Justin Turner or Anthony Rendon (minus the defense) in a high-BABIP year.

leefoo

I wish that I could share your optimism, but I hope you are proven correct.

Darkstone42

I think I’m especially high on Moran because he’s an example of actually doing the thing we’ve been waiting on most of our best hitting prospects to do–translating a very good contact skill into power production by lofting his swing.

jaygray007

The more I read about Moran, the more I like him.

I doubt he will ever hit lefties, but as a legit strong platoon option? I’m starting to believe.

Darkstone42

Does he have trouble with lefties? I haven’t seen anything so far to suggest he does.

jaygray007

he has some pretty clear platoon splits. Maybe i’m just trying to keep expectations low, just for my own sanity.

in AAA last year, his OPS vs righties was in the high .900s, and his OPS vs lefties was in the high .700s. He was bad against both in 2016. In 2015 in AA, he OPS’d 926 vs righties and .607 vs lefties.

maybe he’ll be able to OPS in the mid .700s vs lefties in the majors and not have to be platooned, but i doubt it.

he’d hardly be the first lefty 3b to ever need to be platooned.

Regardless, he and freese should compliment each other pretty well!

Darkstone42

If the swing adjustment he made last season allowed him to hit lefties better in addition to adding power as the numbers seem to suggest, he may prove to not need a platoon partner at all. Though Freese will likely still get some starts on days when lefties pitch, alternating spelling Moran and Bell, either way, just because Freese is so good against lefties.

piraddict

Tim, I would love to see your total expected WAR analysis for this deal. Two years of Cole versus the sum of the products of years of control times expected WAR from Moran, Musgrove and Feliz. Leave Martin out, figuring he busts. I’ll bet that the WAR scales tip in favor of the Bucs.

PieRat

You can’t count the total WAR to evaluate the trade. You can only put 9 players on the field. If it was an actual war, more might be better. The Pirates need quality those players aren’t better than what they already have.

piraddict

Can’t agree with your comment about quality of new players being less than what they replaced. I expect the upgrade of Moran over Freese and Musgrove and Feliz over whoever they replace in the bullpen will exceed the drop in WAR from Cole to his replacement on the starting staff.

DM

Well yeah the WAR scales better favor the Bucs. But the opportunity cost of these guys racking up 0.8 WAR seasons doesn’t make it more valuable to the Pirates even they end up combining for, say, 12-15 total WAR compared to Cole’s 7 or so in Houston. Especially if the majority of that WAR would come from the bullpen, the one area in which you should most be able to create basically free talent.

Basically, you need a couple 5-6 WAR players, and I just don’t know where those are coming from in this org.

piraddict

Good chance that Moran is a 10 WAR player over his full prearb and arbitration years. The two relievers probably add 4 WAR between them if they stay for their full careers. Your guess of 7 WAR for Cole is optimistic but probably okay. So Bucs win 2 to 1.

rich

Piggy-backing off of Tim’s analysis and some prospect lists I have seen, I would have liked the trade better if it didn’t include Musgrove. I have two different but slightly modified (yet still realistic) versions:

1. Future oriented: Keep Moran, and Feliz but replace Musgrove and Martin with a young, higher rated/higher ceiling prospect
2. Present oriented: Keep Moran, Feliz, and Martin but replace Musgrove with the originally reported Derek Fisher – this might also help in filling the Cutch gap if traded.

BigB2323

Fisher was reportedly off limits. All those reports we’ve seen have been 90% wrong the whole time. The Cole and Harrison for frazier Andujar and Adams was a joke. Yankees offered Frazier OR Adams! And two filler prospects. Andujar was off limits. That’s the main reason why everyone is bitching about this trade return because that’s what “national pundits” filled our head with.

Thom

In 2016, Musgrove, Feliz, and Moran were all in the BA’s Top 10 prospect list for the Astros. Since then, Musgrove and Feliz have pitched some good MLB innings, and they are still young with a lot of years of cheap control.
I have no problem with re-loading with young, controllable, MLB ready players. Obviously we all wanted Kyle Tucker, and I’m not a huge fan of Moran and Martin because of their gloves. But I actually prefer this to just a bunch of toolsy long shots who might not even make it to Pittsburgh.

EWS34

I was expecting an outfielder in this trade to enable them to trade Cutch. That’s the biggest surprise to me. I was hoping Moran was part of the package but was hoping for a second piece better than him. It will be interesting to read the national expert feedback on this trade.

rich

So far the initial takes have been bad

jaygray007

Stab at a june lineup and bench….

LF Meadows
CF Marte
RF Polanco
3b Moran
SS Mercer
2b Moroff
1b Bell
C Cervelli

Bench… Freese platoons with Moran, Luplow spells Meadows and Polanco vs righties, Diaz, Frazier, SeanRod

But the pirates… if the deal Harrison and Cutch… will have a payroll of like 65 million… they really might as well spend up to 100 million.

If i was GM with that roster, i’d deal for Machado for SS (god knows they’d have plenty of prospects at that point) and sign Lucroy and make the damn playoffs, tbh.

cpolen350

HATED Lucroy when he was a Brewer. He killed us. Would love to see him as a Pirate. We need a good veteran catcher that can handle the staff, be a leader, hit a little…. Cervelli just……doesn’t do it for me. (My wife really digs him though!)

Wabbit_Season

Cpolen… It’s those puppy-dog eyes of his…

good lord…

-Wabbit

cmat0829

He’s a horrible defensive catcher.

jaygray007

honest question. what are you basing that on?

Darkstone42

He’s regressed significantly on both sides of the plate the last two years. You could bet on him bouncing back, but he’s an aging catcher, and those aren’t great bounceback candidates.

jaygray007

clearly he had a not-great year with the bat.

but what says that his defense was bad? i cant imagine any of us watched a ton of Rockies and Rangers baseball.

regardless, the team i had proposed was running out of places to throw money at. a double-barreled catcher attack was one of the only things that made sense, and a short term deal to Lucroy seems at least possible.

jaygray007

Lucroy is handsome too, so everybody wins. Except for Elias Diaz fans I guess.

loehr22

Mine does too, lol

juniorkrz

Unfortunately, he’s my wife’s favorite player as well.

beaverjp

I preferred the Meadows/Luplow approach vs popping Frazier into the mix. I was thinking why not take a run at Profar

jaygray007

Yeah the love affair with Frazier is kinda weird.

he’s gonna be a fine big leaguer, but i just can’t look at his numbers and see a future star.

not that i necessarily think Musgrove, Feliz, or Moran are gonna be stars, because i dont. but the fixation on Frazier is a tiny bit weird. not that weird. but a little.

juniorkrz

He’s a nice bench piece, but yeah I cannot understand the love affair.

beaverjp

Florial was the real deal Cashman was just trying to offload Frazier.. I’m *ok* with the return.

rich

I think those evaluators will be wrong about his power when the lefty swinging Martin arrives at PNC Park.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

And this assessment is based on what?

buccotime57

Don’t forget Moran would have seen more playing time last year if he wouldn’t have had a facial fracture. Either way I was tired of seeing Cole out there looking disinterested every five days.

rich

I feel that there is a disconnect between Moran’s stats in AA and AAA. He seemed to very well the past three years yet nobody is impressed and the baseball America link labeled his career as “up and down.”

jaygray007

I’m not totally sure that Musgrove doesnt get enough credit. Velocity, strikeouts, and hardly any walks. What’s not to like?

rich

No swing and miss pitch.

BigB2323

His breaking ball from the highlights I’ve seen looks pretty damn good. Go watch him on YouTube.

jaygray007

i get what you’re saying, but his strikeout numbers disagree

rich

That’s true although he is “down” to 8/inning. I am always psyched when I see a pitcher throwing 5 or 6 different pitches. At first it makes me think they are true professionals at their craft, and then it occurs to me that they are probably relying on surprise rather than effective pitches. Just a guess mind you…

Y2JGQ2

Good article Tim- my thought is- Cole is NOT the first man traded if we are planning on staying in no mans land. What this does, it keeps us from being FORCED to trade Cutch. Its still the best idea, but…..Moran is enough of an upgrade vs. Freese that he could make up for some of the loss of Cole to whomever takes his place. Maybe you deal Nova too, and Cutch, and Harrison, and Rivero…..but maybe you don’t and the team will still be a .500…… but saves 7 million bucks? Maybe this is a trade with the idea of reloading for 2019/2020 vs. 2022. If that’s the case, I’m okay with that. Pirates fans don’t have enough tradition of winning that we can handle a long rebuild.

BuccosFanStuckinMD
J Nader

**calls someone a snowflake, proceeds to get triggered constantly. Obvious who you voted for

BuccosFanStuckinMD

Well, give me a link or two to anyone who is considered an “expert” or well respected in MLB who thought this trade was a good one from the Pirates side?

BigB2323

Jim Bowden

lfhlaw

interesting thoughts from the houston side of things. Have to wonder, if they had considered Martin before, why not just draft him in the Rule V draft and pay the 50k that just occurred in December? The only difference I guess is that he’d have to be on the 40-man roster vs being able to place him in our minors system. However– even then– wouldn’t he have to eventually come up this year since he’s eligible again for the Rule V draft in 2018?

jaygray007

if they had drafted him in the rule V, they would have to have him in the *major leagues*. not just the 40 man.

BigB2323

Come on Tim, while I don’t agree with BuccoFanStuckInMaryland posts at all, using the word snowflake is not a big deal. I would suggest stop trying to always get politics involved on here and online. It’s not a good business model. I’ve seen seen you rant online about issues you believe in but weren’t actually factually correct like saying someone worked for a website which they did not, or calling someone a neonazi who is actually Jewish and is hated by the extreme right. Just let it go. We know your views are extremely liberal and that’s okay. But I would suggest to only Monitor if someone makes threats or uses actual racist language on here. People are going to be dumb and name call on here but outside of extreme threats or blatant racism I’d let it be.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

I’m sorry Tim, but that is a BIG LOAD of selective crap…I’ve been called far worse on this site and you said and say NOTHING……snowflakes are people who cannot handle other points of view and seek to silence them….you have several on this site.

I would also be happy to give an accounting of the things I’ve been most critical of and an honest assessment of whether I was right or not. You and others belittled and insulted me for my opinions of the Connor Joe draft pick, the Niese trade, the Liriano trade, and numerous others….NH apologists abound, why this team is run into the ground by this incompetent GM.

John W

Fair point- but is it OK to call anyone who defends NH at this point in time a sophist?

Wabbit_Season

“Snowflake” is a pejorative term and says more about the person who uses it than any point the person is making.

It is coded hate speech.

Similar to terms like “democrat party” (the use of democrat in place of democratic) which is listed as a pejorative usage in the AP Stylebook and is not proper reporting style.

Things like this are slurs and they diminish the discourse of those who use them.

-Wabbit

BuccosFanStuckinMD

“coded hate speech”

Well, that is absurd….and I think we’ve identified the first snowflake

juniorkrz

Thank you.

Alejandro M

Keep talking that neo nazi BS and you’ll lose even more subscriptions! Keep your political garbage to yourself and stick to the Pirates, please.

EddieG

It’s even a sadder time that a group of ideologues, actually think that the neo Nazis are relevant in America.

There’s not enough neo Nazis across our country, to fill Beaver Stadium .

Catch22

If I’m Tim, you’d be gone…

Darkstone42

It’s not political garbage; it’s an objectively accurate observation that “snowflake” is a go-to insult of the so-called “Alt-Right” crowd, which is a heavily overtly Neo-Nazi group. Language matters, and terms popularized by hate-groups are best left out of this comment section. And besides any alleged political bent, he’s right, the sentiment and attitude connected with calling people “snowflakes” doesn’t below in a well-moderated forum where people are just trying to enjoy themselves talking about baseball.

Honest to goodness, if Tim loses subscriptions for calling out aggressive, insulting commenting practices, under the guise of him “being political,” I don’t think he’ll be too torn up, and the experience in the comments section will likely be better for everyone else. And besides that, there’s nothing “political” about simply being decent and respectful to one another.

BuccosFanStuckinMD

I’ve been called far worse on this site and Tim never said a word – its called selective outrage. This site used to be good, when it was primarily a site about what its titled – Pirates Prospects. It is now just an apologist site for NH and the organization.

Darkstone42

The things you get called aren’t things being co-opted by hate groups. The things you get called are standard fare I-don’t-like-that-guy names. Like butt. And jerk. And cotton-headed ninny muggins. And the reason you get called anything in the first place is that you’re overtly combative with your posts; you put negativity into the forum, and that’s what you get out.

I mean, unprompted, you just called the commentariate “snowflakes” for no reason. What do you expect? But ultimately, Tim is correct to identify you as the source of combativeness, and Tim is also correct to disapprove of the use of a word being thrown at any marginalized people who have the audacity to speak up for themselves–and anyone who supports them–by the sorts of folks who think they *deserve* to be marginalized.

Just try communicating opinions without being so… angry?… about it. And how hard is it to avoid using *one* word en route to that? Just be decent and respectful and engage in pleasant productive discourse and no one will tell you off. It’s really that simple.

I mean, hell, I tell the worst jokes on the board, but no one hates me because I tell them *respectfully.*

juniorkrz

Amen. You are my new favorite poster. No need to bring politics onto this forum.

loehr22

I’m trying to figure out who he is referring to as a snowflake.

Darkstone42

Me. I’m Frosty the Snowman’s son.

TNBucs

It’s a fair take, and actually makes me feel better about the trade. I do share Tim’s concern that they may still be trying to straddle the line of contending and rebuilding instead of a full rebuild. OTOH, I want a decent team to watch in 2018.

ronnyberry

Here is what I hope they are thinking.
1) They now have a decent option at 3B
2) Musgrove had a 1.41 ERA after he was moved to the pen full time and if they can fix Nunez and turn him into Rivero 2.0, they could have a “super pen” when these two are added to the #5 bullpen in the majors
3) Freeze is traded for “payroll flexibility”
4) They trade McCutchen for some lower level guys with upside. Nothing major, just a hand full of lottery picks.
5) With McCutchen gone, they move Marte to CF
6) They take the $26m in savings and sign Lance Lynn (projected at 4 / $56 or $14 / yr) and Logan Morrison (projected at 3 / $36 or $12 / yr). Lynn slots into Cole’s spot in the rotation and Morrison plays in the OF

Net effect
Cole is replaced by Lynn
McCutchen is replaced by Morrison
Moran settles in at 3B instead of Freeze
Musgrove and Nunez help form a “super pen”

If they want to stay in “no man’s land”, this at least gives them a shot at 88 wins

juniorkrz

Morrison has bad knees, that’s why he has been playing first base. Otherwise, I like the concept. IMO, hold onto Cutch and give him a QO next year if he replicates last season.

Wabbit_Season

Ronnyberry.

I agree with most of what you are saying, specifically about the super pen idea.

I don’t think the Bucs are going to go and buy FA pitchers, but the DO have the cash to do it. Hoping you’re right that they’re going for a quick reload.

-Wabbit

jaygray007

I’m not a Lynn fan, but I like where your head is with the overall strategy. We should all welcome Sharktank 2.0.

There’s no reason they couldn’t still be good this year as long as they spend the same amt of money as last year

rjgrinde

That sounds nice and all (except for the Lance Lynn part, that sounds God awful) but, I do not think signing major league players is in the Pirates scope of work right now. They are focused on slashing payroll because of the recent negative events of the last two seasons. This team is going into hibernation, they just traded away their most valuable trading chip for a bag of potato chips. Their window to trade Cutch closed. Harrison has more value than Cutch does given his versatility but, again, the Pirates have no leverage in the offseason due to their very well known cheapness. The only time the Pirates can be successful with a trade is at the deadline. Cole is gone because his salary was about to go through the roof in arbitration and I am sure NH got the marching orders to get rid of him before arbitration. You can’t hide that from other GMs, the Astros waited until they got the shitty deal they wanted which is insane when you are talking about a top of the rotation, young, controllable, Cy Young finalist, All-Star PITCHER. The PIrates literally pulled essentially the equivalent of the Liriano deal except for less money and 3 more shitty prospects. Oh and we didn’t have to give up 2 of our top prospects to get the deal done…win…but yea this team will not be relevant for another 20 years until they accidentally stumble upon another Andrew McCutchen or they are sold to someone who gives a shit and hires people who actually know what they are doing.

BigB2323

Shitty prospects who 3 of them were all ranked in Top 100 prospect polls at one point or another. Musgrove coming in at #32 in ALL of baseball on baseball americas list in mid season 2016 rankings. But yes I know they are shitty because you probably never seen or heard of them.

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